Grade downgraded from A+ to B+ (20 June 2026). Price ($118.24) has broken below the published stop loss ($120) and both short-term EMAs (EMA20 $123.84, EMA50 $121.05). The bullish EMA stack that supported the original thesis is no longer intact. Fundamentals remain strong but the technical structure is broken; a new entry could be considered near EMA200 ($116.64) with a stop below $112.
Autoliv is the world #1 in passive auto safety (airbags, seatbelts, steering wheels) and is compounding record operating margins while buying back ~4% of its float every year. Four consecutive earnings beats at roughly 10x forward earnings with a 28% ROE make it the cheapest quality-cyclical with the cleanest balance sheet of the group. Price has pulled back -10% from the 52-week high and the technical structure is broken, but the fundamental case remains intact. StockAnalysis· juin 2026
Autoliv is the global #1 supplier of passive safety systems for the automotive industry — airbags, seatbelts, steering wheels and pedestrian-protection systems — holding roughly 40–45% global market share. Headquartered in Stockholm and listed on the NYSE as an ADR, it ships to virtually every major automaker on the planet. Its content is mandated by crash-test ratings and safety regulation, which makes the demand structurally sticky regardless of which brands win or lose in any given model year. Autoliv IR· 2026
The investment story right now is margin self-help, not volume: management has spent two years rationalizing footprint, raising prices to offset inflation and improving mix. The payoff is visible — 2025 operating income crossed $1 billion for the first time, EPS rose above $9, and the company returned more than $3/share in dividends plus aggressive buybacks. Even with global light-vehicle production flat-to-down, Autoliv is growing earnings by expanding the percentage it keeps on every dollar of sales. 8-K FY25 results· jan 2026
| Metric | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (TTM) | $10.99B | +6.8% YoY |
| Net Income (TTM) | $709M | Record |
| EPS (TTM) | $9.30 | >$9 first time |
| Operating Margin | ~8.9% | Expanding |
| ROE | 28.4% | Best-in-class |
| ROA | 8.4% | Solid |
| PEG (fwd) | 0.85 | <1 — cheap growth |
| Net Debt / EBITDA | 1.3x | Moderate |
| Debt / Equity | 0.84x | Healthy |
| Fwd P/E | 9.9x | Value |
| EV / EBITDA | 7.0x | Cheap |
| Dividend Yield | 2.93% | 37% payout |
| Analyst Target | $132.88 | Buy · high $147 |
This is a rare combination: a 28% return on equity trading at ~10x forward earnings and 7.0x EV/EBITDA. The market is pricing Autoliv like a low-quality cyclical, but the returns profile is that of a compounder. Leverage is moderate (Net Debt/EBITDA 1.3x), the dividend is well covered (37% payout), and the buyback (~3.7% of shares retired) mechanically lifts EPS even in a flat-volume world. The one honest caveat is that top-line growth depends on global vehicle production, which management guides to roughly flat for 2026 — so the thesis rests on margin expansion + buyback, not unit growth. Investing.com consensus· juin 2026
Autoliv has beaten the analyst EPS estimate in each of the last four reported quarters (in fact, every quarter for over two years) as cost actions flow through. That is the signature of a turnaround that is working, not a one-off. Figures below are adjusted diluted EPS vs consensus.
| Quarter | Adj EPS (actual) | Estimate | Surprise | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $2.21 | $2.09 | +5.7% | Beat |
| Q3 2025 | $2.32 | $2.09 | +11.0% | Beat |
| Q4 2025 | $3.19 | $2.88 | +10.8% | Beat |
| Q1 2026 | $2.05 | $1.84 | +11.4% | Beat |
Q3 2025 delivered record third-quarter sales of $2.71B (+5.9%, +3.9% organic) at a 10.0% adjusted operating margin; Q4 capped the year with operating income above $1B for the first time; and Q1 2026 extended the streak with another beat ($2.05 vs $1.84) on $2.75B sales.
A full scan of Autoliv's SEC filing history (CIK 0001034670, 1,010 most-recent filings) returns zero S-1, S-3, 424B prospectus, ATM at-the-market program, or convertible note. The only equity-related filings are insider Form 4s, institutional 13G/13D notices, and the annual DEF 14A. The share count is shrinking, not growing.
