DailyTickers

TER — Teradyne, Inc.

NASDAQ · Semiconductors · 2026-06-14
$0.00 +0.00% Momentum Score 55 B ☪ Halal Score 50 B
$68.6B
Market Cap
18.0M
Volume
46.2x
Fwd P/E
1.79
Beta
$85.58 – $440.75
52W Range
0.12%
Div Yield
1.73
PEG
TER Chart
Click to enlarge

Verdict Express

B Neutral 87% confidence

Teradyne is the purest large-cap lever on the AI test-intensity cycle: every advanced GPU, HBM stack and custom ASIC needs more — and more complex — testing, and Teradyne owns that toll booth. EPS has accelerated violently from $0.57 to $2.56 across four straight beats, with revenue up +87% YoY in Q1 2026 and AI now ~70% of sales Yahoo Finance· avr 2026. The stock is now severely extended (+12.4% above its EMA20) and high-beta — it requires a disciplined pullback entry.

Why Buy

  • 4 consecutive beats; EPS ramp $0.57 → $2.56 with rising magnitude
  • Record revenue +87% YoY, AI ~70% of sales, HBM/Magnum 7 ramping
  • PEG 1.73 — a premium, but defensible against Q1's +87% YoY revenue surge
  • Pristine balance sheet: $246M cash vs only $82M debt, 28.8% ROE
  • Capital returned via buybacks + dividend; share count flat/declining

Why Avoid

  • Most extended name in the set — +12.4% above EMA20, ATR ~6.5%
  • High beta 1.79 — amplifies any broad risk-off move
  • Rich multiples (EV/EBITDA TTM 58.9x, fwd P/E 46.2x) leave no room for a miss
  • Test capex is cyclical — a digestion phase would compress estimates fast

Business Overview

Teradyne designs and sells the automated test equipment (ATE) that semiconductor makers use to validate chips before they ship. Its Semiconductor Test segment — the engine — crossed $1B in a single quarter for the first time, split between System-on-Chip ($882M) and Memory ($203M), the latter riding HBM and DRAM demand on the newly-ramped Magnum 7 tester Kalkine· avr 2026.

Two adjacencies round out the model: Product Test (~$80M) and a Robotics arm — Universal Robots and Mobile Industrial Robots — that just posted its fourth consecutive quarter of sequential growth (~$91M). The investment thesis is a toll-booth one: as AI accelerators, custom ASICs and stacked HBM grow more complex, test intensity (test cost per device) rises structurally, and Teradyne captures that with a high-margin razor-and-blade installed base. Management reiterated a long-term model of $6B revenue and $9.50–$11.00 EPS Yahoo Finance· avr 2026.

Fundamentals

MetricValueSignal
Revenue (TTM)$3.79BQ1 +87% YoY
EBITDA$1.16B30.7% margin
Gross Margin58.7%Strong
Operating Margin37.6%Excellent
Net Margin22.6%Healthy
ROE28.8%High
Cash$245.6MNet cash
Debt$82.4MDebt/MCap 0.12%
Fwd P/E46.2xPEG 1.73
EV/EBITDA (TTM)58.9xGrowth premium
Analyst Target$374.82Buy consensus

Capital Structure & Dilution

N/A
Shares Out.
,
Authorized
low
Dilution Risk

Technical Analysis

RSI (14)61.7
EMA 20$267.02
EMA 50$366.82
EMA 200$267.02
MACD15.300
Signal10.420
ATR (14)$28.61
Above EMA200 Above EMA50 MACD Bullish Extended +12.4% vs EMA20

Technical Setup

Textbook bull stack: EMA20 ($389.44) > EMA50 ($366.82) > EMA200 ($267.02), all rising, with price near the 52-week high ($440.75) Finviz· live. MACD (15.30) is above signal (10.42) and RSI 61.7 sits in a healthy, non-overbought momentum zone. At publication ($403.20) the stock was already ~8% above its EMA20; at the current $437.92, extension is +12.4% and ATR remains a wide $28.61 (~6.5%), making a chase entry poor risk. The original $398-$402 entry zone is now stale — a pullback toward $400-$410 is needed before this becomes actionable again.

