EVR — Evercore Inc

NYSE · Capital Markets — Advisory IB · 14 juin 2026
$357.38 +3.7% vs EMA20 Momentum Conviction 92 A+
$14.8B
Market Cap
248.1K
Volume
19.8x
Fwd P/E
1.49
Beta
$243 – $389
52W Range
41.4M
Shares Out
1.00%
Div Yield
EVR Chart
Click to enlarge

Verdict Express

A+ Bullish High confidence

Evercore is the cleanest pure-play on the reawakening M&A and advisory cycle. The franchise has now posted four consecutive, escalating earnings beats — culminating in a record Q1'26 adjusted EPS of $7.53 (vs $5.43 consensus) as adjusted advisory fees jumped 123% year over year Investing.com· Q1'26. At ~20x earnings on inflecting numbers, with a balance sheet that returns capital rather than dilutes it, this is a high-quality cyclical breakout setup — not a value trap.

Why Buy

  • 4/4 escalating beats — momentum accelerating into the M&A upcycle
  • Record advisory fees, +123% YoY; comp ratio improving to 64%
  • #3 global independent advisory franchise with elite dealmaker bench
  • Clean cap table: $623.8M returned YTD via buyback + dividend
  • Perfect EMA stack (20>50>200), RSI 58 — room to run

Why Avoid

  • Highest-beta name in the cohort (1.49) — advisory revenue is cyclical
  • A stalled deal cycle or risk-off tape hits IB fees fastest
  • Up ~47% off the 52-week low — late-cycle entries carry timing risk

Business Overview

Evercore is the largest independent investment-banking advisory firm in the world by revenue and consistently ranks as the #3 global advisory franchise behind only Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley. Unlike the bulge brackets, Evercore takes no balance-sheet risk and runs no large trading book — it sells advice: M&A, restructuring, capital advisory, and shareholder engagement, plus a smaller Investment Management arm.

Two segments drive the model. Investment Banking & Equities — the engine — is where advisory fees, underwriting, and the Evercore ISI equities platform live. Investment Management contributes wealth and institutional asset management. Crucially, roughly 45% of net revenue is now non-M&A (restructuring, capital advisory, equities, underwriting), which diversifies the franchise across the cycle. Evercore reported a record $3.88B in FY25 net revenue, and the TTM figure has already climbed to ~$4.55B as the deal cycle reaccelerates StockAnalysis· TTM. A record class of newly hired Senior Managing Directors (SMDs) is the firm's forward pipeline: rainmakers take 12–24 months to ramp, so 2026 hiring seeds 2027 fees.

Fundamentals

Evercore is an advisory investment bank, so the right lens is net revenue, the compensation ratio, advisory fees, operating margin and capital return — not gross margin or EBITDA. The key tell here is operating leverage: revenue is growing faster than comp, so margins are expanding.

MetricValueSignal
Net Revenue (TTM)$4.55BRecord · +18% vs FY25
Net Revenue (FY25)$3.88BRecord year
Adj. Advisory Fees (Q1'26)~$1.2B+123% YoY
Adj. Compensation Ratio64%-170 bps YoY
Adj. Operating Margin (Q1'26)25.3%+870 bps YoY
Net Income (TTM)$809.6MInflecting
Adj. EPS Diluted (TTM)$17.75vs $14.56 FY25 (adj.)
P/E (TTM)20.1xReasonable on growth
Fwd P/E19.8xCycle-justified
Capital Returned (9M'25)$623.8MNet buyback
Analyst Target (mean)$374.60Buy consensus

The valuation deserves a clear-eyed look. P/E ~20 is above Evercore's mid-cycle average for a reason — earnings are inflecting hard off a deal-cycle trough. On forward numbers the multiple is ~19.8x, and if the advisory upcycle persists, FY26 consensus EPS leaves the stock in the mid-teens forward. This is not a nosebleed multiple (no MPWR-style ~60x here); it is a quality cyclical paying ~20x at the start of an upswing, which keeps the valuation axis intact for an A+ grade.

Technical Analysis

Last Price$357.38
RSI (14)58.4
EMA 20$344.49
EMA 50$337.08
EMA 200$321.33
ATR (14)$12.78
Extension vs EMA20+3.7%
Above EMA200 Above EMA50 Stack 20>50>200 RSI Healthy

Technical Setup

Textbook bullish structure. The EMA stack is perfectly ordered — EMA20 ($344.49) > EMA50 ($337.08) > EMA200 ($321.33) — with price riding above all three. RSI at 58.4 sits in the healthy momentum band, well short of overbought, leaving room before any mean-reversion. Price is only ~3.7% extended above the EMA20, so this is not a chase. ATR of $12.78 (~3.6%) frames clean risk: a pullback into the $344–$350 EMA20 zone is the high-probability entry, with the EMA50 around $337 acting as the trend floor. The stock sits ~8% below its 52-week high of $388.71 — enough headroom for a measured-move push toward prior highs Yahoo Finance· live.

