CoreWeave is the purest listed expression of hyperscale GPU scarcity, but the equity is also a leveraged claim on flawless datacenter delivery. Q2 2026 revenue rose 112.5% to $2.58 billion and adjusted EBITDA reached $1.51 billion, while backlog stood near $104 billion before more than $25 billion of early-Q3 commitments. That demand signal is exceptional. The counterweight is equally concrete: Q2 capital expenditure was $6.42 billion, quarterly interest expense was $640 million, GAAP net loss was $626 million, and full-year capex guidance is $35-$39 billion. Customer concentration, lease commitments and a disclosed material weakness make the balance-sheet-funded growth model less forgiving than the revenue chart suggests. The July 31 legal denominator is 551.537 million Class A plus Class B shares, implying about $48.12 billion of equity value and $94.19 billion of enterprise value at the August 28 snapshot. That is roughly 12.4x trailing revenue and 24.8x EBITDA. The C- grade measures fundamental quality; the $87.73 setup remains only a watch.
CoreWeave rents GPU-accelerated compute and related storage, networking and managed software under capacity contracts. Revenue is driven by deployed clusters, contracted utilization, pricing and the speed with which powered shells become billable infrastructure.
The direct AI transmission channel is customer demand for training and inference on NVIDIA systems: signed commitments support datacenter and GPU purchases, and completed deployments convert backlog into cloud revenue. Active power of 1.5 GW versus roughly 3.7 GW contracted shows both the opportunity and the delivery gap.
The model breaks if a concentrated customer base delays workloads, facilities or chips arrive late, power is unavailable, or debt and lease funding becomes uneconomic. Because capex and interest precede revenue, even a modest commissioning delay can damage liquidity and equity value before it appears in backlog. Commissioning discipline must therefore be judged quarter by quarter against active power, capital expenditure, interest expense and customer collections, rather than inferred from the nominal backlog alone.
| Segment | Revenue | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Cloud services - single reportable segment | Accelerated-compute capacity, storage, networking and managed software constitute CoreWeave's reported operating business; contracted but undelivered capacity is backlog, not a second segment. | |
| Backlog disclosure - non-segment | Contracted but undelivered capacity is shown separately only to reconcile future obligations with the sole reportable segment; it is not current revenue or an operating segment. |
| Metric | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 revenue | $2.575B | +112.5% YoY |
| Q2 adjusted EBITDA | $1.510B | 59% non-GAAP margin |
| Q2 GAAP net loss | ($626M) | 24% of revenue |
| FY2026 revenue guide | $12.4B-$13.2B | Official outlook |
| FY2026 capex guide | $35B-$39B | Capital intensity dominates |
| Market capitalization | ~$48.12B | August 28, 2026 snapshot at $87.2399 times 551,536,602 Class A plus Class B shares; versus the vendor's incomplete Class A-only denominator |
| Enterprise value bridge | ~$94.19B | August 28, 2026 basis: $48.12B equity value plus $51.61B debt less $5.54B cash; implies 12.4x trailing revenue versus APLD 21.9x |
| EV/Revenue | ~12.4x trailing | August 28, 2026 basis; 12.4x versus APLD 21.9x and CORZ 18.7x trailing EV/revenue |
| EV/EBITDA | ~24.8x trailing | August 28, 2026 basis; 24.8x versus CORZ's unavailable trailing EBITDA multiple and APLD's loss-making trailing base; the premium requires commissioned capacity to outrun interest growth |
| Revenue (TTM) | $7.59B | 112.5% YoY |
| Gross Margin | 67.4% | Reported |
| Operating Margin | -1.9% | Loss-making |
| Net Margin | -25.4% | Negative |
| ROE | -43.6% | Capital efficiency |
| Cash | $5.54B | Liquidity; sector accounting may limit direct debt netting |
| Debt | $51.61B | Balance-sheet claim |
| Intrinsic-value model | N/A | Fail-closed: insufficient or non-economic output |
| Value / quality panel | 0 positive / 5 negative / 0 neutral | bearish / confidence 52 |
| Fundamental grade audit | 47/100 (C-) | base +55, growth +14, grossMargin +4, operatingMargin +1, earningsGrowth +0, roe +0, balanceSheet -4, qualityBoard -6, capitalStructure -9, controls -8; capped score 47/100 |
| Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Est. | Surprise | Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2Q2025 | $-0.27 | $-0.21 | -29.8% | - |
| 3Q2025 | $-0.22 | $-0.48 | 54.4% | - |
| 4Q2025 | $-0.89 | $-0.68 | -30.0% | - |
| 2Q2026 | $-1.14 | $-1.47 | 22.4% | - |
Q2 2026 revenue was $2.575B, up 112.5% YoY. GAAP operating loss was $49M, a negative 2% margin, and GAAP net loss was $626M, or $1.14 per diluted share. Non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA was $1.510B at a 59% margin, down from 62% a year earlier. Management guided Q3 revenue to $3.45B-$3.60B and FY2026 revenue to $12.4B-$13.2B, with FY capex of $35B-$39B. The caveat is financial intensity: Q2 interest expense was $640M and Q3 interest guidance is $860M-$940M. No confirmed CoreWeave next-earnings date was available in the official investor calendar reviewed. — Next: Not confirmed
No structured transaction table was captured.