Risk Analysis

Risk Profile: High

High-quality leader with clean balance sheet, but now severely overextended (+12.4% above EMA20) and near its 52W high ($440.75). At $437.92, R/R is 0.15 — effectively unactionable. The fundamental risk remains low; the timing/extension/valuation risk is now extreme Finviz· live.

Extension & Volatility

High
  • +12.4% above EMA20 — severely overextended, far beyond the healthy 0-5% range
  • Beta 1.79 amplifies any broad risk-off swing; spot $437.92 near 52W high $440.75
Probability
Impact
Don't chase — enter on a pullback toward EMA20 and size for the wide ATR

Valuation Premium

Medium
  • TTM EV/EBITDA 58.9x, fwd P/E 46.2x — priced for continued execution
  • Analyst mean target ($375) sits below spot
Probability
Impact
PEG 1.73 keeps the premium defensible while growth holds — a miss would re-rate fast

Test-Capex Cyclicality

Medium
  • ATE demand tracks chipmaker capex — historically cyclical
  • An AI-capex digestion phase would compress estimates quickly
Probability
Impact
Test intensity is structurally rising, but the order book can still air-pocket

Dilution & Balance Sheet

Low
  • Net cash, no ATM/S-3 raise, share count flat to declining
  • Capital returned via buybacks + growing dividend
Probability
Impact
No dilution overhang — a genuine quality balance sheet

Risk Synthesis

Teradyne's business risk is low — it is a profitable, net-cash, structurally-advantaged leader with zero dilution. What pushes the gauge to 7/10 is the extreme extension since publication: the stock has rallied +8.7% to $437.92, now +12.4% above EMA20 and near its 52W high ($440.75). R/R at spot is 0.15 — TP1 ($448) is only $10 above while the stop ($372) sits $66 below. With fwd PE 46.2x (PEG 1.73) and analyst targets well below spot, chasing here is asymmetrically bad. Wait for a pullback toward $400-$410.

Trade Idea

Entry Zone
$398.00
Stop Loss
$372.00
-6.5% risk
Target 1
$448.00
+12.6% upside
Target 2
$484.00
+21.6% upside
Risk/Reward
1.71

Thesis

Teradyne is the toll booth on AI test intensity, compounding earnings at a violent clip ($0.57 → $2.56 across four straight beats) with a clean, net-cash balance sheet. The fundamental thesis remains strong, but the entry price has moved against us — at $437.92 it is severely overextended, and with the June 22 Nasdaq-100 inclusion now imminent, the easy bid may already be priced in. The original $398-$402 entry zone, with a stop at $372 (below the then-EMA20, now at $389) and a measured-move target at $448, delivered R/R 1.71 at the $400 midpoint. At current levels, the trade is stale and requires a pullback to become actionable again.

Catalysts

  • Four consecutive beats — actual vs estimate: $0.57/$0.543, $0.85/$0.791, $1.80/$1.383, $2.56/$2.117 (rising magnitude)
  • Q1 2026 record revenue $1.282B (+87% YoY), AI ~70% of sales, Semi Test > $1B
  • HBM/DRAM demand + Magnum 7 tester ramp driving Memory revenue
  • Long-term model reiterated: $6B revenue, $9.50–$11.00 EPS — runway for the multiple

Invalidation

  • Daily close below $389 (EMA20) is a first warning; below $372 (original stop) confirms trend structure broken — exit
  • A guidance cut or order-push signalling AI test-capex digestion
  • Broad semis risk-off — high beta (1.79) means TER leads the move down

Disclaimer

This analysis is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or solicitation to buy or sell any security.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Always conduct your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Data sourced from DailyTickers Gateway, Yahoo Finance, SEC EDGAR, and public market data. Accuracy is not guaranteed.

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