DailyTickers

ROK — Rockwell Automation

NYSE · Industrials · 2026-06-14
$495.08 +0.00% Quality Momentum Score 72 B+ ☪ Halal Score 50 B+
$52.7B
Market Cap
32.6x
Fwd P/E
1.56
Beta
$305 – $476
52W Range
1.17%
Div Yield
ROK Chart
Click to enlarge

Verdict Express

B+ Neutral 12% confidence

Rockwell is the largest pure-play industrial automation vendor in the US — the “pick-and-shovel” on factory reshoring, electrification and AI-driven plant modernization. Five consecutive earnings beats (average surprise ~+12%), an accelerating FY26 guide, a clean balance sheet and an aggressive buyback make the operating story A+. But at $473.79 the stock sits near its 52W high ($475.92) with R/R to TP1 degraded to just 0.45 — well below the 1.5 actionable floor. Fwd P/E 32.6 and PEG 2.06 make it the richest valuation in the cohort, and ~4.5% extension above EMA20 means a buyer here is chasing. Grade downgraded from A to B+: not actionable for new entries at this price. StockAnalysis· jun 2026

Why Buy

  • 5 straight EPS beats, average surprise ~+12% — durable execution
  • FY26 adjusted EPS guide raised to $12.50–$13.10 (~22% YoY at midpoint)
  • ROE 27.2%, ~48.9% gross margin — high-quality compounder
  • Clean balance sheet: no equity dilution, share count shrinking
  • Orderly uptrend with intact EMA stack — but now ~4.5% above EMA20

Why Avoid

  • R/R at spot only 0.45 to TP1 — well below the 1.5 actionable floor
  • Richest valuation of the set (fwd P/E 32.6, PEG 2.06) — de-rates fastest on a miss
  • Near 52W high ($475.92) with ~4.5% extension above EMA20 — chasing risk
  • Beta 1.56 — amplifies broad-market drawdowns

Business Overview

Rockwell Automation is the largest US-listed pure-play industrial automation company — the controls, software and services backbone of modern factories. It sells through three segments: Intelligent Devices (drives, motion, safety, sensing), Software & Control (the flagship Logix controllers, FactoryTalk software and the Plex/Fiix cloud suite) and Lifecycle Services (engineering, consulting and the Sensia oilfield JV). The Logix/FactoryTalk install base is the moat: once a plant standardizes on Rockwell's control architecture, switching costs are high and aftermarket software/services revenue compounds for decades. SEC EDGAR· 10-K

The structural tailwinds are exactly the ones the market is paying up for: US reshoring of manufacturing, grid & electrification capex, life-sciences and EV plant buildouts, and now an AI-in-the-plant narrative where Rockwell's data layer feeds analytics and autonomous operations. It is a short-cycle, cyclical business — orders track factory capex and PMI — but the recurring software and services mix is steadily de-cyclicalizing the model. TTM revenue is roughly $8.8B on a reported basis with adjusted segment economics driving the EPS engine. Yahoo Finance· live

Fundamentals

MetricValueSignal
Revenue (TTM)$8.80B+9% Q2 organic
Net Income (TTM)$1.09BProfitable
EPS (TTM)$9.63Growing
Gross Margin48.9%Strong
Operating Margin20.7%Healthy
ROE27.2%High-quality
ROIC16.4%Above WACC
Debt / Equity1.15Manageable
P/E (Trailing)49.3xRich
Fwd P/E32.6xPremium
Dividend Yield1.17%Steady payer
Analyst Target (avg)$465Buy · range $282–$525

Capital Structure & Dilution

N/A
Shares Out.
N/A
Authorized
critical
Dilution Risk

Technical Analysis

RSI (14)55.1
EMA 20$4.50
EMA 50$435.97
EMA 200$390.10
MACD0.000
ATR (14)$13.03
Above EMA200 Above EMA50 Above EMA20 RSI Neutral-Bull

