The March jobs report crushed expectations (+178K vs +60K) while US equity markets sat dark for Good Friday. Brent crude surged past $112 as Iran's missile salvo continued. Gold holds $4,677. The VIX eased to 23.87 but gap risk looms large for Monday's open. Full weekly recap and April 7 preview inside.
Last trading session: Thursday April 2. US & European markets closed Good Friday/Easter.
The +178K print is a massive rebound from February's revised -133K. Healthcare alone added +76.4K (including 35K strikers returning). The 3-month average is still modest at +68K, but this report kills the recession narrative that was building after February's shocking negative print. The catch: wages at +3.5% YoY alongside oil at $112 means inflation pressures are real. The Fed's March CPI report (due April 9) becomes the pivotal data point. Strong jobs + strong inflation = no rate cuts in sight.
| Month | Original | Revised | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | +126K | +160K | +34K |
| February 2026 | -92K | -133K | -41K |
| March 2026 | +178K | — | — |
Net revision for Jan+Feb: -7K. 3-month average: +68K NFP.
This was a shortened trading week — US markets closed Thursday after regular hours and stayed shut for Good Friday. The dominant themes were the Iran war entering its 5th week, crude oil's relentless climb past $112, and Liberation Day tariff aftershocks. The S&P 500 fell ~1.2% on Thursday, Nasdaq lost 2.1%, while defensive sectors and energy continued to outperform.
| Index / Asset | Last Close | Thu Apr 2 | Week Est. |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 5,892.45 | -1.20% | ~-2.5% |
| Nasdaq | 18,112.34 | -2.10% | ~-3.1% |
| Dow Jones | 41,228.18 | -0.81% | ~-1.8% |
| Russell 2000 | IWM $251.29 | -0.95% | ~-2.2% |
| DAX (Germany) | 23,168.08 | -0.56% | ~-1.5% |
| CAC 40 (France) | 7,962.39 | -0.24% | ~-1.0% |
| FTSE 100 (UK) | 10,436.29 | +0.69% | ~+0.3% |
| Nikkei 225 | 53,123.49 | +1.26% | ~+1.5% |
| KOSPI | 5,377.30 | +2.74% | ~+3.8% |
| Brent Crude | $112.42 | +7.8% | ~+10% |
| Gold | $4,677 | +0.04% | ~+2% |
| BTC | $66,921 | +0.30% | ~+0.5% |
Thursday's session was the last before the 3-day Easter weekend. The sell-off was broad-based, led by tech and semis. The S&P 500 closed at 5,892.45 (-1.20%), the Nasdaq plunged -2.10% to 18,112, and the Dow lost -0.81% to 41,228. Volume was elevated as traders adjusted positions ahead of the holiday — and the looming NFP release on a closed market.
European markets posted a mixed session on Thursday ahead of the long Easter weekend. The FTSE 100 outperformed at 10,436.29 (+0.69%), buoyed by energy heavyweights Shell and BP as oil surged. The DAX fell -0.56% to 23,168 on industrial weakness. The CAC 40 dipped -0.24% to 7,962. European markets are closed until Tuesday April 7 (Easter Monday holiday).
| Index | Close | Change |
|---|---|---|
| FTSE 100 🇬🇧 | 10,436.29 | +0.69% |
| DAX 🇩🇪 | 23,168.08 | -0.56% |
| CAC 40 🇫🇷 | 7,962.39 | -0.24% |
| STOXX 600 | — | Closed |
Asian markets that were open on Friday traded with cautious optimism. The Nikkei 225 rose +1.26% to 53,123 as Japan continues to benefit from yen weakness and BOJ policy normalization. KOSPI surged +2.74% to 5,377 on Samsung-led tech recovery and peace talk hopes. Shanghai slipped -1.00% to 3,880. Hong Kong and Australia were closed for Good Friday.
| Index | Close | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Nikkei 225 🇯🇵 | 53,123.49 | +1.26% |
| KOSPI 🇰🇷 | 5,377.30 | +2.74% |
| Shanghai Composite 🇨🇳 | 3,880.10 | -1.00% |
| Shenzhen Component 🇨🇳 | 13,352.90 | -0.99% |
| Hang Seng 🇭🇰 | — | Closed (holiday) |
| ASX 200 🇦🇺 | — | Closed (holiday) |
Crypto traded sideways over the Easter weekend with muted volatility. Bitcoin holds at $66,921 (+0.30%), still range-bound between $65K support and $68K resistance. ETH dipped slightly to $2,053 (-0.34%). SOL outperformed at $80.21 (+0.93%) on memecoin activity. The big question: will Monday's NFP gap-up in equities lift crypto, or will risk-off from oil at $112 dominate?