Capital Structure & Dilution

For a recommendation to clear our bar, the cap table has to be clean — no active ATM, no toxic financing, no recent equity raise, no reverse split. Evercore passes decisively. A pull of the SEC EDGAR filing history (CIK 1360901) shows only routine forms — 8-K earnings releases, 10-Q/10-K, proxy DEF 14A, and insider Form 4s. There is a standing automatic shelf (S-3ASR, last refiled Nov 2023) — boilerplate for any WKSI of this size — but no 424B equity offering has been drawn since 2015, there is no at-the-market program, no PIPE, no convertibles and no warrants. The only equity-plan filing is a routine S-8 (employee comp). The shelf is dormant; the firm is a net repurchaser, not an issuer.

Net Buyback, Not Dilution

Low
  • $623.8M returned to shareholders in 9M'25 via dividend + repurchase
  • 1.9M shares bought back at an average of $264.72
  • $1.6B repurchase authorization in place (Apr 2025)
  • Diluted share count flat in the 41–43M range
Capital return offsets normal SBC — net shrinking share count

No Toxic Financing

Low
  • Dormant WKSI shelf only — no 424B equity offering drawn since 2015
  • No ATM program, no PIPE, no convertibles, no warrants
  • Long dividend-growth streak; raised to $0.89/qtr in Q1'26 (+6%)
  • SBC is normal for an advisory IB partnership model — and net of buyback
No aggressive bankers, no dilution catalyst on the horizon

Risk Analysis

5/10
Risk

Risk Profile: Moderate

A high-quality franchise with a pristine balance sheet — but the highest-beta name in this cohort (1.49). The dominant risk is not company-specific; it is the cyclicality of the deal market itself. Advisory fees are the first line item to retreat if the M&A cycle stalls or the tape turns risk-off.

Deal-Cycle Cyclicality

High
  • Advisory fees are tied directly to closed M&A volume
  • A macro shock or financing freeze can stall the pipeline fast
  • Beta 1.49 — EVR amplifies index moves in both directions
Probability
Impact
The cycle is the trade — size accordingly and respect the stop

Late-Cycle Entry & Extension

Medium
  • Stock is up ~47% off its 52-week low
  • P/E ~20 is above mid-cycle average (justified by inflection, but no margin of safety)
  • A consensus miss after 4 beats would compress the multiple
Probability
Impact
Use a limit entry on a pullback — do not chase strength

Talent & Comp Leverage

Low
  • People are the product — SMD departures hurt the franchise
  • Comp ratio 64% must stay disciplined to protect margin
  • Record SMD hiring class is a forward asset, not a current cost drag
Probability
Impact
Comp ratio is trending the right way (-170 bps YoY)

Balance Sheet & Dilution

Low
  • No equity shelf, no ATM, no convertibles, no warrants
  • Net buyback shrinks the share count
  • Long dividend-growth track record; raised +6% in Q1'26
Probability
Impact
Cleanest cap-table risk in the cohort

Why the Risk Score is 5/10

The company-specific risks here are genuinely low — no dilution, no leverage stress, improving margins, a Buy consensus. What keeps the gauge at a moderate 5/10 is pure cyclicality: with a 1.49 beta, EVR is the cohort's highest-octane name, and its core revenue line is the most macro-sensitive. In a continuing risk-on, deal-friendly tape this is exactly the franchise you want; in a sharp risk-off, it draws down faster than its peers. Trade it as a high-conviction cyclical, not a defensive compounder.

Trade Idea

Entry Zone
$350.00
Limit, -2.1% vs spot (EMA20 pullback)
Stop Loss
$332.00
Below EMA50, -5.1% risk (~1.4 ATR)
Target 1
$380.00
+8.6% — retest of 52W high zone
Target 2
$405.00
+15.7% — measured-move breakout
Risk/Reward
1.67R / 3.06R
TP1 / TP2 · swing horizon

Thesis

Buy the highest-quality pure-play on the M&A reawakening into a controlled pullback. The math: from a $350.00 limit entry, the $332.00 stop risks $18.00 while TP1 at $380.00 offers $30.00 — a clean 1.67R to the first target, and 3.06R if the breakout extends to $405.00. The $350 entry sits right on the EMA20 pullback zone, so you are buying the trend at support rather than chasing it. The stop tucks just under the EMA50 ($337) — a daily close below it would mark a genuine break of the uptrend, not just noise.

Catalysts

  • Q2'25 adj EPS $2.42 vs $1.78 est (+36%) — beat #1, advisory reacceleration begins
  • Q3'25 adj EPS $3.48 vs $3.23 est — beat #2, net revenue crosses $1B
  • Q4'25 adj EPS $5.13 vs $3.83 est (+28%) — beat #3, record quarter
  • Q1'26 adj EPS $7.53 vs $5.43 est (+39%) — beat #4, advisory fees +123% YoY
  • Record SMD hiring class fuels the 2026–27 advisory pipeline; M&A volumes recovering

Invalidation

  • Daily close below the EMA50 / $332 stop — uptrend broken
  • A risk-off macro break (VIX spike, financing freeze) that stalls the deal cycle
  • First earnings miss after the 4-beat streak — re-rate risk on the multiple

Disclaimer

This analysis is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or solicitation to buy or sell any security.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Always conduct your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Data sourced from DailyTickers Gateway, Yahoo Finance, StockAnalysis, MarketBeat, and SEC EDGAR. Accuracy is not guaranteed.

Verdict Business Fundamentals Technical Capital Risks Trade Idea