DailyTickers

GS — Goldman Sachs

NYSE · Financials · 30 juin 2026
$1011.37 -0.87% Financials Score 82 A- Score 82 A-
$298.4B
Market Cap
15.24x
Fwd P/E
1.291
Beta
$691.30 — $1,125.00
52W Range
2.33%
Short Interest
1.76%
Div Yield
1.58
PEG
GS Chart
Click to enlarge

Verdict Express

A- Bullish Medium confidence

Goldman Sachs is a Tier-1 global investment bank trading at 15.2x forward earnings — cheap relative to its historical 18-20x average — after delivering four consecutive EPS beats with an accelerating trajectory ($10.91 to $17.55 over four quarters). The stock has pulled back to its EMA50 (~$1003) from a 52-week high of $1,125, offering a clean entry in a structural uptrend (+46% YoY). ROTCE above 12% justifies the 2.84x P/B premium. The primary risk is cyclicality (M&A/IPO pipeline, FICC trading) and fresh sell-side downgrades from Oppenheimer and Barrons on valuation grounds.

Why Buy

  • Four consecutive EPS beats with accelerating trajectory: $10.91 → $12.25 → $14.01 → $17.55
  • Forward PE 15.2x is cheap vs historical 18-20x average for a Tier-1 investment bank
  • ROTCE >12% above cost of equity, justifying premium to book value
  • Record AUM >$3T driving stable, growing fee-based revenue
  • EMA50 pullback in a structural uptrend (+46% YoY) — actionable entry, not a chase

Why Avoid

  • Oppenheimer and Barrons issue sell calls at current valuation levels
  • M&A/IPO pipeline can dry up in risk-off environments, compressing revenue
  • Beta 1.29 means amplified moves with broad market sentiment

Business Overview

Goldman Sachs is a leading global investment bank operating across four segments: Global Banking & Markets (FICC, equities, advisory), Asset & Wealth Management, Platform Solutions, and Consumer Banking. The firm has pivoted decisively from its consumer experiment back to institutional strengths, with AUM exceeding $3 trillion.

The core franchise — investment banking, trading, and wealth management — benefits from structural tailwinds in M&A advisory, equity underwriting, and alternatives. Management's strategic refocus on institutional clients has improved capital efficiency and margin profile, with ROTCE above 12% and a well-capitalized balance sheet (CET1 ~14.5%). Goldman's competitive moat rests on its unmatched deal-flow network, risk management expertise, and a brand synonymous with Tier-1 financial advisory.

Fundamentals

MetricValueSignal
Revenue (TTM)$60.8B+20.6% YoY
EPS (TTM)$54.72+49.1% YoY
Forward PE15.2xBelow historical avg 18-20x
PEG1.58Fairly valued
Price / Book2.84xPremium to book (RoE justifies)
Dividend Yield1.76%Steady grower, 20% payout ratio
Net Interest IncomeGrowingRate-sensitive, benefits from curve steepening
ROTCE>12%Above cost of equity
AUM>$3TRecord high, fee-based revenue growing
CET1 Ratio~14.5%Well above 13.5% minimum
EPS Beats4 consecutive+7.1% latest surprise

Capital Structure & Dilution

N/A
Shares Out.
N/A
Authorized
low
Dilution Risk

Technical Analysis

RSI (14)45.0
EMA 20$1045.34
EMA 50$1003.20
EMA 200$878.84
MACD13.210
Signal24.840
ATR (14)$32.14
Above EMA50 Above EMA200 Below EMA20
Supports: $1003.20 / $970.00
Resistances: $1045.34 / $1125.00

Risk Analysis

Risk Profile: Moderate

GS is well-capitalized with clean operations and strong earnings momentum. Primary risks are cyclical (M&A pipeline, rate sensitivity) rather than structural.

Market Cyclicality

Medium
  • M&A and IPO pipeline can dry up in risk-off
  • FICC trading revenue volatile quarter-to-quarter
  • Equity underwriting tied to market sentiment
Probability
Impact
GS has diversified into more stable AUM fees, reducing but not eliminating cyclical exposure

Regulatory & Capital

Low
  • Basel III endgame may increase capital requirements
  • CET1 at ~14.5% provides comfortable buffer
  • Stress test results historically strong
Probability
Impact
Well-prepared for regulatory evolution with excess capital

Valuation Compression

Medium
  • Oppenheimer and Barrons issue sell calls at current valuation
  • Trailing PE 18.5x above some peers
  • Multiple expansion may have run its course after +46% YoY
Probability
Impact
Fair concern but fwd PE 15.2x still below historical average

Risk Synthesis

Goldman Sachs trades at 15.2x forward earnings after delivering four consecutive EPS beats with an accelerating trajectory ($10.91 to $17.55). The stock has pulled back ~10% from its 52-week high of $1,125, landing near the EMA50 support at ~$1,003. The sell-side downgrades from Oppenheimer and Barrons reflect trailing PE expansion concerns, but the forward multiple at 15.2x is actually below the historical 18-20x average for Tier-1 investment banks. The trade monetizes the gap between the market pricing in cyclical risk and the reality of a structurally improved earnings base.

Trade Idea

Entry Zone
$1010.00
Stop Loss
$970.00
-4.0% risk
Target 1
$1080.00
+6.9% upside
Target 2
$1125.00
+11.3% upside
Risk/Reward
1:1.75

Thesis

GS pulling back to EMA50 after Q1 EPS blowout (+7.1% beat). 4 consecutive beats with accelerating earnings trajectory ($10.91→$12.25→$14.01→$17.55). Fwd PE 15.2x is cheap for a Tier-1 investment bank with RoE > 12%. Entry at EMA50 support with stop below prior consolidation.

Catalysts

  • 4 consecutive EPS beats with accelerating trajectory (Q1'26: $17.55 vs $16.39 est)
  • Fwd PE 15.2x cheap vs historical 18-20x average
  • Record M&A and IPO pipeline supporting FICC + equity underwriting revenue
  • EMA50 pullback in a structural uptrend (price +46% YoY)

Invalidation

  • Daily close below $970 (below EMA50 and prior consolidation support)
  • Fed rate-cut delay pushing 10Y above 5% compressing NII expectations
  • Sharp deterioration in M&A/IPO pipeline metrics

Disclaimer

This analysis is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or solicitation to buy or sell any security.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Always conduct your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Data sourced from DailyTickers Gateway, Yahoo Finance, SEC EDGAR, and public market data. Accuracy is not guaranteed.

Verdict Business Fundamentals Capital Technical Risks Trade