Hut 8 has assembled one of the sector's largest contracted power backlogs, but the equity is a long-duration construction and financing vehicle wrapped around volatile bitcoin accounting. Q2 2026 revenue rose 81% to $74.9 million, non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA was $10.4 million, and the company reported 949 MW of contracted IT capacity with $26.6 billion of base contract value and more than $1.75 billion of expected annual NOI. The $7.5 billion River Bend and Beacon Point financing is nonrecourse project debt, not parent equity. However, GAAP net loss was $177.1 million, including $138.6 million of unrealized digital-asset losses, and 1,330 MW under construction does not begin initial delivery until 2027. Reported $8.1 billion liquidity includes project and ABTC resources, so it is not freely deployable parent cash. The February ATM had $284.2 million sold and $715.8 million remaining. The D+ grade reflects contract strength but weak current earnings quality. The unchanged $86 plan is rejected at only 0.82R and 1.08R.
Hut 8 develops power assets and datacenters while retaining compute and bitcoin-linked operations. Near-term revenue comes primarily from compute, with future economics expected to shift toward contracted AI infrastructure NOI as River Bend and Beacon Point are delivered.
The AI channel is physical and financed: customers sign long-term capacity contracts, nonrecourse project debt funds construction, and Hut 8 earns rent or NOI as IT load becomes operational. Contracted capacity of 949 MW is the monetizable subset of a much larger development pipeline.
The model breaks if 2027 delivery slips, project costs exceed financing, tenant obligations change, or the bitcoin-linked businesses weaken before contracted NOI arrives. Parent liquidity, project liquidity and ABTC liquidity must remain separate; combining them can materially overstate corporate flexibility. The practical scorecard is contracted and financed megawatts delivered on schedule, with parent-level liquidity kept separate from project and affiliate resources throughout the build.
| Segment | Revenue | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Compute | Digital-asset mining and compute operations. | |
| Digital infrastructure | Datacenter development and contracted IT capacity. | |
| Power | Energy assets and power monetization. |
| Metric | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 revenue | $74.9M | +81% YoY |
| Q2 GAAP net loss | ($177.1M) | Digital-asset marks dominate |
| Q2 adjusted EBITDA | $10.4M | Non-GAAP |
| Contracted IT capacity | 949 MW | $26.6B base contract value |
| Expected annual project NOI | >$1.75B | Subject to delivery |
| EV/Revenue | ~56.4x trailing | August 28, 2026 basis: $10.50B market value plus $7.67B debt less $233.6M unrestricted cash gives approximately $17.94B EV, or 56.4x the displayed $318.0M trailing revenue |
| EV/expected project NOI scenario | <10.25x forward project NOI | August 28, 2026 scenario: approximately $17.94B cash-net EV divided by more than $1.75B expected annual project NOI, versus 56.4x trailing revenue; delivery begins in 2027 and capex remains at risk |
| Revenue (TTM) | $318.0M | 81.4% YoY |
| Gross Margin | 62.3% | Reported |
| Operating Margin | -275.4% | Loss-making |
| Net Margin | -188.6% | Negative |
| ROE | -43.4% | Capital efficiency |
| Cash | $233.6M | Liquidity; sector accounting may limit direct debt netting |
| Debt | $7.67B | Balance-sheet claim |
| Intrinsic-value model | N/A | Fail-closed: insufficient or non-economic output |
| Value / quality panel | 0 positive / 5 negative / 0 neutral | bearish / confidence 52 |
| Fundamental grade audit | 40/100 (D+) | base +55, growth +14, grossMargin +4, operatingMargin -6, earningsGrowth +0, roe +0, balanceSheet -4, qualityBoard -6, capitalStructure -9, controls -8; capped score 40/100 |
| Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Est. | Surprise | Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3Q2025 | $-0.05 | $-0.12 | 59.9% | - |
| 4Q2025 | $-2.12 | $-0.09 | -2172.0% | - |
| 1Q2026 | $0.10 | $-0.36 | 127.6% | - |
| 2Q2026 | $-0.39 | $-0.47 | 16.6% | - |
Q2 2026 revenue was $74.9M versus $41.3M, an 81% increase. Compute contributed $72.5M, while power and digital infrastructure contributed $1.2M and $1.3M. GAAP net loss was $177.1M versus $137.5M of income, largely because unrealized digital-asset marks swung to a $138.6M loss. Non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA was $10.4M versus $4.2M; including digital-asset mark-to-market it was negative $94.6M. Management reported more than $1.75B of expected annual NOI from contracted projects, but initial 1,330 MW deliveries are scheduled for Q2 and Q3 2027. Hut 8 provided project NOI and delivery milestones rather than formal consolidated revenue or EBITDA guidance. The caveat is the long construction bridge and mark-to-market earnings volatility. No confirmed Hut 8 next-earnings date was published in the issuer sources checked. — Next: Not confirmed
No structured transaction table was captured.
