Intuitive Machines is becoming a broader space-infrastructure prime, but the equity still carries financing and execution risk. Q2 revenue reached a record $206 million, more than four times the prior year, and backlog ended at $1.8 billion after $920 million of Q2 awards plus another $300 million early in Q3. The mix now includes spacecraft production, lunar delivery, mission operations, ground networks and a $600 million-plus commercial GEO satellite contract; national-security revenue rose from 3% to 30% of the quarter. Yet Q2 gross profit was only about $35.9 million before depreciation, operating loss was $47.1 million and operating cash use was $59.8 million. The company also sold stock: $235.2 million of net proceeds came through the $500 million ATM during Q2. The C- grade captures that tension. Status remains watch, with the existing $16.02 confirmation and $14.18 stop unchanged; backlog is not cash and a partial intraday reclaim is not activation.
Intuitive Machines now generates revenue from spacecraft production, lunar payload delivery, mission operations and communications infrastructure. Q2's $206 million included $166.7 million of product revenue, $36.7 million of service revenue and $2.8 million of grants, showing that hardware production currently drives the mix.
The AI and defense transmission channel runs through orbital and lunar data infrastructure: spacecraft collect information, ground stations move it, and mission systems process it for civil, commercial and national-security customers. The Goonhilly and COMSAT acquisition broadens coverage, while NSNS investment targets recurring network revenue rather than one-off lander missions.
The model breaks when awards fail to convert into profitable milestones. Launch or spacecraft failures, fixed-price overruns, delayed government funding, protests, supply constraints and acquisition integration can consume cash before backlog becomes revenue. The $500 million ATM provides funding but transfers part of that execution risk to shareholders through dilution.
| Segment | Revenue | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue category - product | $166.7M Q2 | Spacecraft and program production; 81% of revenue; not a reportable segment |
| Revenue category - service | $36.7M Q2 | Mission, lunar and network services; not a reportable segment |
| Revenue category - grants | $2.8M Q2 | Small, non-core contribution; not a reportable segment |
| Metric | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 GAAP revenue | $206.2M | +310% YoY |
| Q2 gross profit | $35.9M | 17.4% before D&A |
| Q2 operating loss | $47.1M | GAAP |
| Backlog | $1.8B | +$1.5B since year-end 2025 |
| 2026 revenue outlook | $900M-$1.0B | Positive adjusted EBITDA expected |
| Valuation - Class A equity value | $2.72B | As of 2026-08-28: 173,231,343 Class A shares on the August 6 cover times $15.68; versus the old $2.52B bundle, this corrects the stale Class A denominator but still excludes UP-C units |
| Valuation - UP-C economic equity value | $3.59B | As of 2026-08-28: (173,231,343 Class A + 55,692,725 paired Class C/OpCo units) times $15.68; implies the one-for-one exchangeable economic denominator before warrants and awards |
| Valuation - forward economic Price/Revenue | 3.78x | $3.59B UP-C economic equity / $950M FY2026 GAAP guidance midpoint at August 28; versus 3.59x at the $1.0B high end and 3.99x at the $900M low end, backlog conversion must reach guidance |
| Valuation - forward economic EV/Revenue | 3.75x | As of 2026-08-28: ($3.59B economic equity + $336.4M debt - $367.4M cash) / $950M forward guidance midpoint; implies almost no net-debt adjustment but excludes incremental warrant and award dilution |
| Revenue (TTM) | $490.1M | 309.8% YoY |
| EBITDA | N/A | Multiple unavailable |
| Gross Margin | 16.3% | Reported |
| Operating Margin | -18.1% | Loss-making |
| Net Margin | -26.6% | Negative |
| ROE | -30.8% | Capital efficiency |
| Cash | $367.4M | Liquidity; sector accounting may limit direct debt netting |
| Debt | $481.4M | Balance-sheet claim |
| Intrinsic-value model | N/A | Fail-closed: insufficient or non-economic output |
| Value / quality panel | 0 positive / 5 negative / 0 neutral | bearish / confidence 52 |
| Fundamental grade audit | 46/100 (C-) | base +55, growth +14, grossMargin -2, operatingMargin -6, earningsGrowth +0, roe +0, balanceSheet +0, qualityBoard -6, capitalStructure -9, controls +0; capped score 46/100 |
| Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Est. | Surprise | Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3Q2025 | $-0.08 | $-0.05 | -41.3% | - |
| 4Q2025 | $-0.03 | $-0.05 | 25.2% | - |
| 1Q2026 | $-0.05 | $-0.06 | 14.0% | - |
| 2Q2026 | $-0.16 | $-0.07 | -129.0% | - |
Q2 2026 GAAP revenue was $206.2M, up from $50.3M YoY, but GAAP operating loss widened to $47.1M and net loss attributable to Class A holders was $46.6M, or $0.29 per share. Product revenue was $166.7M; service revenue was $36.7M. Gross profit before D&A was approximately $35.9M, or 17.4%. Cash ended at $367.4M, while Q2 operating cash use was $59.8M. Management's non-GAAP outlook is $900M-$1.0B of 2026 revenue and positive adjusted EBITDA. The caveat is that $235.2M of net ATM proceeds funded Q2 and backlog conversion remains milestone-dependent. The official IR calendar and filings reviewed through August 28 do not announce the next earnings date, so it remains not confirmed. — Next: Not confirmed
No structured transaction table was captured.
