Chord Energy is the largest pure-play operator in the Williston Basin (Bakken), now trading at a deep-value 7.8x forward PE, 3.85x EV/EBITDA and 0.87x book — effectively priced below the value of its assets. After a ~18% pullback from the May high to its rising 200-EMA, the stock offers a contrarian entry in a name returning large capital (4.2% dividend + active $1.0B buyback) while management has just raised 2026 guidance. Two near-term catches: momentum is bearish (below EMA20/50, MACD and OBV negative), and the thesis is levered to oil, which at ~$73.5 WTI already sits below the $80 assumed in that guidance (natural gas ~$3.24 is on-assumption).
Chord Energy (formerly Oasis Petroleum, renamed July 2022) is an independent exploration & production company and the largest pure-play operator in the Williston Basin, the heart of the North Dakota / Montana Bakken shale play. The company acquires, develops and produces crude oil, natural gas and NGLs, selling to refiners and marketers via pipeline and rail.
Chord is the most active driller in the Bakken and the technical leader in extended-reach laterals, including 3-mile and 4-mile wells that materially lower cost-per-foot and improve capital efficiency. With ~676 employees and a Houston, TX headquarters, it runs a low-overhead, free-cash-flow-first model: 2026 capex is held flat while oil volumes are guided higher, and excess cash is returned through a base dividend and a $1.0B buyback or directed to deleveraging.
| Segment | Revenue | % Total | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Oil | Majority | ~70% | Williston Basin oil production — 161 MBopd guided for 2026 |
| Natural Gas & NGLs | Balance | ~30% | Associated gas and natural gas liquids from Bakken wells |
| Metric | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (TTM) | $5.02B | +38.5% YoY |
| EBITDA | $2.15B | Strong |
| Gross Margin | 47.2% | Healthy |
| Operating Margin | 5.8% | Hedge-impacted |
| Net Margin | -1.3% | GAAP hedge losses |
| ROE | -0.8% | GAAP loss |
| EV / EBITDA | 3.85x | Deep value |
| Fwd P/E | 7.8x | Value |
| Price / Book | 0.87x | Below book |
| Cash | $225.8M | |
| Total Debt | $1.50B | ~0.6x EBITDA |
| Dividend | $5.20/yr (4.18%) | + $1B buyback |
| Analyst Target | $173 | +39% upside |
| Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Est. | Surprise | Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | $4.56 | $3.49 | +31% | - |
| Q4 2025 | $1.28 | $1.24 | +4% | - |
| Q3 2025 | $2.35 | $2.29 | +3% | - |
| Q2 2025 | $1.79 | $1.88 | -5% | - |
3 consecutive beats (Q3'25–Q1'26), 1 miss in Q2'25 — strong but not a clean 5-beat A+ streak — Next: Early August 2026 (est.)
No insider buys or sells flagged in the recent window — neutral.
Share count is declining, not rising: Chord runs a $1.0B buyback program and repurchased ~$70.7M in Q1 2026 plus a ~$118.5M tranche in early May. The May 2026 Form S-3ASR is a routine omnibus shelf (debt/preferred/common/warrants) for financial flexibility — not a dilution event; no active ATM and no toxic warrants.
Declining — 8.24% (Mar 13) → 7.52% (Mar 31) → 5.81% (May 15)
Unusual Activity: No unusual activity flagged; positioning skews bullish (call-heavy) with max pain pinned at $125 ≈ spot
| RSI (14) | 37.0 |
| EMA 20 | $133.04 |
| EMA 50 | $134.12 |
| EMA 200 | $118.45 |
| MACD | -3.660 |
| Signal | -2.180 |
| ATR (14) | $5.16 |
| Wyckoff | transitional |
CHRD has pulled back ~18% from its May high ($151.95) and now sits at $124.45 — below the EMA20 ($133.0) and EMA50 ($134.1) but still holding above the rising EMA200 ($118.45). The pattern scanner flags a high-conviction Tweezer Bottom (score 97) at the lower Bollinger band (%B 0.07) with RSI 33 and 1.65x relative volume, and a bullish RSI divergence is forming — classic exhaustion-of-sellers signals. Counterbalancing this, OBV has turned bearish and MACD (-3.66) sits below its signal (-2.18), so the short-term trend is not yet confirmed up. Anchored VWAP sits at $108.65 (price ~+14% above it, just under the +1σ band at $126). Net read: a counter-trend reversal attempt at long-term support. The 200-EMA / tweezer low ($118–122) is the line in the sand; a reclaim of $134 (EMA cluster) flips structure bullish.
A fortress balance sheet and below-book valuation cushion the downside, but the thesis is squarely levered to the oil price — and with WTI already ~$73.5 (below the $80 guidance assumption), the near-term tape is bearish.
Chord inverts the usual small-cap risk profile: dilution and balance-sheet risk are minimal (it is buying back stock at ~0.6x net-debt/EBITDA), while the dominant risk is exogenous — the oil price. The low 0.36 beta and below-book valuation give it defensive characteristics for an E&P, but a counter-trend entry against bearish momentum demands discipline: respect the 200-EMA and let the dividend pay you to wait.
Dark-pool share (~38%) is in a normal range — no aggressive off-exchange accumulation or distribution signal. Anchored VWAP $108.65; price ~14% above it.
Chord is a deep-value Bakken pure-play trading below book (0.87x P/B) at 3.85x EV/EBITDA and 7.8x forward earnings, while returning capital aggressively (4.2% dividend + $1.0B buyback) and having just raised 2026 oil and FCF guidance. The June sell-off has dragged it ~18% off its high straight onto its rising 200-EMA with RSI 37 — a classic mean-reversion setup in a fundamentally strong, low-beta name. The catch is macro: WTI at ~$73.5 already sits below the $80 the FCF guide assumes, so this is a contrarian bet that crude stabilises. The trade buys the pullback to long-term trend support, risks a clean break of the 200-EMA, and targets a reclaim of the EMA cluster ($138) then a retest of the prior high. The buyback and dividend provide a valuation floor that pays you to wait. Note: Q2 results (~early August) may straddle the TP2 window — size to carry through the print.
This is a mean-reversion value-and-income play, not a momentum trade. Size for oil volatility, let the buyback and 4.2% dividend pay you to wait, and treat the 200-EMA ($118) as a non-negotiable line in the sand.
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