GD — General Dynamics

NYSE · Aerospace & Defense · 14 juin 2026
$360.22 near 52W high Trend Continuation Score 88 A
$97.3B
Market Cap
777K
Volume
21.4x
Fwd P/E
0.34
Beta
$275 – $370
52W Range
270.0M
Shares Out
1.77%
Div Yield
GD Chart
Click to enlarge

Verdict Express

A Bullish High confidence

General Dynamics is a diversified defense and Gulfstream aerospace prime breaking to fresh all-time highs on a 48% year-over-year backlog surge to $131B Investing.com· apr 2026. Four straight EPS beats, a raised 2026 guide ($16.45–$16.55), an investment-grade balance sheet and a shrinking share count make this a clean quality-compounder setup — not a hype trade. The catch: it is ~4.4% extended above its 20-day EMA and a hair from its 52-week high, so we wait for a limit fill rather than chase. We grade this A, not A+ — the fundamentals and capital structure are pristine, but TP1 risk/reward sits right at the 1.5R floor and upside to the average analyst target (~$392) is a modest ~9%, so the trade math is good rather than exceptional.

Why Buy

  • Record $131B backlog (+48% YoY), 2:1 book-to-bill — multi-year revenue visibility
  • 4 consecutive EPS beats; 2026 guide raised to $16.45–$16.55
  • Perfect EMA stack (20>50>200) at fresh highs — clean trend
  • Investment-grade only: no ATM, no convertibles, no equity dilution
  • Share count falling (274M→270M) via buybacks + 1.77% dividend

Why Avoid

  • Extended ~4.4% above EMA20 and near the 52W high — chasing risk
  • Defense-budget headline risk (continuing resolutions, appropriations fights)
  • Aerospace margins sensitive to Gulfstream delivery cadence and supply chain

Business Overview

General Dynamics is one of the world's largest defense contractors, operating across four segments: Aerospace (Gulfstream business jets), Marine Systems (Columbia- and Virginia-class submarines, surface combatants), Combat Systems (Abrams tanks, Stryker and wheeled vehicles, munitions) and Technologies (GDIT IT services + Mission Systems). Roughly two-thirds of revenue is tied to long-cycle US and allied government programs, giving the business a backlog-driven, recurring-revenue character that smooths economic cycles.

The Q1 2026 print captured the franchise at full stride: revenue of $13.5B (+10.3% YoY) with Marine Systems up 21% on submarine production and Aerospace delivering a record 38 first-quarter Gulfstream jets at a 15% margin GD IR· apr 2026. The structural moat — decades-long platform programs, deep government relationships and a $188B total estimated contract value — is exactly what makes GD a compounder rather than a cyclical trade.

Fundamentals

MetricValueSignal
Revenue (TTM)$53.8B+10% YoY
EBITDA (TTM)$6.44BExpanding
Operating Margin10.2%Steady
Net Margin8.1%Healthy
Net Income (TTM)$4.34BGrowing
EPS (TTM)$15.894 beats
ROE16.8%Strong
Cash$3.65BSolid
Total Debt$8.01BD/E 0.31
Trailing P/E22.7xReasonable
Fwd P/E21.4xFair for compounder
Analyst Target$392 ($313–$444)+9% upside

Radar — Fundamental Profile

GD scores well on growth, cash generation and quality (16.8% ROE), with valuation that sits in the "fair" — not cheap, not stretched — zone. At 21.4x forward earnings against a backlog up 48% and a raised guide, you are paying a market-style multiple for above-market visibility.

Technical Analysis

Price$360.22
RSI (14)63.2
EMA 20$345.08
EMA 50$343.58
EMA 200$337.39
ATR (14)$7.83
52W High$369.70
Above EMA200 Above EMA50 Perfect EMA stack RSI Bullish

Technical Setup

Textbook bullish structure at fresh highs. The EMA stack is perfectly aligned — EMA20 ($345.08) > EMA50 ($343.58) > EMA200 ($337.39) — confirming a healthy intermediate uptrend, while price at $360.22 sits cleanly above all three. RSI at 63.2 is firmly bullish without being overbought (<70), leaving room to run. The one caveat is extension: price is ~4.4% above EMA20 and within ~2.6% of the 52-week high of $369.70 Yahoo Finance· live. With ATR at $7.83 (~2.2%), the cleaner entry is a small pullback toward the prior consolidation, not a breakout chase.

