TSM is the world's most important semiconductor company, controlling ~90% of advanced chip manufacturing. Four consecutive EPS beats, a forward PE of 22x with PEG 1.46, and perfect EMA alignment make this a high-conviction long. Price sits 7.5% below its 52-week high — a retest is the base case. Geopolitical risk is the key overhang.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) is the world's largest dedicated semiconductor foundry, manufacturing chips for Apple, NVIDIA, AMD, Qualcomm, and virtually every major tech company. TSMC controls approximately 60% of the global foundry market and an estimated 90% of advanced nodes (<7nm).
The AI boom has driven massive demand for its 3nm and 5nm processes, with new 2nm (N2) technology ramping in 2025-2026. TSMC raised its 2026 revenue growth guidance to 20-25%, reflecting sustained demand across AI accelerators, mobile SoCs, and HPC applications. The company is expanding globally with fabs in Arizona (US CHIPS Act), Japan, and Germany, though overseas production costs run 3-4x Taiwan equivalents.
| Segment | Revenue | % Total | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| Advanced Technology (<=7nm) | ~70% | 70% | Apple, NVIDIA, AMD, Qualcomm — AI accelerators, mobile SoCs, HPC |
| Mature/Specialty Nodes | ~30% | 30% | Automotive, IoT, industrial — legacy 28nm+ processes |
| Metric | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $2.29T | Mega-cap |
| Forward P/E | 22.1x | Reasonable |
| Trailing P/E | 38.0x | Premium |
| PEG Ratio | 1.46 | Fair Growth |
| P/B Ratio | 67.4x | Asset-light model |
| EV/Revenue | 3.86x | Moderate |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.55x | Attractive |
| Beta | 1.25 | Above-market vol |
| Dividend Yield | 0.87% | Growing payout |
| Short Interest | 0.58% | Minimal shorts |
| Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Est. | Surprise | Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | $3.49 | $3.33 | +4.7% | - |
| Q4 2025 | $3.14 | $2.98 | +5.4% | - |
| Q3 2025 | $2.92 | $2.63 | +11.0% | - |
| Q2 2025 | $2.47 | $2.31 | +6.9% | - |
4/4 consecutive beats — consistent outperformance driven by AI demand — Next: July 2026 (est.)
| RSI (14) | 54.5 |
| EMA 20 | $431.69 |
| EMA 50 | $411.05 |
| EMA 200 | $339.76 |
| MACD | 10.600 |
| Signal | 10.090 |
| ATR (14) | $18.63 |
Bullish structure with perfect EMA alignment: EMA20 ($431.69) > EMA50 ($411.05) > EMA200 ($339.76). Price is 2.1% above EMA20 — not extended. RSI 54.5 in neutral-bullish zone with room to run. MACD (10.60) above signal (10.09) confirms positive momentum. ATR $18.63 (4.2%) reflects normal semiconductor volatility. Price up 99.6% from 52-week low, 7.5% below 52-week high — room for upside continuation.
Dominant foundry position and consistent earnings provide strong fundamentals, but geopolitical risk (China-Taiwan) represents an existential tail risk unique to this company.
TSMC is the world's most critical semiconductor company with an unassailable moat in advanced chip manufacturing. Four consecutive earnings beats, guidance raised to 20-25% revenue growth, and a forward PE of 22x make this a compelling growth-at-reasonable-price setup. The stock is 7.5% below its 52-week high with perfect EMA alignment — a retest of $477 and push toward $510 is the base case as AI capex continues.
This analysis is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or solicitation to buy or sell any security.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Always conduct your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Data sourced from DailyTickers Gateway, Yahoo Finance, SEC EDGAR, and public market data. Accuracy is not guaranteed.