MARA is an industrial bitcoin producer with treasury leverage, not an AI data-center company in current reported economics. Q2 revenue fell 27% YoY to $174.9 million despite 70.3 EH/s energized hashrate, because mining economics remained exposed to network difficulty, power cost and bitcoin price. Production improved 3% YoY to 2,422 BTC, but purchased-energy cost per coin rose 14.7% to $38,690 and GAAP net loss reached $611.3 million, including a $343 million bitcoin fair-value loss. The balance sheet carried 35,577 BTC and $421.3 million cash, yet $2.47 billion of debt and a subsequent $600 million BTC-backed facility increase common-equity convexity. Long Ridge and Matagorda create credible power-site optionality for AI/HPC, but neither is a contracted AI revenue stream in the quarter. A D+ quality grade is therefore appropriate: scale and assets are real, earnings quality and leverage are weak. The current trade remains watch-only until $11.60 confirms; bitcoin rallies cannot substitute for improving cost per hash and financing discipline.
MARA earns current revenue by operating bitcoin-mining fleets: realized BTC price, coins produced, network difficulty, fleet efficiency and power cost determine gross economics. Q2 production was 2,422 BTC from 70.3 EH/s energized hashrate, but revenue still fell because capacity did not offset weaker price-volume economics. It sold 2,213 BTC at an average $73,078, making treasury-sale policy another cash-flow variable.
The AI transmission channel is physical power infrastructure. Long Ridge and prospective Matagorda capacity could host HPC loads, but conversion requires interconnection, cooling, customer contracts, construction capital and service-level reliability; no Q2 AI revenue was reported and no site right should be modeled as rent.
The model breaks when hashprice falls below fleet-and-power cost, collateralized BTC declines, curtailment or interconnection delays reduce utilization, or debt-funded expansion fails to produce per-share cash flow. Treasury appreciation can mask weak mining unit economics temporarily, while pledged coins become less available precisely when financing tightens.
| Segment | Revenue | % Total | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consolidated reported operations | $174.9M Q2 revenue | 2,422 BTC produced | The latest 10-Q presents consolidated mining and digital-infrastructure results and does not provide a separate ASC 280 segment table. |
| No separate AI/HPC reportable segment | $0 disclosed Q2 AI/HPC revenue | No contracted segment revenue | Long Ridge and Matagorda are acquisition and development optionality; mining unit costs and treasury collateral belong in KPI and capital analysis, not in a segment table. |
| Metric | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 revenue | $174.9M | -27% YoY |
| Q2 BTC produced | 2,422 BTC | +3% YoY; +8% QoQ |
| Energized hashrate | 70.3 EH/s | +22% YoY |
| Purchased-energy cost/BTC | $38,690 | +14.7% YoY |
| Q2 adjusted EBITDA | -$360.9M | Non-GAAP |
| Scenario/NAV framework | $263.8M residual, or $0.56 per 468.992M minimum diluted shares | Scenario as of 2026-08-27 using $65,000/BTC: 35,577 BTC plus $421.3M cash less $2.47B debt; 386.3M basic shares plus 82.692M Q2 anti-dilutive securities produce the minimum denominator |
| Revenue (TTM) | $804.2M | -26.7% YoY |
| Gross Margin | 40.1% | Reported |
| Operating Margin | -265.2% | Loss-making |
| Net Margin | N/A | Not reliably available |
| ROE | -105.6% | Capital efficiency |
| Cash | $421.3M | Liquidity; sector accounting may limit direct debt netting |
| Debt | $2.47B | Balance-sheet claim |
| Intrinsic-value model | N/A | Fail-closed: insufficient or non-economic output |
| Value / quality panel | 0 positive / 5 negative / 0 neutral | bearish / confidence 52 |
| Fundamental grade audit | 39/100 (D+) | base +55, growth -7, grossMargin +4, operatingMargin -6, earningsGrowth +0, roe +0, balanceSheet +0, qualityBoard -6, capitalStructure -1, controls +0; capped score 39/100 |
| Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Est. | Surprise | Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3Q2025 | $0.37 | $0.35 | 6.0% | - |
| 4Q2025 | $-0.77 | $-0.03 | -2986.4% | - |
| 1Q2026 | $-0.63 | $-0.85 | 26.1% | - |
| 2Q2026 | $-0.62 | $-0.48 | -30.6% | - |
Q2 2026 revenue was $174.9M, down 27% YoY from $238.5M. MARA produced 2,422 BTC, up 3% YoY, while energized hashrate rose 22% to 70.3 EH/s; purchased-energy cost per BTC increased 14.7% to $38,690. A $343M BTC fair-value loss helped drive the GAAP result to a $611.3M net loss, or -$1.60 per share. The separate non-GAAP bridge ended at -$360.9M of adjusted EBITDA. No annual revenue or EPS guidance was issued; the principal caveat is that BTC accounting and treasury sales can dominate mining operating trends. — Next: 2026-11-04
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-17 | Thiel Frederick G | sell | 27,505 | $299,805 |
| 2026-07-20 | Nowaid Zabi | sell | 8,376 | $100,512 |
| 2026-07-17 | Khan Salman Hassan | sell | 16,000 | $174,400 |
| 2026-06-22 | MELLINGER DOUGLAS K | sell | 7,000 | $112,000 |
| 2026-06-17 | Khan Salman Hassan | sell | 16,000 | $228,000 |
| 2026-06-17 | Nowaid Zabi | sell | 7,000 | $99,750 |
| 2026-06-17 | Thiel Frederick G | sell | 27,505 | $391,946 |
| 2026-05-18 | Thiel Frederick G | sell | 27,505 | $330,060 |
Structured transactions shown; grants and sales are not treated as thesis confirmation.
