{ "as_of": "2026-09-07T07:43:00Z", "captured_at": "2026-09-07T07:43:52.708561706Z", "commit": "06e115d7", "confidence": 0.1, "contradictions": [], "deployment_id": "06e115d7", "drivers": [ "BTC 24h return -0.70% (quality GOOD)", "ES live return -0.02%", "NQ live return -0.01%" ], "facets": { "crypto": { "observations": [ { "age_seconds": 2, "canonical_asset": "BTC", "event_at": "2026-09-07T07:43:52.011Z", "ingested_at": "2026-09-07T07:43:54.084107488Z", "instrument_id": "BTCUSDT", "liquidity_score": 99.99873808062003, "market_state": "OPEN", "metadata": { "price_oi_funding_regime": "QUIET_PRICE_FALLING_OI_INCONCLUSIVE", "rolling_equity_links_60d": [ { "beta_to_btc": 0.14892056408771986, "correlation": 0.22367655197439743, "observations": 61, "symbol": "QQQ" }, { "beta_to_btc": 1.4734901419994386, "correlation": 0.7394555022336687, "observations": 61, "symbol": "COIN" }, { "beta_to_btc": 0.35478130846385575, "correlation": 0.12449134108310508, "observations": 61, "symbol": "HUT" }, { "beta_to_btc": 0.6509241341042977, "correlation": 0.19775948132562784, "observations": 61, "symbol": "IREN" }, { "beta_to_btc": 1.8627144330443324, "correlation": 0.7540947850932967, "observations": 61, "symbol": "MSTR" } ] }, "metrics": { "basis_spot_perp_pct": -0.038191338400439534, "book_depth_50bps_usd": 382864.1578308999, "funding_rate": 0.00003274, "intraday_range_pct": 1.9527474427099372, "long_liquidations_24h_usd": null, "open_interest_change_24h_pct": -6.749492291724213, "open_interest_contracts": 106775.61, "realized_vol_annualized_pct": 31.216997914853707, "relative_volume_24h": 1.1060133929807499, "short_liquidations_24h_usd": null }, "observed_at": "2026-09-07T07:43:52.011Z", "price": 79244.37, "quality": "GOOD", "returns": { "1h_pct": -0.5208558903439631, "24h_pct": -0.7025123739114125, "4h_pct": -0.44226880138659164, "72h_pct": -1.7512581383334003 }, "source": "binance_spot_and_usdm_public_api", "spread_bps": 0.0012619193799787926, "volume": 846390060.0682619, "warnings": [ "Public aggregate liquidation totals are unavailable from the selected endpoint; values remain null." ] }, { "age_seconds": 2, "canonical_asset": "ETH", "event_at": "2026-09-07T07:43:52Z", "ingested_at": "2026-09-07T07:43:54.094129576Z", "instrument_id": "ETHUSDT", "liquidity_score": 99.95974826565435, "market_state": "OPEN", "metadata": { "price_oi_funding_regime": "QUIET_PRICE_FALLING_OI_INCONCLUSIVE" }, "metrics": { "basis_spot_perp_pct": -0.049686453708586154, "book_depth_50bps_usd": 198932.54049699998, "funding_rate": 0.00001477, "intraday_range_pct": 3.0337997019087375, "long_liquidations_24h_usd": null, "open_interest_change_24h_pct": -1.8838805417137783, "open_interest_contracts": 2289721.963, "realized_vol_annualized_pct": 41.76032189085418, "relative_volume_24h": 1.2858690515558795, "short_liquidations_24h_usd": null }, "observed_at": "2026-09-07T07:43:52Z", "price": 2484.37, "quality": "GOOD", "returns": { "1h_pct": -0.5356842585697352, "24h_pct": -0.49783922556562166, "4h_pct": -0.5233379914552083, "72h_pct": -0.7997955589983841 }, "source": "binance_spot_and_usdm_public_api", "spread_bps": 0.04025173434565184, "volume": 581721534.214382, "warnings": [ "Public aggregate liquidation totals are unavailable from the selected endpoint; values remain null." ] }, { "age_seconds": 