Risk Analysis

4/10
Risk

Risk Profile: Moderate-Low

A diversified, investment-grade defense prime with a record backlog and no dilution overhang. The primary near-term risks are technical (extension/chasing) and policy (defense-budget headlines), not balance-sheet or franchise risk.

Extended price Budget headlines No dilution Low beta 0.34

Extension / Chasing Risk

Medium
  • Price ~4.4% above EMA20, ~2.6% below the 52W high
  • Breakout buyers risk a mean-reversion pullback to $345–$350
Probability
Impact
Managed by the sub-spot limit entry at $358.40 rather than a market chase

Defense Budget & Policy

Medium
  • Continuing resolutions or appropriations fights can delay orders
  • Headline volatility around budget cycles affects the whole group
Probability
Impact
$131B backlog + 2:1 book-to-bill buffers near-term funding noise

Dilution & Toxic Financing

Low
  • No ATM, no S-3 equity shelf, no convertibles, no stock-deal M&A in recent filings
  • Last capital-markets filing was Apr 2025 — 4.95% senior notes due 2035 (debt, not equity)
  • Share count declining 274M → 270M via buybacks
Probability
Impact
CLEAN — investment-grade only, no equity overhang detected on EDGAR

Aerospace Execution

Low
  • Gulfstream margins depend on delivery cadence and supply chain
  • A soft quarter for jet deliveries can dent the Aerospace mix
Probability
Impact
Record 38 Q1 deliveries at 15% margin shows execution is on track

Why the Risk Score is 4/10

GD's downside is dominated by trade-timing (extension) and macro/policy headlines rather than anything structural. The balance sheet is investment-grade (D/E 0.31), there is no dilution machinery on EDGAR, beta is a defensive 0.34, and the $131B backlog hard-anchors forward revenue. That combination keeps the overall risk firmly in the moderate-low band SEC EDGAR· jun 2026.

Trade Idea

Entry Zone
$358.40
Limit, ~0.5% below spot
Stop Loss
$340.00
-5.1% · below EMA50, ~2.4× ATR
Target 1
$386.00
+7.7% · breakout extension
Target 2
$412.50
+15.1% · toward Street high
Risk/Reward
1.5 / 2.9
TP1 / TP2 · swing horizon

Thesis

This is a quality-compounder continuation trade, not a chase. GD is trending at fresh highs with a perfect EMA stack, four consecutive EPS beats, and a 2026 guide that management raised after Q1 to $16.45–$16.55 Seeking Alpha· apr 2026. The $131B backlog (+48% YoY) and 2:1 book-to-bill underwrite the forward earnings power that justifies the 21.4x multiple. We enter on a small limit pullback to $358.40 to avoid buying the extension, risking to $340.00 (below the EMA50 swing) for a clean 1.5R to $386.00 and a near-3R stretch toward the analyst-target zone at $412.50.

Catalysts

  • Q1 2026: EPS $4.10 vs $3.69 est (+11.3%), revenue $13.5B (+10.3%), backlog $131B (+48%) GD IR
  • Q4 2025: EPS $4.17 vs $4.11 est (beat); Q3 2025: $3.88 vs $3.73 (+4.0%); Q2 2025: $3.74 vs $3.55 (+4.2%) — 4 straight beats TipRanks
  • 2026 EPS guidance raised to $16.45–$16.55 (from $16.10–$16.20); $188B total estimated contract value (+33%)
  • Marine Systems +21% on Columbia/Virginia submarine ramp; record 38 Q1 Gulfstream deliveries at 15% margin

Invalidation

  • Daily close below $340.00 (loses the EMA50 swing structure) → thesis broken
  • Adverse defense-budget action (CR extension, program cut) that pressures orders
  • Loss of the EMA20/50 cluster on rising volume → de-risk and reassess

Disclaimer

This analysis is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or solicitation to buy or sell any security.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Always conduct your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Data sourced from Yahoo Finance, StockAnalysis.com, SEC EDGAR, company investor relations, and public market data as of 14 June 2026. Accuracy is not guaranteed.

Verdict Business Fundamentals Technical Risks Trade Idea