The July 31 legal denominator is exactly 551,536,602 common shares: 458,871,690 Class A plus 92,664,912 Class B and no Class C. At the $87.2399 August 28 snapshot, that denominator implies approximately $48.12B market capitalization; adding $51.61B of reported debt and subtracting $5.54B cash produces an explicit approximately $94.19B enterprise-value bridge. The 10-Q separately reports about 29M unvested awards, while convertible notes may settle in cash, shares or both. A fixed fully diluted count is therefore unavailable and those claims remain outside the legal denominator. The S-3ASR is capacity, not a sale, and the terminated Core Scientific merger prospectus is not current financing.
6 decision-relevant primary filing(s) are displayed with accession-specific findings. Grade C- measures fundamentals; trade state watch measures timing and is evaluated separately.
| Date | Form | Accession | What the filing changes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-12 | 10-Q | 0001769628-26-000366 | The June 2026 Form 10-Q reports $2.575B quarterly revenue, $6.422B capital expenditure, $640M interest expense and continuing material-weakness language, establishing both operating scale and control risk. |
| 2026-03-02 | 10-K | 0001769628-26-000104 | The 2025 Form 10-K establishes the annual debt, lease, customer-concentration and internal-control baseline; it supports affirmative material-weakness disclosure but does not contain the later Q2 operating KPIs. |
| 2026-08-11 | 8-K | 0001769628-26-000362 | This earnings Form 8-K furnishes Q2 revenue of $2.575B, adjusted EBITDA of $1.510B and FY2026 revenue guidance of $12.4B-$13.2B through its direct Exhibit 99.1. This classification controls the editorial conclusion. |
| 2026-06-05 | S-3ASR | 0001628280-26-041300 | The June S-3ASR is an automatic shelf registration statement providing potential securities capacity; it does not identify a completed common-stock sale, ATM draw or specific issuance amount. |
| 2025-09-26 | EFFECT | 9999999995-25-003116 | This EFFECT notice confirms only that the referenced registration statement became effective; it supplies no evidence that CoreWeave sold shares, issued debt or received financing proceeds. |
| 2025-09-26 | 424B3 | 0001140361-25-036349 | The September 424B3 covers the proposed Core Scientific merger consideration and related transaction securities; because that merger was terminated, it is historical transaction documentation, not current financing capacity. |
CRWV point-in-time short-interest context only; no acceleration claim without a comparable dated series.
Unusual Activity: No unusual activity confirmed
| RSI (14) | 46.0 |
| EMA 20 | $89.83 |
| EMA 50 | $91.29 |
| EMA 200 | $99.02 |
| MACD | 0.270 |
| Signal | 1.148 |
| ATR (14) | $7.58 |
| Wyckoff | Transitional |
CRWV remains a watch beneath $87.73. Activation requires a completed 15-minute close above $87.73 with non-zero regular-session volume; the unchanged stop is $83.18. The observed RTH opening range at 2026-08-28T13:30:00Z printed $87.73 high and $84.76 low, while the quote was $87.24 at 2026-08-28T13:45:00Z. EMA, ATR, RSI and pivots use sessions closed through August 27. With TP1 offering 1.63R, backlog strength does not justify anticipating confirmation. Daily indicators and pivots run only through the 2026-08-27 close.
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Reference close | 2026-08-27 | Daily structure is point-in-time controlled |
| Quote snapshot | 2026-08-28T13:45:00Z | Exact timestamp; not represented as a publication-time live quote |
| Opening observation | 2026-08-28T13:30:00Z | Regular-session range used for the single activation level |
Regime: risk-on
CoreWeave sits between NVIDIA supply, utility interconnection and hyperscaler AI budgets. Strong chip demand helps only when GPUs, power and buildings are commissioned together; higher credit spreads or delayed grid energization hit cash needs immediately because interest and capex precede customer revenue.
The core risk is not weak AI demand but a timing mismatch between debt-funded construction and billable capacity. Concentrated customers, control remediation and refinancing terms can turn a small execution miss into a large equity drawdown.
Treat backlog as conditional future revenue, not cash. Retail war-room: finance only a small unit after $87.73 confirms, use a limit order, budget spread and slippage before $83.18, and do not chase an after-hours customer headline. Thin liquidity can gap through the exit; a financing-filing event vetoes entry until regular-session depth returns.
CRWV: directional flow remains unscored because no dated, inspectable transaction-level source was captured.
Remain inactive unless a completed 15-minute close above the unchanged $87.73 entry with non-zero regular-session volume confirms that buyers can absorb the post-results financing risk; only after activation does the unchanged $83.18 stop apply. Position sizing must reflect the 1.63R first target, customer concentration, material weakness and the possibility that financing news overwhelms otherwise strong operating demand.
Treat backlog as conditional future revenue, not cash. Current trade state: watch.
This analysis is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or solicitation to buy or sell any security.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Always conduct your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Data comes from point-in-time market snapshots, company filings, Yahoo Finance, SEC EDGAR, and public market data. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
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