DailyTickers

WULF — TeraWulf Inc.

NASDAQ · Digital Infrastructure · 2026-06-21
$13.75 -8.10% BTC MINING + HPC/AI CLEAN ENERGY 28% SHORT INTEREST BETA 4.3 Score 50 B
$5.83B
Market Cap
4.30
Beta
$25.40
Analyst Target
WULF Chart
Click to enlarge

Verdict Express

B Neutral Moderate

TeraWulf is pivoting from pure-play Bitcoin mining to an AI/HPC data center infrastructure company. With 141 employees and ~$168M in annual revenue, WULF operates clean-energy-powered facilities (primarily nuclear via Lake Mariner in NY). The company holds $3.3B in cash but carries $5.2B in total debt. At $13.75, the stock sits 46% below the $25.40 analyst consensus target, but with a beta of 4.3 and 28% short interest, this is an extremely volatile and contested name. The pivot to HPC/AI hosting is the thesis — execution risk is the question.

Why Buy

  • HPC/AI pivot — nuclear-powered data centers are a scarce asset for hyperscalers
  • Analyst consensus $25.40 — Strong Buy rating, +85% upside
  • 78.3% institutional ownership — major funds are accumulating
  • Clean energy moat — nuclear + zero-carbon power cost advantage

Why Avoid

  • Negative EBITDA (-$80.8M) — still burning cash despite revenue
  • $5.2B total debt vs $3.3B cash — leveraged balance sheet
  • 28% short interest — bearish institutional conviction
  • Beta 4.3 — extreme BTC correlation, amplifies drawdowns

Business Overview

See article for business overview.

Segments

SegmentRevenue% TotalDescription
Bitcoin MiningSelf-mining BTC using ASIC hardware at Lake Mariner (NY) & Nautilus (PA)ActiveCore revenue driver, ~$168M TTM
HPC/AI HostingPivoting to GPU-based AI/HPC data center colocation for hyperscalersRampingHigher-margin, long-term contracts, diversifies away from BTC
Infrastructure200+ MW nuclear-powered capacity at Lake Mariner with expansion plansExpandingClean energy moat, cost advantage ~$0.02/kWh

Recent News

HPC/AI data center expansion at Lake Mariner progressing Mar 2026 Management continues to convert Bitcoin mining capacity to GPU-based AI hosting, targeting hyperscaler contracts. Nuclear-powered capa neutral
Q4 2025 EPS miss: -$0.265 vs -$0.16 estimate Feb 2026 Wider-than-expected loss driven by infrastructure investment costs and BTC price volatility. Revenue met expectations but bottom line disappointed neutral
Bitcoin halving impact stabilizing — hash rate economics normalizing Jan 2026 Post-halving mining economics have normalized. TeraWulf’s low-cost nuclear power provides a significant cost advantage vs. neutral
Analyst upgrades: consensus Strong Buy, mean target $25.40 Feb 2026 Multiple analysts cite the HPC/AI pivot and clean energy infrastructure as undervalued catalysts. Price targets range from $18 to $3 neutral

Fundamentals

MetricValueSignal
Revenue (TTM)$168.5M+2.4% YoY growth — slow but stable
Gross Margin50.9%Strong for mining — clean energy cost advantage
Operating Margin-210.5%Deep negative — heavy infrastructure CapEx
EBITDA-$80.8MCash burn from expansion investments
ROE-343.7%Negative equity returns — growth phase
ROA-2.6%Below breakeven on assets
Total Cash$3.27BStrong liquidity position
Total Debt$5.20BHighly leveraged — debt/cash ~1.6x
EV/Revenue46.1xPremium valuation priced for HPC/AI pivot
Price/Book41.2xExtremely elevated — book value $0.33/share
Analyst Target$25.40Strong Buy consensus (+85% upside)
Q1 2025-$0.160-$0.087
Q2 2025-$0.028-$0.058
Q3 2025-$0.038-$0.048
Q4 2025-$0.265-$0.160

Insiders & Institutions

N/A
Insider Own.
78.3%
Institution Own.

