TeraWulf is no longer economically just a bitcoin miner: Q2 2026 HPC lease revenue was $31.9 million, 71% of total revenue, and capacity reached 102 MW in early July. The 401 MW, 20-year Anthropic lease carries roughly $19 billion of base contract value, with Google credit support reducing tenant-credit risk. That pivot is real. It is also unfinished and expensive. Q2 revenue was only $44.8 million, non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA was negative $18.3 million, another 336 MW was under construction, and management's $8-$10 million cost per IT MW implies billions of future deployment spend. The April base offering priced 47.4 million shares at $19 and included a 7.11 million-share option; the Q2 10-Q proves the option was exercised, bringing completed issuance to 54.51 million shares and $1.0357 billion gross. Converts, project notes and warrants remain material. Cash and restricted cash near $3.0 billion cannot be viewed apart from more than $5 billion of debt. The D grade reflects weak current earnings and dilution. The unchanged $16.29 plan is rejected: $17.4899 and $17.8899 offer only 0.78R and 1.04R against the $14.75 stop.
TeraWulf operates power-secured campuses that now earn primarily HPC lease revenue, alongside residual bitcoin-mining economics. Revenue depends on billable IT megawatts, contractual rent and, for mining, hash production and bitcoin prices.
The AI channel is direct: TeraWulf develops powered shells and cooling, tenants install or contract compute, and rent starts as capacity is delivered. The 401 MW Anthropic agreement, supported by Google credit, can convert power access into long-duration datacenter cash flow from 2027 onward.
The model breaks if construction misses delivery dates, cost per MW exceeds plan, tenant support weakens or capital markets close before rent starts. Mining exposure adds commodity volatility, while converts, project debt, warrants and recent equity issuance divide future project economics among multiple claims. Investors must therefore compare delivered, billable capacity with construction spending and all equity-linked claims before capitalizing the full lease value into today's common shares.
| Segment | Revenue | Description |
|---|---|---|
| HPC leasing | Long-term rent from delivered AI datacenter capacity. | |
| Bitcoin mining | Self-mining exposure to hash price, uptime and energy cost. |
| Metric | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 revenue | $44.8M | HPC was 71% |
| Q2 HPC lease revenue | $31.9M | New primary engine |
| Q2 adjusted EBITDA | ($18.3M) | Non-GAAP negative |
| Revenue capacity | 102 MW | Early July 2026 |
| EV/Revenue | ~65.7x trailing | August 28, 2026 basis; 65.7x versus APLD 21.9x and CORZ 18.7x trailing EV/revenue |
| Price/Sales | ~49.0x trailing | August 28, 2026 basis; 49.0x versus CIFR 35.5x and CORZ 12.5x trailing sales |
| Revenue (TTM) | $165.2M | -6.0% YoY |
| Gross Margin | 69.3% | Reported |
| Operating Margin | -307.0% | Loss-making |
| Net Margin | N/A | Not reliably available |
| ROE | -1211.8% | Capital efficiency |
| Cash | $2.62B | Liquidity; sector accounting may limit direct debt netting |
| Debt | $5.24B | Balance-sheet claim |
| Intrinsic-value model | N/A | Fail-closed: insufficient or non-economic output |
| Value / quality panel | 0 positive / 5 negative / 0 neutral | bearish / confidence 59 |
| Fundamental grade audit | 31/100 (D) | base +55, growth -7, grossMargin +4, operatingMargin -6, earningsGrowth +0, roe +0, balanceSheet +0, qualityBoard -6, capitalStructure -9, controls +0; capped score 31/100 |
| Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Est. | Surprise | Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3Q2025 | $-0.04 | $-0.05 | 20.0% | - |
| 4Q2025 | $-0.27 | $-0.16 | -65.7% | - |
| 1Q2026 | $-0.20 | $-0.19 | -4.0% | - |
| 2Q2026 | $-0.33 | $-0.27 | -23.6% | - |
Q2 2026 revenue was $44.8M, with $31.9M from HPC leasing, or 71% of the total. Non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA was negative $18.3M. Revenue capacity was 81 MW at June 30 and 102 MW in early July, while 336 MW remained under construction. Management targets 250-500 MW of incremental annual contracting and estimates construction at $8M-$10M per IT MW. TeraWulf supplied contracting and construction targets but no formal consolidated revenue or EBITDA guidance. The caveat is timing: the large Anthropic build begins initial delivery in the second half of 2027 and reaches full delivery in early 2028, leaving a long funding period before rent. No confirmed TeraWulf next-earnings date was listed by the issuer after the source check. — Next: Not confirmed
No structured transaction table was captured.
