TEX — Terex Corporation

NYSE · Industrials · 10 juin 2026
$66.82 +4.11% Momentum Score 76 B+
$7.63B
Market Cap
1.18M
Avg Volume
14.66x
Fwd P/E
1.54
Beta
$41.70 – $71.50
52W Range
4.6%
Short Interest
1.02%
Div Yield

Downgraded A+ → B+ (20 Jun 2026): At $66.82 spot, the stock is extended well above EMA20 and the risk/reward at current price is unfavorable. Trade levels recalibrated to a pullback entry near EMA20 ($61-$62) with stop below EMA200 at $56.80, yielding R/R ~2.1:1 to TP1 $71.50. Do not chase at current levels.

TEX Chart
Click to enlarge

Verdict Express

B+ Neutral Moderate confidence

Terex is a post-merger industrial at 14.7x forward PE with a Q1 earnings beat and a fresh MACD bullish crossover. Following the REV Group merger (closed Feb 2026), the company's share count rose ~70% (66.9M to 113.7M) — integration execution is the key swing factor. Aerial work platforms and materials processing equipment benefit from infrastructure spending. At current spot, the stock is extended above EMA20 — a pullback toward $61-$62 would offer an attractive entry with R/R ~2.1:1 to 52-week highs.

Why Buy

  • Forward PE 14.7x — fair valuation for post-merger industrial with synergy upside
  • Q1 beat +26% ($0.98 vs $0.78 est; includes $0.10 one-time tax benefit)
  • Fresh MACD bullish crossover — momentum catalyst
  • Dividend yield 1.02% adds income component
  • Infrastructure spending tailwind for equipment demand

Why Avoid

  • Extended above EMA20 at spot — unfavorable entry now
  • REV merger (Feb 2026) added ~70% more shares (66.9M to 113.7M) — integration risk is material
  • Operating margin negative (-3.9%), debt $2.75B post-merger, ROE only 3.2%
  • Higher beta (1.54) + cyclical exposure to construction spending + tariff headwinds

Business Overview

Terex Corporation is a global manufacturer of aerial work platforms (Genie brand — cherry pickers, boom lifts, scissor lifts), materials processing equipment (crushers, screens, conveyors), and mobile cranes. The company serves construction, infrastructure, utility, and mining end markets. Yahoo Finance· profile

In February 2026, Terex completed its merger with REV Group (specialty vehicles — ambulances, fire trucks, transit buses), creating a combined ~$8B revenue specialty equipment platform. The all-stock-and-cash deal increased Terex's share count by ~70% to 113.7M shares. Integration is in its early stages with $75M of run-rate synergies targeted by 2028. SEC EDGAR· 8-K Feb 2026

Terex benefits directly from the global infrastructure spending cycle, with its Genie aerial platform segment being a market leader in both rental fleet and direct sales channels. The company's materials processing division captures demand from aggregates production and recycling — both growth markets driven by urbanization and sustainability mandates.

Fundamentals

REV Group Merger — Share Count Impact

Share count increased ~70% (66.9M to 113.7M) following the Feb 2026 REV Group acquisition. This all-stock-and-cash deal significantly expanded the share base, which dilutes per-share metrics (EPS, book value) even as aggregate revenue and EBITDA grew. Investors should evaluate fundamentals on a per-share basis and monitor integration progress toward the $75M synergy target by 2028. SEC EDGAR· 8-K Feb 2026

MetricValueSignal
Revenue (TTM)$5.93B+41.1% YoY (incl. REV merger)
EBITDA$516MPositive
Gross Margin17.0%Weak
Operating Margin-3.9%Negative
Net Margin1.9%Thin
ROE3.2%Low
Cash$392M
Debt$2.75BDebt/MCap 36.0%
Fwd P/E14.66xFair
Analyst Target$76.05+13.8% upside

Technical Analysis

RSI (14)56.2
EMA 20$62.12
EMA 50$61.42
EMA 200$57.06
MACD0.984
Signal0.479
ATR (14)$2.87
Above EMA200 Above EMA50 MACD Bullish RSI Neutral

Technical Setup

Constructive setup with EMA20 ($62.12) > EMA50 ($61.42) > EMA200 ($57.06) — bullish alignment. RSI 56.2 in neutral zone with room to run. MACD bullish (0.984 above 0.479 signal) — sustained momentum. ATR $2.87 (4.3%) provides active trading range. Price 6.5% below 52-week high ($71.50).

Risk Analysis

5/10
Risk

Risk Profile: Moderate

Post-merger industrial with integration execution risk, negative operating margin (-3.9%), and $2.75B debt. Cyclical exposure and elevated beta (1.54) add volatility. Partially offset by Q1 earnings beat and infrastructure tailwinds.

REV Merger Integration

High
  • REV Group merger closed Feb 2, 2026 — share count rose ~70% (66.9M to 113.7M shares)
  • Operating margin negative (-3.9%) during integration; debt increased to $2.75B
  • $75M synergy target by 2028 — execution risk on cost savings
  • Q1 revenue +41% is primarily merger consolidation, not organic growth
Probability
Impact
Integration is early-stage (4 months in); margin normalization and synergy delivery are not guaranteed

Leverage & Margins

Medium
  • Debt $2.75B (36% of market cap) — elevated post-merger
  • Net margin thin at 1.9%, ROE only 3.2%
  • Q1 EPS $0.98 included $0.10 one-time tax benefit — core EPS ~$0.88
Probability
Impact
Margins should normalize as integration costs fade, but debt servicing constrains financial flexibility

Cyclical Exposure

Medium
  • Construction equipment demand follows economic cycles
  • Higher beta (1.54) amplifies market drawdowns
Probability
Impact
14.7x PE provides reasonable valuation floor; infrastructure spending provides demand visibility

Raw Materials

Low
  • Steel and component cost inflation pressure margins
  • Supply chain disruptions could delay deliveries
Probability
Impact
Pricing power demonstrated in Q1 beat — passing costs to customers

Trade Idea

Entry Zone
$61.00 – $62.00
Pullback to EMA20 zone
Stop Loss
$56.80
Below EMA200 · -7.6% risk
Target 1
$71.50
+16.1% upside
Target 2
$78.00
+26.7% stretch
Risk/Reward
2.1 : 1
At $61.50 mid-entry

Thesis

Terex delivered a Q1 EPS beat of 26% ($0.98 vs $0.78 est, though $0.10 from one-time tax benefits) at a forward PE of 14.7x. MACD is bullish (0.984 vs 0.479 signal), confirming momentum. The REV merger (Feb 2026) transforms Terex into a ~$8B revenue specialty equipment platform with $75M synergy potential by 2028. Infrastructure spending provides multi-year demand tailwinds, but integration execution and margin recovery remain the key risks to monitor.

Catalysts

  • Q1 2026 EPS $0.98 vs $0.78 est (+26%) — strong beat
  • Forward PE 14.7x — fair value with further upside if merger synergies materialize
  • MACD fresh bullish crossover — momentum ignition
  • Infrastructure spending driving aerial platform and crane demand

Invalidation

  • Daily close below EMA200 ($57.06) on volume > 2M — stop at $56.80
  • Construction spending contraction or tariff escalation compressing margins further
  • REV integration delays — synergy miss or further margin deterioration beyond Q2

Disclaimer

This analysis is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or solicitation to buy or sell any security.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Always conduct your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Data sourced from DailyTickers Gateway, Yahoo Finance, SEC EDGAR, and public market data. Accuracy is not guaranteed.

Verdict Business Fundamentals Technical Risks Trade Idea