Autoliv retired roughly 3.7% of its shares over the trailing year through open-market repurchases, on top of the 2.9% dividend. That is the opposite of the toxic-financing risk that plagues small caps — every quarter the same earnings stream is divided across fewer shares. No aggressive bookrunners (Wainwright, Maxim, Aegis), no PIPE, no reverse split, no shelf. SEC EDGAR filings· juin 2026
Debt capacity note: Autoliv maintains a €3B EMTN programme (Euro Medium Term Note, renewed March 2025, guaranteed by Autoliv ASP Inc.), providing access to institutional debt markets. This is a standard investment-grade debt facility, not an equity-dilutive instrument — no shares are created. Directors also receive RSU grants as stock-based compensation (Q1 2026 SBC: $9M), but buybacks ($250M in the trailing programme) materially exceed SBC-related dilution. Autoliv EMTN renewal· mar 2025
Insider activity: Director Jan Carlson sold 19,607 shares (~25% of his direct holdings) on 12 June 2026 at ~$130/share ($2.55M), retaining 60,000 shares. The sale occurred eight days before price broke the $120 stop. This is a partial sale from a long-tenured director, not a full exit — but the size (one quarter of his stake) and timing warrant monitoring alongside any further insider disposals. Form 4 — Carlson· juin 2026
| Last Price | $118.24 |
| RSI (14) | 41.9 (below neutral) |
| EMA 20 | $123.84 |
| EMA 50 | $121.05 |
| EMA 200 | $116.64 |
| MACD | $0.32 (signal $1.93) — bearish |
| Ext. vs EMA20 | -4.5% |
| 52W Range | $99.16 – $132.17 |
The bullish EMA stack is broken: price $118.24 is now below both EMA20 ($123.84) and EMA50 ($121.05), with only the EMA200 ($116.64) providing support below. RSI at 41.9 is below neutral but not yet oversold, and MACD ($0.32) remains below its signal line ($1.93) confirming bearish momentum. Short ratio at 5.64 days to cover adds pressure. The auto sector is under tariff/trade-war stress. The last line of defense is the EMA200 around $116.64 — a close below that level would signal a deeper correction toward the lower end of the 52W range ($99.16). Finviz· juin 2026
Autoliv competes in auto-safety against ZF Friedrichshafen (private), Joyson Safety Systems (post-Takata) and, increasingly, in-house programs at OEMs. Against listed Tier-1 auto suppliers, ALV stands out for its combination of margin and balance-sheet quality.
| Company | Fwd P/E | ROE | Net Debt/EBITDA | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Autoliv (ALV) | 9.9x | 28.4% | 1.3x | Leader |
| Aptiv (APTV) | ~10x | ~16% | ~2.5x | Cheaper, levered |
| BorgWarner (BWA) | ~9x | ~14% | ~1.6x | Powertrain mix |
| Magna (MGA) | ~9x | ~10% | ~1.7x | Lower margin |
ALV is not the absolute-cheapest auto supplier on the screen, but it pairs that near-bottom multiple with the highest ROE and the cleanest cap table of the group — the rare case where you do not pay up for quality. StockAnalysis· juin 2026
A high-quality balance sheet and earnings track record, but the stock is now trading below its stop loss amid auto-sector tariff fears. The principal risk has shifted from purely cyclical to include active trade-war/tariff pressure on the global auto supply chain. Short ratio at 5.64 days to cover adds downside pressure.
Autoliv trades at ~10x not because of company-specific fragility but because the entire auto-supplier complex is priced for a flat-to-shrinking production backdrop. The honest bear case is simply "no volume growth." The bull case is that margin expansion and a 4%/yr buyback grow EPS anyway, while the market eventually re-rates a 28%-ROE business off cyclical-trough multiples. Trade it as a quality cyclical: respect the auto cycle with a disciplined stop, but the balance sheet leaves no room for the catastrophic small-cap risks (dilution, burn, going-concern). StockAnalysis· juin 2026
The original entry at $127 with stop at $120 has been invalidated. Price ($118.24) broke below the $120 stop loss on 20 June 2026. The EMA stack is no longer bullish (price < EMA20 < EMA50). Original trade R/R is now 0.
| Level | Price | Status | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Invalidated | Price broke below $120 stop — original trade stopped out | ||
| Re-Entry Zone | $116 – $117 | Watching | Near EMA200 ($116.64) — needs price stabilization + volume |
| New Stop | $112.00 | — | Below EMA200 — structural invalidation of bounce thesis |
| TP1 | $127.00 | Conditional | Reclaim prior entry + EMA20 zone |
| TP2 | $132.00 | Conditional | 52W high retest |
The original bullish thesis (buy at EMA20, target breakout above 52W high) is invalidated. Price has broken below the $120 stop, EMAs are no longer stacked bullishly, and RSI at 41.9 confirms momentum deterioration. The fundamental story remains intact — 4/4 earnings beats, 28% ROE, zero dilution, cheap valuation — but the auto sector is under tariff/trade-war pressure. A potential re-entry near the EMA200 ($116.64) could offer a value bounce setup, but only if the stock stabilizes and shows accumulation. Do not catch the falling knife — wait for structure to rebuild before committing capital. MarketBeat forecast· juin 2026
Next earnings: 17 July 2026 (~27 days). A 4-10 week swing position will span this earnings report. Size accordingly (reduce by 30-50%) or plan to exit/hedge before the print. Do not hold full size through an earnings event on a cyclical name under tariff pressure.
ATR(14) = $3.71. The $112 stop from a $116.50 entry = $4.50 risk = 1.2x ATR. This is tight for a Beta 1.35 cyclical under sector stress. Size accordingly: risk no more than 0.5-0.75% of capital per position, or widen the stop to $110 (1.75x ATR) and reduce size proportionally.
Horizon: swing / position (4–10 weeks). Quantitative price-level framing only; not a guarantee of direction.
This analysis is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or solicitation to buy or sell any security.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Always conduct your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Data sourced from Yahoo Finance, StockAnalysis.com, MarketBeat, SEC EDGAR, and public market data. The price-forecast framing reflects a quantitative model and is not guaranteed. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
The author holds no position in ALV at the time of publication and has no business relationship with Autoliv Inc. Original analysis 14 June 2026; grade updated 20 June 2026.