Technical Setup

Textbook bullish stack: EMA20 ($453) > EMA50 ($436) > EMA200 ($390), price riding above the 20-day. The stock has pushed through its prior 52-week high ($476) after rallying from a $305 low — a clean primary uptrend, not a parabolic blow-off. RSI at 55.1 sits in the healthy zone, leaving room before overbought. Extension above EMA20 is ~4.5%, meaning a buyer at spot is somewhat extended. ATR $13.03 (~2.8%) makes ~1.8x ATR a sensible stop distance. The risk for the chartist is the proximity to ATH: a failed breakout could trigger a quick mean-reversion toward the EMA50 zone. Finviz· jun 2026

Risk Analysis

Risk Profile: Moderate

A high-quality, cash-generative compounder with no balance-sheet or dilution risk. The risk that does matter is valuation + cyclicality: a rich multiple on a short-cycle, beta-1.56 name means downside is faster and deeper if factory orders soften or the market de-risks.

Valuation De-Rating

High
  • 32.6x forward / 49.3x trailing is the richest multiple in the cohort
  • Priced for flawless execution — little room for a guide cut
  • A single soft quarter could compress the multiple by several turns
Probability
Impact
This is the axis that drove the downgrade to B+ — not actionable at spot

Short-Cycle Demand

Medium
  • Orders track factory capex, ISM/PMI and customer destocking cycles
  • A manufacturing slowdown hits Intelligent Devices first
  • Recurring software/services mix cushions but does not eliminate the cycle
Probability
Impact
Reshoring + software mix offsets, but watch the PMI prints

Beta & Market Drawdown

Medium
  • Beta 1.56 amplifies broad-market selloffs
  • Near 52-week highs — a failed breakout invites quick mean-reversion
  • Industrials rotate hard with the macro risk regime
Probability
Impact
Defined stop at the EMA50 cluster keeps the drawdown contained

Balance Sheet & Dilution

Low
  • No equity shelf, no ATM, no toxic financing — verified on EDGAR
  • Investment-grade leverage (D/E 1.15), strong free cash flow
  • Buyback shrinking share count, 1.17% dividend
Probability
Impact
Financial risk is genuinely low — this is a quality name

Risk Synthesis

On business quality, ROK is one of the safest names in the set — durable moat, 27.2% ROE, clean balance sheet, no dilution. What pulls the risk score up to 4/10 is purely price: you are paying a premium multiple for a cyclical, high-beta stock near all-time highs. The drawdown risk is not bankruptcy risk — it is multiple-compression risk on a disappointment. That is a very different (and more recoverable) flavor of risk, but it is real, and it is why the disciplined entry/stop below matters. MarketBeat· jun 2026

Trade Idea

TP1-HIT
Entry Zone
$457.00
Stop Loss
$433.70
-5.1% risk
Target 1
$492.00
+7.7% upside
Target 2
$527.00
+15.3% upside
Risk/Reward
1:1.5

Thesis

Update 20 Jun 2026: ROK has rallied from the $457 published entry to $473.79, near its 52W high of $475.92. From spot, R/R to TP1 is now only 0.45 (was 1.5 at publication) — this trade is no longer actionable for new entries. The original levels are preserved below for reference and for holders already in the position.

Catalysts

  • Q2 FY25 adj. EPS $2.45 vs $2.09 est (+17.2%) — sales/margins above plan
  • Q3 FY25 adj. EPS $2.82 vs $2.67 est (+5.6%) — $0.15 above consensus
  • Q4 FY25 adj. EPS $3.34 (+13.6% surprise) — strong year-end execution
  • Q1 FY26 adj. EPS $2.75 vs $2.48 est (+10.7%), organic sales +10%, FY26 guide first lifted to $11.40–$12.20
  • FY26 guide cut or an orders/PMI miss that triggers multiple compression

Invalidation

  • Daily close below the stop / EMA50 cluster ($433.70 / $435.97) on elevated volume
  • FY26 guide cut or an orders/PMI miss that triggers multiple compression
  • Broad risk-off rotation out of high-beta industrials (beta 1.56)

Disclaimer

This analysis is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or solicitation to buy or sell any security.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Always conduct your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Data sourced from DailyTickers Gateway, Yahoo Finance, SEC EDGAR, and public market data. Accuracy is not guaranteed.

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