DailyTickers

CPAY — Corpay, Inc.

NYSE · Software / Fintech · 2026-06-14
$0.00 +0.00% Value + Growth A+ Compounder Score 50 A+
$23.3B
Market Cap
12.8x
Fwd P/E
0.87
Beta
$252 – $367
52W Range
None
Div Yield
$395
Analyst Target
CPAY Chart
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Verdict Express

A+ Neutral 3% confidence

Corpay is a rare value-plus-growth combination: a double-digit organic grower in corporate payments and cross-border FX trading at just 12.8x forward earnings, with five consecutive earnings beats MarketBeat· jun 2026 and an aggressively shrinking share count. The stock sits 2-3% under its all-time high near a rising EMA20 — a textbook buy-the-shallow-dip setup on a high-quality compounder.

Why Buy

  • 5 straight earnings beats; Q1'26 adj. EPS $5.80 vs $5.50 est (+29% YoY)
  • Forward P/E ~12.8x — cheap for a double-digit compounder
  • 38M shares bought back ($9.4B); ~$1.7B authorization remaining
  • Adj. EBITDA margin 54.6%; 93.5% client retention
  • Alpha + Avid synergies layer into H2'26 EPS

Why Avoid

  • $10.4B gross debt taken on for Alpha — rate & integration risk
  • Cross-border revenue is FX-volume sensitive
  • Near all-time highs — limited margin for execution slips

Business Overview

Corpay (formerly FLEETCOR) is a global corporate-payments platform that helps businesses control how they pay suppliers, employees and vendors. The company runs three core engines: Vehicle Payments (fuel cards, fleet and tolls — the legacy cash cow), Corporate Payments (AP automation, virtual cards and commercial payments), and Cross-Border (B2B FX hedging and international payments) StockAnalysis· jun 2026.

The model is a high-margin, recurring, transaction-fee business with deep network effects and switching costs — adj. EBITDA margins run above 54%. Management is deliberately shifting the mix toward Corporate Payments and Cross-Border, where organic growth is fastest. The $2.4B Alpha Group acquisition (closed Nov 2025) materially expands the cross-border FX franchise across the UK and Europe, while the Avid deal deepens North-American AP automation Nasdaq· nov 2025.

Fundamentals

MetricValueSignal
Revenue (TTM)$4.78B+18% YoY
Adj. EBITDA (Q1'26)$689M+24% YoY
Adj. EBITDA Margin54.6%Best-in-class
Net Income (Q1'26)$350M+44% YoY
EPS (TTM, GAAP)$16.67Growing
Cash & Equivalents$2.54BStrong
Total Debt$10.36BElevated (post-Alpha)
P/E (TTM)21.4xReasonable
Fwd P/E12.8xCheap for growth
Analyst Target$395 (avg)+11% upside · Buy

Capital Structure & Dilution

N/A
Shares Out.
N/A
Authorized
low
Dilution Risk

Technical Analysis

RSI (14)58.0
EMA 20$2.20
EMA 50$336.11
EMA 200$320.43
MACD0.000
ATR (14)$10.98
Above EMA200 Above EMA50 Above EMA20 RSI Neutral-Bullish

Technical Setup

Clean, stacked bullish structure: EMA20 ($348.42) > EMA50 ($336.11) > EMA200 ($320.43), with price at $356.11 just 3% under the 52-week high of $367.43. RSI at 58 is squarely in the healthy momentum band — neither oversold nor overheated — and the stock is only +2.2% extended above its rising 20-day EMA. ATR of $10.98 (~3.1%) frames clean risk. This is a controlled uptrend offering a low-risk entry on any shallow pullback toward the EMA20, rather than a stretched chase.

Risk Analysis

Risk Profile: Moderate

High-quality, cash-generative compounder with a clean share structure. The principal watch items are post-acquisition leverage — $10.36B gross debt, 2.7x net leverage at quarter-end SEC 10-Q· may 2026 — and FX-volume sensitivity in cross-border. Both are manageable, neither existential.

Post-Alpha Leverage

Medium
  • $10.4B gross debt: $8.2B under the credit agreement + $2.1B securitization
  • $900M seven-year Term Loan B + $1B incremental revolver funded Alpha
  • Rising or sticky rates raise interest expense on floating tranches
Probability
Impact
Serviced by $689M quarterly EBITDA; leverage falls as synergies and buyback compound.

FX & Cross-Border Volume

Medium
  • Cross-border revenue scales with B2B FX hedging volumes
  • A sharp slowdown in trade or corporate FX activity compresses flow
  • Alpha integration adds execution and migration risk near-term
Probability
Impact
Vehicle Payments cash flow stabilizes the base; 93.5% retention cushions volume swings.

Valuation / Proximity to ATH

Low
  • Price 3% under all-time high — less cushion for a miss
  • Any guide-down would compress the multiple from depressed levels
Probability
Impact
12.8x forward P/E already prices conservatism; downside is limited by value support.

Risk Synthesis

This is not a speculative small-cap — there is no dilution, no cash-burn, no going-concern question. The risk is concentrated in one place: the balance sheet leverage taken on for Alpha. But that debt is matched against a ~54% EBITDA-margin, recurring-revenue machine generating ~$700M of quarterly EBITDA and a multi-billion buyback. The fundamentals are strong enough that the stock can absorb a leverage or FX wobble without breaking the thesis.

Trade Idea

Entry Zone
$351.00
Stop Loss
$330.00
-6.0% risk
Target 1
$390.00
+11.1% upside
Target 2
$425.00
+21.1% upside
Risk/Reward
1:1.9

Thesis

Buy a high-quality double-digit compounder at a value multiple. With the entry at $351 (a limit just below spot, near the rising EMA20), the stop at $330 risks $21 to capture $39 of reward at TP1 — a clean 1.9:1 reward-to-risk, stretching to 3.5:1 at TP2. The catalyst path is concrete: five straight beats, a raised FY26 guide, an actively shrinking float, and Alpha/Avid synergies layering into H2'26 EPS. At 12.8x forward earnings the downside is cushioned by value; the upside is the analyst target ($395 avg, Buy consensus) MarketBeat· jun 2026 and a re-rating toward peer multiples.

Catalysts

  • Q1'26 adj. EPS $5.80 vs $5.50 est (+29% YoY) — strongest beat of the streak
  • 5 consecutive beats: $5.80, $6.04, $5.70, $5.13, $4.51 — reliable outperformance
  • FY26 guidance raised to $26.30–$27.10 adj. EPS; revenue $5.25–$5.33B
  • ~$1.7B buyback authorization remaining — ongoing EPS accretion

Invalidation

  • Daily close below $330 (under EMA50) — trend break, exit
  • A guidance cut or organic-growth deceleration below mid-single digits
  • A sharp rate/credit shock that materially raises debt-service cost

Disclaimer

This analysis is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or solicitation to buy or sell any security.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Always conduct your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Data sourced from DailyTickers Gateway, Yahoo Finance, SEC EDGAR, and public market data. Accuracy is not guaranteed.

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