Autoliv is the world #1 in passive auto safety (airbags, seatbelts, steering wheels) and is compounding record operating margins while buying back ~4% of its float every year. Four consecutive earnings beats at roughly 12x forward earnings with a 27% ROE make it the cheapest quality-cyclical with the cleanest balance sheet of the group — and one of the few near 52-week highs that is not technically extended. StockAnalysis· juin 2026
Autoliv is the global #1 supplier of passive safety systems for the automotive industry — airbags, seatbelts, steering wheels and pedestrian-protection systems — holding roughly 40–45% global market share. Headquartered in Stockholm and listed on the NYSE as an ADR, it ships to virtually every major automaker on the planet. Its content is mandated by crash-test ratings and safety regulation, which makes the demand structurally sticky regardless of which brands win or lose in any given model year. Autoliv IR· 2026
The investment story right now is margin self-help, not volume: management has spent two years rationalizing footprint, raising prices to offset inflation and improving mix. The payoff is visible — 2025 operating income crossed $1 billion for the first time, EPS rose above $9, and the company returned more than $3/share in dividends plus aggressive buybacks. Even with global light-vehicle production flat-to-down, Autoliv is growing earnings by expanding the percentage it keeps on every dollar of sales. 8-K FY25 results· jan 2026
| Metric | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (TTM) | $10.99B | +4.1% YoY |
| Net Income (TTM) | $709M | Record |
| EPS (TTM) | $9.30 | >$9 first time |
| Operating Margin (adj) | ~10.3% | Expanding |
| ROE | 28.4% | Best-in-class |
| ROA | 8.4% | Solid |
| PEG (fwd) | 0.84 | <1 — cheap growth |
| Net Debt / EBITDA | 1.41x | Moderate |
| Debt / Equity | 0.84x | Healthy |
| Fwd P/E | 11.9x | Value |
| EV / EBITDA | 7.5x | Cheap |
| Dividend Yield | 2.71% | 37% payout |
| Analyst Target | $132.18 | Buy · high $147 |
This is a rare combination: a 27% return on equity trading at ~12x forward earnings and 7.5x EV/EBITDA. The market is pricing Autoliv like a low-quality cyclical, but the returns profile is that of a compounder. Leverage is moderate (Net Debt/EBITDA 1.41x), the dividend is well covered (37% payout), and the buyback (~3.7% of shares retired) mechanically lifts EPS even in a flat-volume world. The one honest caveat is that top-line growth depends on global vehicle production, which management guides to roughly flat for 2026 — so the thesis rests on margin expansion + buyback, not unit growth. Investing.com consensus· juin 2026
Autoliv has beaten the analyst EPS estimate in each of the last four reported quarters (in fact, every quarter for over two years) as cost actions flow through. That is the signature of a turnaround that is working, not a one-off. Figures below are adjusted diluted EPS vs consensus.
| Quarter | Adj EPS (actual) | Estimate | Surprise | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $2.21 | $2.07 | +6.8% | Beat |
| Q3 2025 | $2.32 | $2.10 | +10.5% | Beat |
| Q4 2025 | $3.19 | $2.85 | +11.9% | Beat |
| Q1 2026 | $2.05 | $1.84 | +11.4% | Beat |
Q3 2025 delivered record third-quarter sales of $2.71B (+5.9%, +3.9% organic) at a 10.0% adjusted operating margin; Q4 capped the year with operating income above $1B for the first time; and Q1 2026 extended the streak with another beat ($2.05 vs $1.84) on $2.75B sales.
A full scan of Autoliv's SEC filing history (CIK 0001034670, 1,010 most-recent filings) returns zero S-1, S-3, 424B prospectus, ATM at-the-market program, or convertible note. The only equity-related filings are insider Form 4s, institutional 13G/13D notices, and the annual DEF 14A. The share count is shrinking, not growing.
