{ "snapshot_id": "20260830T1521Z-f8e1525903a9", "snapshot_mode": "LIVE_CAPTURE", "as_of": "2026-08-30T15:21:00Z", "generated_at": "2026-08-30T15:21:38.069091914Z", "lookback": "24h", "verdict": "INCONCLUSIVE", "confidence": 0.09887413350429508, "drivers": [ "BTC 24h return 1.10% (quality GOOD)" ], "contradictions": [ "xyz:MSTR differs 3.13% from the last official MSTR quote (official market CLOSED); series remain separate." ], "symbol_impacts": [ { "symbol": "COIN", "direction": "POSITIVE", "evidence": [ "BTC/COIN 60d correlation 0.73, beta 1.32 (63 observations)", "BTC 24h 1.10%" ], "confidence": 0.35, "eligibility_checks": { "btc_correlation_abs_gte_0_5": true, "btc_link_available": true, "btc_move_abs_gte_1pct": true, "btc_quality_good": true, "supported_symbol_proxy": true } }, { "symbol": "EQX", "direction": "UNCERTAIN", "evidence": [ "No fresh liquid off-hours proxy passed deterministic eligibility rules." ], "confidence": 0, "eligibility_checks": { "supported_symbol_proxy": true }, "rejection_reason": "TOKENIZED_GOLD_CONFIRMATION_GATE_NOT_MET" }, { "symbol": "HUT", "direction": "UNCERTAIN", "evidence": [ "BTC/HUT 60d correlation 0.12, beta 0.32 (63 observations)", "BTC 24h 1.10%" ], "confidence": 0, "eligibility_checks": { "btc_correlation_abs_gte_0_5": false, "btc_link_available": true, "btc_move_abs_gte_1pct": true, "btc_quality_good": true, "supported_symbol_proxy": true }, "rejection_reason": "BTC_CORRELATION_BELOW_0_5_GATE" }, { "symbol": "IREN", "direction": "UNCERTAIN", "evidence": [ "BTC/IREN 60d correlation 0.21, beta 0.64 (63 observations)", "BTC 24h 1.10%" ], "confidence": 0, "eligibility_checks": { "btc_correlation_abs_gte_0_5": false, "btc_link_available": true, "btc_move_abs_gte_1pct": true, "btc_quality_good": true, "supported_symbol_proxy": true }, "rejection_reason": "BTC_CORRELATION_BELOW_0_5_GATE" }, { "symbol": "MSTR", "direction": "POSITIVE", "evidence": [ "xyz:MSTR 1h -0.02% (builder perp, separate from official)", "BTC/MSTR 60d correlation 0.76, beta 1.68 (63 observations)", "BTC 24h 1.10%" ], "confidence": 0.35, "eligibility_checks": { "btc_correlation_abs_gte_0_5": true, "btc_link_available": true, "btc_move_abs_gte_1pct": true, "btc_quality_good": true, "hip3_quality_good": true, "supported_symbol_proxy": true } }, { "symbol": "PAAS", "direction": "UNCERTAIN", "evidence": [ "No fresh liquid off-hours proxy passed deterministic eligibility rules." ], "confidence": 0, "eligibility_checks": { "supported_symbol_proxy": true }, "rejection_reason": "TOKENIZED_GOLD_CONFIRMATION_GATE_NOT_MET" } ], "facets": { "crypto": { "status": "PARTIAL", "observations": [ { "source": "binance_spot_and_usdm_public_api", "instrument_id": "BTCUSDT", "canonical_asset": "BTC", "event_at": "2026-08-30T15:21:38.007Z", "observed_at": "2026-08-30T15:21:38.007Z", "ingested_at": "2026-08-30T15:21:39.427520345Z", "age_seconds": 1, "market_state": "OPEN", "price": 78720.79, "spread_bps": 0.0012703125349628197, "volume": 497037598.8245665, "liquidity_score": 99.99872968746504, "quality": "GOOD", "returns": { "1h_pct": -0.07986422573906804, "24h_pct": 1.0986014833810565, "4h_pct": 0.7097587186244647, "72h_pct": -1.9694698733486282 }, "metrics": { "basis_spot_perp_pct": -0.0386047955057367, "book_depth_50bps_usd": 405689.7318024001, "funding_rate": 0.00006962, "intraday_range_pct": 1.4880215840490498, "long_liquidations_24h_usd": null, "open_interest_change_24h_pct": -0.1956733257701071, "open_interest_contracts": 108028.914, "realized_vol_annualized_pct": 27.697543696690836, "relative_volume_24h": 0.5421911557736085, "short_liquidations_24h_usd": null }, "metadata": { "price_oi_funding_regime": "ALIGNED_OR_NEUTRAL", "rolling_equity_links_60d": [ { "symbol": "QQQ", "correlation": 0.2408947423702741, "beta_to_btc": 0.15836188044420996, "observations": 63 }, { "symbol": "COIN", "correlation": 0.726805545965577, "beta_to_btc": 1.319197792268392, "observations": 63 }, { "symbol": "HUT", "correlation": 0.12200739627234329, "beta_to_btc": 0.32320733538202995, "observations": 63 }, { "symbol": "IREN", "correlation": 0.2087518888585511, "beta_to_btc": 0.6397244155363373, "observations": 