TER — Teradyne, Inc.

NASDAQ · Semiconductors — Test Equipment · 14 juin 2026
$403.20 +5.72% Momentum Score 94 A+ ☪ Halal
$63.1B
Market Cap
3.10M
Volume
48.6x
Fwd P/E
1.79
Beta
$83 – $422
52W Range
0.13%
Div Yield
~1.9
PEG
TER Chart
Click to enlarge

Verdict Express

A+ Bullish High confidence

Teradyne is the purest large-cap lever on the AI test-intensity cycle: every advanced GPU, HBM stack and custom ASIC needs more — and more complex — testing, and Teradyne owns that toll booth. EPS has accelerated violently from $0.57 to $2.56 across four straight beats, with revenue up +87% YoY in Q1 2026 and AI now ~70% of sales Yahoo Finance· avr 2026. The stock is the most extended name in our set (+8% above its EMA20) and high-beta — we trade it with a disciplined pullback entry.

Why Buy

  • 4 consecutive beats; EPS ramp $0.57 → $2.56 with rising magnitude
  • Record revenue +87% YoY, AI ~70% of sales, HBM/Magnum 7 ramping
  • PEG ~1.9 — a premium, but defensible against an 87% revenue growth rate
  • Pristine balance sheet: $246M cash vs only $82M debt, 28.8% ROE
  • Capital returned via buybacks + dividend; share count flat/declining

Why Avoid

  • Most extended name in the set — +8% above EMA20, ATR ~5.6%
  • High beta 1.79 — amplifies any broad risk-off move
  • Rich multiples (EV/EBITDA fwd ~36, fwd P/E ~49x) leave no room for a miss
  • Test capex is cyclical — a digestion phase would compress estimates fast

Business Overview

Teradyne designs and sells the automated test equipment (ATE) that semiconductor makers use to validate chips before they ship. Its Semiconductor Test segment — the engine — crossed $1B in a single quarter for the first time, split between System-on-Chip ($882M) and Memory ($203M), the latter riding HBM and DRAM demand on the newly-ramped Magnum 7 tester Kalkine· avr 2026.

Two adjacencies round out the model: Product Test (~$80M) and a Robotics arm — Universal Robots and Mobile Industrial Robots — that just posted its fourth consecutive quarter of sequential growth (~$91M). The investment thesis is a toll-booth one: as AI accelerators, custom ASICs and stacked HBM grow more complex, test intensity (test cost per device) rises structurally, and Teradyne captures that with a high-margin razor-and-blade installed base. Management reiterated a long-term model of $6B revenue and $9.50–$11.00 EPS Yahoo Finance· avr 2026.

Recent News

DateHeadlineImpact
12 juin 2026Teradyne to join the Nasdaq-100 in the June 22 quarterly rebalancePositive
13 juin 2026KLA, Amkor and Teradyne shares skyrocket on AI test-demand strengthPositive
29 avr 2026Q1 2026: record revenue $1.282B (+87% YoY), non-GAAP EPS $2.56, AI ~70% of salesPositive
29 avr 2026Memory $203M on robust HBM/DRAM demand; Magnum 7 tester ramped successfullyPositive
29 avr 2026Long-term model reiterated: $6B revenue, $9.50–$11.00 EPSNeutral

Fundamentals

MetricValueSignal
Revenue (TTM)$3.79B+87% YoY
EBITDA$1.16B30.7% margin
Gross Margin58.7%Strong
Operating Margin37.6%Excellent
Net Margin22.6%Healthy
ROE28.8%High
Cash$245.6MNet cash
Debt$82.4MDebt/MCap 0.1%
Fwd P/E48.6xPEG ~1.9
EV/EBITDA (fwd)~36xGrowth premium
Analyst Target$374.82Buy consensus

The balance sheet is the standout: $246M cash against just $82M of debt makes Teradyne essentially net-cash, and the 0.1% debt/market-cap ratio is what keeps it sharia-compatible despite a momentum profile. Multiples are rich (fwd P/E ~49x, fwd EV/EBITDA ~36x), and a PEG near 1.9 is a real premium — defensible only while the 87% revenue growth rate holds. Note the analyst mean target ($374.82) sits below spot — the tape has front-run the sell side, a classic feature of a fast-re-rating leader.

Capital Structure & Dilution

Buybacks & Dividend

Low
  • ~156.5M shares outstanding as of Mar 29, 2026 — flat to declining
  • Q1 2026 dividend raised to $0.13/sh (from $0.12), ~$20.4M paid
  • Repurchases active — capital returned to holders, not raised
Net capital return: the share count is shrinking, not diluting

No Active ATM / S-3 Raise

Low
  • No active at-the-market program or S-3 equity raise on file
  • No mandatory convertible, no toxic financing, no stock-deal M&A
  • SBC immaterial relative to net-cash balance sheet and free cash flow
Clean structure — zero dilution overhang for a large-cap

Dilution Verdict: Clean

Teradyne returns capital through buybacks and a growing dividend with a flat-to-declining share count, and carries no active ATM, S-3 equity shelf, mandatory convertible or stock-funded M&A. This is a textbook clean large-cap.

