KO — The Coca-Cola Company

NYSE · Consumer Staples — Beverages · 14 juin 2026
$79.39 below EMA20 Defensive Dividend Aristocrat B+ ☪ Halal-friendly*
$342B
Market Cap
18.2M
Avg Volume
22.8x
Fwd P/E
0.35
Beta
$65.35 – $84.04
52W Range
2.7%
Div Yield
Grade downgraded from A+ to B+ — 20 June 2026

Price at $79.39 has slipped below EMA20 ($80.38) and sits only $0.99 above the published stop of $78.40, meaning normal noise will likely trigger it. RSI at 49.2 confirms weakening momentum. The original entry thesis requires a setup rebuild with fresh levels.

KO Chart
Click to enlarge

Verdict Express

B+ Neutral Moderate confidence

Coca-Cola is a textbook defensive compounder with strong Q1 momentum, though the near-term setup has weakened (see downgrade notice above). Q1 2026 delivered organic revenue +10% and comparable EPS +18%, the fourth consecutive beat, and management raised the full-year EPS guideKO IR· avr 2026. A 0.35 beta, a 2.7% dividend with 60+ years of consecutive raises, and an investment-grade credit profile make this a rare combination of growth, defense, and income — at a fair, not stretched, valuation.

Why Buy

  • Four consecutive earnings beats — Q1'26 EPS $0.86 vs $0.81 est.
  • Organic revenue +10% in Q1'26; FY guide raised to +8-9% EPS
  • Wide-moat global beverage franchise with durable pricing power
  • 2.7% dividend, 60+ years of consecutive increases (aristocrat)
  • Low 0.35 beta + 27.8% net margin = quality defense in a wobble

Why Avoid

  • Pricing-led model: vulnerable if consumers trade down
  • Strong USD can erase reported gains (FX is a swing factor)
  • Volume growth is muted (+3% units) — not a torque story
  • Within 6% of 52W high; limited margin of safety on a re-rate stall

Business Overview

The Coca-Cola Company is the world's largest non-alcoholic beverage company, owning a portfolio of 200+ brands spanning sparkling soft drinks (Coca-Cola, Sprite, Fanta), hydration and sports (Dasani, smartwater, Powerade, BodyArmor), juices (Minute Maid, Simply), tea and coffee (Costa, fairlife dairy), and ready-to-drink categories. The company sells roughly 2.2 billion servings per day across more than 200 countries.

The economic engine is a capital-light concentrate model: Coca-Cola produces and sells syrups and concentrates to a global network of independent bottlers, who handle the capital-intensive manufacturing and distribution. That structure delivers the company's hallmark high margins — a 27.8% net margin and a 43%+ return on equityStockAnalysis· juin 2026 — while the bottlers carry the heavy assets. The brand equity, distribution scale, and shelf dominance form one of the widest moats in the consumer-staples universe.

The current growth algorithm is pricing and revenue-growth management plus modest unit-case volume, helped in 2026 by a favorable FX swing and a fresh strategic push under a renewed leadership cadence. It is a slow, dependable compounder — not a hyper-growth story — and that is precisely the point.

Fundamentals

MetricValueSignal
Revenue (TTM)$49.3B+ Organic
EBITDA (TTM)$16.7BStrong
Net Income (TTM)$13.7BRobust
Net Margin27.8%Elite
ROE43.4%Exceptional
EPS (TTM)$3.13Growing
Fwd P/E22.8xFair
Dividend Yield2.7%Aristocrat
Analyst Target$86.00+8% upside

What the numbers say

This is a balance-sheet of unusual quality: a 27.8% net margin and 43.4% ROE are extraordinary for a $49B-revenue business, and they reflect the concentrate model's capital efficiency. The forward P/E of ~23x sits within KO's historical band and is reasonable for a wide-moat aristocrat compounding comparable EPS at +8-9%CNBC· avr 2026 — this is not a nosebleed multiple like a 60x growth name. The consensus 12-month target of ~$86 implies ~8% upside from spot; the case here is the compounding plus dividend, not a deep re-rate.

Earnings Track Record

Coca-Cola has cleared analyst EPS estimates for four consecutive quarters — the dependable, low-variance beat pattern you want from a defensive core holding.