63 }, { "symbol": "MSTR", "correlation": 0.7579277970084539, "beta_to_btc": 1.6835177135845187, "observations": 63 } ] }, "warnings": [ "Public aggregate liquidation totals are unavailable from the selected endpoint; values remain null." ] }, { "source": "binance_spot_and_usdm_public_api", "instrument_id": "ETHUSDT", "canonical_asset": "ETH", "event_at": "2026-08-30T15:21:37.999Z", "observed_at": "2026-08-30T15:21:37.999Z", "ingested_at": "2026-08-30T15:21:39.429719395Z", "age_seconds": 1, "market_state": "OPEN", "price": 2476.45, "spread_bps": 0.040380464737813815, "volume": 320922793.053119, "liquidity_score": 99.95961953526219, "quality": "GOOD", "returns": { "1h_pct": -0.027047539077640348, "24h_pct": 1.296241757882144, "4h_pct": 0.6519238663474702, "72h_pct": -1.7936455061704937 }, "metrics": { "basis_spot_perp_pct": -0.05325703002281301, "book_depth_50bps_usd": 241970.00441900003, "funding_rate": 0.00005436, "intraday_range_pct": 1.6327131586373722, "long_liquidations_24h_usd": null, "open_interest_change_24h_pct": -2.486751481178928, "open_interest_contracts": 2384967.367, "realized_vol_annualized_pct": 32.80476292518779, "relative_volume_24h": 0.6103700747550425, "short_liquidations_24h_usd": null }, "metadata": { "price_oi_funding_regime": "PRICE_UP_OI_DOWN_SHORT_COVERING_OR_DELEVERAGING" }, "warnings": [ "Public aggregate liquidation totals are unavailable from the selected endpoint; values remain null." ] }, { "source": "binance_spot_and_usdm_public_api", "instrument_id": "SOLUSDT", "canonical_asset": "SOL", "event_at": "2026-08-30T15:21:37.738Z", "observed_at": "2026-08-30T15:21:37.738Z", "ingested_at": "2026-08-30T15:21:39.431457203Z", "age_seconds": 1, "market_state": "OPEN", "price": 106.35, "spread_bps": 0.9403356998439893, "volume": 155095106.98196, "liquidity_score": 99.05966430015602, "quality": "GOOD", "returns": { "1h_pct": -0.35603860208002214, "24h_pct": 1.2567837760639744, "4h_pct": 1.1700913242008948, "72h_pct": -0.792910447761197 }, "metrics": { "basis_spot_perp_pct": -0.056417489421711764, "book_depth_50bps_usd": 4081963.13884, "funding_rate": 0.00002164, "intraday_range_pct": 2.9593681606242264, "long_liquidations_24h_usd": null, "open_interest_change_24h_pct": -3.7550589995523853, "open_interest_contracts": 8578362.71, "realized_vol_annualized_pct": 51.42737541271902, "relative_volume_24h": 0.608638204082683, "short_liquidations_24h_usd": null }, "metadata": { "price_oi_funding_regime": "PRICE_UP_OI_DOWN_SHORT_COVERING_OR_DELEVERAGING" }, "warnings": [ "Public aggregate liquidation totals are unavailable from the selected endpoint; values remain null." ] }, { "source": "coingecko_global_api", "instrument_id": "TOTAL_CRYPTO_MARKET_CAP", "canonical_asset": "TOTAL_CRYPTO", "event_at": "2026-08-30T15:21:17Z", "observed_at": "2026-08-30T15:21:17Z", "ingested_at": "2026-08-30T15:21:39.58083079Z", "age_seconds": 22, "market_state": "OPEN", "price": 2648022396448.525, "spread_bps": null, "volume": null, "liquidity_score": null, "quality": "GOOD", "metrics": { "basket_positive_breadth_pct": 100, "btc_dominance_pct": 59.52350438537386 }, "warnings": [ "Aggregate market cap has no executable spread or order-book depth." ] } ], "warnings": [] }, "metals": { "status": "PARTIAL", "observations": [ { "source": "kucoin_official_spot_api", "instrument_id": "PAXG-USDT", "canonical_asset": "PAXG", "event_at": "2026-08-30T15:21:38.465Z", "observed_at": "2026-08-30T15:21:38.465Z", "ingested_at": "2026-08-30T15:21:38.827434624Z", "age_seconds": 0, "market_state": "OPEN", "price": 4465.91, "spread_bps": 0.022391827878986227, "volume": 427809.296504, "liquidity_score": 99.97760817212101, "quality": "GOOD", "returns": { "1h_pct": -0.09127537198069247, "24h_pct": null, "4h_pct": 0.0968264676942443, "72h_pct": null }, "metrics": { "book_depth_50bps_usd": 121755.73570699996, "intraday_range_pct": 0.25391973178187394, "premium_vs_comex_front_month_pct": -1.4126118396267873, "premium_vs_xau_spot_pct": 0.213403155218006, "xaut_paxg_divergence_pct": -0.25750630890456483, "xaut_paxg_xau_divergence_pct": 0.2580558354926559 }, "warnings": [] }, { "source": "kucoin_official_spot_api", "instrument_id": "XAUT-USDT", "canonical_asset": "XAUT", "event_at": "2026-08-30T15:21:38.336Z", "observed_at": "2026-08-30T15:21:38.336Z", "ingested_at": "2026-08-30T15:21:38.825899897Z", "age_seconds": 0, "market_state": "OPEN", "price": 4454.41, "spread_bps": 0.02244923386426133, "volume": 831485.461728, "liquidity_score": 98.11646614831115, "quality": "GOOD", "returns": { "1h_pct": -0.09644045026476755, "24h_pct": null, "4h_pct": -0.07178734792859798, "72h_pct": null }, "metrics": { "book_depth_50bps_usd": 23968.367817000002, "intraday_range_pct": 0.1803179786444296, "premium_vs_comex_front_month_pct": -1.6664805839239794, "premium_vs_xau_spot_pct": -0.044652680274659406, "xaut_paxg_divergence_pct": -0.25750630890456483, "xaut_paxg_xau_divergence_pct": 0.2580558354926559 }, "warnings": [] }, { "source": "xaus_public_spot_api", "instrument_id": "XAU-USD-SPOT", "canonical_asset": "XAU_USD_SPOT", "event_at": "2026-08-30T15:20:10.91Z", "observed_at": "2026-08-30T15:20:10.91Z", "ingested_at": "2026-08-30T15:21:38.878381465Z", "age_seconds": 87, "market_state": "OPEN", "price": 4456.399902, "spread_bps": null, "volume": null, "liquidity_score": null, "quality": "THIN", "metrics": { "xaut_paxg_xau_divergence_pct": 0.2580558354926559 }, "metadata": { "provider_source": "upstream", "provider_state": "fresh", "unit": "USD per troy ounce" }, "warnings": [ "XAU/USD is an indicative mid-market spot reference, not an executable venue; spread, depth and volume remain null." ] }, { "source": "yahoo_finance_chart_comex_proxy", "instrument_id": "GC=F", "canonical_asset": "COMEX_GOLD_FRONT_MONTH", "event_at": "2026-08-28T20:59:57Z", "observed_at": "2026-08-28T20:59:57Z", "ingested_at": "2026-08-30T15:21:38.88569678Z", "age_seconds": 152501, "market_state": "CLOSED", "price": 4529.89990234375, "spread_bps": null, "volume": 269369, "liquidity_score": null, "quality": "STALE", "returns": { "1h_pct": 0.44123951981707155, "24h_pct": -2.85438768295625, "4h_pct": 0.0839531739359467, "72h_pct": -3.6232561570162525 }, "metrics": { "intraday_range_pct": 4.1387886411997865 }, "metadata": { "exchange": "CMX", "instrument_type": "FUTURE" }, "warnings": [ "Source does not expose executable spread/depth on this endpoint; those fields remain null.", "Official/reference market is closed; stale close is context only and is excluded from live aggregation.", "GC=F is a COMEX futures proxy, not XAU/USD spot; token premiums are not labelled as XAU spot premiums." ] } ], "warnings": [] }, "hip3": { "status": "PARTIAL", "observations": [ { "source": "hyperliquid_official_info_api", "instrument_id": "xyz:MSTR", "canonical_asset": "MSTR_HIP3_PERP", "event_at": "2026-08-30T15:21:38.79Z", "observed_at": "2026-08-30T15:21:38.79Z", "ingested_at": "2026-08-30T15:21:40.147852755Z", "age_seconds": 1, "market_state": "OPEN", "price": 131.29, "spread_bps": 0.7617016414663446, "volume": 2529678.4657600005, "liquidity_score": 99.23829835853365, "quality": "GOOD", "returns": { "1h_pct": -0.022831050228311334, "24h_pct": 2.6167786283393113, "4h_pct": 1.5930709148557654, "72h_pct": null }, "metrics": { "book_depth_50bps_usd": 505515.08439000003, "funding_rate": 0.00000625, "index_price": null, "long_liquidations_24h_usd": null, "mark_price": 131.29, "mid_price": 131.285, "open_interest_contracts": 368539.036, "oracle_price": 131.28, "premium_vs_last_official_mstr_pct": 3.126229296779681, "premium_vs_oracle_pct": -0.0000914077, "short_liquidations_24h_usd": null }, "metadata": { "canonical_underlying": "MSTR", "contract": "xyz:MSTR", "deployer": "0x88806a71d74ad0a510b350545c9ae490912f0888", "dex": "xyz", "dex_full_name": "XYZ", "margin_mode": "noCross", "margin_table_id": 10, "max_leverage": 10, "official_reference_state": "CLOSED", "only_isolated": true, "oracle_event_at": null, "oracle_updater": null, "series_role": "builder_perpetual", "set_oracle_subdeployers": [ "0x1234567890545d1df9ee64b35fdd16966e08acec" ], "streaming_oi_cap_usd": "75000000.0" }, "warnings": [ "HIP-3 is a builder-operated perpetual, not an official MSTR quotation.", "Hyperliquid metaAndAssetCtxs does not expose the oracle event timestamp; oracle