ASML — ASML Holding N.V.

NASDAQ · Technology · 10 juin 2026
$1777.77 +1.64% Momentum Score 97 A+ ☪ Halal
$685.18B
Market Cap
3.1M
Volume
37.2x
Fwd P/E
1.20
Beta
$683 – $1831
52W Range
0.8%
Short Interest
49.00%
Div Yield
ASML Chart
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Verdict Express

A+ Bullish Very High% confidence

ASML is the ultimate monopoly play in technology — the only company in the world capable of manufacturing EUV lithography machines. With an unassailable competitive moat, record order backlog driven by AI capex, and the upcoming High-NA EUV cycle at 2x ASP, ASML represents the highest-conviction long in semiconductors. Clean setup at 65 RSI, near ATH.

Why Buy

  • Absolute monopoly: zero EUV competitors globally
  • Q1 beat + record backlog = multi-year revenue visibility
  • AI capex supercycle from TSMC, Samsung, Intel, and new fabs
  • High-NA EUV at 2x ASP = next growth lever
  • Only 2.9% from ATH with RSI 65 — healthy momentum

Why Avoid

  • Forward PE 37x — premium valuation
  • Export control risks on China shipments
  • Cyclical semiconductor capex exposure

Business Overview

ASML Holding is the world's sole manufacturer of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines — the most critical and complex equipment in semiconductor manufacturing. Every advanced chip below 7nm (used in AI accelerators, smartphones, data centers) requires ASML's EUV technology.

The company holds a 100% monopoly on EUV systems, with each machine costing $200M+ and the next-gen High-NA EUV systems priced at $380M+. ASML's order backlog exceeds €30B, providing multi-year revenue visibility. Key customers include TSMC, Samsung, Intel, and SK Hynix — all accelerating AI chip capex.

Fundamentals

MetricValueSignal
Revenue (TTM)$N/AN/A YoY
EBITDA$N/ANegative
Gross MarginN/AWeak
Operating MarginN/ANegative
Net MarginN/ALoss
ROEN/ANegative
Cash$N/A
Debt$4.80BDebt/MCap 0.7%
Fwd P/E37.2xGrowth
Analyst TargetN/A

Technical Analysis

RSI (14)65.0
EMA 20$1633.50
EMA 50$1537.40
EMA 200$1273.90
MACD68.610
Signal56.840
ATR (14)$91.04
Above EMA200 Above EMA50 MACD Bullish RSI Neutral

Technical Setup

Near ATH ($1,831) with powerful EMA stack: EMA20 ($1,633) > EMA50 ($1,537) > EMA200 ($1,274). RSI at 65.0 — strong momentum without overbought. MACD strongly bullish with wide positive spread. ATR $91 (5.1%) provides dynamic volatility. Price up 160% from 52-week low ($683), institutional accumulation accelerating.

Risk Analysis

18/10
Risk

Risk Profile: Moderate

Monopoly business with record backlog and multi-year AI demand visibility. Lowest risk in semis.

Export Control Risk

Medium
  • US/Dutch export restrictions on China shipments
  • China ~15-20% of historical revenue
Probability
Impact
Already priced in; domestic Chinese demand partially replaced by other customers

Valuation

Low
  • Forward PE 37x above semiconductor median
  • Requires sustained capex cycle
Probability
Impact
Monopoly premium justified — no alternative exists for leading-edge chip manufacturing

Trade Idea

Entry Zone
$1760.00
Momentum entry
Stop Loss
$1660.00
-5.7% risk
Target 1
$1960.00
+11.4% upside
Target 2
$2100.00
+19.3% stretch
Risk/Reward
1:2.0
20-day horizon

Thesis

ASML is the sole manufacturer of EUV lithography machines — a monopoly powering every advanced chip on Earth. Trading 2.9% from ATH with Q1 beat (+8%), RSI at healthy 65, and massive institutional accumulation. The AI capex supercycle guarantees multi-year demand visibility for ASML's order backlog.

Catalysts

  • Global monopoly on EUV lithography — zero competition, infinite moat
  • Q1 2026 EPS $7.15 vs $6.62 est (+8%) — beat on record backlog
  • AI capex supercycle driving record tool demand from TSMC, Samsung, Intel
  • High-NA EUV rollout creating new revenue tier at 2x ASP

Invalidation

  • Break below EMA50 ($1,537) on volume > 5M
  • Export controls significantly restricting China shipments
  • Semiconductor capex cycle downturn reversal

Disclaimer

This analysis is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or solicitation to buy or sell any security.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Always conduct your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Data sourced from DailyTickers Gateway, Yahoo Finance, SEC EDGAR, and public market data. Accuracy is not guaranteed.

Verdict Business Fundamentals Technical Risks Trade Idea