1, "canonical_asset": "SOL", "event_at": "2026-09-07T07:43:52.788Z", "ingested_at": "2026-09-07T07:43:54.087928547Z", "instrument_id": "SOLUSDT", "liquidity_score": 99.04173254755354, "market_state": "OPEN", "metadata": { "price_oi_funding_regime": "ALIGNED_OR_NEUTRAL" }, "metrics": { "basis_spot_perp_pct": -0.08200678485864588, "book_depth_50bps_usd": 3264513.7968400004, "funding_rate": -0.00001766, "intraday_range_pct": 3.388217378890266, "long_liquidations_24h_usd": null, "open_interest_change_24h_pct": -2.530074314919706, "open_interest_contracts": 7989980.67, "realized_vol_annualized_pct": 52.041655090465966, "relative_volume_24h": 1.2670717847285358, "short_liquidations_24h_usd": null }, "observed_at": "2026-09-07T07:43:52.788Z", "price": 104.35, "quality": "GOOD", "returns": { "1h_pct": -0.6947087933003471, "24h_pct": -0.8362634229782451, "4h_pct": -0.5717008099094922, "72h_pct": 0.7239382239382142 }, "source": "binance_spot_and_usdm_public_api", "spread_bps": 0.9582674524464679, "volume": 283530619.84897, "warnings": [ "Public aggregate liquidation totals are unavailable from the selected endpoint; values remain null." ] }, { "age_seconds": 446, "canonical_asset": "TOTAL_CRYPTO", "event_at": "2026-09-07T07:36:28Z", "ingested_at": "2026-09-07T07:43:54.236705174Z", "instrument_id": "TOTAL_CRYPTO_MARKET_CAP", "liquidity_score": null, "market_state": "OPEN", "metrics": { "basket_positive_breadth_pct": 0, "btc_dominance_pct": 59.12378638126328 }, "observed_at": "2026-09-07T07:36:28Z", "price": 2683931868024.5796, "quality": "GOOD", "source": "coingecko_global_api", "spread_bps": null, "volume": null, "warnings": [ "Aggregate market cap has no executable spread or order-book depth." ] } ], "status": "PARTIAL", "warnings": [] }, "futures": { "observations": [ { "age_seconds": 676, "canonical_asset": "COPPER_COMEX", "event_at": "2026-09-07T07:32:36Z", "ingested_at": "2026-09-07T07:43:52.870853358Z", "instrument_id": "HG=F", "liquidity_score": null, "market_state": "OPEN", "metadata": { "exchange": "CMX", "instrument_type": "FUTURE" }, "metrics": { "intraday_range_pct": 1.2959725995630202 }, "observed_at": "2026-09-07T07:32:36Z", "price": 6.682499885559082, "quality": "GOOD", "returns": { "1h_pct": 0.19491733547436496, "24h_pct": 0.12736139427933502, "4h_pct": 0, "72h_pct": 1.4113352431905701 }, "source": "yahoo_finance_chart", "spread_bps": null, "volume": 30324, "warnings": [ "Source does not expose executable spread/depth on this endpoint; those fields remain null." ] }, { "age_seconds": 601, "canonical_asset": "DXY", "event_at": "2026-09-07T07:33:51Z", "ingested_at": "2026-09-07T07:43:52.870037794Z", "instrument_id": "DX-Y.NYB", "liquidity_score": null, "market_state": "OPEN", "metadata": { "exchange": "NYB", "instrument_type": "INDEX" }, "metrics": { "intraday_range_pct": 0.41716532872393636 }, "observed_at": "2026-09-07T07:33:51Z", "price": 99.16500091552734, "quality": "GOOD", "returns": { "1h_pct": -0.029234962338353654, "24h_pct": 0.16363399712449045, "4h_pct": 0.008071275906362807, "72h_pct": -0.49768934866556425 }, "source": "yahoo_finance_chart", "spread_bps": null, "volume": null, "warnings": [ "Source does not expose executable spread/depth on this endpoint; those fields remain null." ] }, { "age_seconds": 