MARA's 386.3M basic-share snapshot sits behind $2.47B of debt. The Q2 10-Q identifies 82,691,847 anti-dilutive potential shares: 12,385,624 RSUs, 20,950,294 performance RSUs at maximum vesting and 49,355,929 convertible-note shares. Adding them gives a 468.992M minimum dilution sensitivity, not a current GAAP diluted count because vesting and conversion conditions remain conditional. After quarter-end, two $300M bitcoin-backed facilities were initially collateralized by 18,750 BTC; they are secured debt, not equity issuance or the separate up-to-$600M Matagorda milestone consideration.
3 decision-relevant primary filing(s) are displayed with accession-specific findings. Grade D+ measures fundamentals; trade state watch measures timing and is evaluated separately.
| Date | Form | Accession | What the filing changes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 | 10-Q | 0001507605-26-000022 | The Q2 10-Q supports $421.3M cash, $2.47B debt and 35,577 BTC, and discloses two post-quarter $300M bitcoin-backed facilities initially collateralized by 18,750 BTC: Coinbase at federal-funds midpoint plus 3.875% and Two Prime at fixed 7.65%. This is secured debt, not equity issuance or the separate Matagorda consideration. |
| 2026-08-06 | 8-K | 0001507605-26-000020 | The August 6 8-K furnishes the shareholder letter reporting $174.9M revenue, 2,422 BTC produced, -$360.9M non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA and subsequent $600M BTC-backed acquisition debt facilities. |
| 2026-03-02 | 10-K | 0001507605-26-000007 | The 2025 10-K establishes mining, power, network-difficulty, custody and debt risks plus the annual control baseline; it does not support treating prospective HPC sites as contracted revenue. |
MARA point-in-time short-interest context only; no acceleration claim without a comparable dated series.
Unusual Activity: No unusual activity confirmed
| RSI (14) | 63.3 |
| EMA 20 | $10.86 |
| EMA 50 | N/A |
| EMA 200 | N/A |
| MACD | N/A |
| ATR (14) | $0.91 |
| Wyckoff | Transitional |
MARA stays on watch at $11.60; eligibility requires the 15-minute bar to finish above that level with non-zero regular-session volume. Until that close occurs, the August 25 low at $10.93 is not an operative stop and the July 21 $12.76 and July 23 $13.1599 highs are dormant objectives. The $11.13 quote carries the exact timestamp 2026-08-28T14:03:50Z. Its opening range started at 2026-08-28T13:30:00Z, and daily indicators use closes through 2026-08-27. BTC momentum does not override watch status.
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Reference close | 2026-08-27 | Daily structure is point-in-time controlled |
| Quote snapshot | 2026-08-28T14:03:50Z | Exact timestamp; not represented as a publication-time live quote |
| Opening observation | 2026-08-28T13:30:00Z | Regular-session range used for the single activation level |
Regime: risk-on
MARA converts electricity into BTC, so bitcoin price, global network difficulty and locational power cost determine mining spread. Credit conditions matter through $2.47B debt and BTC-backed borrowing. AI demand matters only if power sites secure financeable leases at returns exceeding mining conversion value.
MARA combines deteriorating mining revenue with treasury and collateral leverage; negative adjusted EBITDA, pledged bitcoin and debt-funded site expansion can reinforce one another during a BTC drawdown, while the AI option remains too early to provide an operating offset. Retail war-room: model a BTC or collateral headline gap through $10.93, route limits during regular-session liquidity because miner spreads and slippage expand at the open, size for the full $0.67 risk, avoid financing and earnings events, and never chase above the $11.60 activation; $12.76 is the first planned exit at about 1.73R.
Track revenue per EH/s, purchased-energy cost per BTC, total coins sold, pledged or loaned BTC, depreciation and debt service together. Hashrate alone is a capacity statistic; economic growth requires more residual cash flow and unencumbered treasury value per diluted share.
MARA: directional flow remains unscored because no dated, inspectable transaction-level source was captured.
The watch thesis requires $11.60 confirmation plus evidence that BTC strength is improving mining spread after energy cost and network difficulty; the unchanged post-trigger stop is $10.93. Dated resistance at $12.76 and $13.1599 provides about 1.73R and 2.33R. Power-site optionality contributes no base-case value until a financeable customer contract discloses capacity, conversion capex, timing and returns; treasury gains alone cannot repair negative adjusted EBITDA.
Track revenue per EH/s, purchased-energy cost per BTC, total coins sold, pledged or loaned BTC, depreciation and debt service together. Current trade state: watch.
This analysis is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or solicitation to buy or sell any security.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Always conduct your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Data comes from point-in-time market snapshots, company filings, Yahoo Finance, SEC EDGAR, and public market data. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
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