Coeur is now a scaled North American precious-metals producer whose operating improvement is visible in cash, not merely commodity marks. Q2 revenue rose 126% YoY to $1.09 billion, adjusted EBITDA reached $478.3 million at a 44% margin and free cash flow was $387.5 million. Gold production increased 51% to 163,490 ounces, while silver production declined 7% to 4.4 million ounces, making the enlarged company more gold-sensitive than its legacy identity suggests. The balance sheet moved to $347 million net cash, and management's full-year framework calls for roughly 690,000 gold ounces, 20 million silver ounces, $2.3 billion adjusted EBITDA and $1.5 billion free cash flow under its stated metal-price assumptions. The contrarian issue is integration: shares rose from 642.1 million at year-end to 1.03 billion after acquisitions, and Rainy River plus New Afton guidance deteriorated. A B grade is defensible because current cash generation offsets dilution and execution risk. The trade stays in Wait until a completed 15-minute close above $22.45 prints with non-zero regular-session volume; elevated metal prices are already embedded in margins.
Coeur earns revenue by mining and selling gold, silver and copper from a larger post-acquisition portfolio. Q2 gold production was 163,490 ounces, silver production 4.4M ounces and copper production 11.4M pounds; realized prices, grades, recoveries and unit costs set mine margins. The quarter generated $387.5M of free cash flow and left the company with $347M net cash.
The AI transmission channel is through metals and infrastructure, not software. Data-center construction and electrification can support copper and silver demand, but gold still supplied roughly two-thirds of Q2 metal revenue and monetary demand remains the dominant valuation driver.
The model breaks if grades, recoveries or ramp-ups miss plan, if Rainy River or New Afton costs remain elevated, or if gold and silver prices normalize before acquisition synergies arrive. Large purchase-accounting charges and the enlarged share count can also obscure whether growth is accretive per share.
| Segment | Revenue | % Total | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| New Afton mine | 55k-65k oz gold guidance | 45M lb copper guidance | Mine-level 2026 outlook; gold cost guidance is $1,300-$1,600/oz and copper cost is $2.00-$2.30/lb. |
| Rainy River mine | 230k-275k oz gold guidance | $2,700-$3,000/oz cost guidance | Mine-level 2026 outlook and a key source of the consolidated execution risk. |
| Las Chispas mine | 55k-65k oz gold guidance | 5.5M-6.3M oz silver guidance | Mine-level 2026 outlook; cost guidance is $750-$950/oz gold and $12.50-$14.50/oz silver. |
| Palmarejo mine | 95k-105k oz gold guidance | 6.25M-7.0M oz silver guidance | Mine-level 2026 outlook; cost guidance is $700-$900/oz gold and $21.50-$23.50/oz silver. |
| Metric | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 revenue | $1.086B | +126% YoY |
| Adjusted EBITDA margin | 44% | $478.3M non-GAAP EBITDA |
| Q2 free cash flow | $387.5M | +165% YoY |
| FY26 FCF guidance | $1.5B | Forward issuer outlook published Q2 2026; versus the annualized Q2 free-cash-flow scenario |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.8x annualized-Q2 non-GAAP EBITDA | As of 2026-08-27: $22.49B enterprise value versus $478.3M Q2 adjusted EBITDA annualized to $1.913B |
| Scenario/NAV framework | 6.9% maximum annualized-Q2 FCF/EV yield; 5.2% stressed | Scenario as of 2026-08-27: $387.5M Q2 FCF annualized against at least $22.49B enterprise value; a 25% cash-flow haircut gives $1.163B |
| Revenue (TTM) | $3.17B | 125.9% YoY |
| Gross Margin | 56.3% | Reported |
| Operating Margin | 19.4% | Profitable |
| Net Margin | 26.8% | Positive |
| ROE | 12.8% | Capital efficiency |
| Cash | $1.05B | Liquidity; sector accounting may limit direct debt netting |
| Debt | $713.2M | Balance-sheet claim |
| Intrinsic-value model | N/A | Fail-closed: insufficient or non-economic output |
| Value / quality panel | 1 positive / 3 negative / 1 neutral | bearish / confidence 67 |
| Fundamental grade audit | 71/100 (B) | base +55, growth +14, grossMargin +4, operatingMargin +5, earningsGrowth +0, roe +0, balanceSheet +0, qualityBoard -6, capitalStructure -1, controls +0; capped score 71/100 |
| Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Est. | Surprise | Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3Q2025 | $0.23 | $0.25 | -8.6% | - |
| 4Q2025 | $0.35 | $0.33 | 5.0% | - |
| 1Q2026 | $0.36 | $0.36 | 0.3% | - |
| 2Q2026 | $0.12 | $0.26 | -54.1% | - |
Q2 2026 revenue was $1.086B, up 126% YoY; GAAP net income was $121.9M or $0.12 per share, while adjusted net income was $122.6M and adjusted EPS $0.12. Non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA was $478.3M, a 44% margin, and free cash flow was $387.5M. Full-year guidance calls for about 690,000 gold ounces, 20M silver ounces, 45M copper pounds, $2.3B adjusted EBITDA and $1.5B free cash flow. The caveat is weaker Rainy River and New Afton guidance plus metal-price assumptions. — Next: 2026-10-28
No structured transaction table was captured.
