Applied Optoelectronics analysis: fiber-optic AI data center play, +884% YTD, parabolic breakout to $114, RSI 73 overbought. $250M ATM dilution risk. Grade B+.
| Metric | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (TTM) | $455.7M | +34% YoY — strong data center demand |
| Gross Margin | 30.0% | Decent for hardware, improving trend |
| Operating Margin | -8.6% | Still burning cash operationally |
| Net Margin | -8.4% | Unprofitable — losses narrowing |
| ROE | -7.9% | Negative return on equity |
| ROA | -4.0% | Negative return on assets |
| Cash | $206M | Decent cash position |
| Total Debt | $248M | Net debt ~$42M |
| Book Value/Share | $14.00 | Trading at 10.5x book |
| EV/Revenue | 23.0x | Extremely stretched — up from 15.9x |
| Analyst Target | $77.30 | -47% below current price — extreme disconnect |
| Recommendation | Buy | Consensus rating (pre-run) |
| Q1 2025 | -$0.02 | -$0.04 |
| Q2 2025 | -$0.16 | -$0.07 |
| Q3 2025 | -$0.09 | -$0.09 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.01 | -$0.11 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.07 | Miss vs -$0.048 est |
| Holder | % | Role |
|---|---|---|
| Elizabeth G. Loboa | Director | 102,347 sold |
| Cynthia DeLaney | Director | 21,000 sold |
| Richard B. Black | Director | 3,231 sold |
| Stefan J. Murry | CFO | 24,000 sold |
| David C. Kuo | Executive | 44,500 sold |
| RSI (14) | 43.2 |
| EMA 20 | $169.93 |
| EMA 50 | $161.12 |
| EMA 200 | $97.68 |
| MACD | -3.740 |
| Signal | 0.730 |
| ATR (14) | $22.48 |
Price below EMA20 ($170) and EMA50 ($161) after 37% pullback from $234 ATH. RSI 43 neutral (down from 73 overbought). MACD bearish crossover. ATR $22.48 implies high daily volatility. Support at EMA200 ($97.68).
| Ticker | Name | Price | P/E | YTD | MCap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Applied Optoelectronics | AAOI | $6.8B | +34% | 30% | 14.9x |
| Coherent Corp | COHR | $18B | +27% | 38% | 3.7x |
| Lumentum Holdings | LITE | $10B | +18% | 42% | 5.5x |
| Ciena Corporation | CIEN | $11B | +12% | 45% | 2.8x |
| II-VI / MKS Instruments | MKSI | $8B | +8% | 40% | 2.3x |
Positioning: follower
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| AI Capex Cycle | Hyperscaler capex $200B+ in 2026 | Primary demand driver — directly benefits optical interconnect |
| Interest Rates | Fed funds ~4.5% | High rates pressure unprofitable growth stocks |
| Beta (3.27) | Extremely high | 3.27x market volatility — amplifies all moves |
| Trade Policy | Tariff uncertainty (US-China) | Manufacturing in Taiwan & China exposes to tariff risk |
| Semiconductor Cycle | Expansionary phase | Optical components ride the semiconductor upcycle |
| SPY Correlation | 0.05 | Largely decoupled from broad market |
Regime: neutral
This analysis is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or solicitation to buy or sell any security.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Always conduct your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Data sourced from DailyTickers Gateway, Yahoo Finance, SEC EDGAR, and public market data. Accuracy is not guaranteed.