601, "canonical_asset": "ES", "event_at": "2026-09-07T07:33:51Z", "ingested_at": "2026-09-07T07:43:52.812798122Z", "instrument_id": "ES=F", "liquidity_score": null, "market_state": "OPEN", "metadata": { "exchange": "CME", "instrument_type": "FUTURE" }, "metrics": { "intraday_range_pct": 0.6799651960942283 }, "observed_at": "2026-09-07T07:33:51Z", "price": 7722, "quality": "GOOD", "returns": { "1h_pct": -0.022657387926849903, "24h_pct": -0.4576216564614932, "4h_pct": -0.11318436115512753, "72h_pct": 0.9774755631109189 }, "source": "yahoo_finance_chart", "spread_bps": null, "volume": 1316687, "warnings": [ "Source does not expose executable spread/depth on this endpoint; those fields remain null." ] }, { "age_seconds": 606, "canonical_asset": "GOLD_COMEX", "event_at": "2026-09-07T07:33:46Z", "ingested_at": "2026-09-07T07:43:52.853610716Z", "instrument_id": "GC=F", "liquidity_score": null, "market_state": "OPEN", "metadata": { "exchange": "CMX", "instrument_type": "FUTURE" }, "metrics": { "intraday_range_pct": 2.783427780540508 }, "observed_at": "2026-09-07T07:33:46Z", "price": 4476.60009765625, "quality": "GOOD", "returns": { "1h_pct": -0.120479748856539, "24h_pct": -0.9492178856897904, "4h_pct": -0.15612453937761117, "72h_pct": 2.042400220110552 }, "source": "yahoo_finance_chart", "spread_bps": null, "volume": 187376, "warnings": [ "Source does not expose executable spread/depth on this endpoint; those fields remain null." ] }, { "age_seconds": 606, "canonical_asset": "NQ", "event_at": "2026-09-07T07:33:46Z", "ingested_at": "2026-09-07T07:43:52.864752169Z", "instrument_id": "NQ=F", "liquidity_score": null, "market_state": "OPEN", "metadata": { "exchange": "CME", "instrument_type": "FUTURE" }, "metrics": { "intraday_range_pct": 0.8009889588836958 }, "observed_at": "2026-09-07T07:33:46Z", "price": 29565.25, "quality": "GOOD", "returns": { "1h_pct": -0.013527566644400135, "24h_pct": 0.13293368556526186, "4h_pct": -0.03634703813902851, "72h_pct": 1.4193094694955555 }, "source": "yahoo_finance_chart", "spread_bps": null, "volume": 489615, "warnings": [ "Source does not expose executable spread/depth on this endpoint; those fields remain null." ] }, { "age_seconds": 606, "canonical_asset": "RTY", "event_at": "2026-09-07T07:33:46Z", "ingested_at": "2026-09-07T07:43:52.861948716Z", "instrument_id": "RTY=F", "liquidity_score": null, "market_state": "OPEN", "metadata": { "exchange": "CME", "instrument_type": "FUTURE" }, "metrics": { "intraday_range_pct": 1.0034700245176482 }, "observed_at": "2026-09-07T07:33:46Z", "price": 2976.60009765625, "quality": "GOOD", "returns": { "1h_pct": 0.026885167517898267, "24h_pct": 0.2289732883130835, "4h_pct": 0.12782725934168404, "72h_pct": 1.704997004028197 }, "source": "yahoo_finance_chart", "spread_bps": null, "volume": 162580, "warnings": [ "Source does not expose executable spread/depth on this endpoint; those fields remain null." ] }, { "age_seconds": 617, "canonical_asset": "SILVER_COMEX", "event_at": "2026-09-07T07:33:35Z", "ingested_at": "2026-09-07T07:43:52.85870822Z", "instrument_id": "SI=F", "liquidity_score": null, "market_state": "OPEN", "metadata": { "exchange": "CMX", "instrument_type": "FUTURE" }, "metrics": { "intraday_range_pct": 3.663950203266036 }, "observed_at": "2026-09-07T07:33:35Z", "price": 66.74800109863281, "quality": "GOOD", "returns": { "1h_pct": -0.13016830557577297, "24h_pct": -1.2018894157843962, "4h_pct": 0.04947127715488886, "72h_pct": 2.66554137545727 }, "source": "yahoo_finance_chart", "spread_bps": null, "volume": 40669, "warnings": [ "Source does not expose executable spread/depth on this endpoint; those fields remain null." ] }, { "age_seconds": 613, "canonical_asset": "US_10Y_NOTE_FUTURE", "event_at": "2026-09-07T07:33:39Z", "ingested_at": "2026-09-07T07:43:52.843344387Z", "instrument_id": "ZN=F", "liquidity_score": null, "market_state": "OPEN", "metadata": { "exchange": "CBT", "instrument_type": "FUTURE" }, "metrics": { "intraday_range_pct": 0.5082776648271856 }, "observed_at": "2026-09-07T07:33:39Z", "price": 107.46875, "quality": "GOOD", "returns": { "1h_pct": -0.029069767441858296, "24h_pct": -0.11617775196050006, "4h_pct": -0.10167029774872383, "72h_pct": 0.04363636363635681 }, "source": "yahoo_finance_chart", "spread_bps": null, "volume": 1793110, "warnings": [ "Source does not expose executable spread/depth on this endpoint; those fields remain null." ] }, { "age_seconds": 613, "canonical_asset": "US_2Y_NOTE_FUTURE", "event_at": "2026-09-07T07:33:39Z", "ingested_at": "2026-09-07T07:43:52.847479687Z", "instrument_id": "ZT=F", "liquidity_score": null, "market_state": "OPEN", "metadata": { "exchange": "CBT", "instrument_type": "FUTURE" }, "metrics": { "intraday_range_pct": 0.1903166869671133 }, "observed_at": "2026-09-07T07:33:39Z", "price": 102.5625, "quality": "GOOD", "returns": { "1h_pct": -0.015232292460010122, "24h_pct": -0.06090133982947776, "4h_pct": -0.02665346685450931, "72h_pct": 0.01142726545537709 }, "source": "yahoo_finance_chart", "spread_bps": null, "volume": 1065835, "warnings": [ "Source does not expose executable spread/depth on this endpoint; those fields remain null." ] }, { "age_seconds": 0, "canonical_asset": "VIX_FUTURE", "ingested_at": "2026-09-07T07:43:52.870900758Z", "instrument_id": "VX=F", "liquidity_score": null, "market_state": "STALE", "metadata": { "attempted_instrument_id": "VX=F", "fallback_used": false, "instrument_type": "continuous_vix_future" }, "observed_at": "2026-09-07T07:43:52.870900758Z", "price": null, "quality": "UNAVAILABLE", "source": "yahoo_finance_chart", "spread_bps": null, "volume": null, "warnings": [ "Yahoo has no supported continuous VIX-futures chart for VX=F; spot VIX was not substituted." ] }, { "age_seconds": 601, "canonical_asset": "WTI", "event_at": "2026-09-07T07:33:51Z", "ingested_at": "2026-09-07T07:43:52.870098634Z", "instrument_id": "CL=F", "liquidity_score": null, "market_state": "OPEN", "metadata": { "exchange": "NYM", "instrument_type": "FUTURE" }, "metrics": { "intraday_range_pct": 3.7634962552131146 }, "observed_at": "2026-09-07T07:33:51Z", "price": 91.4800033569336, "quality": "GOOD", "returns": { "1h_pct": 0.13135151683485446, "24h_pct": -0.21814675782771964, "4h_pct": 0.34002982802940895, "72h_pct": 1.7801581579985903 }, "source": "yahoo_finance_chart", "spread_bps": null, "volume": 250964, "warnings": [ "Source does not expose executable spread/depth on this endpoint; those fields remain null." ] } ], "status": "PARTIAL", "warnings": [] }, "hip3": { "observations": [ { "age_seconds": 1, "canonical_asset": "MSTR_HIP3_PERP", "event_at": "2026-09-07T07:43:53.284Z", "ingested_at": "2026-09-07T07:43:54.786303828Z", "instrument_id": "xyz:MSTR", "liquidity_score": 99.2981224776283, "market_state": "OPEN", "metadata": { "canonical_underlying": "MSTR", "contract": "xyz:MSTR", "deployer": "0x88806a71d74ad0a510b350545c9ae490912f0888", "dex": "xyz", "dex_full_name": "XYZ", "margin_mode": "noCross", "margin_table_id": 