Wall Street takes a holiday, but the world doesn’t stop. Thursday’s relief rally pushed the S&P 500 up +0.8% to 5,892 — snapping a nine-Thursday losing streak. But the March jobs report just landed on a closed market, gold surges past $4,769 (+2%), and Brent crude pushes above $112 as the Strait of Hormuz blockade enters week six. Nikkei rises +1.1% while Hong Kong, Sydney and most of Asia-Pacific observe the holiday. The jobs number will set the tone for Monday’s open.
Thursday April 2 close — US markets closed today (Good Friday)
A volatile 4-day week dominated by Iran war developments, Liberation Day anniversary, and surprisingly strong economic data.
| Index | Thu Close | Week Change | From ATH | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 5,892.42 | +1.5% | -9.1% | Average |
| Nasdaq Comp. | 18,731.49 | +2.1% | -10.8% | Above Avg |
| Dow Jones | 42,856.28 | +0.8% | -7.2% | Average |
| Russell 2000 (IWM) | 251.29 | +2.3% | -5.1% | High |
| Gold | $4,769 | +4.2% | -10.2% from $5,312 | — |
| Brent Crude | ~$112 | +6.8% | — | — |
| BTC | $66,558 | -1.8% | -39% from ATH | Below Avg |
| VIX | 19.42 | -6.2 pts from Mon high | — | — |
Relief rally extends for a third day. The S&P snaps its historic nine-Thursday losing streak.
| Index / ETF | Close | Change | Volume | 52W Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (SPY) | 5,892.42 | +0.80% (+47 pts) | Average | 4,958 – 6,489 |
| Nasdaq Comp. (QQQ) | 18,731.49 | +1.20% (+221 pts) | Above Avg | 15,230 – 20,990 |
| Dow Jones (DIA) | 42,856.28 | +0.39% (+168 pts) | Average | 38,400 – 46,200 |
| Russell 2000 (IWM) | 251.29 | +0.69% (+1.73) | High ($1.7B inflows Apr 1) | 193 – 268 |
Mixed session. European markets close early for Easter, most shut Friday. Choppy action amid Hormuz uncertainty and oil swings.
| Index | Close | Change | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAX 40 | 23,160 | -0.60% | Reversed Tue’s +2.73% rally |
| CAC 40 | 8,185 | -0.24% | Opened -1.3%, recovered |
| FTSE 100 | 10,436 | +0.70% | Energy names buoy London |
| Euro Stoxx 50 | 5,320 | -0.40% | Opened -1.93%, recovered most |
Europe Holiday Schedule: Most European exchanges are closed Friday (Good Friday) and Monday (Easter Monday). London, Frankfurt, Paris, Amsterdam, Zurich — all shut both days. Trading resumes Tuesday April 7.
Most Asian markets closed for Good Friday. Japan and mainland China trading. A quiet end to a volatile week.
| Index | Level | Change | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nikkei 225 | 53,039 | +1.10% | Open — peace hopes drive rally |
| Shanghai Comp. | 3,900 | -0.50% | Open — mixed on tariff uncertainty |
| KOSPI | 5,375 | +2.70% | Open — extending Tue’s circuit-breaker surge |
| Hang Seng | — | — | Closed (Good Friday) |
| ASX 200 | — | — | Closed (Good Friday) |
Flat session. Bitcoin trades sideways near $66.5K as traditional markets take a holiday. Low volatility, low volume.
| Asset | Price | 24h | 7d | Key Level |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin (BTC) | $66,558 | -0.07% | -1.8% | Support: $65K | Resistance: $68.5K |
| Ethereum (ETH) | $2,057 | +0.35% | -2.1% | Support: $1,950 | Resistance: $2,150 |
| Solana (SOL) | $79.31 | +0.09% | -3.5% | Support: $75 | Resistance: $85 |
| XRP | $1.32 | +0.30% | -1.2% | Support: $1.25 | Resistance: $1.40 |
Operation Epic Fury enters its sixth week. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively blocked, keeping ~500M barrels of petroleum products off global markets. Brent crude above $112. Trump signaled the conflict could end "in 2-3 weeks" during Wednesday’s address, triggering a massive rally in Asian markets. However, the IRGC announced targeting of US companies operating in the region, and Iran’s new leadership (post-Khamenei) shows no signs of capitulation. Market impact: Energy inflation is the primary macro risk. OECD forecasts G20 inflation at 4% for 2026 with US potentially exceeding 4.2%. Over $8 trillion in US money market funds as a hedge against volatility.
