DailyTickers

CNC — Centene Corporation

NYSE · Healthcare · August 28, 2026
$65.96 +1.20% Wait; insider flow is negative Healthcare Plans Score 43 C-
$32.58B
Market Cap
3.6M
Volume
N/A
Fwd P/E
1.105
Beta
N/A
52W Range
3.1%
Short Interest
$71.67
Analyst Target
4.7x
EV/EBITDA
CNC Chart
Click to enlarge

Verdict Express

C- Neutral Moderate confidence

Centene Corporation operates as a managed care company that provides programs and services to under-insured families, and commercial organizations in the United States. It operates through four segments: Medicaid, Medicare, Commercial, and Other. Wait; insider flow is negative. Wait state: Reclaim $66.21 and VWAP.

Why Buy

  • Revenue growth: 4.6%; earnings growth: 0.0%
  • Balance-sheet totals require sector-specific interpretation; see the SEC review.
  • Defined confirmation: Reclaim $66.21 and VWAP

Why Avoid

  • Wait state: Reclaim $66.21 and VWAP.
  • First-target reward/risk at confirmation: 1.38R
  • IBNR reserves of $12.9B and a $481M risk-adjustment benefit make earnings quality sensitive to estimates.

Business Overview

Centene Corporation operates as a managed care company that provides programs and services to under-insured families, and commercial organizations in the United States. It operates through four segments: Medicaid, Medicare, Commercial, and Other. The Medicaid segment offers the temporary assistance for needy families; medicaid expansion; aged, blind, or disabled; and children's health insurance programs, as well as long-term services and supports; foster care; and medicare-medicaid plans. This segment also provides healthcare products and services. The Medicare segment offers special needs and medicare supplement, and prescription drug plans. The Commercial segment provides health insurance marketplace product for individual and commercial group. The Other segment operates clinical healthcare and pharmacies, as well as offers vision and dental, behavioral health, and centralized services. It provides services through primary and specialty care physicians, hospitals, behavioral health practitioners, and ancillary providers. The company was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Saint Louis, Missouri.

Recent News

2026-08-27
Why Is Centene (CNC) Up 5.9% Since Last Earnings Report? neutral
Context only; no trade conclusion is drawn from this headline.
Zacks
2026-08-27
Centene (CNC) Stock Fair Value Rises After Analysts Back Margin Recovery neutral
Context only; no trade conclusion is drawn from this headline.
Simply Wall St.

Fundamentals

MetricValueSignal
Revenue (TTM)$180.30B4.6% YoY
EBITDA$4.61B4.7x EV/EBITDA
Gross Margin11.4%Reported
Operating Margin3.8%Profitable
Net Margin-2.8%Negative
ROE-20.4%Capital efficiency
Cash$27.06BSector balance sheet; do not net mechanically
Debt$16.10BSector balance sheet; do not net mechanically
Forward P/EN/ANo estimate substituted
Intrinsic-value modelN/AFail-closed: insufficient inputs
Value / quality panel2 positive / 3 negative / 0 neutralbearish / confidence 71
Analyst Mean Target$71.67Consensus, not a guarantee

Earnings History

QuarterEPS ActualEPS Est.SurpriseRevenue
3Q2025$0.50$-0.16404.3%-
4Q2025$-1.19$-1.222.5%-
1Q2026$3.37$2.1357.9%-
2Q2026$2.51$1.08132.6%-

4/4 captured quarters beat estimates — Next: 2026-10-27T12:30:00Z

Insiders & Institutions

0.4%
Insider Own.
101.4%
Institution Own.

Recent Transactions

DateInsiderTypeSharesValue
2026-06-10Burdick Kenneth Asell80,000$5.2M

bearish aggregate feed — 0 buys and 1 sale

Capital Structure & Dilution

494.0M
Shares Out.
See filing review
Authorized
moderate
Dilution Risk

Financing dilution is low, but employee issuance was net dilutive: about 3.1M shares issued versus 0.9M repurchased in the first half; $1.8B of buyback authority remained.

SEC Filings Review

Official filings were reviewed through 2026-08-28; the table lists the decision-relevant documents rather than every routine filing. The C- grade describes the full dossier; the trade state (wait) is a separate timing decision.

DateFormAccessionWhat the filing changes
2026-07-2810-Q0001071739-26-000153Shows reserve sensitivity, employee issuance and unusual working-capital presentation.
2026-08-178-K0001071739-26-000165Updates the CFO transition and reaffirmed guidance.

Contrarian checks

Short Interest

3.1%
SI % Float
3.74
Days to Cover
N/A
CTB

Current snapshot only; no acceleration claim without a comparable historical series.

