SNEX — StoneX Group Inc.

NASDAQ · Financial Services · 10 juin 2026
$122.09 +3.74% Momentum Score 96 A+ CONV
$9.68B
Market Cap
783.1K
Volume
18.4x
Fwd P/E
0.90
Beta
$54 – $125
52W Range
2.8%
Short Interest
SNEX Chart
Click to enlarge

Verdict Express

A+ Bullish High% confidence

StoneX is executing a textbook earnings acceleration cycle — the most reliable predictor of sustained price appreciation. Four consecutive quarters of widening beats signal fundamental improvement that analysts haven't fully modeled. At 18x forward PE for a business growing 30%+, this remains significantly undervalued relative to growth.

Why Buy

  • Earnings acceleration: 4Q of widening beats (+0.5% → +32%)
  • Only 2.7% from ATH — breakout imminent
  • Forward PE 18.4x for 30%+ growth = PEG < 0.6
  • Price 48% above 200-day EMA — strong institutional sponsorship
  • Clean flags: no dilution, no compliance issues

Why Avoid

  • Financial services sector — not Sharia compliant
  • Revenue volatility tied to trading volumes
  • RSI 66 approaching overbought zone

Business Overview

StoneX Group is a global financial services network connecting companies, organizations, traders, and investors to the global market ecosystem. The company operates across five segments: Commercial (hedging and risk management for commodity producers), Institutional (execution services for banks and asset managers), Retail (forex and CFD trading platforms), Global Payments (cross-border payments in 185+ countries), and Securities (clearing and execution).

StoneX benefits from market volatility through its diversified business model — higher volatility drives more hedging demand, trading volumes, and clearing activity. The company has tripled its stock price since 2024 with consistent market share gains across all segments.

Fundamentals

MetricValueSignal
Revenue (TTM)$N/AN/A YoY
EBITDA$N/ANegative
Gross MarginN/AWeak
Operating MarginN/ANegative
Net MarginN/ALoss
ROEN/ANegative
Cash$N/A
Debt$1.20BDebt/MCap 12.4%
Fwd P/E18.4xFair
Analyst TargetN/A

Technical Analysis

RSI (14)66.4
EMA 20$113.20
EMA 50$105.50
EMA 200$82.60
MACD2.920
Signal2.790
ATR (14)$5.26
Above EMA200 Above EMA50 MACD Bullish RSI Neutral

Technical Setup

Powerful bullish structure with EMA20 ($113.2) > EMA50 ($105.5) > EMA200 ($82.6), massive separation indicating institutional accumulation. RSI at 66.4 — bullish momentum with room to run. MACD bullish above signal line. Price up 128% from 52-week low ($53.53), consolidating near ATH for potential breakout.

Risk Analysis

20/10
Risk

Risk Profile: Moderate

Low-risk momentum play with accelerating fundamentals and clean technical structure.

Revenue Cyclicality

Low
  • Trading volumes decline in low-volatility environments
  • Commission revenue sensitive to market activity levels
Probability
Impact
Diversified business model across 5 segments mitigates single-source risk

RSI Approaching Overbought

Low
  • RSI 66.4 nearing 70 overbought threshold
  • Short-term pullback possible before continuation
Probability
Impact
RSI in healthy momentum zone; pullbacks to EMA20 are buying opportunities

Trade Idea

Entry Zone
$121.00
Momentum entry
Stop Loss
$113.50
-6.2% risk
Target 1
$138.00
+14.0% upside
Target 2
$150.00
+24.0% stretch
Risk/Reward
1:2.3
20-day horizon

Thesis

StoneX shows the rarest pattern in markets: four consecutive quarters of accelerating earnings surprises (+0.5% → +7% → +26% → +32%). This earnings acceleration profile historically produces sustained multi-month rallies. The stock is 2.7% from ATH with a massive 200-day separation indicating institutional sponsorship.

Catalysts

  • 4 consecutive accelerating earnings beats: +0.5% → +7% → +26% → +32%
  • Q1 2026 EPS $2.17 vs $1.64 est — acceleration inflection confirmed
  • Revenue diversification across commodities, FX, and securities clearing
  • Volatility regime benefits StoneX's market-making and clearing operations

Invalidation

  • Break below EMA20 ($113.20) on volume > 1M
  • Earnings deceleration in Q2 report
  • Sharp VIX collapse reducing trading volumes

Disclaimer

This analysis is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or solicitation to buy or sell any security.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Always conduct your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Data sourced from DailyTickers Gateway, Yahoo Finance, SEC EDGAR, and public market data. Accuracy is not guaranteed.

Verdict Business Fundamentals Technical Risks Trade Idea