April 2 marked the one-year anniversary of Trump’s "Liberation Day" reciprocal tariffs. The baseline 10% tariff remains in effect after the SCOTUS ruling in February found broader IEEPA-based tariffs unconstitutional. Targeted sector tariffs (steel, aluminum, EVs, semiconductors) remain above 25%. EU and China continue retaliatory measures. Market impact: Import-sensitive sectors under pressure, but domestic manufacturing benefiting (ISM at 52.7).
Nearly three dozen countries are exerting diplomatic pressure to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia has pivoted to land-based oil export pipelines (Red Sea terminals). Dubai and Qatar introduced emergency liquidity packages. If diplomatic channels succeed, oil could drop 20-30% rapidly — a massive deflationary impulse. Market impact: This is the most important variable for markets right now. A Hormuz reopening would trigger a massive risk-on rally. Failure to resolve means $120+ Brent and potential recession risk.
| Commodity | Price | Day Change | Week | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold (XAU) | $4,769 | +1.97% | +4.2% | Safe-haven demand, USD weakness |
| Silver (XAG) | $75.35 | +1.2% | +3.8% | Gold/Silver ratio 63.5 |
| Brent Crude | ~$112 | +6.7% | +6.8% | Hormuz blockade, supply shock |
| WTI Crude | ~$106 | +5.8% | +6.2% | US strategic reserves discussion |
| Natural Gas | $3.85 | -0.8% | +2.1% | Weather normalization |
Bottom line: The macro data is actually good (ISM, ADP, retail sales all beat), which is why the relief rally has legs. But the geopolitical overlay — specifically oil at $112 — is an inflation tax that will eventually hit corporate margins and consumer spending. The market is betting on de-escalation. If that bet is wrong, we’re looking at $120+ Brent and a potential growth scare. If it’s right, expect a violent rally as $8T in cash comes off the sidelines.
Today is a textbook example of gap risk. The March jobs report (Non-Farm Payrolls) was released at 8:30 AM ET — but US equity markets are closed for Good Friday. Bond markets close at noon. This means:
Key Insight: Historical data shows that when NFP releases on market holidays (rare but it happens), Monday’s open gap is typically 1.5–2x the normal NFP-day reaction. The market overreacts because there’s no continuous price discovery to absorb the information gradually.
Three swing setups for next week. Execute only after Monday’s open confirms direction.
Small cap rotation thesis. $1.7B single-day inflow, valuations at 30-year discount to large caps. ISM Mfg expansion favors domestic small caps. If de-escalation continues, IWM leads.
R:R — 1:1.5 (TP1) / 1:2.4 (TP2) | Catalyst: Great Rotation, ISM data, $8T cash reallocation
Gold recovering from March correction. Geopolitical uncertainty + weaker dollar + real rates declining = bullish setup. Trading above $4,769 with momentum. Target recovery toward $5,000+ previous ATH zone.
R:R — 1:1.2 (TP1) / 1:2.2 (TP2) | Catalyst: Safe haven, USD weakness, inflation hedge
Insurance against a hot CPI (Apr 9) or Iran escalation over the long weekend. NFP gap risk adds uncertainty. Buy SPY 580/570 put spread for defined-risk downside protection. Cost: ~$3.50 per contract.
R:R — 1:1.86 | Catalyst: CPI Apr 9, Iran escalation risk, NFP gap risk
Market Data: Yahoo Finance, Binance API (crypto), S&P Global, Nasdaq, NYSE, CBOE (VIX)
Economic Data: Bureau of Labor Statistics (NFP, CPI), ISM (Manufacturing PMI), ADP Research Institute, Census Bureau (Retail Sales)
Geopolitics: PRS Group, FDD Overnight Brief, Reuters, Bloomberg, Deloitte Middle East Economic Bulletin
Commodities: GoldPrice.org, Fortune Commodities, NYMEX, ICE Futures
Sentiment: CNN Fear & Greed Index, StockTwits, Reddit r/wallstreetbets, CBOE Put/Call ratio
Disclaimer: This briefing is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments. Past performance is not indicative of future results. All trading involves risk of loss. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. Data accurate as of April 3, 2026, 06:00 UTC.