QuarterEPS ActualEPS Est.SurpriseResult
Q2 2025$0.87$0.84+3.9%Beat
Q3 2025$0.82$0.78+5.3%Beat
Q4 2025$0.58$0.56+2.7%Beat
Q1 2026$0.86$0.81+5.9%Beat

A consistent beat pattern

Across the last four consecutive quarters KO has beaten consensus EPS every time, by +2.7% to +5.9%. Q4'25's beat ($0.58 vs $0.56) came despite a 5-point currency drag, and Q1'26 then paired its beat with +10% organic revenue and a +18% jump in comparable EPSYahoo Finance· avr 2026. Management responded by lifting the FY comparable-EPS guide to +8-9%. For a megacap staple, that is a notably bullish revision.

Technical Analysis

Price$79.39
RSI (14)~49.2 (neutral)
EMA 20$80.38
EMA 50$79.09
EMA 200$75.13
ATR (14)$1.57 (~1.9%)
52W High$84.04
Above EMA200 Above EMA50 Below EMA20 RSI Neutral

Technical Setup

The bullish stack has broken: price $79.39 is now below EMA20 $80.38, though still above EMA50 $79.09 and EMA200 $75.13Yahoo Finance· live. RSI at 49.2 has slipped below 50, confirming weakening momentum. Price sits only $0.99 above the published stop of $78.40, meaning normal daily volatility (ATR ~$1.57) can easily trigger it. The trend-following anchor is lost and the setup needs fresh levels before re-entry.

Capital Structure & Clean-Flags

For a swing setup, the key question on the capital side is simple: is anything diluting holders? For KO the answer is a clear no — the opposite is true.

Share Count & Buybacks

Clean
  • Shares outstanding are flat-to-slightly-down year over year
  • KO is a net repurchaser of its own equity, not an issuer
  • No ATM equity program, no S-3 common-stock shelf in use
Buybacks add to EPS — the share count works for holders

SEC Shelf Filings

Clean
  • 424B5 / 424B2 filings are investment-grade DEBT notes
  • No equity offering, no toxic convertible, no mandatory-convert
  • No activist 13D, no death-spiral financier on the cap table
Debt shelves fund operations cheaply; equity holders are not diluted

Dilution Verdict: CLEAN

SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000021344) shows the recent 424B filings are standard investment-grade debt notes under a shelf, not stock issuance. Coca-Cola actively buys back equity and grows its dividend — there is no active equity ATM, no toxic financing, and no mandatory-convertible. This is the cleanest possible cap-table profile. Note that KO carries ~$45B in total debt (D/E ~1.2x), all investment-grade; this is standard for the concentrate model and does not affect equity dilution.SEC EDGAR· juin 2026

Risk Analysis

3/10
Risk

Risk Profile: Low

A wide-moat defensive megacap with elite margins, an investment-grade credit profile (D/E ~1.2x, all debt — no equity dilution), and a 60+ year dividend record. The principal risks are macro and FX, not company-specific solvency or dilution. Downside is shallow relative to most equities.

Clean cap table Low beta 0.35 FX-sensitive

Pricing-Led Model & Trade-Down

Medium
  • 2026 growth leans on price/mix; unit volume is only +3%
  • A consumer squeeze could push shoppers to private label
  • Reaching price ceilings would cap the EPS algorithm
Probability
Impact
Brand strength and affordability packs have historically absorbed trade-down cycles

Currency (FX) Exposure

Medium
  • ~60% of revenue is international — USD strength is a headwind
  • Q1'26 EPS was helped by a ~3% currency tailwind that can reverse
  • FX can swing reported results several points either way
Probability
Impact
Comparable currency-neutral EPS still guided +6-7% — the underlying business is intact

Valuation Near Highs

Low
  • Fwd P/E ~23x is within KO's historical band
  • Consensus target ~$86 implies moderate upside from spot
  • A multiple stall would cap returns to dividend + EPS growth
Probability
Impact
Even a flat multiple still compounds at EPS growth + 2.7% yield

Regulatory / Health Trends

Low
  • Sugar taxes and GLP-1 weight-loss drugs are a structural overhang
  • Secular shift toward low/no-sugar reformulation continues
  • Litigation and packaging/plastics regulation are ongoing
Probability
Impact
KO's pivot to Coke Zero, water, coffee and dairy diversifies the portfolio away from full-sugar soda

Why the risk score is low

KO scores a 3/10 because the dominant risks are macro and FX rather than existential. There is no dilution, no cash-burn, no solvency question, and no toxic financing — the balance sheet is investment-grade and the dividend is among the most secure in the marketSimply Wall St· juin 2026. The chief debate is valuation near highs, which caps upside but does not threaten capital. This is a buy-the-dip-and-hold quality name with a defined, modest swing-trade overlay.

