Teradyne is the purest large-cap lever on the AI test-intensity cycle: every advanced GPU, HBM stack and custom ASIC needs more — and more complex — testing, and Teradyne owns that toll booth. EPS has accelerated violently from $0.57 to $2.56 across four straight beats, with revenue up +87% YoY in Q1 2026 and AI now ~70% of sales Yahoo Finance· avr 2026. The stock is the most extended name in our set (+8% above its EMA20) and high-beta — we trade it with a disciplined pullback entry.
Teradyne designs and sells the automated test equipment (ATE) that semiconductor makers use to validate chips before they ship. Its Semiconductor Test segment — the engine — crossed $1B in a single quarter for the first time, split between System-on-Chip ($882M) and Memory ($203M), the latter riding HBM and DRAM demand on the newly-ramped Magnum 7 tester Kalkine· avr 2026.
Two adjacencies round out the model: Product Test (~$80M) and a Robotics arm — Universal Robots and Mobile Industrial Robots — that just posted its fourth consecutive quarter of sequential growth (~$91M). The investment thesis is a toll-booth one: as AI accelerators, custom ASICs and stacked HBM grow more complex, test intensity (test cost per device) rises structurally, and Teradyne captures that with a high-margin razor-and-blade installed base. Management reiterated a long-term model of $6B revenue and $9.50–$11.00 EPS Yahoo Finance· avr 2026.
| Date | Headline | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| 12 juin 2026 | Teradyne to join the Nasdaq-100 in the June 22 quarterly rebalance | Positive |
| 13 juin 2026 | KLA, Amkor and Teradyne shares skyrocket on AI test-demand strength | Positive |
| 29 avr 2026 | Q1 2026: record revenue $1.282B (+87% YoY), non-GAAP EPS $2.56, AI ~70% of sales | Positive |
| 29 avr 2026 | Memory $203M on robust HBM/DRAM demand; Magnum 7 tester ramped successfully | Positive |
| 29 avr 2026 | Long-term model reiterated: $6B revenue, $9.50–$11.00 EPS | Neutral |
| Metric | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (TTM) | $3.79B | +87% YoY |
| EBITDA | $1.16B | 30.7% margin |
| Gross Margin | 58.7% | Strong |
| Operating Margin | 37.6% | Excellent |
| Net Margin | 22.6% | Healthy |
| ROE | 28.8% | High |
| Cash | $245.6M | Net cash |
| Debt | $82.4M | Debt/MCap 0.1% |
| Fwd P/E | 48.6x | PEG ~1.9 |
| EV/EBITDA (fwd) | ~36x | Growth premium |
| Analyst Target | $374.82 | Buy consensus |
The balance sheet is the standout: $246M cash against just $82M of debt makes Teradyne essentially net-cash, and the 0.1% debt/market-cap ratio is what keeps it sharia-compatible despite a momentum profile. Multiples are rich (fwd P/E ~49x, fwd EV/EBITDA ~36x), and a PEG near 1.9 is a real premium — defensible only while the 87% revenue growth rate holds. Note the analyst mean target ($374.82) sits below spot — the tape has front-run the sell side, a classic feature of a fast-re-rating leader.
Teradyne returns capital through buybacks and a growing dividend with a flat-to-declining share count, and carries no active ATM, S-3 equity shelf, mandatory convertible or stock-funded M&A. This is a textbook clean large-cap.
| RSI (14) | 57.5 |
| EMA 20 | $373.25 |
| EMA 50 | $357.22 |
| EMA 200 | $268.64 |
| MACD | 7.03 |
| Signal | 6.58 |
| ATR (14) | $22.75 (~5.6%) |
Textbook bull stack: EMA20 ($373.25) > EMA50 ($357.22) > EMA200 ($268.64), all rising, with price near the 52-week high ($422.11) Finviz· live. MACD (7.03) is above signal (6.58) and RSI ~58 sits in a healthy, non-overbought momentum zone — there is room to run. The catch: at $403.20 the stock is ~8% above its EMA20 and ATR is a wide $22.75 (~5.6%), so chasing the very top is poor risk. We enter into a shallow $398–$402 zone toward the rising trend, with a stop just under EMA20 — keeping the reward-to-risk above 1.5 at an actionable price.
High-quality, clean-balance-sheet leader — but extended, high-beta and richly valued. The fundamental risk is low; the timing/volatility risk is the real exposure.
Teradyne's business risk is low — it is a profitable, net-cash, structurally-advantaged leader with zero dilution. What lifts the gauge to 6/10 is purely tactical: the stock is extended +8% above its EMA20, carries a 1.79 beta and a ~5.6% ATR, and trades at a rich multiple (PEG ~1.9) that the sell side has not caught up to. Manage that with a disciplined entry zone near support and tight sizing rather than buying the very top.
| Level | Price | Distance from entry | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| TP2 (stretch) | $484.00 | +21.0% | Trend extension / round number |
| TP1 | $448.00 | +12.0% | Measured move above 52W high $422 |
| 52W High | $422.11 | +5.5% | Prior structure / breakout pivot |
| Entry (mid) | $398 – $402 | — | Actionable zone at spot ($403) |
| EMA20 | $373.25 | -6.7% | Dynamic support, trend spine |
| Stop | $372.00 | -7.0% | Just below EMA20 — thesis broken |
| EMA50 | $357.22 | -10.7% | Deeper trend support |
Teradyne is the toll booth on AI test intensity, compounding earnings at a violent clip ($0.57 → $2.56 across four straight beats) with a clean, net-cash balance sheet. The only thing wrong with it today is the entry price — at $403 it is the most extended name in our set, and with a June 22 Nasdaq-100 inclusion likely to keep a bid under the tape, waiting for a deep pullback risks missing it entirely. We enter an actionable $398–$402 zone (a shallow dip from spot), with a stop just under the rising EMA20 at $372 and a measured-move target at $448, delivering R/R 1.71 at the $400 midpoint — above our 1.5 minimum at a within-1% entry, not a far pullback.
Probabilistic 80% zone over the next swing window: [$373 – $445], centered on the rising EMA20 floor and the 52W-high pivot ceiling.
Quantitative projection only. Exclude earnings windows (±3 days).
This analysis is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or solicitation to buy or sell any security.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Always conduct your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Data sourced from DailyTickers Gateway, Yahoo Finance, SEC EDGAR, and public market data. The price forecast is a quantitative model projection, not a guarantee. Accuracy is not guaranteed.