Capital Structure & Dilution

424.1M
Shares Out.
N/A
Authorized
high
Dilution Risk

Options / Derivatives

11,558
Call OI
N/A
Put OI
N/A
C/P Ratio
N/A
Max Pain
N/A
IV Mean

Technical Analysis

RSI (14)40.0
EMA 20$2.00
EMA 50$12.83
EMA 200$9.47
MACD0.000
Signal26.700
ATR (14)$6.70

Macro Context

IndicatorValueSignal
BTC-USDVery High (implicit via beta 4.3)Primary driver — WULF amplifies BTC moves by ~4x
SPY (S&P 500)0.32Moderate — follows broad risk sentiment
NASDAQ0.34Moderate — tech growth correlation
Russell 20000.34Small-cap risk appetite
GLD (Gold)-0.02Negligible — no safe-haven correlation
TLT (Bonds)0.04Negligible — rate-insensitive
USO (Oil)0.09Low — energy cost marginal (nuclear)

Regime: risk-off

Risk Analysis

Risk Profile: High

Extreme beta (4.3), high leverage ($5.2B debt), negative EBITDA, and 28% short interest combine to make WULF one of the highest-risk equities in the BTC mining sector. The HPC/AI pivot is the key de-risking catalyst but remains in early execution.

BTC Price Correlation

Critical
  • Beta 4.3 means WULF amplifies BTC moves by ~4x
  • A 20% BTC crash could send WULF down 50-80%
  • Post-halving mining economics are BTC-price dependent
Probability
Impact
Existential if BTC enters prolonged bear market

Leverage & Debt

High
  • $5.2B total debt vs $3.3B cash — net debt $1.9B
  • Negative EBITDA means debt service from cash reserves
  • Debt covenants could trigger if metrics deteriorate
Probability
Impact
Manageable with $3.3B cash but requires revenue growth

Short Interest Pressure

High
  • 28% of float shorted — 95.6M shares
  • Shorts have been profitable in the recent decline
  • Could become squeeze fuel on positive catalyst
Probability
Impact
Double-edged sword — pressure downside but squeeze upside

HPC/AI Execution Risk

Medium
  • Pivot from mining to HPC requires different expertise
  • Competition from CORZ (CoreWeave deal) and IREN
  • Infrastructure build-out timeline uncertainty
Probability
Impact
Nuclear power advantage mitigates but doesn’t eliminate

Risk Synthesis

TeraWulf trades at a premium to book value (41x) because the market is pricing in the HPC/AI pivot potential, not current mining economics. The $25.40 analyst target assumes successful execution. The current $13.75 price reflects the market’s uncertainty about that execution, combined with BTC weakness and general tech/crypto selloff pressure. The 28% short interest signals that a significant portion of institutional investors believe the pivot thesis is overpriced at current levels.

Social Radar

30 msgs/48h
24K watchers, mixed sentiment
Neutral
24K watchers, mixed sentiment
Occasional mentions
BTC mining thesis discussed
Moderate
BTC mining thesis discussed
$WULF cashtag active
FinTwit mining sector coverage
Moderate
FinTwit mining sector coverage
Multiple coverage
Target $25.40 consensus
Strong Buy
Target $25.40 consensus

Trade Idea

TP2-HIT — Price 28.78 >= TP2 20 (auto-refresh 2026-06-23)
Entry Zone
$12.50
Stop Loss
$10.50
-16.0% risk
Target 1
$16.77
+34.2% upside
Target 2
$20.00
+60.0% upside
Risk/Reward
1 : 2.8

Catalysts

  • BTC breakout above $72K with volume confirmation
  • HPC/AI hosting contract announcement with hyperscaler
  • Short interest declining below 25% (covering signal)
  • Q1 2026 earnings beat with positive EBITDA guidance
  • Catalysts: HPC contract announcements, Q1 2026 earnings, BTC price action

Invalidation

  • Horizon: Swing 4–8 weeks, targeting BTC halving anniversary rally seasonality
  • Catalysts: HPC contract announcements, Q1 2026 earnings, BTC price action
  • Sizing: Max 1–2% of portfolio — extreme volatility (beta 4.3, ATR 6.7%/day)
  • Scaled entry: 50% at $12.75–$13.00 / 50% if pullback to $11.00–$11.50

Disclaimer

This analysis is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or solicitation to buy or sell any security.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Always conduct your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Data sourced from real-time market data, Yahoo Finance, SEC EDGAR, and public market data. Accuracy is not guaranteed.

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