Options / Derivatives

3,066
Call OI
1,867
Put OI
1.64
C/P Ratio
$63.00
Max Pain
N/A
IV Mean

Unusual Activity: No unusual activity confirmed

Technical Analysis

RSI (14)51.0
EMA 20$65.16
EMA 50$63.77
EMA 200$52.09
MACD0.168
Signal0.210
ATR (14)$2.24
WyckoffTransitional
RSI 51.0 WAIT Wait; insider flow is negative
Supports: $31.64 / $33.73 / $25.08
Resistances: $69.33

Technical Setup

Wait; insider flow is negative. Required confirmation: Reclaim $66.21 and VWAP. Available moving averages are shown with their provider type.

Performance & Benchmarks

58.8%
YTD
126.5%
1Y
N/A — insufficient point-in-time history
3Y
Not calculated without aligned benchmark bars.
Alpha

Macro Context

IndicatorValueSignal
Market regimeRisk-on 0.79Trend support, not a timing trigger
VIX14.51Low current protection price

Regime: risk-on

The broad regime supports long setups, but rates and ticker-specific confirmation override the label.

Risk Analysis

Risk Profile: High

Dilution: moderate; beta: 1.10; insider signal: bearish.

Trade Structure

High
  • First-target reward/risk at confirmation: 1.38R
  • Wait state: Reclaim $66.21 and VWAP.
Probability
Impact
Reclaim $66.21 and VWAP

Capital and Dilution

Medium
  • Financing dilution is low, but employee issuance was net dilutive: about 3.1M shares issued versus 0.9M repurchased in the first half; $1.8B of buyback authority remained.
  • IBNR reserves of $12.9B and a $481M risk-adjustment benefit make earnings quality sensitive to estimates.
  • $970M of receivable sales in operating cash flow, $315M-$365M of 2026 severance and CMS/securities litigation weaken comparability.
Probability
Impact
SEC review: moderate dilution risk. Filings and accessions are listed below.

Positioning

Medium
  • 0 insider buys vs 1 sells
  • Short interest: 3.1%
Probability
Impact
Positioning is context, not a standalone trigger.

Risk Synthesis

A precise stop does not make a setup valid. Entry location, normal volatility, event risk and reachable resistance decide whether the risk is paid.

Social Radar

Stocktwits
30
neutral
7691 watchers; not used as a trigger.
Aggregate sentiment
2
positive
Confidence 24.1%.

Pump & Dump Score: 0/6

Clean
No recent halt flag
Short interest below 20%
SEC-reviewed dilution risk is moderate

Capital Flow

N/A
Net Flow
N/A
Institutional
N/A
Retail
N/A
Dark Pool %

No directional flow claim is made when detailed, aligned flow data is unavailable.

Trade Idea

WAIT — Wait state: Reclaim $66.21 and VWAP.
Entry Zone
$65.30
Original zone $64.90-$65.70. Reclaim $66.21 and VWAP. At the conservative $66.21 confirmation price, TP1 pays 1.38R.
Stop Loss
$61.96
-5.69% risk
Target 1
$72.06
9.68% upside
Risk/Reward
Confirmation TP1 1:1.38; original plan 1:1.70
10 trading sessions

Thesis

Wait; insider flow is negative. Monitor reclaim $66.21 and vwap; no market order and no chase outside the zone.

Catalysts

  • Zacks — A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Centene (CNC). Shares have added about 5.9% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.
  • Crowded-positioning pressure is flagged, but it is not an entry trigger.
  • Reclaim $66.21 and VWAP

Invalidation

  • Below $61.96
  • Wait state: Reclaim $66.21 and VWAP.
  • Any earnings, clinical, regulatory or financing event before entry requires a fresh review.

Global Score

C- Healthcare Neutral

Key Takeaways — Positive

  • Defined trigger: Reclaim $66.21 and VWAP
  • Dilution assessment after filing review: moderate
  • Revenue growth: 4.6%

Key Takeaways — Risks

  • Wait state: Reclaim $66.21 and VWAP.
  • First-target R/R at confirmation: 1.38R
  • IBNR reserves of $12.9B and a $481M risk-adjustment benefit make earnings quality sensitive to estimates.
  • $970M of receivable sales in operating cash flow, $315M-$365M of 2026 severance and CMS/securities litigation weaken comparability.

Mindset Tip

Wait for confirmation and preserve the invalidation.

Disclaimer

This analysis is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or solicitation to buy or sell any security.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Always conduct your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Data comes from point-in-time market snapshots, company filings, Yahoo Finance, SEC EDGAR, and public market data. Accuracy is not guaranteed.

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