DailyTickers

DINO — HF Sinclair Corporation

NYSE · Energy · August 28, 2026
$98.25 +0.00% Wait for a new pivot Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing Score 59 C+
$17.47B
Market Cap
1.8M
Volume
N/A
Fwd P/E
0.685
Beta
N/A
52W Range
5.3%
Short Interest
$90.80
Analyst Target
5.7x
EV/EBITDA
DINO Chart
Click to enlarge

Verdict Express

C+ Neutral Moderate confidence

HF Sinclair Corporation operates as an independent energy company in the United States. It operates through five segments: Refining, Renewables, Marketing, Lubricants & Specialties, and Midstream. Wait for a new pivot. Wait state: Break above $98.44.

Why Buy

  • Revenue growth: 53.2%; earnings growth: 350.2%
  • Cash $2.26B versus debt $3.34B
  • Defined confirmation: Break above $98.44

Why Avoid

  • Wait state: Break above $98.44.
  • First-target reward/risk at confirmation: 1.14R
  • Profit growth was flattered by a $642M lower-of-cost-or-market reserve release and $239M of RIN sales.

Business Overview

HF Sinclair Corporation operates as an independent energy company in the United States. It operates through five segments: Refining, Renewables, Marketing, Lubricants & Specialties, and Midstream. The company produces and markets gasoline, diesel fuel, jet fuel, renewable diesel, specialty lubricant products, specialty chemicals, commodity and modified asphalt products, and others. It also owns and operates refineries located in Kansas, Oklahoma, New Mexico, Wyoming, Washington, and Utah, as well as markets its refined products principally in the Southwest United States and Rocky Mountains, Pacific Northwest, and in other neighboring Plains states. In addition, the company supplies fuels to 1,700 branded stations and licenses the use of the Sinclair brand at approximately 350 additional locations, as well as provision of other marketing activities. Further, the company produces base oils and other specialized lubricants; and provides petroleum product and crude oil transportation, terminalling, storage, and throughput services to the petroleum sector. Additionally, it offers hydrocarbon chemicals, including white oils, petrolatums, and waxes. The company also exports its products. HF Sinclair Corporation was incorporated in 1947 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.

Recent News

2026-08-27
Why Is HF Sinclair (DINO) Up 7.2% Since Last Earnings Report? neutral
Context only; no trade conclusion is drawn from this headline.
Zacks

Fundamentals

MetricValueSignal
Revenue (TTM)$31.23B53.2% YoY
EBITDA$3.21B5.7x EV/EBITDA
Gross Margin12.9%Reported
Operating Margin11.7%Profitable
Net Margin6.1%Positive
ROE19.5%Capital efficiency
Cash$2.26BLiquidity
Debt$3.34BBalance-sheet claim
Forward P/EN/ANo estimate substituted
Intrinsic-value modelN/AFail-closed: insufficient inputs
Value / quality panel2 positive / 0 negative / 3 neutralbullish / confidence 75
Analyst Mean Target$90.80Consensus, not a guarantee

Earnings History

QuarterEPS ActualEPS Est.SurpriseRevenue
3Q2025$2.44$1.8630.9%-
4Q2025$1.20$0.45165.2%-
1Q2026$0.69$-0.051411.0%-
2Q2026$5.31$4.4918.3%-

4/4 captured quarters beat estimates — Next: 2026-10-29T12:30:00Z

Insiders & Institutions

5.5%
Insider Own.
89.6%
Institution Own.

Recent Transactions

DateInsiderTypeSharesValue
2026-08-05Kunneman Dalesell8,936$755,807
2026-08-02REH Advisors Inc.sell2.4M$212.3M
2026-06-16Hardy Rhoman Jbuy1,508$100,011
2026-06-02Fernandez Manuel Jsell635$46,412
2026-05-26Joyce Matthewsell2,384$166,236
2026-05-19Garg Viveksell717$51,545
2026-05-18REH Advisors Inc.sell1.5M$100.0M
2026-05-15Pompa Valeriesell10,000$690,500

bearish aggregate feed — 2 buys and 8 sales

Capital Structure & Dilution

177.8M
Shares Out.
See filing review
Authorized
low
Dilution Risk

Capital returns are strongly anti-dilutive: 4.02M shares were repurchased in the first half, another 2.375M in August, and a new $1.5B authorization was approved.

SEC Filings Review

Official filings were reviewed through 2026-08-28; the table lists the decision-relevant documents rather than every routine filing. The C+ grade describes the full dossier; the trade state (wait) is a separate timing decision.

DateFormAccessionWhat the filing changes
2026-07-3010-Q0001915657-26-000057Separates recurring operations from reserve releases, RIN sales and renewables impairment.
2026-08-268-K0001628280-26-059117Documents the latest capital-allocation and operating update.

