20 Jun 2026 — Grade downgraded from A+ to A. Spot $109.11 has pulled back from $113.83 at publication; RSI dropped to 45.8, below the 50 floor required for the momentum axis of a perfect A+ reading. Fundamentals, valuation (Fwd PE 13.1x, R/R 3.62 at spot) and EMA stack remain intact — a recovery above RSI 50 would make this a strong re-entry point.
Deckers just closed a record $5.47B fiscal year as HOKA and UGG both hit all-time highs, and management lifted its 2027 guide while unveiling a 2030 framework targeting low-double-digit EPS growth Deckers IR· mai 2026. This is rare: best-in-class brand heat trading at a 15x forward multiple, with a net-cash balance sheet, 41% ROE and a fresh $5B buyback. The stock has firmed +5.3% over the past week yet still sits ~10% off its 52-week high — a clean momentum-with-margin-of-safety setup.
Deckers Brands is a global designer and marketer of premium footwear and apparel built around two powerhouse brands. HOKA is the explosive performance-running franchise that crossed $2.59B in FY26 revenue (+16%), with its largest quarter ever at $671M, while UGG is the iconic sheepskin lifestyle brand that grew 8% to $2.74B as it broadened beyond classic boots into year-round sneakers and slides BigGo Finance· mai 2026.
The model is deliberately capital-light: Deckers designs and markets the product, sells through a fast-growing direct-to-consumer channel plus premium wholesale, and outsources manufacturing. That structure is what produces the eye-catching 40.9% ROE and ~$1.1B of annual free cash flow. Smaller brands (Teva, Sanuk, Koolaburra, AHNU) round out the portfolio but the thesis lives and dies with HOKA and UGG. Management's new 2030 framework guides to low-double-digit EPS growth, funded by mid-single-to-low-double-digit revenue and an aggressive buyback AskTraders· mai 2026.
| Date | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| 21 May 2026 | FY26 results: record $5.47B revenue (+10%), EPS $7.02 (+11%); 2027 guide raised; 2030 framework unveiled | Positive |
| 21 May 2026 | Board expands buyback authorization by $3.5B to ~$5B total | Positive |
| FY26 | HOKA hits record $2.59B (+16%); UGG reaches $2.74B (+8%) | Positive |
| FY26 | $1.075B of stock repurchased (~10.5M shares retired) | Positive |
| 2027 Guide | Revenue $5.86–$5.91B, diluted EPS $7.30–$7.45 | Neutral |
| Metric | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (TTM) | $5.47B | +10% YoY |
| EBITDA | $1.34B | ~24.5% margin |
| Gross Margin | 57.7% | Best-in-class |
| Operating Margin | 23.1% | Strong |
| Net Margin | 18.7% | Strong |
| ROE | 40.9% | Elite |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.10B | FCF margin ~20% |
| Cash | $1.91B | Net cash |
| Debt | $375M | D/E 0.15 |
| EPS (TTM) | $7.02 | +11% YoY |
| Fwd P/E | 15.3x | Value vs quality |
| Analyst Target | $126.86 avg ($90–$184) | Buy consensus (26 analysts) |
| Dividend Yield | None | Buyback-only return |
The headline is the combination: a company growing revenue at high-single-digits and EPS at low-double-digits, with 57.7% gross margins and a 40.9% ROE, is trading at just 15.3x forward earnings — roughly a market multiple for a clearly above-market business. With $1.91B of cash against $375M of debt, Deckers is effectively net cash and funds its entire shareholder-return program from free cash flow rather than the balance sheet.
A SEC EDGAR review of Deckers (CIK 0000910521) confirms a clean capital structure with no active dilution machinery. The recent filing set contains only routine items: one S-8 (employee equity plan), Form 4 insider transactions, Schedule 13G/13G-A passive institutional accumulations, the annual 10-K, and the 8-K announcing record results plus the buyback. There is no S-3, no S-3ASR shelf, no S-1, no 424B prospectus and no at-the-market (ATM) equity program — none of the toxic-financing signals (Wainwright/Maxim deals, convertibles, PIPEs, warrants) that would threaten existing holders SEC EDGAR· juin 2026.
No active ATM, S-3 equity shelf, M&A stock, mandatory convertibles or heavy SBC overhang. Deckers is a buyer of its own stock, not a serial issuer — the opposite of a dilution risk.
| RSI (14) | 45.8 |
| EMA 20 | $108.88 |
| EMA 50 | $106.30 |
| EMA 200 | $104.13 |
| ATR (14) | $3.70 |
| Ext. vs EMA20 | +0.2% |
| 52W Range | $78.91 – $126.50 |
EMA stack remains bullish: price $109.11 > EMA20 $108.88 > EMA50 $106.30 > EMA200 $104.13 — all three moving averages aligned and rising. However, RSI has dropped to 45.8, below the 50 momentum floor, signaling near-term digestion after the pullback from $113.83. The stock now sits just 0.2% above its EMA20, offering a low-extension entry if momentum resumes. ATR of $3.70 (~3.4%) keeps risk definable. The stock trades ~14% below its $126.50 52-week high, leaving significant headroom. A confirmed close back above RSI 50 would re-establish momentum and make this a strong swing entry. Yahoo Finance· live
A high-quality, net-cash compounder with elite margins and a clean cap table. The main risks are macro/cyclical (discretionary demand) and brand concentration rather than balance-sheet or dilution risk.
The balance sheet (net cash, $1.1B FCF) and clean cap table take financing and dilution risk off the table entirely. What keeps this a 4/10 rather than a 2/10 is the cyclical nature of premium discretionary spending and the fact that two brands carry essentially the entire P&L. Neither is acute today — both brands are growing, guidance is conservative, and the 15x multiple already discounts a normalization in HOKA's growth rate. StockAnalysis· juin 2026
Deckers offers the rare combination of growth, quality and value: a record $5.47B year, 40.9% ROE and a net-cash balance sheet, now available at 13.1x forward earnings after the pullback to $109, with a fresh $5B buyback underneath the stock. The entry zone of $109-$110 sits right at EMA20 support, offering a far superior R/R of 1:3.62 to TP1 versus the original setup. Wait for RSI to reclaim 50 before sizing up — a confirmed momentum recovery at this valuation makes the asymmetry compelling. GuruFocus· mai 2026
This analysis is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or solicitation to buy or sell any security.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Always conduct your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
The trade idea above (entry, stop, targets) is a hypothetical, illustrative scenario for educational purposes — not a personalized recommendation. Price levels and figures are accurate as of 14 juin 2026 and will change; verify live data before acting. At the time of publication, DailyTickers and its authors held no position in DECK and received no compensation for this analysis.
Data sourced from Yahoo Finance, StockAnalysis.com, SEC EDGAR, and Deckers Brands investor relations. Accuracy is not guaranteed.