The acquisition-led expansion increased issued shares from 642.1M at December 31 to 1.0285B at June 30. That is completed merger consideration, not an ATM inference, and it resets every per-share comparison. Cash of $1.052B exceeded $705.3M debt for $347M net cash. The reviewed sources do not supply a current fully diluted reconciliation across awards and any convertible exposure, so the $22.84B market capitalization and yield scenarios use issued basic shares and retain a wait state rather than claiming diluted per-share precision.
3 decision-relevant primary filing(s) are displayed with accession-specific findings. Grade B measures fundamentals; trade state wait measures timing and is evaluated separately.
| Date | Form | Accession | What the filing changes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | 10-Q | 0000215466-26-000036 | The Q2 10-Q supports $1.052B cash, approximately $705M debt, the enlarged 1.0285B share base and acquisition accounting; liquidity is strong, but per-share comparisons must use the post-acquisition denominator. |
| 2026-02-18 | 10-K | 0000215466-26-000004 | The 2025 10-K provides the pre-acquisition operating and risk baseline, including mine concentration, reserve replacement and commodity-price sensitivity needed to judge whether the enlarged portfolio truly diversifies cash flow. |
| 2026-08-05 | 8-K | 0000215466-26-000038 | The August 5 8-K furnishes the direct Q2 release showing $1.086B revenue, $478.3M adjusted EBITDA and $387.5M free cash flow plus weaker Rainy River and New Afton guidance. |
CDE point-in-time short-interest context only; no acceleration claim without a comparable dated series.
Unusual Activity: No unusual activity confirmed
| RSI (14) | 80.6 |
| EMA 20 | $19.36 |
| EMA 50 | $18.09 |
| EMA 200 | $17.64 |
| MACD | 1.446 |
| Signal | 1.114 |
| ATR (14) | $1.03 |
| Wyckoff | Transitional |
CDE remains in Wait until $22.45 is exceeded on a completed 15-minute close carrying non-zero regular-session volume. Only that event makes the August 24 low at $20.36 the operative stop and unlocks the February 27 $27.3799 and January 26 $27.77 objectives at 2.36R and 2.55R. The recorded quote is $22.18 at 2026-08-28T14:00:02Z. The opening-range observation at 2026-08-28T13:30:00Z registered a $22.45 high and $22.09 low; daily indicators end at the 2026-08-27 close. Strong guidance does not waive that confirmation gate.
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Reference close | 2026-08-27 | Daily structure is point-in-time controlled |
| Quote snapshot | 2026-08-28T14:00:02Z | Exact timestamp; not represented as a publication-time live quote |
| Opening observation | 2026-08-28T13:30:00Z | Regular-session range used for the single activation level |
Regime: risk-on
CDE is primarily a gold-margin vehicle with meaningful silver and smaller copper exposure. Real rates and monetary demand move gold, industrial and electrification demand affect silver and copper, while fuel, labor and currency determine how much metal-price upside reaches free cash flow.
The main risk is that strong metal prices conceal mine-level execution weakness: acquisition dilution, higher Rainy River and New Afton costs, reserve depletion and commodity normalization could reduce free cash flow per share despite higher consolidated production. Retail war-room: gold/silver moves or mine guidance can gap CDE through $20.36; use regular-session liquidity and limit orders to control spread and slippage, scale sizing for commodity discontinuity, avoid earnings and reserve-update events, and do not chase above the $22.45 activation or after a metal-price spike.
Judge a miner using production, realized price, cash cost, AISC, sustaining capital and free cash flow by mine, then divide across the post-acquisition share base. Adjusted EBITDA alone can hide replacement capital and integration shortfalls.
CDE: directional flow remains unscored because no dated, inspectable transaction-level source was captured.
The wait-state setup expresses continued post-acquisition cash-flow delivery only after a completed 15-minute close above $22.45 confirms with regular-session volume, with the final $20.36 August 24 pivot stop controlling downside and $27.3799/$27.77 paying 2.36R/2.55R. It requires Rainy River and New Afton to stabilize while realized metal prices preserve margins; the trade should not be justified by consolidated revenue growth alone because the share base increased roughly 60% through acquisition consideration.
Judge a miner using production, realized price, cash cost, AISC, sustaining capital and free cash flow by mine, then divide across the post-acquisition share base. Current trade state: wait.
This analysis is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or solicitation to buy or sell any security.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Always conduct your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Data comes from point-in-time market snapshots, company filings, Yahoo Finance, SEC EDGAR, and public market data. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
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