Cipher Digital is a power-and-land development option whose near-term financial statements remain dominated by the shrinking mining base and construction financing. Q2 2026 revenue was only $25 million and non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA was negative $30 million. Black Pearl delivered initial capacity in early August and rent began, while Apollo could add up to 900 MW. Yet the point-in-time market value of roughly $6.8 billion and enterprise value near $11.6 billion sit against just $191 million of trailing revenue. Cash of $832 million is supplemented by restricted bond proceeds, not freely available surplus; long-term borrowings were about $5.45 billion. The filing confirms a 15-year, 300 MW Black Pearl lease but does not disclose base rent or remaining capex, so a common-equity SOTP is not verifiable. The D grade is fundamental and appropriate. The unchanged $16.47 plan is rejected because $18.2299 and $18.735 provide only 1.17R and 1.50R against the $14.96 stop.
Cipher owns and develops large power sites, earning current revenue from bitcoin mining and seeking long-duration HPC rents as campuses are delivered. The economic drivers are energized megawatts, tenant lease commencement, mining hash economics and construction cost.
The AI channel runs through scarce power: Cipher secures interconnection and land, finances datacenter construction, and converts the site into rent when an HPC tenant accepts capacity. Black Pearl's early delivery is the first tangible step from option value to income.
The model breaks if optional sites never secure tenants, restricted financing cannot move between projects, construction costs rise, or mining cash flow weakens before leases ramp. A large warrant liability and rising share count also dilute the connection between asset growth and common-share value. The correct scorecard is rent-producing capacity, unrestricted parent cash and remaining project cost, not gross pipeline megawatts or restricted bond balances considered in isolation.
| Segment | Revenue | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Mining - sole current operating segment | Cipher's June 10-Q identifies Bitcoin Mining as its only operating segment; HPC construction and options remain development activity until lease revenue qualifies for separate reporting. | |
| HPC development disclosure - non-segment | Black Pearl construction and the Apollo option are tracked as future capacity and commitments, not presented as a second current operating segment or recognized revenue stream. |
| Metric | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 revenue | $25M | Current earnings base |
| Q2 adjusted EBITDA | ($30M) | Non-GAAP negative |
| Cash | $831.8M | Separate from restricted proceeds |
| Restricted cash | ~$3.73B | Project-bound |
| Long-term borrowings | ~$5.45B | Construction leverage |
| EV/Revenue | ~60x trailing | August 28, 2026 basis; 60.0x versus WULF 65.7x and CORZ 18.7x trailing EV/revenue |
| EV/optional Apollo MW scenario | ~$12.9M/MW ceiling | August 28, 2026 scenario: $11.6B EV divided by the full 900MW Apollo option, versus $0 current Apollo rent; this is an upper-bound comparison, not contracted NAV |
| Contracted-rent / remaining-capex scenario | 300 MW / N/A | August 4, 2026 basis: Black Pearl has a 15-year 300 MW lease and rent commenced by phase, but filed base rent and remaining capex are unavailable; versus the $11.6B EV, no common-equity SOTP is verifiable |
| Revenue (TTM) | $191.1M | -43.0% YoY |
| Gross Margin | -10.0% | Reported |
| Operating Margin | -301.7% | Loss-making |
| Net Margin | N/A | Not reliably available |
| ROE | -167.5% | Capital efficiency |
| Debt | $5.59B | Balance-sheet claim |
| Intrinsic-value model | N/A | Fail-closed: insufficient or non-economic output |
| Value / quality panel | 0 positive / 5 negative / 0 neutral | bearish / confidence 66 |
| Fundamental grade audit | 29/100 (D) | base +55, growth -7, grossMargin -2, operatingMargin -6, earningsGrowth +0, roe +0, balanceSheet -4, qualityBoard -6, capitalStructure -1, controls +0; capped score 29/100 |
| Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Est. | Surprise | Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3Q2025 | $0.10 | $0.06 | 60.0% | - |
| 4Q2025 | $-0.14 | $0.07 | -290.9% | - |
| 1Q2026 | $-0.19 | $-0.04 | -437.4% | - |
| 2Q2026 | $-0.15 | $-0.14 | -10.8% | - |
Q2 2026 revenue was $25M and non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA was negative $30M. Black Pearl delivered initial capacity in early August, two months ahead of schedule, and rent commenced after quarter-end. Management highlighted an option for up to 900 MW at Apollo and fully funded Stingray through bond proceeds, but did not provide formal consolidated revenue guidance in the release. The caveat is that construction milestones and potential megawatts do not repair current profitability: the reported quarter still reflects a small mining revenue base and substantial development expense. No confirmed Cipher next-results date was available in the official calendar materials reviewed. — Next: Not confirmed
No structured transaction table was captured.
