Corpay is a rare value-plus-growth combination: a double-digit organic grower in corporate payments and cross-border FX trading at just 12.8x forward earnings, with five consecutive earnings beats MarketBeat· jun 2026 and an aggressively shrinking share count. The stock sits 2-3% under its all-time high near a rising EMA20 — a textbook buy-the-shallow-dip setup on a high-quality compounder.
Corpay (formerly FLEETCOR) is a global corporate-payments platform that helps businesses control how they pay suppliers, employees and vendors. The company runs three core engines: Vehicle Payments (fuel cards, fleet and tolls — the legacy cash cow), Corporate Payments (AP automation, virtual cards and commercial payments), and Cross-Border (B2B FX hedging and international payments) StockAnalysis· jun 2026.
The model is a high-margin, recurring, transaction-fee business with deep network effects and switching costs — adj. EBITDA margins run above 54%. Management is deliberately shifting the mix toward Corporate Payments and Cross-Border, where organic growth is fastest. The $2.4B Alpha Group acquisition (closed Nov 2025) materially expands the cross-border FX franchise across the UK and Europe, while the Avid deal deepens North-American AP automation Nasdaq· nov 2025.
| Date | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| May 2026 | Q1'26 beat: revenue +25% to $1.26B, adj. EPS $5.80 (+29% YoY), net income +44% to $350M | Positive |
| May 2026 | FY26 guidance raised: revenue $5.25–$5.33B, adj. EPS $26.30–$27.10 | Positive |
| Q1 2026 | Repurchased 2.4M shares for $786M; board adds $1B to buyback authorization | Positive |
| Nov 2025 | Closed $2.4B all-cash acquisition of Alpha Group; upsized revolver to $2.775B | Neutral / Strategic |
| Metric | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (TTM) | $4.78B | +18% YoY |
| Adj. EBITDA (Q1'26) | $689M | +24% YoY |
| Adj. EBITDA Margin | 54.6% | Best-in-class |
| Net Income (Q1'26) | $350M | +44% YoY |
| EPS (TTM, GAAP) | $16.67 | Growing |
| Cash & Equivalents | $2.54B | Strong |
| Total Debt | $10.36B | Elevated (post-Alpha) |
| P/E (TTM) | 21.4x | Reasonable |
| Fwd P/E | 12.8x | Cheap for growth |
| Analyst Target | $395 (avg) | +11% upside · Buy |
The headline here is the 12.8x forward P/E paired with ~11% organic growth for the fourth consecutive quarter and 54%+ EBITDA margins — a combination that usually commands 20x+. FY26 guidance of $26.30–$27.10 adjusted EPS against a $356 price is what produces that low multiple. The single caveat is the balance sheet: gross debt of $10.4B (vs $2.5B cash) funded the Alpha deal, so net leverage is meaningful — but it is serviced by a highly cash-generative, recurring-revenue business, not speculative.
Five consecutive quarters of beating consensus — the kind of consistency that re-rates a multiple over time:
| Quarter | Actual EPS | Est. EPS | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | $5.80 | $5.50 | Beat +5.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $6.04 | $5.93 | Beat +1.9% |
| Q3 2025 | $5.70 | $5.63 | Beat +1.2% |
| Q2 2025 | $5.13 | $5.11 | Beat +0.4% |
The streak extends one quarter further: Q1'25 also beat ($4.51 vs $4.50 est), making five consecutive quarters. Q1'26 was the largest-magnitude beat of the streak, accompanied by a guidance raise — a sign the business is accelerating, not coasting Quartr· may 2026.
Corpay funded its M&A with debt and cash, and is actively retiring stock through a large buyback. The only balance-sheet watch item is leverage (covered in Risks), not share dilution.
| RSI (14) | 58 |
| EMA 20 | $348.42 |
| EMA 50 | $336.11 |
| EMA 200 | $320.43 |
| ATR (14) | $10.98 |
| Extension vs EMA20 | +2.2% |
| 52W Range | $252.84 – $367.43 |
Clean, stacked bullish structure: EMA20 ($348.42) > EMA50 ($336.11) > EMA200 ($320.43), with price at $356.11 just 3% under the 52-week high of $367.43. RSI at 58 is squarely in the healthy momentum band — neither oversold nor overheated — and the stock is only +2.2% extended above its rising 20-day EMA. ATR of $10.98 (~3.1%) frames clean risk. This is a controlled uptrend offering a low-risk entry on any shallow pullback toward the EMA20, rather than a stretched chase.
Corpay competes in the global B2B / corporate-payments arena. On a forward-earnings basis it screens as one of the cheapest names in its quality cohort:
| Company | Fwd P/E | Profile |
|---|---|---|
| Corpay (CPAY) | ~12.8x | Cheapest of cohort |
| WEX Inc. (WEX) | ~9–11x | Cheaper, slower growth |
| Global Payments (GPN) | ~7–9x | Value, growth concerns |
| FleetCor / fintech peers | ~15–25x | Higher multiple |
| Visa / Mastercard | ~25–30x | Premium network rails |
Corpay's beta of 0.87 means it is slightly less volatile than the broad market — a defensive tilt for a fintech growth name StockAnalysis· jun 2026.
High-quality, cash-generative compounder with a clean share structure. The principal watch items are post-acquisition leverage and FX-volume sensitivity in cross-border — both manageable, neither existential.
This is not a speculative small-cap — there is no dilution, no cash-burn, no going-concern question. The risk is concentrated in one place: the balance sheet leverage taken on for Alpha. But that debt is matched against a ~54% EBITDA-margin, recurring-revenue machine generating ~$700M of quarterly EBITDA and a multi-billion buyback. The fundamentals are strong enough that the stock can absorb a leverage or FX wobble without breaking the thesis.
Buy a high-quality double-digit compounder at a value multiple. With the entry at $351 (a limit just below spot, near the rising EMA20), the stop at $330 risks $21 to capture $39 of reward at TP1 — a clean 1.9:1 reward-to-risk, stretching to 3.5:1 at TP2. The catalyst path is concrete: five straight beats, a raised FY26 guide, an actively shrinking float, and Alpha/Avid synergies layering into H2'26 EPS. At 12.8x forward earnings the downside is cushioned by value; the upside is the analyst target ($395 avg) and a re-rating toward peer multiples.
Near-term probabilistic zone (~80% band) on a 5-10 day horizon: roughly $338 – $374, centered just above the current $356 given the constructive trend and stacked EMAs.
Quantitative projection only. Exclude earnings windows (±3 days).
This analysis is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or solicitation to buy or sell any security.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Always conduct your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Data sourced from Yahoo Finance, StockAnalysis.com, MarketBeat, SEC EDGAR, and public market data. Price forecast is a quantitative model output, not a guarantee. Accuracy is not guaranteed.