The S&P closed at 7,748 and the Nasdaq added almost a full percent, but the strength was concentrated: chips and software did the work while consumer discretionary and materials leaked red. Producer prices land at 8:30 ET — the number that actually feeds the Fed's preferred inflation gauge.
Reference session: Wednesday 12 August 2026 close. Crypto and VIX quoted live into the 13 August open.
Green across the board on the index screen, but pull it apart and the day was thinner than it looked. Technology (XLK +1.70%) supplied most of the lift; strip it out and the tape is roughly flat. Small caps did tag along — the Russell added +0.64%, so the advance was wide but thin — not a pure mega-cap squeeze. The soft spots tell the other half: consumer discretionary (-1.05%), materials (-0.96%) and communications (-0.78%) were sold while the money went to chips and software. That is a market leaning into growth ahead of an inflation print, not hiding.
| Index / ETF | Close | Day |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (SPY) | 773.61 | +0.40% |
| Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) | 725.53 | +0.99% |
| Russell 2000 (IWM) | 302.90 | +0.64% |
| Dow (DIA) | 537.68 | +0.07% |
| 20Y+ Treasuries (TLT) | 82.11 | -0.09% |
The macro backdrop stays constructive. The S&P is trading above its 50-, 100- and 200-day averages, the regime read is risk-on with no defensive tilt showing over the next week, and the 10-year sits at 4.64% — elevated, but not moving. That last number is the one to keep an eye on today. Leadership here is rate-sensitive; if PPI runs hot and yields break higher, the same tech names that led get sold first.
An inflation-heavy stretch. CPI is behind us; today is the producer side and the labor pulse, then Friday shifts to the consumer.
Asia leaned green into the US open. Tokyo did the heavy lifting: the Nikkei closed +1.16%, extending its run, while Hong Kong (-0.17%) and Sydney (-0.23%) drifted lower. Europe is mixed and muted — the DAX up +0.30%, Paris flat at +0.02%, London softer (-0.32%) with the pound firm near 1.35. The dollar index sits right on the 100 line (DXY 99.9), euro at 1.154. No single catalyst overseas; the tape is waiting on the US number like everyone else.
| Index | Region | Last | Day |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nikkei 225 | Japan | 68,309 | +1.16% |
| Hang Seng | Hong Kong | 25,397 | -0.17% |
| ASX 200 | Australia | 9,189 | -0.23% |
| DAX | Germany | 26,411 | +0.30% |
| CAC 40 | France | 8,676 | +0.02% |
| FTSE 100 | UK | 10,798 | -0.32% |
Nothing to trade here this morning. Bitcoin is holding just above 63k, Ether under 1,900, and the majors are all fractionally red — the kind of tape that resolves on the macro print rather than anything crypto-native. XRP is the softest of the group, back to parity at $1.00.
| Asset | Price | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin (BTC) | $63,402 | -0.24% |
| Ethereum (ETH) | $1,878 | -0.17% |
| Solana (SOL) | $75.53 | -0.88% |
| XRP | $1.00 | -1.71% |
Precious metals were the quiet winners of the 12 August close — GLD +0.91%, SLV +1.08% — a bid that fits a market pricing rate cuts eventually without a growth scare. Both gave a little back overnight into the PPI print, and the sharper move is in crude: WTI is down 2.85% to $80.90 overnight (Aug 13), a clean break of the $81 handle. Note the analyst traffic around energy names ahead of the number, with a string of oil-and-gas price-target reiterations crossing this morning (EOG, DVN, APA). Cheaper crude feeds straight into the disinflation story the market wants confirmed at 8:30.
The clearest read on nerves this morning is the volatility curve, and it is relaxed. Near-dated VIX (9-day) sits at 11.1, the headline 30-day at 14.4, three-month at 18.5 and six-month at 20.8 — a steep, textbook contango. The 9-day/30-day ratio at 0.77 says traders see no near-term shock priced in; if they feared today's print, the front of the curve would be bid up, not sitting at an 11 handle. That is the setup risk-on regimes tend to run into a data event with.
The honest counter-read: calm curves cut both ways. Low front-end vol means cheap hedges, and it means a hot number has room to jolt a market that is not braced for it. The move today is more about the reaction in yields than the print itself.
CPI measures what you pay at the register. PPI measures what businesses charge each other one step up the chain — the wholesale price of goods and services before they reach you. Traders often treat it as the sideshow to CPI, but there is a reason today's number carries weight.
Several PPI categories — things like healthcare, airfares and portfolio-management fees — feed directly into PCE, the inflation gauge the Federal Reserve actually targets. So PPI is a preview of the number that moves rate policy. A soft producer print two days after a benign CPI would let the market keep leaning on the "cuts are coming" trade. A hot one reopens the question, and you would see it first in the 10-year yield, then in the rate-sensitive tech names that led yesterday.
The practical takeaway: don't just read the CPI-style headline this morning. Watch the core month-on-month change, and watch how the bond market reacts to it — that is the tell for where equities go next.
The Nasdaq 100 led again (+0.99%) and closed at 725.53, back to the upper end of its range with tech breadth confirming. The plan is a continuation trade that only works while the PPI print stays tame and yields behave — it is explicitly a bet on the current regime holding, not a hero long.
Invalidation: a hot PPI that pushes the 10-year through ~4.75% flips this. Rate-sensitive leadership sells off first, and a close back under 714 says the continuation failed — step aside, don't average down. Levels are plan reference off the 12 August close, not a forecast; size to the stop.
Index, sector, commodity, rates and crypto levels reference the 12 August 2026 US close and live quotes into the 13 August open. Volatility term structure from the CBOE VIX family. Economic calendar and earnings consensus from the official release schedule. Overnight Europe and Asia levels quoted intra-session.
This briefing is for information only and is not financial advice. Markets carry risk; levels and trade plans are analytical reference, not recommendations. Do your own work and size positions to your own risk tolerance.