timestamp remains null.", "Aggregate HIP-3 liquidations are not exposed by the selected public snapshot endpoints; values remain null." ] }, { "source": "yahoo_finance_chart", "instrument_id": "MSTR", "canonical_asset": "MSTR_OFFICIAL", "event_at": "2026-08-28T20:00:01Z", "observed_at": "2026-08-28T20:00:01Z", "ingested_at": "2026-08-30T15:21:40.288063179Z", "age_seconds": 156099, "market_state": "CLOSED", "price": 127.30999755859375, "spread_bps": null, "volume": 94187133, "liquidity_score": null, "quality": "STALE", "returns": { "1h_pct": -0.06280071547060118, "24h_pct": 1.0878156984512444, "4h_pct": -0.5363432277167735, "72h_pct": null }, "metrics": { "intraday_range_pct": 15.007933359297496 }, "metadata": { "exchange": "NMS", "instrument_type": "EQUITY", "series_role": "official_underlying_reference" }, "warnings": [ "Source does not expose executable spread/depth on this endpoint; those fields remain null.", "Official/reference market is closed; stale close is context only and is excluded from live aggregation.", "This official underlying series remains separate from xyz:MSTR HIP-3." ] } ], "warnings": [] }, "predictions": { "status": "FULL", "observations": [ { "source": "polymarket_gamma_public_api", "instrument_id": "0xa3b36b2d6104d34af4e6c6215fc818e43352e78a748fbfb0b85e3a35f71dec9a", "canonical_asset": "PREDICTION_MARKET", "event_at": "2026-08-30T15:18:52.754629Z", "observed_at": "2026-08-30T15:21:38.100428622Z", "ingested_at": "2026-08-30T15:21:38.100428622Z", "age_seconds": 0, "market_state": "OPEN", "price": 0.515, "spread_bps": 194.17475728155355, "volume": 15425342.639146024, "liquidity_score": 87.57281553398059, "quality": "GOOD", "returns": { "1h_probability_points": 0, "24h_probability_points": -0.03, "7d_probability_points": -0.17 }, "metrics": { "liquidity_usd": 459694.659, "open_interest_usd": null, "volume_24h_usd": 546525.3814400004 }, "metadata": { "ask": 0.52, "bid": 0.51, "clob_token_ids": [ "5615282760875985231868508008056959876238536896643315063916840237042205273721", "97050921740416192996389806693742575608111328819185493163189880975611314813724" ], "condition_id": "0xa3b36b2d6104d34af4e6c6215fc818e43352e78a748fbfb0b85e3a35f71dec9a", "contradictory_market_ids": [], "end_date": "2026-09-16T00:00:00Z", "market_id": "2252244", "no_probability": 0.485, "open_interest": null, "outcomes": [ "Yes", "No" ], "price_change_1h": 0, "price_change_24h": -0.03, "price_change_7d": -0.17, "question": "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?", "related_market_ids": [], "relevance_method": "exact word/phrase match in question; description-only matches are ineligible", "relevance_score": 75, "relevance_taxonomy": [ "monetary_policy" ], "reliability_method": "liquidity+24h_volume+spread+resolution completeness; deterministic, no LLM", "reliability_score": 87.57281553398059, "resolution_rules": "The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.\n\nThis market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.\n\nIf the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.\n\nThe level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the \"No change\" bracket.", "resolution_source": "", "transaction_count": null, "yes_probability": 0.515 }, "warnings": [] }, { "source": "polymarket_gamma_public_api", "instrument_id": "0xac02cbb049e46d6a3627c0fdf52fa554982a9025d45968207b362acb6ca4b830", "canonical_asset": "PREDICTION_MARKET", "event_at": "2026-08-30T15:18:52.754629Z", "observed_at": "2026-08-30T15:21:38.100715663Z", "ingested_at": "2026-08-30T15:21:38.100715663Z", "age_seconds": 0, "market_state": "OPEN", "price": 0.0075, "spread_bps": 1333.3333333333333, "volume": 19353245.266581006, "liquidity_score": 73.33333333333334, "quality": "GOOD", "returns": { "1h_probability_points": -0.001, "24h_probability_points": 0, "7d_probability_points": -0.006 }, "metrics": { "liquidity_usd": 782077.84222, "open_interest_usd": null, "volume_24h_usd": 431834.7340929999 }, "metadata": { "ask": 0.008, "bid": 0.007, "clob_token_ids": [ "57748138085022719760345772310040703848567377822400132842014290209986511882046", "28239418772633645184924651434956000849078365566842629564562475378531350731731" ], "condition_id": "0xac02cbb049e46d6a3627c0fdf52fa554982a9025d45968207b362acb6ca4b830", "contradictory_market_ids": [], "end_date": "2026-09-16T00:00:00Z", "market_id": "2252243", "no_probability": 0.9925, "open_interest": null, "outcomes": [ "Yes", "No" ], "price_change_1h": -0.001, "price_change_24h": 0, "price_change_7d": -0.006, "question": "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?", "related_market_ids": [], "relevance_method": "exact word/phrase match in question; description-only matches are ineligible", "relevance_score": 75, "relevance_taxonomy": [ "monetary_policy" ], "reliability_method": "liquidity+24h_volume+spread+resolution completeness; deterministic, no LLM", "reliability_score": 73.33333333333334, "resolution_rules": "The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.\n\nThis market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.\n\nIf the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.\n\nThe level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the \"No change\" bracket.", "resolution_source": "", "transaction_count": null, "yes_probability": 0.0075 }, "warnings": [] }, { "source": "polymarket_gamma_public_api", "instrument_id": "0x876506d8b2bd7a0d3fa4fe18c024eee6e1dd81ee24c26795dadd6cfe4a7b5d0d", "canonical_asset": "PREDICTION_MARKET", "event_at": "2026-08-30T15:18:52.754629Z", "observed_at": "2026-08-30T15:21:38.101495267Z", "ingested_at": "2026-08-30T15:21:38.101495267Z", "age_seconds": 0, "market_state": "OPEN", "price": 0.465, "spread_bps": 215.05376344085923, "volume": 13454115.778390996, "liquidity_score": 87.31182795698926, "quality": "GOOD", "returns": { "1h_probability_points": 0, "24h_probability_points": 0.03, "7d_probability_points": 0.16 }, "metrics": { "liquidity_usd": 535542.5317, "open_interest_usd": null, "volume_24h_usd": 284327.51273799996 }, "metadata": { "ask": 0.47, "bid": 0.46, "clob_token_ids": [ "63842529068710005716169325380315470359047749786610778647370693404952498013178", "2881957189963819690709899387312951271986076905757701114514025622922000576600" ], "condition_id": "0x876506d8b2bd7a0d3fa4fe18c024eee6e1dd81ee24c26795dadd6cfe4a7b5d0d", "contradictory_market_ids": [], "end_date": "2026-09-16T00:00:00Z", "market_id": "2252245", "no_probability": 0.535, "open_interest": null, "outcomes": [ "Yes", "No" ], "price_change_1h": 0, "price_change_24h": 0.03, "price_change_7d": 0.16, "question": "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?", "related_market_ids": [], "relevance_method": "exact word/phrase match in question; description-only matches are ineligible", "relevance_score": 75, "relevance_taxonomy": [ "monetary_policy" ], "reliability_method": "liquidity+24h_volume+spread+resolution completeness; deterministic, no LLM", "reliability_score": 87.31182795698926, "resolution_rules": "The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.\n\nThis market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.\n\nIf the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.\n\nThe level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the \"No change\" bracket.", "resolution_source": "", "transaction_count": null, "yes_probability": 0.465 }, "warnings": [] }, { "source": "polymarket_gamma_public_api", "instrument_id": "0x2e4b58fc18dbffd74d5275d89fb076943f21992763c45dcadd81391b83bde13c", "canonical_asset": "PREDICTION_MARKET", "event_at": "2026-08-30T15:18:52.754629Z", "observed_at": "2026-08-30T15:21:38.101765348Z", "ingested_at": "2026-08-30T15:21:38.101765348Z", "age_seconds": 0, "market_state": "OPEN", "price": 0.0065, "spread_bps": 1538.4615384615383, "volume": 10200085.522001006, "liquidity_score": 70.76923076923077, "quality": "GOOD", "returns": { "1h_probability_points": 0, "24h_probability_points": 0.001, "7d_probability_points": 0.003 }, "metrics": { "liquidity_usd": 785518.02239, "open_interest_usd": null, "volume_24h_usd": 240745.080366 }, "metadata": { "ask": 0.007, "bid": 0.006, "clob_token_ids": [ "88912926533493988427719291698947688154042720958310632316541141466409683822293", "74195220586129237349258803179082634542284503538320000637909015632982564961602" ], "condition_id": "0x2e4b58fc18dbffd74d5275d89fb076943f21992763c45dcadd81391b83bde13c", "contradictory_market_ids": [], "end_date": "2026-09-16T00:00:00Z", "market_id": "2252246", "no_probability": 0.9935, "open_interest": null, "outcomes": [ "Yes", "No" ], "price_change_1h": 0, "price_change_24h": 0.001, "price_change_7d": 0.003, "question": "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?", "related_market_ids": [], "relevance_method": "exact word/phrase match in question; description-only matches are ineligible", "relevance_score": 75, "relevance_taxonomy": [ "monetary_policy" ], "reliability_method": "liquidity+24h_volume+spread+resolution completeness; deterministic, no LLM", "reliability_score": 70.76923076923077, "resolution_rules": "The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.\n\nThis market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.\n\nIf the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.\n\nThe level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the \"No change\" bracket.", "resolution_source": "", "transaction_count": null, "yes_probability": 0.0065 }, "warnings": [] }, { "source": "polymarket_gamma_public_api", "instrument_id": "0x5e464d85eb49f22d876f3ed6168a7db5e2288e9ae1eb91effd2758e994676f86", "canonical_asset": "PREDICTION_MARKET", "event_at": "2026-08-30T15:18:52.754629Z", "observed_at": "2026-08-30T15:21:38.104810403Z", "ingested_at": "2026-08-30T15:21:38.104810403Z", "age_seconds": 0, "market_state": "OPEN", "price": 0.0025, "spread_bps": 4000, "volume": 8270671.687963995, "liquidity_score": 65, "quality": "GOOD", "returns": { "1h_probability_points": 0, "24h_probability_points": 0, "7d_probability_points": 0 }, "metrics": { "liquidity_usd": 1006393.70223, "open_interest_usd": null, "volume_24h_usd": 105161.61016199998 }, "metadata": { "ask": 0.003, "bid": 0.002, "clob_token_ids": [ "97186030785608128217926542396950266594898339988989015155120280107165449433603", "81470465080656150088482886298356783621062802919110096763062861781139262816347" ], "condition_id": "0x5e464d85eb49f22d876f3ed6168a7db5e2288e9ae1eb91effd2758e994676f86", "contradictory_market_ids": [], "end_date": "2026-09-16T00:00:00Z", "market_id": "2252242", "no_probability": 0.9975, "open_interest": null, "outcomes": [ "Yes", "No" ], "price_change_1h": 0, "price_change_24h": 0, "price_change_7d": 0, "question": "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?", "related_market_ids": [], "relevance_method": "exact word/phrase match in question; description-only matches are ineligible", "relevance_score": 75, "relevance_taxonomy": [ "monetary_policy" ], "reliability_method": "liquidity+24h_volume+spread+resolution completeness; deterministic, no LLM", "reliability_score": 65, "resolution_rules": "The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.\n\nThis market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.\n\nIf the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.\n\nThe level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the \"No change\" bracket.", "resolution_source": "", "transaction_count": null, "yes_probability": 0.0025 }, "warnings": [] } ], "warnings": [] }, "futures": { "status": "PARTIAL", "observations": [ { "source": "yahoo_finance_chart", "instrument_id": "HG=F", "canonical_asset": "COPPER_COMEX", "event_at": "2026-08-28T20:59:15Z", "observed_at": "2026-08-28T20:59:15Z", "ingested_at": "2026-08-30T15:21:38.319488819Z", "age_seconds": 152543, "market_state": "CLOSED", "price": 6.658999919891357, "spread_bps": null, "volume": 41288, "liquidity_score": null, "quality": "STALE", "returns": { "1h_pct": 0.31635896973578603, "24h_pct": -0.3814839811039916, "4h_pct": 0.015018436796299106, "72h_pct": -0.7378697060661521 }, "metrics": { "intraday_range_pct": 1.7654103867175026 }, "metadata": { "exchange": "CMX", "instrument_type": "FUTURE" }, "warnings": [ "Source does not expose executable spread/depth on this endpoint; those fields remain null.", "Official/reference market is closed; stale close is context only and is excluded from live