Intuitive Machines has outgrown the lunar-lander label: a record $1.8B contracted backlog, ~$1.2B of fresh awards, a $600M+ commercial satellite program and its sixth NASA CLPS mission now frame it as a diversified space-infrastructure prime. Revenue is compounding fast (~$490M TTM, +310% YoY) toward $900M–$1B 2026 guidance. The catch is structural: the company is still loss-making, carries negative book value, and is actively selling stock through a $500M at-the-market program. This is a backlog-and-squeeze momentum trade, not an investment on fundamentals, sized small, with dilution as the ceiling.
Intuitive Machines (LUNR) began as a lunar-lander developer, it put the first US commercial spacecraft on the Moon, and is now repositioning as a broader space-infrastructure prime. Its work spans NASA's Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) missions, lunar data relay and communications, orbital services, and, increasingly, national-security and commercial satellite programs. Intuitive Machines IR· août 2026
The 2026 story is the backlog: management reported a record ~$1.8B of contracted work and roughly $1.2B of new bookings in Q2 alone, including a $600M-plus multi-satellite communications program and selection by NASA's JPL for the IM-300-class EAGLE-VSWIR Earth-observation mission (targeting a 2028 launch). Revenue is compounding fast, but the business still burns cash and funds its growth partly by issuing stock. Q2 2026 Results· août 2026
| Segment | Revenue | % Total | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lunar Access & Data | core | core | CLPS lander missions, lunar payload delivery, data relay / communications |
| Space Infrastructure & National Security | growth | growth | Orbital services, commercial & government satellite programs, engineering services |
| Metric | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (TTM) | $490M | +310% YoY |
| EBITDA | -$74M | Burning |
| Gross Margin | 16.3% | Thin |
| Operating Margin | -18.1% | Unprofitable |
| Net Margin | -26.6% | Loss-making |
| Cash | $367M | vs $481M debt |
| Book Value | -$1.71/sh | Negative equity |
| EV / Revenue | ~6.0x | Elevated |
| Short Interest | 27.1% | Squeeze fuel |
| Analyst Target | $29.25 | +68% upside |
| Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Est. | Surprise | Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $-0.16 | $-0.07 | miss | ~$206M |
| Q1 2026 | $-0.05 | $-0.06 | beat | — |
| Q4 2025 | $-0.03 | $-0.05 | beat | — |
| Q3 2025 | $-0.08 | $-0.05 | miss | — |
Still loss-making; Q2 2026 missed badly (-$0.16 vs -$0.07) even as revenue and backlog surged. — Next: November 2026 (est.), no print within the trade horizon
| RSI (14) | 55.0 |
| EMA 20 | $16.84 |
| EMA 50 | $18.45 |
| EMA 200 | $18.99 |
| MACD | 0.500 |
| Signal | -0.230 |
| ATR (14) | $1.55 |
Price ($17.43) is holding just above the rising 20-day EMA ($16.84) after the backlog-driven pop, with a fresh MACD bullish cross and RSI a neutral 55, not extended. It sits below the 50-day ($18.45) and 200-day ($18.99), so this is a reclaim attempt, not an established uptrend. Clean levels: resistance at $20.31 (mid-Aug swing zone, session high $20.84) then $21.83–$22.46; support at the 20-day EMA, then the $15.5 breakout base and the hard $11.33 shelf. ATR $1.55 (~9%) means small position sizing is mandatory.
A real, fast-growing backlog wrapped around a loss-making balance sheet that funds itself by selling stock. Upside is capped by dilution; downside is amplified by leverage, negative equity and a high-beta, heavily-shorted float.
LUNR pulled back to its 20-day EMA after a backlog-and-contract-driven pop, with a fresh MACD cross and a neutral RSI, a clean momentum entry rather than a chase. A record $1.8B backlog, a $600M+ satellite win and 27% short interest give it both a fundamental catalyst and squeeze fuel. This is a speculative, small-size trade: the live $500M ATM caps the upside, so take profits into resistance and do not marry the position.
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Data sourced from real-time market data, Yahoo Finance, SEC EDGAR, and public market data. Accuracy is not guaranteed.