DECK — Deckers Outdoor Corp

NYSE · Consumer Discretionary — Footwear/Apparel · 14 juin 2026
$113.83 +5.7% (5d) Momentum Score 94 A+ ☮ Halal
$15.8B
Market Cap
1.49M
Volume
15.3x
Fwd P/E
1.15
Beta
$78.91 – $126.50
52W Range
138.9M
Shares Out
40.9%
ROE
DECK Chart
Click to enlarge

Verdict Express

A+ Bullish High confidence

Deckers just closed a record $5.47B fiscal year as HOKA and UGG both hit all-time highs, and management lifted its 2027 guide while unveiling a 2030 framework targeting low-double-digit EPS growth Deckers IR· mai 2026. This is rare: best-in-class brand heat trading at a 15x forward multiple, with a net-cash balance sheet, 41% ROE and a fresh $5B buyback. The stock sits ~10% off its 52-week high after a post-print pop — a clean momentum-with-margin-of-safety setup.

Why Buy

  • Five consecutive earnings beats — HOKA +16% to $2.59B, UGG +8% to $2.74B
  • Forward P/E 15.3x — cheap for ~57.7% gross / 23% operating margins
  • Net cash: $1.91B cash vs $375M debt, $1.10B free cash flow
  • Fresh $5B buyback; share count already down 3.3% YoY
  • ROE 40.9% — capital-light, royalty-like brand economics

Why Avoid

  • Discretionary footwear demand is sensitive to the consumer cycle
  • HOKA growth decelerating from hyper-growth to low-double-digits
  • Two-brand concentration — ~98% of revenue is HOKA + UGG
  • Tariffs on Asian-sourced footwear pressure gross margin

Business Overview

Deckers Brands is a global designer and marketer of premium footwear and apparel built around two powerhouse brands. HOKA is the explosive performance-running franchise that crossed $2.59B in FY26 revenue (+16%), with its largest quarter ever at $671M, while UGG is the iconic sheepskin lifestyle brand that grew 8% to $2.74B as it broadened beyond classic boots into year-round sneakers and slides BigGo Finance· mai 2026.

The model is deliberately capital-light: Deckers designs and markets the product, sells through a fast-growing direct-to-consumer channel plus premium wholesale, and outsources manufacturing. That structure is what produces the eye-catching 40.9% ROE and ~$1.1B of annual free cash flow. Smaller brands (Teva, Sanuk, Koolaburra, AHNU) round out the portfolio but the thesis lives and dies with HOKA and UGG. Management's new 2030 framework guides to low-double-digit EPS growth, funded by mid-single-to-low-double-digit revenue and an aggressive buyback AskTraders· mai 2026.

Recent News

DateEventImpact
21 May 2026FY26 results: record $5.47B revenue (+10%), EPS $7.02 (+11%); 2027 guide raised; 2030 framework unveiledPositive
21 May 2026Board expands buyback authorization by $3.5B to ~$5B totalPositive
FY26HOKA hits record $2.59B (+16%); UGG reaches $2.74B (+8%)Positive
FY26$1.075B of stock repurchased (~10.5M shares retired)Positive
2027 GuideRevenue $5.86–$5.91B, diluted EPS $7.30–$7.45Neutral

Fundamentals

MetricValueSignal
Revenue (TTM)$5.47B+10% YoY
EBITDA$1.34B~24.5% margin
Gross Margin57.7%Best-in-class
Operating Margin23.1%Strong
Net Margin18.7%Strong
ROE40.9%Elite
Free Cash Flow$1.10BFCF margin ~20%
Cash$1.91BNet cash
Debt$375MD/E 0.15
EPS (TTM)$7.02+11% YoY
Fwd P/E15.3xValue vs quality
Analyst Target$126.86 avg ($90–$184)Buy consensus (26 analysts)
Dividend YieldNoneBuyback-only return

The headline is the combination: a company growing revenue at high-single-digits and EPS at low-double-digits, with 57.7% gross margins and a 40.9% ROE, is trading at just 15.3x forward earnings — roughly a market multiple for a clearly above-market business. With $1.91B of cash against $375M of debt, Deckers is effectively net cash and funds its entire shareholder-return program from free cash flow rather than the balance sheet.

Capital Structure & Dilution

A SEC EDGAR review of Deckers (CIK 0000910521) confirms a clean capital structure with no active dilution machinery. The recent filing set contains only routine items: one S-8 (employee equity plan), Form 4 insider transactions, Schedule 13G/13G-A passive institutional accumulations, the annual 10-K, and the 8-K announcing record results plus the buyback. There is no S-3, no S-3ASR shelf, no S-1, no 424B prospectus and no at-the-market (ATM) equity program — none of the toxic-financing signals (Wainwright/Maxim deals, convertibles, PIPEs, warrants) that would threaten existing holders SEC EDGAR· juin 2026.