Autoliv retired roughly 3.7% of its shares over the trailing year through open-market repurchases, on top of the 2.7% dividend. That is the opposite of the toxic-financing risk that plagues small caps — every quarter the same earnings stream is divided across fewer shares. No aggressive bookrunners (Wainwright, Maxim, Aegis), no PIPE, no reverse split, no shelf. SEC EDGAR filings· juin 2026
| Last Price | $128.53 |
| RSI (14) | 58.4 |
| EMA 20 | $125.61 |
| EMA 50 | $121.16 |
| EMA 200 | $117.00 |
| ATR (14) | $3.40 (2.6%) |
| Ext. vs EMA20 | +2.3% |
| 52W Range | $99.16 – $132.17 |
Textbook bullish structure with a clean EMA stack: price $128.53 > EMA20 $125.61 > EMA50 $121.16 > EMA200 $117.00. Crucially, the stock is only +2.3% above its EMA20 and RSI sits at a healthy 58.4 — it is riding the trend, not blowing off the top. With the 52-week high at $132.17 just overhead, this is a controlled approach to a breakout rather than a chase. ATR of $3.40 (2.6%) is tight enough for clean risk management. A push through $132 opens the path to fresh all-time territory. Finviz· juin 2026
Autoliv competes in auto-safety against ZF Friedrichshafen (private), Joyson Safety Systems (post-Takata) and, increasingly, in-house programs at OEMs. Against listed Tier-1 auto suppliers, ALV stands out for its combination of margin and balance-sheet quality.
| Company | Fwd P/E | ROE | Net Debt/EBITDA | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Autoliv (ALV) | 11.9x | 28.4% | 1.41x | Leader |
| Aptiv (APTV) | ~10x | ~16% | ~2.5x | Cheaper, levered |
| BorgWarner (BWA) | ~9x | ~14% | ~1.6x | Powertrain mix |
| Magna (MGA) | ~9x | ~10% | ~1.7x | Lower margin |
ALV is not the absolute-cheapest auto supplier on the screen, but it pairs that near-bottom multiple with the highest ROE and the cleanest cap table of the group — the rare case where you do not pay up for quality. StockAnalysis· juin 2026
A high-quality, dividend-paying market leader with a pristine balance sheet. The principal risk is cyclical, not structural: earnings ride global auto production. There is no dilution, no cash-burn and no execution cliff.
Autoliv trades at ~12x not because of company-specific fragility but because the entire auto-supplier complex is priced for a flat-to-shrinking production backdrop. The honest bear case is simply "no volume growth." The bull case is that margin expansion and a 4%/yr buyback grow EPS anyway, while the market eventually re-rates a 27%-ROE business off cyclical-trough multiples. Trade it as a quality cyclical: respect the auto cycle with a disciplined stop, but the balance sheet leaves no room for the catastrophic small-cap risks (dilution, burn, going-concern).
| Level | Price | Move from Entry | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stop | $120.00 | -5.5% | Below EMA50 ($121.16) — structure break |
| Entry | $127.00 | — | Limit just under spot, at the EMA20 shelf |
| TP1 | $140.00 | +10.2% | Clears 52W high $132.17 — breakout target (R/R 1.86) |
| TP2 | $148.00 | +16.5% | Just above the ~$147 analyst-high (R/R 3.00) |
Buy the world #1 in auto safety while it compounds record margins and shrinks its own float, at ~12x forward earnings with a 27% ROE — the cheapest quality name in its group with the least-extended chart near 52-week highs. The trade is structured around the EMA20 shelf: a limit at $127 keeps the entry tight to support, the stop at $120 sits just below EMA50, and TP1 at $140 takes the breakout above the prior 52-week high. Risk $7 to make $13 (TP1) or $21 (TP2).
Horizon: swing / position (4–10 weeks). Quantitative price-level framing only; not a guarantee of direction.
This analysis is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or solicitation to buy or sell any security.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Always conduct your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Data sourced from Yahoo Finance, StockAnalysis.com, MarketBeat, SEC EDGAR, and public market data. The price-forecast framing reflects a quantitative model and is not guaranteed. Accuracy is not guaranteed.