AerCap is the world's largest aircraft lessor at 8.5x forward earnings, and it keeps doing the two things the market pays for: beating estimates (six consecutive quarters, the July 29 print by 30%) and shrinking the share count ($1.4B repurchased year to date). Management raised full-year EPS guidance to roughly $16.80 at the last report. The aircraft shortage does the heavy lifting: lease rates keep repricing higher while the order book is sold out for years. Two things keep this at A- instead of A+. The stock sits within 1% of its 52-week high, so a fresh buyer at 155 risks more to a sensible stop than the next resistance offers. And the insider tape is loud: fourteen sales and zero buys in ninety days, including the CFO ($11M), the CEO ($7.4M) and a chief accounting officer who sold every directly held share in June (a trust-held balance remains); all before the earnings pop, though part of the spring activity traces to routine RSU vesting rather than discretionary exits. The trade is to let the price come to you at the 150 zone, where the risk/reward flips above 3:1.
| Metric | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (TTM) | $8.68B | Steady |
| EBITDA (TTM) | $4.85B | 56% margin |
| ROE | 22.1% | Elite for leasing |
| Book Value / Share | $119.21 | +16% y/y |
| Price / Book | ~1.30x | Fair for 22% ROE |
| Forward PE | 8.5x | Cheap |
| PEG | 0.80 | GARP |
| Total Debt | $43.1B | Leasing model |
| Dividend Yield | 1.06% | Plus buybacks |
| Analyst Mean Target | $170.89 | Strong buy consensus |
| Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Est. | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 (cal.) | $4.97 | $3.08 | +61% |
| Q4 2025 (cal.) | $3.95 | $3.40 | +16% |
| Q1 2026 (cal.) | $5.39 | $3.71 | +45% |
| Q2 2026 (cal.) | $5.14 | $3.94 | +30% |
Six consecutive beats back through Q1 2025 (the table shows the last four; the older two were checked against the company's releases). The streak is powered by gains on aircraft sales above book value: recurring in a shortage, but lumpy by nature. Next report: October 28. — Next: 2026-10-28
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-12 | Peter Juhas (CFO) | Sell | 76,000 | ~$11.0M at $143.39-146.53, pre-earnings; sale follows the April 30 RSU vest |
| 2026-05-06 | Aengus Kelly (CEO) | Sell | 50,000 | ~$7.4M at $147.59-150.35, same window |
| 2026-06-15 | Chief Accounting Officer | Sell | 11,644 | ~$1.7M at $143.21 avg; direct stake to zero, 13,642 shares remain in company trusts |
14 sales, zero buys in 90 days, all executed below the current price and before the earnings pop. One honest caveat before over-reading it: the window overlaps the spring RSU vesting cycle — part of the CFO block and the CAO sale trace to freshly vested shares, and several of the 14 filings are tax-withholding dispositions rather than discretionary exits. The open-market selling is still real and still one-sided, and the grade loses a notch for it; but the signal is distribution-with-an-asterisk, not a red alert.
Aggressive net reduction: 4.9M shares retired in Q2 2026 alone, over $1.4B repurchased year to date under an active $1B-tranche authorization. For completeness: a universal shelf (Form F-3, automatically effective June 29, 2026) is on file — routine funding plumbing for an investment-grade lessor that constantly issues bonds, and the vehicle GE used for its exit secondaries (completed January 2025). No at-the-market equity program, no convertibles, no warrants; the share count is shrinking, not growing.
Negligible and stable: no bear case is being expressed through the borrow. No squeeze story either.
| RSI (14) | 57.6 |
| EMA 20 | $149.94 |
| EMA 50 | $146.94 |
| EMA 200 | $138.14 |
| MACD | 1.790 |
| Signal | 1.727 |
| ATR (14) | $4.32 |
A clean four-week base between 144.07 and 156.33 sits on top of a rising EMA stack (149.94 > 146.94 > 138.14, MACD positive). The 52-week high was printed on earnings day (July 29) and faded to 148.63 before the price climbed back to the top of the range. That is constructive; but at 155.30 the stock trades 3.6% above its EMA20 with the ceiling 0.7% away. The two clean triggers: a pullback that holds the 149.5-150.5 zone (EMA20), or a confirmed daily close above 156.50 on volume.
No dilution, no debt-wall, no binary event in the window. The risks are softer: insider selling that says the people who know the company best took profits before the print, a guidance-raise habit that mutes each new raise, and the rate sensitivity that comes with a leased balance sheet.
An 8.5x-earnings compounder with six straight beats, a raised guide and a shrinking share count deserves a position, at the right price. Our number is 150: there the stop tucks under the EMA50, roughly one ATR below entry, and the first target pays 3.3 times the risk.
A great company at the wrong spot is a mediocre trade. Put the limit at 150 and leave it alone. An unfilled order costs nothing; chasing 155 with the ceiling 0.7% away costs real money.
This analysis is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or solicitation to buy or sell any security.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Always conduct your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Data sourced from real-time market data, Yahoo Finance, SEC EDGAR, and public market data. Accuracy is not guaranteed.