DailyTickers

JNJ — Johnson & Johnson

NYSE · Healthcare · 23 juin 2026
$239.08 +3.37% Momentum Defensive Score 88 A ☪ Halal
$575.5B
Market Cap
7.59M
Volume
18.8x
Fwd P/E
0.256
Beta
$150.73 – $251.71
52W Range
1.08%
Short Interest
2.32%
Div Yield
JNJ Chart
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Verdict Express

A Bullish High% confidence

Johnson & Johnson is a defensive healthcare mega-cap delivering 4 consecutive earnings beats while trading at a reasonable 18.8x forward PE. Post-Kenvue spinoff, JNJ is a pure-play pharma/MedTech company with strong oncology growth (Darzalex, Erleada) and expanding MedTech margins. The stock is outperforming SPX (+3.4% vs -1.4%) with ultra-low beta (0.26), offering institutional-grade defensiveness with upside optionality.

Why Buy

  • 4 consecutive earnings beats — reliable execution across segments
  • Ultra-low beta (0.26) — top-tier defensive profile in volatile markets
  • Oncology franchise (Darzalex, Erleada, Tremfya) driving Innovative Medicine growth
  • 2.32% dividend yield with 60+ years of consecutive increases (Dividend King)
  • EMA stack fully aligned (EMA20 > EMA50 > EMA200) — strong uptrend

Why Avoid

  • Forward PE 18.8x is fair but not cheap for a large pharma company
  • Talc litigation overhang — potential for large settlement or judgment
  • Stelara biosimilar competition expected to pressure immunology revenue
  • PEG ratio of 3.01 suggests growth is already priced in

Business Overview

Johnson & Johnson is one of the world's largest healthcare companies, operating in two segments: Innovative Medicine (formerly Pharmaceuticals) and MedTech. After spinning off its consumer health business as Kenvue (KVUE) in 2023, JNJ is now a pure-play pharmaceutical and medical technology company.

Key growth drivers include Darzalex (multiple myeloma — blockbuster), Stelara (immunology), Tremfya (psoriasis/IBD — next-gen replacement for Stelara), and Erleada (prostate cancer). The MedTech segment covers orthopedics, surgery, interventional solutions, and vision care. JNJ is a Dividend King with 60+ consecutive years of dividend increases.

Segments

SegmentRevenue% TotalDescription
Innovative Medicine~55%55%Oncology (Darzalex, Erleada), Immunology (Stelara, Tremfya), Neuroscience, Cardiovascular
MedTech~45%45%Orthopedics, Surgery, Interventional Solutions, Vision Care

Fundamentals

MetricValueSignal
Market Cap$575.5BMega-Cap
Trailing P/E27.7xPremium
Forward P/E18.8xFair
PEG Ratio3.01xStretched
EV/EBITDA17.2xIn-line
EV/Revenue6.1xPharma norm
Book Value$33.74P/B 7.09x
Beta0.26Ultra-defensive
Dividend Yield2.32%Dividend King
Short Interest1.08%Minimal

Earnings History

QuarterEPS ActualEPS Est.SurpriseRevenue
Q1 2026$2.70$2.68+0.8%
Q4 2025$2.46$2.46+0%
Q3 2025$2.80$2.76+1.4%
Q2 2025$2.77$2.68+3.2%

4/4 consecutive beats — consistent execution with modest surprises typical of large pharma — Next: July 2026 (est.)

Technical Analysis

RSI (14)59.0
EMA 20$232.87
EMA 50$231.87
EMA 200$213.94
MACD1.480
Signal1.280
ATR (14)$5.02
Above EMA200 Above EMA50 MACD Bullish RSI Neutral EMA Stack Valid
Supports: $232.87 / $231.87 / $213.94
Resistances: $251.71 / $265.00 / $280.00

Technical Setup

Bullish structure with fully aligned EMA stack: EMA20 ($232.87) > EMA50 ($231.87) > EMA200 ($213.94). RSI 58.96 is in healthy neutral-bullish territory with room to run. MACD ($1.48) above signal ($1.28) confirms upward momentum. Extension from EMA20 is only 2.7% — not overstretched. ATR $5.02 (2.1%) provides manageable risk. 52-week high at $251.71 is the next major resistance, currently 5.3% away.

Risk Analysis

Risk Profile: Low-Moderate

Defensive mega-cap with ultra-low beta and Dividend King status. Primary risks are litigation-related and biosimilar competition, not operational.

Talc Litigation

Medium
  • Ongoing talcum powder lawsuits alleging cancer links
  • Potential multi-billion dollar settlement or judgment
  • Third bankruptcy-resolution attempt for liabilities
Probability
Impact
Material but manageable — JNJ has $20B+ cash and any settlement is likely structured over many years

Stelara Biosimilar Competition

Medium
  • Stelara patent cliff exposes ~$10B+ annual revenue to biosimilar erosion
  • Tremfya positioned as successor but ramp takes time
Probability
Impact
Expected and partially priced in — Tremfya and pipeline drugs offset the decline over 2-3 years

Pharma Pricing Pressure

Low
  • Medicare drug price negotiations under IRA could cap pricing power
  • Political pressure on pharma pricing intensifying globally
Probability
Impact
JNJ's diversified portfolio and MedTech segment reduce single-drug concentration risk

PEG Ratio Concern

Low
  • PEG ratio of 3.01 suggests valuation outpacing earnings growth rate
  • Large pharma typically grows mid-single digits — limited re-rating potential
Probability
Impact
Defensive premium is justified in volatile markets — dividend yield provides downside cushion

Trade Idea

Entry Zone
$238.00
Buy zone $237–$239, near current price
Stop Loss
$225.00
-5.5% risk
Target 1
$252.00
+5.9% upside (52w high)
Target 2
$265.00
+11.3% stretch
Risk/Reward
1:1.9
8-12 week horizon

Thesis

JNJ is a defensive mega-cap outperforming the S&P 500 with 4 consecutive earnings beats, ultra-low beta (0.26), and a fully aligned EMA stack. The post-Kenvue pure-play pharma/MedTech focus is driving oncology and rare disease growth. At 18.8x forward PE with a 2.3% dividend yield, the risk/reward favors longs with the 52-week high ($251.71) as the first target.

Catalysts

  • Q1 2026 EPS $2.70 vs $2.68 est (+0.8%) — 4th consecutive beat
  • Oncology growth: Darzalex and Erleada gaining market share globally
  • MedTech segment recovery with procedure volume normalization
  • Defensive rotation tailwind — outperforming SPX (+3.4% vs -1.4%)

Invalidation

  • Break below $225 (EMA200 area at $213.94) on elevated volume
  • Adverse talc litigation ruling exceeding $10B in liabilities
  • Stelara biosimilar erosion faster than Tremfya ramp-up
  • RSI divergence below 40 with MACD crossover to bearish

Disclaimer

This analysis is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or solicitation to buy or sell any security.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Always conduct your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Data sourced from DailyTickers Gateway, Yahoo Finance, SEC EDGAR, and public market data. Accuracy is not guaranteed.

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