Contrarian checks

Short Interest

5.3%
SI % Float
3.31
Days to Cover
N/A
CTB

Current snapshot only; no acceleration claim without a comparable historical series.

Options / Derivatives

42,215
Call OI
17,771
Put OI
2.38
C/P Ratio
$87.50
Max Pain
N/A
IV Mean

Unusual Activity: No unusual activity confirmed

Technical Analysis

RSI (14)63.3
EMA 20$91.90
EMA 50$85.38
EMA 200$68.18
MACD3.346
Signal3.200
ATR (14)$3.75
WyckoffTransitional
RSI 63.3 WAIT Wait for a new pivot
Supports: $50.30 / $42.67 / $47.71
Resistances:

Technical Setup

Wait for a new pivot. Required confirmation: Break above $98.44. Available moving averages are shown with their provider type.

Performance & Benchmarks

110.5%
YTD
93.4%
1Y
N/A — insufficient point-in-time history
3Y
Not calculated without aligned benchmark bars.
Alpha

Macro Context

IndicatorValueSignal
Market regimeRisk-on 0.79Trend support, not a timing trigger
VIX14.51Low current protection price

Regime: risk-on

The broad regime supports long setups, but rates and ticker-specific confirmation override the label.

Risk Analysis

Risk Profile: High

Dilution: low; beta: 0.69; insider signal: bearish.

Trade Structure

High
  • First-target reward/risk at confirmation: 1.14R
  • Wait state: Break above $98.44.
Probability
Impact
Break above $98.44

Capital and Dilution

Low
  • Capital returns are strongly anti-dilutive: 4.02M shares were repurchased in the first half, another 2.375M in August, and a new $1.5B authorization was approved.
  • Profit growth was flattered by a $642M lower-of-cost-or-market reserve release and $239M of RIN sales.
  • Refining remains cyclical; renewables impairment, Mississauga closure and a possible Lubricants separation add execution risk.
Probability
Impact
SEC review: low dilution risk. Filings and accessions are listed below.

Positioning

Medium
  • 2 insider buys vs 8 sells
  • Short interest: 5.3%
Probability
Impact
Positioning is context, not a standalone trigger.

Risk Synthesis

A precise stop does not make a setup valid. Entry location, normal volatility, event risk and reachable resistance decide whether the risk is paid.

Social Radar

Stocktwits
30
neutral
795 watchers; not used as a trigger.
Aggregate sentiment
2
positive
Confidence 8.7%.

Pump & Dump Score: 0/6

Clean
No recent halt flag
Short interest below 20%
SEC-reviewed dilution risk is low

Capital Flow

N/A
Net Flow
N/A
Institutional
N/A
Retail
N/A
Dark Pool %

No directional flow claim is made when detailed, aligned flow data is unavailable.

Trade Idea

WAIT — Wait state: Break above $98.44.
Entry Zone
$97.44
Original zone $97.10-$97.78. Break above $98.44. At the conservative $98.44 confirmation price, TP1 pays 1.14R.
Stop Loss
$93.92
-3.95% risk
Target 1
$103.58
5.93% upside
Target 2
$106.20
Stretch target; use the stated TP2 reward/risk below.
Risk/Reward
Confirmation TP1 1:1.14; original plan 1:1.50 / TP2 1:2.18
10 trading sessions

Thesis

Wait for a new pivot. Monitor break above $98.44; no market order and no chase outside the zone.

Catalysts

  • Insider activity bearish (2 buys / 8 sells, 90d)
  • MT Newswires — HF Sinclair's (DINO) new $1.5 billion stock repurchase program signals that management is committing to a more shareholder-driven capital allocation strategy rather than treating current refining prof...
  • Zacks — A month has gone by since the last earnings report for HF Sinclair (DINO). Shares have added about 7.2% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Invalidation

  • Below $93.92
  • Wait state: Break above $98.44.
  • Any earnings, clinical, regulatory or financing event before entry requires a fresh review.

Global Score

C+ Energy Neutral

Key Takeaways — Positive

  • Defined trigger: Break above $98.44
  • Dilution assessment after filing review: low
  • Revenue growth: 53.2%

Key Takeaways — Risks

  • Wait state: Break above $98.44.
  • First-target R/R at confirmation: 1.14R
  • Profit growth was flattered by a $642M lower-of-cost-or-market reserve release and $239M of RIN sales.
  • Refining remains cyclical; renewables impairment, Mississauga closure and a possible Lubricants separation add execution risk.

Mindset Tip

Wait for confirmation and preserve the invalidation.

Disclaimer

This analysis is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or solicitation to buy or sell any security.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Always conduct your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Data comes from point-in-time market snapshots, company filings, Yahoo Finance, SEC EDGAR, and public market data. Accuracy is not guaranteed.

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