TeraWulf's pivot has been funded through common equity, converts, warrants and project debt. The April final 424B5 priced 47.4M shares at $19 and described a 7.11M-share option; the Q2 10-Q proves that 54.51M shares were ultimately issued for $1.0357B gross, so the option was exercised and must be included. Preliminary prospectuses are the same program, not extra issuance. Against roughly 499.0M basic shares, initial conversion rates imply about 190.8M gross convertible shares across the 2030, 2031 and 2032 notes, and approximately 73.6M Google warrants are additional claims. The resulting 763.4M minimum observable basic-plus-quantified-claims sensitivity excludes other warrants and awards and is not a fully diluted forecast. Capped calls may reduce economic dilution but do not reduce the legal claims; project notes remain debt and restricted construction cash is not excess parent liquidity.
7 decision-relevant primary filing(s) are displayed with accession-specific findings. Grade D measures fundamentals; trade state rejected measures timing and is evaluated separately.
| Date | Form | Accession | What the filing changes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | 10-Q | 0001083301-26-000166 | The June Form 10-Q reports TeraWulf's quarterly balance sheet, operating capacity, debt and warrant exposure and proves completion of 54.51M April offering shares for $1.0357B gross, including exercise of the 7.11M-share option. |
| 2026-02-27 | 10-K | 0001083301-26-000031 | The 2025 Form 10-K establishes the annual mining, infrastructure, controls and capital baseline; it predates the April common offering and the later Anthropic lease economics. |
| 2026-08-05 | 8-K | 0001083301-26-000162 | The August earnings Form 8-K furnishes Q2 revenue of $44.8M and the HPC leasing update through exhibits; it is a current report, not an equity issuance filing. |
| 2026-04-16 | 424B5 | 0001104659-26-044031 | The final April 424B5 prices 47.4M common shares at $19 for $900.6M gross, states expected delivery and describes a 7.11M-share option. The later Q2 10-Q proves 54.51M shares and $1.0357B gross, confirming exercise of that option. |
| 2026-04-15 | 424B5 | 0001104659-26-043376 | This April 424B5 contains offering terms preceding final completion; use it for security mechanics, not as an additional share sale on top of the definitive completed offering. |
| 2026-04-14 | 424B5 | 0001104659-26-043250 | This preliminary 424B5 launched the common offering and described proposed terms; it does not support double-counting proceeds or shares later finalized in accession 0001104659-26-044031. This classification controls the editorial conclusion. |
| 2026-04-14 | S-3ASR | 0001104659-26-043178 | The April S-3ASR establishes automatic shelf capacity used for the common offering; it is not execution proof. The final terms and later Q2 10-Q together establish 54.51M completed shares for $1.0357B gross. |
WULF point-in-time short-interest context only; no acceleration claim without a comparable dated series.
Unusual Activity: No unusual activity confirmed
| RSI (14) | 47.0 |
| EMA 20 | $16.90 |
| EMA 50 | $18.80 |
| EMA 200 | $17.58 |
| MACD | -0.969 |
| Signal | -1.129 |
| ATR (14) | $1.26 |
| Wyckoff | Transitional |
WULF is rejected at the unchanged $16.29 reference: the August 19 stop at $14.75 reaches only 0.78R at the August 21 pivot of $17.4899 and 1.04R at the August 17 pivot of $17.8899. The quote was $16.22 at 2026-08-28T13:45:00Z and indicators contain no bars after August 27. No activation, order or sizing is permitted; construction or financing news requires a fresh structure. Daily indicators and pivots run only through the 2026-08-27 close.
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Reference close | 2026-08-27 | Daily structure is point-in-time controlled |
| Quote snapshot | 2026-08-28T13:45:00Z | Exact timestamp; not represented as a publication-time live quote |
| Opening observation | 2026-08-28T13:30:00Z | Regular-session range used for the single activation level |
Regime: risk-on
TeraWulf monetizes power twice: directly through bitcoin mining and increasingly through AI leases. Grid availability and datacenter credit support drive HPC value; bitcoin hash price drives the residual mining business; credit spreads determine whether the 2027-2028 build preserves equity returns.
The contracted HPC pivot is credible, but present revenue and EBITDA do not yet carry the construction stack. Share issuance, warrants, converts and project debt make per-share outcomes highly sensitive to cost and schedule.
Contract value is not enterprise value. Retail war-room: the $16.29/$14.75 plan is rejected because neither dated target reaches acceptable reward, so sizing is zero and no limit order may be staged. Gap risk, liquidity, spread and slippage only worsen the payoff; never chase an Anthropic headline. Construction or convertible events require a new regular-session structure.
WULF: directional flow remains unscored because no dated, inspectable transaction-level source was captured.
Reject the unchanged $16.29 entry because the dated $14.75 stop produces only 0.78R to $17.4899 and 1.04R to $17.8899. Negative EBITDA, the 2027 construction bridge, warrants and converts require better compensation, not looser risk. No order or sizing is allowed until a fresh regular-session structure is reviewed after any construction or financing event.
Contract value is not enterprise value. Current trade state: rejected.
This analysis is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or solicitation to buy or sell any security.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Always conduct your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Data comes from point-in-time market snapshots, company filings, Yahoo Finance, SEC EDGAR, and public market data. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
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