aggregation." ] }, { "source": "yahoo_finance_chart", "instrument_id": "DX-Y.NYB", "canonical_asset": "DXY", "event_at": "2026-08-28T20:59:59Z", "observed_at": "2026-08-28T20:59:59Z", "ingested_at": "2026-08-30T15:21:38.239607521Z", "age_seconds": 152499, "market_state": "CLOSED", "price": 99.677001953125, "spread_bps": null, "volume": null, "liquidity_score": null, "quality": "STALE", "returns": { "1h_pct": 0.018066980113462527, "24h_pct": 0.5264516970949984, "4h_pct": 0, "72h_pct": 0.7448953846096895 }, "metrics": { "intraday_range_pct": 0.6333565527392269 }, "metadata": { "exchange": "NYB", "instrument_type": "INDEX" }, "warnings": [ "Source does not expose executable spread/depth on this endpoint; those fields remain null.", "Official/reference market is closed; stale close is context only and is excluded from live aggregation." ] }, { "source": "yahoo_finance_chart", "instrument_id": "ES=F", "canonical_asset": "ES", "event_at": "2026-08-28T20:59:59Z", "observed_at": "2026-08-28T20:59:59Z", "ingested_at": "2026-08-30T15:21:38.312621627Z", "age_seconds": 152499, "market_state": "CLOSED", "price": 7722, "spread_bps": null, "volume": 1580519, "liquidity_score": null, "quality": "STALE", "returns": { "1h_pct": -0.003237398426625404, "24h_pct": -0.277652224446312, "4h_pct": 0.04210526315788776, "72h_pct": 0.5305126118795744 }, "metrics": { "intraday_range_pct": 0.9136990281858394 }, "metadata": { "exchange": "CME", "instrument_type": "FUTURE" }, "warnings": [ "Source does not expose executable spread/depth on this endpoint; those fields remain null.", "Official/reference market is closed; stale close is context only and is excluded from live aggregation." ] }, { "source": "yahoo_finance_chart", "instrument_id": "GC=F", "canonical_asset": "GOLD_COMEX", "event_at": "2026-08-28T20:59:57Z", "observed_at": "2026-08-28T20:59:57Z", "ingested_at": "2026-08-30T15:21:38.206829246Z", "age_seconds": 152501, "market_state": "CLOSED", "price": 4529.89990234375, "spread_bps": null, "volume": 269369, "liquidity_score": null, "quality": "STALE", "returns": { "1h_pct": 0.44123951981707155, "24h_pct": -2.85438768295625, "4h_pct": 0.0839531739359467, "72h_pct": -3.6232561570162525 }, "metrics": { "intraday_range_pct": 4.1387886411997865 }, "metadata": { "exchange": "CMX", "instrument_type": "FUTURE" }, "warnings": [ "Source does not expose executable spread/depth on this endpoint; those fields remain null.", "Official/reference market is closed; stale close is context only and is excluded from live aggregation." ] }, { "source": "yahoo_finance_chart", "instrument_id": "NQ=F", "canonical_asset": "NQ", "event_at": "2026-08-28T20:59:59Z", "observed_at": "2026-08-28T20:59:59Z", "ingested_at": "2026-08-30T15:21:38.246754395Z", "age_seconds": 152499, "market_state": "CLOSED", "price": 29491.75, "spread_bps": null, "volume": 606873, "liquidity_score": null, "quality": "STALE", "returns": { "1h_pct": -0.006781097690189419, "24h_pct": -0.6434713764728706, "4h_pct": 0.0763507724153234, "72h_pct": 0.915335722901367 }, "metrics": { "intraday_range_pct": 1.2643194070080863 }, "metadata": { "exchange": "CME", "instrument_type": "FUTURE" }, "warnings": [ "Source does not expose executable spread/depth on this endpoint; those fields remain null.", "Official/reference market is closed; stale close is context only and is excluded from live aggregation." ] }, { "source": "yahoo_finance_chart", "instrument_id": "RTY=F", "canonical_asset": "RTY", "event_at": "2026-08-28T20:59:58Z", "observed_at": "2026-08-28T20:59:58Z", "ingested_at": "2026-08-30T15:21:38.251768939Z", "age_seconds": 152500, "market_state": "CLOSED", "price": 2977.5, "spread_bps": null, "volume": 185629, "liquidity_score": null, "quality": "STALE", "returns": { "1h_pct": -0.0167897918065818, "24h_pct": -1.4431861324315176, "4h_pct": -0.11405623989845237, "72h_pct": -1.0139627659574435 }, "metrics": { "intraday_range_pct": 1.6187197167907237 }, "metadata": { "exchange": "CME", "instrument_type": "FUTURE" }, "warnings": [ "Source does not expose executable spread/depth on this endpoint; those fields remain null.", "Official/reference market is closed; stale close is context only and is excluded