Hut 8's $7.5B River Bend and Beacon Point financing is nonrecourse project debt, not equity or general parent debt. The February ATM created $1B capacity; $284.2M was sold and $715.8M remained. The roughly 123.3M basic count includes the completed 9,715,476-share Coatue note conversion. The June filing separately reports about 3.28M unvested RSUs, 73,954 deferred units and roughly 4.84M performance units before payout multipliers, plus outstanding options. Remaining ATM dollars cannot be translated into a fixed share count; at $86 they represent an 8.3M-share sensitivity, not issued stock. Project and ABTC liquidity remains unavailable for parent uses.
5 decision-relevant primary filing(s) are displayed with accession-specific findings. Grade D+ measures fundamentals; trade state rejected measures timing and is evaluated separately.
| Date | Form | Accession | What the filing changes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | 10-Q | 0001104659-26-090025 | The June Form 10-Q reports Q2 revenue, digital-asset fair-value effects, liquidity classifications and project obligations, supporting the distinction between parent, project and ABTC resources. This classification controls the editorial conclusion. |
| 2026-02-25 | 10-K | 0001104659-26-019392 | The 2025 Form 10-K establishes Hut 8's annual segment, digital-asset, control and capital baseline; it predates the full River Bend and Beacon Point financing package. |
| 2026-08-04 | 8-K | 0001104659-26-090041 | The August earnings Form 8-K furnishes Q2 revenue of $74.9M, $10.4M non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA and 949 MW contracted capacity through its direct Exhibit 99.1. This classification controls the editorial conclusion. |
| 2026-02-25 | 424B5 | 0001104659-26-019441 | The February 424B5 establishes a $1B ATM program; reviewed later disclosure identifies $284.2M sold and $715.8M remaining, separating actual issuance from unused capacity. This classification controls the editorial conclusion. |
| 2026-06-10 | 8-K | 0001104659-26-071952 | The directly verified June 10 Form 8-K belongs to Hut 8 and reports $4.25B aggregate principal amount of 6.129% secured project notes due 2042 for the 352 MW River Bend build. It is project debt, not parent equity issuance; the accession also appears in the local dilution inventory. |
HUT point-in-time short-interest context only; no acceleration claim without a comparable dated series.
Unusual Activity: No unusual activity confirmed
| RSI (14) | 48.6 |
| EMA 20 | $88.81 |
| EMA 50 | $94.81 |
| EMA 200 | $77.37 |
| MACD | -4.709 |
| Signal | -5.199 |
| ATR (14) | $7.40 |
| Wyckoff | Transitional |
HUT is rejected at the unchanged $86.00 reference: the August 19 stop at $76.0299 reaches only 0.82R at the August 21 pivot of $94.22 and 1.08R at the August 12 pivot of $96.75. The quote was $85.18 at 2026-08-28T13:44:53Z and the structure ends August 27. No activation, order or sizing is permitted; any 2027 construction or financing event requires a fresh chart. Daily indicators and pivots run only through the 2026-08-27 close.
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Reference close | 2026-08-27 | Daily structure is point-in-time controlled |
| Quote snapshot | 2026-08-28T13:44:53Z | Exact timestamp; not represented as a publication-time live quote |
| Opening observation | 2026-08-28T13:30:00Z | Regular-session range used for the single activation level |
Regime: risk-on
Hut 8 links North American grid interconnections to both bitcoin economics and future AI rent. Credit spreads and construction inflation determine project residual value; bitcoin price and network difficulty fund the bridge; hyperscaler demand matters only for contracted, financeable sites.
Contracted value is large, but earnings remain bitcoin-sensitive and major rent begins in 2027. Mixing pipeline, project debt and consolidated liquidity can hide both delivery risk and the limited availability of cash.
Separate parent, project and affiliate balance sheets. Retail war-room: the $86/$76.0299 plan is rejected because both dated targets provide inadequate reward, so sizing is zero and no limit order may be staged. BTC gaps, liquidity, spread and slippage worsen the payoff; never chase an AI-contract headline. Project-financing or construction events require a new regular-session structure.
HUT: directional flow remains unscored because no dated, inspectable transaction-level source was captured.
Reject the unchanged $86.00 entry because the dated $76.0299 stop yields only 0.82R to $94.22 and 1.08R to $96.75. That payoff cannot compensate for 2027 construction, ATM capacity, bitcoin gaps and segregated project liquidity. No order or sizing is permitted until a fresh regular-session structure is established after material project or financing disclosures.
Separate parent, project and affiliate balance sheets. Current trade state: rejected.
This analysis is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or solicitation to buy or sell any security.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Always conduct your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Data comes from point-in-time market snapshots, company filings, Yahoo Finance, SEC EDGAR, and public market data. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
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Pump & Dump Score: 2/6
Suspect