The header uses the current UP-C economic convention: the August 6 cover reports 173,231,343 quoted Class A shares plus 55,692,725 Class C shares paired with OpCo units exchangeable one-for-one into Class A or, with board approval, cash, producing 228,924,068 current pre-dilution economic shares. At $15.68 this implies about $3.59B economic equity value; the separate $2.72B Class A-only value is shown only as a quoted-class reference. The diluted bridge must use one date consistently: at June 30 there were 169,529,749 Class A plus 55,851,004 paired Class C/OpCo units, or 225,380,753 economic shares; adding Note 17's 39,210,011 potentially dilutive securities yields the 264,590,764 minimum observable diluted June 30 sensitivity before any price-dependent capped-call offset. The $500M ATM sold 8,259,379 Class A shares for $235.2M net by June 30; unused shelf capacity is not counted as issuance.
6 decision-relevant primary filing(s) are displayed with accession-specific findings. Grade C- measures fundamentals; trade state watch measures timing and is evaluated separately.
| Date | Form | Accession | What the filing changes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13 | 10-Q | 0001628280-26-056821 | The June 2026 Form 10-Q reports $367.4 million cash, $336.4 million long-term debt and $235.2 million net ATM proceeds from 8,259,379 Class A shares. Its August 6 cover shows a 228,924,068-share Class A plus paired Class C/OpCo economic base. At June 30, Note 17 reconciles 39,210,011 additional anti-dilutive or contingent securities, including awards, options, preferred conversion shares, warrants, escrow shares and convertible-note shares, to 264,590,764 gross economic shares before any capped-call offset. |
| 2026-03-19 | 10-K | 0001628280-26-019865 | The 2025 Form 10-K establishes Intuitive Machines' loss history, government-customer concentration, mission and launch exposure, internal-control risks and pre-acquisition balance-sheet baseline for judging 2026 expansion. |
| 2026-08-13 | 8-K | 0001628280-26-056476 | The August 13 Form 8-K furnished the direct Q2 earnings exhibit reporting $206.2 million revenue, $1.8 billion backlog and 2026 revenue guidance of $900 million to $1.0 billion. |
| 2026-06-03 | 424B5 | 0001193125-26-254159 | The June 3 prospectus supplement establishes up to $500 million of Class A common-stock ATM capacity, authorizing market sales through named agents and direct dilution when shares are sold. |
| 2026-06-03 | S-3ASR | 0001193125-26-254046 | The June 3 automatic shelf registers broad securities capacity but does not itself identify shares sold, proceeds received or ATM usage; transaction evidence comes from the prospectus supplement and 10-Q. |
| 2026-04-01 | S-3ASR | 0001193125-26-138169 | The April 1 automatic shelf provides earlier registration capacity across common, preferred, debt and warrant securities; without a transaction-specific supplement it is not evidence of issuance or proceeds. |
LUNR point-in-time short-interest context only; no acceleration claim without a comparable dated series.
Unusual Activity: No unusual activity confirmed
| RSI (14) | 48.9 |
| EMA 20 | $16.57 |
| EMA 50 | N/A |
| EMA 200 | N/A |
| MACD | N/A |
| ATR (14) | $1.48 |
| Wyckoff | Transitional |
LUNR remains watch below the unchanged $16.02 activation. The quote was $15.68 at 2026-08-28T14:16:45Z; daily RSI 48.9 is neutral, price is below the $16.57 EMA20 but above the $15.63 EMA50 and $14.90 EMA200. The $14.18 stop is the August 13 gap-day low; targets are the August 21 rebound high at $18.9799 and August 17 swing high at $20.84. Those dated pivots produce 1.61R and 2.62R, not template projections. Activation still requires the specified completed 15-minute close with non-zero RTH volume. Daily bars end at 2026-08-27.
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Reference close | 2026-08-27 | Daily structure is point-in-time controlled |
| Quote snapshot | 2026-08-28T14:16:45Z | Exact timestamp; not represented as a publication-time live quote |
| Opening observation | 2026-08-28T13:30:00Z | Regular-session range used for the single activation level |
Regime: risk-on
LUNR is high-beta exposure to U.S. civil-space budgets, missile-defense spending and commercial satellite capex. AI demand matters only where it increases demand for orbital sensing, communications and data processing. Launch availability, federal appropriations and procurement timing have a much larger near-term effect than QQQ direction.
Record awards and backlog support the strategic story, but low gross margin, negative operating cash flow, mission risk and demonstrated ATM usage make this a speculative execution trade rather than a self-funding compounder.
In the retail war room, a launch, mission, protest or financing headline can create an overnight gap through $14.18. Liquidity is usually adequate but spreads and slippage can widen around aerospace events, so use limit orders and size for the full 11.5% planned loss plus gap risk. Do not chase a contract headline above $16.02, and wait for a confirmed earnings date before carrying event exposure.
LUNR: directional flow remains unscored because no dated, inspectable transaction-level source was captured.
The watch setup is supported by record backlog, diversified awards and a path toward positive adjusted EBITDA, but it must compensate for low gross margin, the 228.9M-share UP-C economic base, 264.6M gross June 30 exposure and active ATM issuance. Keep the unchanged $16.02 activation and August 13 structural stop at $14.18; use the dated August 21 and August 17 highs at $18.9799 and $20.84 as targets. A completed 15-minute close with non-zero RTH volume is mandatory, and the unconfirmed earnings calendar rules out casual overnight sizing.
In the retail war room, a launch, mission, protest or financing headline can create an overnight gap through $14.18. Current trade state: watch.
This analysis is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or solicitation to buy or sell any security.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Always conduct your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Data comes from point-in-time market snapshots, company filings, Yahoo Finance, SEC EDGAR, and public market data. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
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