Trade Idea

Setup invalidated — 20 June 2026

Price at $79.39 has broken below EMA20 ($80.38) and sits less than 1 ATR above the stop ($78.40). The original entry at $81.80 is ~3% above spot and no longer represents an actionable pullback — it requires a full recovery to trigger. Do not enter this trade at current levels. Wait for a setup rebuild with fresh entry/stop/target after a base forms above EMA20.

Earnings proximity: Q2 2026 earnings expected late July 2026, within the original 4-10 week horizon. Any re-entry must account for binary earnings risk.
Show original levels (stale — for reference only)
Entry Zone
$81.80
Limit, -1% vs spot, toward rising EMA20
Stop Loss
$78.40
-4.2% risk · below EMA50
Target 1
$88.00
+7.6% · new highs
Target 2
$92.00
+12.5% · stretch / consensus+
Risk/Reward
1:1.82
to TP1 · 1:3.0 to TP2
LevelPricevs EntryNote
Target 2 (stretch)$92.00+12.5%Multiple re-rate + EPS upgrades carry above consensus
Target 1 (base)$88.00+7.6%Breakout to fresh all-time highs above $84
52W High$84.04+2.7%Resistance to clear for the breakout
Entry (limit)$81.800%Shallow pullback toward the rising EMA20 ($80.38)
EMA 50$79.09-3.3%First support; trend intact above
Stop Loss$78.40-4.2%Below EMA50 — trend break, thesis invalidated

Thesis

Buy a wide-moat defensive compounder as it breaks to new highs on accelerating fundamentals. Place a limit at $81.80 (a shallow dip toward the rising EMA20 at $80.38) to capture a pullback, stop at $78.40 below the EMA50 (trend break), and target the breakout to $88, then $92. The 4.2% risk against a 7.6% first target yields a clean 1:1.82 R/R — and the trade carries a 2.7% dividend tailwind while you wait. This is a high-probability, low-volatility swing on one of the highest-quality franchises in staples.

Catalysts

  • Four straight EPS beats — Q2'25 $0.87/$0.84, Q3'25 $0.82/$0.78, Q4'25 $0.58/$0.56, Q1'26 $0.86/$0.81CNBC· 2026
  • FY 2026 comparable-EPS guide updated to +8-9% vs $3.00 in 2025; organic revenue held at +4-5%KO IR· avr 2026
  • Q1'26 organic revenue +10% with +3% global unit-case volume growth
  • Next dividend declaration and continued buyback support EPS and yield floor

Invalidation

  • Daily close below the stop at $78.40 (EMA50 break) — exit
  • A sharp USD rally that flips the FX tailwind to a multi-point headwind
  • Guidance cut or volume deterioration on the next earnings print
  • Horizon: swing, 4-10 weeks; trail the stop to breakeven once $84 is cleared

Disclaimer

This analysis is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or solicitation to buy or sell any security. *Halal-friendly refers to the underlying beverage business; investors with Sharia mandates should verify the latest debt/interest screens independently.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Always conduct your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Pricing & data as of 14 June 2026 (grade updated 20 June 2026). The quoted price ($79.39), technical levels and the entry/stop/target ladder are point-in-time snapshots and will drift; re-verify against live quotes before acting.

Disclosure: DailyTickers and its authors hold no position in KO at the time of publication and receive no compensation from any party mentioned. This is not a paid or sponsored analysis.

Data sourced from Yahoo Finance, StockAnalysis.com, SEC EDGAR, CNBC, and Coca-Cola investor relations. Accuracy is not guaranteed.

Verdict Business Fundamentals Earnings Technical Capital Risks Trade Idea