Share Count

Anti-dilutive
  • 138.9M shares outstanding
  • Down 3.3% YoY via buybacks
  • 10.5M shares retired in FY26
Float is shrinking, not expanding

Buyback

Supportive
  • ~$5B authorization (raised $3.5B in May)
  • Funded by FCF, not debt
  • ~32% of market cap authorized
Persistent demand for the stock

Dilution Filings

None
  • No S-3 / S-1 / 424B
  • No ATM, no convertibles, no warrants
  • S-8 employee plan only
Zero equity-raise overhang

Dilution Verdict: CLEAN

No active ATM, S-3 equity shelf, M&A stock, mandatory convertibles or heavy SBC overhang. Deckers is a buyer of its own stock, not a serial issuer — the opposite of a dilution risk.

Technical Analysis

RSI (14)62
EMA 20$108.74
EMA 50$106.30
EMA 200$104.13
ATR (14)$3.70
Ext. vs EMA20+4.7%
52W Range$78.91 – $126.50
Above EMA200 Above EMA50 Above EMA20 RSI Healthy

Technical Setup

Clean bullish stack: price $113.83 > EMA20 $108.74 > EMA50 $106.30 > EMA200 $104.13 — all three moving averages aligned and rising after a +5.7% advance over the past week. RSI at ~62 is firmly in the momentum zone without being overbought, and the stock is only ~4.7% extended above its 20-day EMA, so it is not chasing. ATR of $3.70 (~3.2%) keeps risk definable. The stock trades ~10% below its $126.50 52-week high, leaving headroom toward prior congestion before any resistance. A pullback into the $112–$108 EMA cluster is the highest-quality entry. Yahoo Finance· live

Risk Analysis

4/10
Risk

Risk Profile: Moderate

A high-quality, net-cash compounder with elite margins and a clean cap table. The main risks are macro/cyclical (discretionary demand) and brand concentration rather than balance-sheet or dilution risk.

Consumer cycle Brand concentration Net cash No dilution

Discretionary Demand Cycle

Medium
  • Premium footwear is sensitive to consumer spending
  • A recession would slow DTC and wholesale reorders
Probability
Impact
Brand heat + net cash cushion the franchise through soft patches

HOKA Deceleration

Medium
  • HOKA shifting from hyper-growth to low-double-digits
  • Performance-running is competitive (Nike, On, Adidas)
Probability
Impact
Guidance already bakes in slower HOKA; the multiple does too

Brand Concentration

Medium
  • ~98% of revenue from HOKA + UGG
  • A misstep at either brand hits the whole P&L
Probability
Impact
Both brands are independently scaled, diversified by category

Tariffs & Sourcing

Low
  • Asian-sourced footwear exposed to tariff policy
  • Could compress the 57.7% gross margin
Probability
Impact
Premium pricing power lets Deckers pass through cost inflation

Why Risk Is Moderate, Not Low

The balance sheet (net cash, $1.1B FCF) and clean cap table take financing and dilution risk off the table entirely. What keeps this a 4/10 rather than a 2/10 is the cyclical nature of premium discretionary spending and the fact that two brands carry essentially the entire P&L. Neither is acute today — both brands are growing, guidance is conservative, and the 15x multiple already discounts a normalization in HOKA's growth rate. StockAnalysis· juin 2026

Trade Idea

Entry Zone
$112.50
Limit, just below EMA20
Stop Loss
$105.00
-6.7% (below EMA50)
Target 1
$124.00
+10.2% (52W high test)
Target 2
$132.00
+17.3% (breakout extension)
Risk/Reward
1:1.53
1:2.60 to TP2 · swing

Thesis

Deckers offers the rare combination of growth, quality and value: a record $5.47B year, 40.9% ROE and a net-cash balance sheet, all available at 15.3x forward earnings with a fresh $5B buyback underneath the stock. The entry is a $112.50 limit just below the EMA20, which lets you buy into the rising-MA cluster rather than chasing the post-print spike. R/R of 1:1.53 to TP1 and 1:2.60 to TP2 clears the 1.5 hurdle, with the buyback authorization providing a structural bid that improves the asymmetry. GuruFocus· mai 2026

Catalysts

  • Five consecutive earnings beats: Q4'25 $1.00 vs $0.57, Q1'26 $0.93 vs $0.68, Q2'26 $1.82 vs $1.58, Q3'26 $3.33 vs $2.77, Q4'26 $0.96 vs $0.81 AlphaQuery· 2026
  • Record FY26: revenue $5.47B (+10%), EPS $7.02 (+11%), operating margin >23%
  • $5B buyback (raised $3.5B) funded entirely by free cash flow
  • Raised FY27 guide ($5.86–$5.91B revenue) + new 2030 low-double-digit EPS framework

Invalidation

  • Daily close below the $105.00 stop (loss of the EMA50)
  • HOKA growth guidance cut below mid-single-digits on a future print
  • Gross margin compression from tariffs without offsetting price increases
  • Broad risk-off in discretionary consumer names (XLY breakdown)

Disclaimer

This analysis is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or solicitation to buy or sell any security.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Always conduct your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Data sourced from Yahoo Finance, StockAnalysis.com, SEC EDGAR, and Deckers Brands investor relations. Accuracy is not guaranteed.

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