Cipher's capital structure is project-finance heavy. Shares outstanding rose to 414.3M from 405.0M at year-end; Google's 24,178,576 penny warrants imply a minimum 438.4M-share legal denominator if exercised, 5.8% above basic. That minimum explicitly excludes unvested awards and any additional shares or cash required by the $430M value-protection clause because the final outcome depends on future prices and settlement terms; it is a floor, not a fully diluted forecast. The $632.1M warrant liability is accounting value, not a share count. June cash was $831.8M, restricted cash about $3.73B and long-term borrowings roughly $5.45B. Restricted proceeds cannot be netted as parent cash.
3 decision-relevant primary filing(s) are displayed with accession-specific findings. Grade D measures fundamentals; trade state rejected measures timing and is evaluated separately.
| Date | Form | Accession | What the filing changes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | 10-Q | 0001819989-26-000041 | The June Form 10-Q reports $831.8M cash, approximately $3.73B restricted cash, roughly $5.45B long-term borrowings and a $632.1M warrant liability, establishing project-finance constraints. This classification controls the editorial conclusion. |
| 2026-02-24 | 10-K | 0001819989-26-000009 | The 2025 Form 10-K establishes Cipher's annual mining, development, control and capital baseline; it predates Black Pearl rent commencement and should not source the August delivery milestone. |
| 2026-08-04 | 8-K | 0001819989-26-000038 | The August earnings Form 8-K furnishes Q2 revenue of $25M, negative $30M non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA and Black Pearl's post-quarter rent commencement through the direct exhibit. |
CIFR point-in-time short-interest context only; no acceleration claim without a comparable dated series.
Unusual Activity: No unusual activity confirmed
| RSI (14) | 48.5 |
| EMA 20 | $17.61 |
| EMA 50 | $19.42 |
| EMA 200 | $17.91 |
| MACD | -1.325 |
| Signal | -1.364 |
| ATR (14) | $1.60 |
| Wyckoff | Transitional |
CIFR is rejected at the unchanged $16.47 reference because the August 24 stop at $14.96 reaches only 1.17R at the August 21 pivot of $18.2299 and 1.50R at the August 17 pivot of $18.735. The snapshot was $16.33 at 2026-08-28T13:45:00Z and the pivot set ends August 27. No activation, order or sizing is permitted; project-financing or tenant news requires a fresh review. Daily indicators and pivots run only through the 2026-08-27 close.
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Reference close | 2026-08-27 | Daily structure is point-in-time controlled |
| Quote snapshot | 2026-08-28T13:45:00Z | Exact timestamp; not represented as a publication-time live quote |
| Opening observation | 2026-08-28T13:30:00Z | Regular-session range used for the single activation level |
Regime: risk-on
Cipher is exposed to Texas power availability, datacenter lease demand and bitcoin hash economics. AI demand matters only when a tenant and project financing convert interconnection rights into rent; power curtailment and credit spreads hit both mining cash flow and development value.
Cipher is valued on future leased megawatts while current revenue and adjusted EBITDA remain weak. Restricted cash, project debt, warrants and optional rather than contracted sites make headline liquidity and pipeline figures easy to overstate.
Cipher still reports one Bitcoin Mining operating segment; HPC is development optionality until lease revenue qualifies separately. Retail war-room: the $16.47/$14.96 plan is rejected at 1.17R and 1.50R, so sizing is zero and no order may be staged. Gap risk, low liquidity, spread and slippage worsen the payoff; never chase tenant news. Financing events require a fresh regular-session structure.
CIFR: directional flow remains unscored because no dated, inspectable transaction-level source was captured.
Reject the unchanged $16.47 entry: the dated $14.96 stop yields only 1.17R to $18.2299 and 1.50R to $18.735, inadequate for negative EBITDA, project-restricted liquidity and overnight funding gaps. No order or sizing is permitted. A fresh regular-session structure must be built after any tenant, construction or financing event before the dossier can become actionable.
Cipher still reports one Bitcoin Mining operating segment; HPC is development optionality until lease revenue qualifies separately. Current trade state: rejected.
This analysis is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or solicitation to buy or sell any security.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Always conduct your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Data comes from point-in-time market snapshots, company filings, Yahoo Finance, SEC EDGAR, and public market data. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
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