| Coin | Price | 24h | 7d |
|---|---|---|---|
| ₿ Bitcoin | $66,921 | +0.30% | +0.5% |
| Ξ Ethereum | $2,053.56 | -0.34% | -1.2% |
| ◎ Solana | $80.21 | +0.93% | -0.8% |
| ✕ XRP | $1.3172 | -0.37% | -2.1% |
Crude oil was the story of the week. Brent surged to $112.42 and WTI settled at $111.54 — the highest levels since the war began outside of the initial $141 spot spike. Iran launched a new missile salvo at Israel on Thursday, and Trump warned that the US has "not yet begun destroying what is left" in Iran. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively blocked, with tankers routing around Oman's coast. The OPEC+ emergency meeting on April 7 is the next catalyst: if they announce additional supply, oil may pull back to $105; if they maintain current quotas, $120+ is realistic.
Gold held at $4,677/oz despite profit-taking from the recent $4,769 highs. Central bank buying continues to provide a floor. The war premium is estimated at $400-500/oz. Silver tracked gold at ~$32.50. Mining stocks (NEM, GOLD) outperformed on margin expansion. The setup remains bullish as long as Iran conflict persists and real yields stay negative.
The US-Israeli military campaign against Iran is now in its 5th week. Key developments this week: Iran launched a new missile salvo at Israel on April 3. Trump warned that the US has "not yet begun destroying what is left." US strikes intensified over April 1-2, targeting central weapons facilities in Tehran. Iranian missile fire has steadily decreased as manufacturing capacity degrades. The Strait of Hormuz remains blocked — oil tankers are hugging the Omani coastline to avoid Iran's checkpoint. Binary risk: ceasefire talks vs full escalation. Defense stocks (RTX, LMT, NOC) remain direct beneficiaries.
~20% of global oil transits through Hormuz. Iran's blockade continues. WTI at $111.54, Brent at $112.42. OPEC is unable to fully compensate lost barrels. Global supply chain disruption persists with shipping rates and insurance premiums at record levels. The OPEC+ emergency meeting on April 7 is the next major catalyst. If supply relief fails, Brent targets $120-130 range. IEA strategic reserve release remains on the table.
Trump's reciprocal tariffs took effect April 2. The immediate market reaction was a -1.2% sell-off on the S&P 500. Section 122 tariffs of 15% on all imports remain in force since the Supreme Court struck down IEEPA tariffs. Combined with oil-driven inflation, the stagflation scenario is becoming consensus. Watch for retaliatory tariffs from the EU and China in the coming weeks. March CPI on April 9 will show the first full month of tariff impact.
A gap occurs when a stock or index opens at a significantly different price than its previous close, with no trading in between. Gaps can happen overnight (between close and next open) or over weekends/holidays when markets are shut but events continue unfolding.
Here's why: the March NFP report (+178K) was released on Good Friday when US equity markets were closed. Normally, NFP triggers immediate price action. Instead, the reaction is "stored" and will be unleashed at Monday's open. But it's not just NFP:
Oil at $112 with OPEC+ meeting Monday. If OPEC maintains quotas, Brent targets $120+. XOM directly leveraged to oil prices with strong free cash flow and shareholder returns. Energy sector led all sectors this week (+5.2%). The NFP beat adds consumer spending tailwind.
Iran War Day 34, Patriot missile demand surging. RTX is a scanner top pick with score 92. Defense spending supplemental expected post-Easter. Price above all key SMAs. The conflict shows no sign of de-escalation, and US defense contractors are the direct beneficiaries of every missile fired.
Gold at $4,677 with war premium intact. Central bank buying provides a floor. March CPI on April 9 will likely come in hot (oil-driven), supporting gold's inflation hedge narrative. If the Iran conflict escalates further, gold targets $5,000+. This is a portfolio hedge, not a speculation.
| Scenario | S&P 500 | Oil | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bull: OPEC+ supply + ceasefire hints | +1.5% to +2.5% | $100-105 | 25% |
| Base: OPEC+ partial supply, war continues | +0.5% to +1% | $108-112 | 45% |
| Bear: OPEC+ hold + escalation | -1% to -2% | $115-125 | 30% |
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics (NFP March 2026), Federal Reserve (FOMC), Yahoo Finance (quotes), Binance (crypto prices), Fortune (gold price), Times of India (oil), Morningstar (market calendar), RRFN (crude analysis), Israel Alma Center (Iran War daily report), Understanding War (Iran update), Euronews (Iran-Israel), DailyTickers Gateway (regime indicators), Fox Business (jobs analysis), LPL Financial (commentary).
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