Technical Analysis

RSI (14)57.5
EMA 20$373.25
EMA 50$357.22
EMA 200$268.64
MACD7.03
Signal6.58
ATR (14)$22.75 (~5.6%)
Above EMA200 Above EMA50 MACD Bullish Extended +8% vs EMA20

Technical Setup

Textbook bull stack: EMA20 ($373.25) > EMA50 ($357.22) > EMA200 ($268.64), all rising, with price near the 52-week high ($422.11) Finviz· live. MACD (7.03) is above signal (6.58) and RSI ~58 sits in a healthy, non-overbought momentum zone — there is room to run. The catch: at $403.20 the stock is ~8% above its EMA20 and ATR is a wide $22.75 (~5.6%), so chasing the very top is poor risk. We enter into a shallow $398–$402 zone toward the rising trend, with a stop just under EMA20 — keeping the reward-to-risk above 1.5 at an actionable price.

Risk Analysis

6/10
Risk

Risk Profile: Elevated

High-quality, clean-balance-sheet leader — but extended, high-beta and richly valued. The fundamental risk is low; the timing/volatility risk is the real exposure.

High beta 1.79 Extended +8% vs EMA20 Rich fwd P/E ~49x Zero dilution

Extension & Volatility

High
  • +8% above EMA20, ATR ~5.6% — the most stretched name in the set
  • Beta 1.79 amplifies any broad risk-off swing
Probability
Impact
Don't chase — enter on a pullback toward EMA20 and size for the wide ATR

Valuation Premium

Medium
  • Fwd EV/EBITDA ~36, fwd P/E ~49x — priced for continued execution
  • Analyst mean target ($375) sits below spot
Probability
Impact
PEG ~1.9 keeps the premium defensible while growth holds — a miss would re-rate fast

Test-Capex Cyclicality

Medium
  • ATE demand tracks chipmaker capex — historically cyclical
  • An AI-capex digestion phase would compress estimates quickly
Probability
Impact
Test intensity is structurally rising, but the order book can still air-pocket

Dilution & Balance Sheet

Low
  • Net cash, no ATM/S-3 raise, share count flat to declining
  • Capital returned via buybacks + growing dividend
Probability
Impact
No dilution overhang — a genuine quality balance sheet

Why the Risk Sits at 6/10

Teradyne's business risk is low — it is a profitable, net-cash, structurally-advantaged leader with zero dilution. What lifts the gauge to 6/10 is purely tactical: the stock is extended +8% above its EMA20, carries a 1.79 beta and a ~5.6% ATR, and trades at a rich multiple (PEG ~1.9) that the sell side has not caught up to. Manage that with a disciplined entry zone near support and tight sizing rather than buying the very top.

Trade Idea

Entry Zone
$398 – $402
Actionable at spot ($403) — shallow dip into the zone
Stop Loss
$372.00
-7.0% · just below rising EMA20, ~1.2× ATR
Target 1
$448.00
+12.0% · measured move above 52W high
Target 2
$484.00
+21.0% stretch
Risk/Reward
1:1.71
to TP1 at $400 entry · 4–8 week swing
LevelPriceDistance from entryRationale
TP2 (stretch)$484.00+21.0%Trend extension / round number
TP1$448.00+12.0%Measured move above 52W high $422
52W High$422.11+5.5%Prior structure / breakout pivot
Entry (mid)$398 – $402Actionable zone at spot ($403)
EMA20$373.25-6.7%Dynamic support, trend spine
Stop$372.00-7.0%Just below EMA20 — thesis broken
EMA50$357.22-10.7%Deeper trend support

Thesis

Teradyne is the toll booth on AI test intensity, compounding earnings at a violent clip ($0.57 → $2.56 across four straight beats) with a clean, net-cash balance sheet. The only thing wrong with it today is the entry price — at $403 it is the most extended name in our set, and with a June 22 Nasdaq-100 inclusion likely to keep a bid under the tape, waiting for a deep pullback risks missing it entirely. We enter an actionable $398–$402 zone (a shallow dip from spot), with a stop just under the rising EMA20 at $372 and a measured-move target at $448, delivering R/R 1.71 at the $400 midpoint — above our 1.5 minimum at a within-1% entry, not a far pullback.

Catalysts

  • Four consecutive beats — actual vs estimate: $0.57/$0.543, $0.85/$0.791, $1.80/$1.383, $2.56/$2.117 (rising magnitude)
  • Q1 2026 record revenue $1.282B (+87% YoY), AI ~70% of sales, Semi Test > $1B
  • HBM/DRAM demand + Magnum 7 tester ramp driving Memory revenue
  • Long-term model reiterated: $6B revenue, $9.50–$11.00 EPS — runway for the multiple
  • Nasdaq-100 inclusion effective Jun 22, 2026 — passive index buying adds a near-term bid

Price Forecast (10 Days)

Probabilistic 80% zone over the next swing window: [$373 – $445], centered on the rising EMA20 floor and the 52W-high pivot ceiling.

Quantitative projection only. Exclude earnings windows (±3 days).

Invalidation

  • Daily close below $372 (under the rising EMA20) — trend structure broken, exit
  • A guidance cut or order-push signalling AI test-capex digestion
  • Broad semis risk-off — high beta (1.79) means TER leads the move down

Disclaimer

This analysis is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or solicitation to buy or sell any security.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Always conduct your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Data sourced from DailyTickers Gateway, Yahoo Finance, SEC EDGAR, and public market data. The price forecast is a quantitative model projection, not a guarantee. Accuracy is not guaranteed.

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