from live aggregation." ] }, { "source": "yahoo_finance_chart", "instrument_id": "SI=F", "canonical_asset": "SILVER_COMEX", "event_at": "2026-08-28T20:59:55Z", "observed_at": "2026-08-28T20:59:55Z", "ingested_at": "2026-08-30T15:21:38.284850415Z", "age_seconds": 152503, "market_state": "CLOSED", "price": 67.78600311279297, "spread_bps": null, "volume": 92597, "liquidity_score": null, "quality": "STALE", "returns": { "1h_pct": 0.9847346186859784, "24h_pct": -3.5143324135634812, "4h_pct": 0.20103707885659183, "72h_pct": -1.3304132111356726 }, "metrics": { "intraday_range_pct": 7.4306067198621 }, "metadata": { "exchange": "CMX", "instrument_type": "FUTURE" }, "warnings": [ "Source does not expose executable spread/depth on this endpoint; those fields remain null.", "Official/reference market is closed; stale close is context only and is excluded from live aggregation." ] }, { "source": "yahoo_finance_chart", "instrument_id": "ZN=F", "canonical_asset": "US_10Y_NOTE_FUTURE", "event_at": "2026-08-28T20:59:59Z", "observed_at": "2026-08-28T20:59:59Z", "ingested_at": "2026-08-30T15:21:38.218009299Z", "age_seconds": 152499, "market_state": "CLOSED", "price": 107.875, "spread_bps": null, "volume": 3004199, "liquidity_score": null, "quality": "STALE", "returns": { "1h_pct": 0.02897710808460463, "24h_pct": -0.389554176886453, "4h_pct": 0, "72h_pct": -0.8758076094759537 }, "metrics": { "intraday_range_pct": 0.6204010965228682 }, "metadata": { "exchange": "CBT", "instrument_type": "FUTURE" }, "warnings": [ "Source does not expose executable spread/depth on this endpoint; those fields remain null.", "Official/reference market is closed; stale close is context only and is excluded from live aggregation." ] }, { "source": "yahoo_finance_chart", "instrument_id": "ZT=F", "canonical_asset": "US_2Y_NOTE_FUTURE", "event_at": "2026-08-28T21:00:00Z", "observed_at": "2026-08-28T21:00:00Z", "ingested_at": "2026-08-30T15:21:38.219535866Z", "age_seconds": 152498, "market_state": "CLOSED", "price": 102.62109375, "spread_bps": null, "volume": 2847745, "liquidity_score": null, "quality": "STALE", "returns": { "1h_pct": 0.011420740063949886, "24h_pct": -0.20891893945149675, "4h_pct": -0.015223596574687193, "72h_pct": -0.3754266211604129 }, "metrics": { "intraday_range_pct": 0.27729241054470866 }, "metadata": { "exchange": "CBT", "instrument_type": "FUTURE" }, "warnings": [ "Source does not expose executable spread/depth on this endpoint; those fields remain null.", "Official/reference market is closed; stale close is context only and is excluded from live aggregation." ] }, { "source": "yahoo_finance_chart", "instrument_id": "VX=F", "canonical_asset": "VIX_FUTURE", "observed_at": "2026-08-30T15:21:38.319528259Z", "ingested_at": "2026-08-30T15:21:38.319528259Z", "age_seconds": 0, "market_state": "STALE", "price": null, "spread_bps": null, "volume": null, "liquidity_score": null, "quality": "UNAVAILABLE", "metadata": { "attempted_instrument_id": "VX=F", "fallback_used": false, "instrument_type": "continuous_vix_future" }, "warnings": [ "Yahoo has no supported continuous VIX-futures chart for VX=F; spot VIX was not substituted." ] }, { "source": "yahoo_finance_chart", "instrument_id": "CL=F", "canonical_asset": "WTI", "event_at": "2026-08-28T20:59:58Z", "observed_at": "2026-08-28T20:59:58Z", "ingested_at": "2026-08-30T15:21:38.250799454Z", "age_seconds": 152500, "market_state": "CLOSED", "price": 83.4000015258789, "spread_bps": null, "volume": 144500, "liquidity_score": null, "quality": "STALE", "returns": { "1h_pct": -0.023971042322379343, "24h_pct": -0.2750158257713742, "4h_pct": -0.11975865164203237, "72h_pct": 1.3612089975672648 }, "metrics": { "intraday_range_pct": 1.829485626623459 }, "metadata": { "exchange": "NYM", "instrument_type": "FUTURE" }, "warnings": [ "Source does not expose executable spread/depth on this endpoint; those fields remain null.", "Official/reference market is closed; stale close is context only and is excluded from live aggregation." ] } ], "warnings": [] } }, "warnings": [ "24/7 markets are contextual signals; this output does not claim they predict the next US cash open." ] }