10, "max_leverage": 10, "official_reference_state": "CLOSED", "only_isolated": true, "oracle_event_at": null, "oracle_updater": null, "series_role": "builder_perpetual", "set_oracle_subdeployers": [ "0x1234567890545d1df9ee64b35fdd16966e08acec" ], "streaming_oi_cap_usd": "100000000.0" }, "metrics": { "book_depth_50bps_usd": 510389.6019599999, "funding_rate": -0.0002435109, "index_price": null, "long_liquidations_24h_usd": null, "mark_price": 142.48, "mid_price": 142.475, "open_interest_contracts": 301514.84, "oracle_price": 143.8, "premium_vs_last_official_mstr_pct": -0.22409176815062493, "premium_vs_oracle_pct": -0.0092628651, "short_liquidations_24h_usd": null }, "observed_at": "2026-09-07T07:43:53.284Z", "price": 142.48, "quality": "GOOD", "returns": { "1h_pct": -1.3228062885241365, "24h_pct": -1.486551891032295, "4h_pct": -1.2133398044789523, "72h_pct": null }, "source": "hyperliquid_official_info_api", "spread_bps": 0.7018775223717078, "volume": 5397928.5591100035, "warnings": [ "HIP-3 is a builder-operated perpetual, not an official MSTR quotation.", "Hyperliquid metaAndAssetCtxs does not expose the oracle event timestamp; oracle timestamp remains null.", "Aggregate HIP-3 liquidations are not exposed by the selected public snapshot endpoints; values remain null." ] }, { "age_seconds": 215033, "canonical_asset": "MSTR_OFFICIAL", "event_at": "2026-09-04T20:00:01Z", "ingested_at": "2026-09-07T07:43:54.827928986Z", "instrument_id": "MSTR", "liquidity_score": null, "market_state": "CLOSED", "metadata": { "exchange": "NMS", "instrument_type": "EQUITY", "series_role": "official_underlying_reference" }, "metrics": { "intraday_range_pct": 18.44097254368314 }, "observed_at": "2026-09-04T20:00:01Z", "price": 142.8000030517578, "quality": "STALE", "returns": { "1h_pct": -0.7092227927380845, "24h_pct": 11.833346637521736, "4h_pct": 0.6697193566202131, "72h_pct": null }, "source": "yahoo_finance_chart", "spread_bps": null, "volume": 84309866, "warnings": [ "Source does not expose executable spread/depth on this endpoint; those fields remain null.", "Official/reference market is closed; stale close is context only and is excluded from live aggregation.", "This official underlying series remains separate from xyz:MSTR HIP-3." ] } ], "status": "PARTIAL", "warnings": [] }, "metals": { "observations": [ { "age_seconds": 0, "canonical_asset": "PAXG", "event_at": "2026-09-07T07:43:52.943Z", "ingested_at": "2026-09-07T07:43:53.515019942Z", "instrument_id": "PAXG-USDT", "liquidity_score": 98.75201933201151, "market_state": "OPEN", "metrics": { "book_depth_50bps_usd": 39047.793083, "intraday_range_pct": 1.0670476689981918, "premium_vs_comex_front_month_pct": -1.8960839879507918, "premium_vs_xau_spot_pct": -0.054165766525959835, "xaut_paxg_divergence_pct": -0.039620012204799604, "xaut_paxg_xau_divergence_pct": 0.09376431824745213 }, "observed_at": "2026-09-07T07:43:52.943Z", "price": 4391.72, "quality": "GOOD", "returns": { "1h_pct": -0.023220131398615784, "24h_pct": null, "4h_pct": -0.21720953904317275, "72h_pct": null }, "source": "kucoin_official_spot_api", "spread_bps": 0.022770147881222436, "volume": 1004846.595326, "warnings": [] }, { "age_seconds": 0, "canonical_asset": "XAUT", "event_at": "2026-09-07T07:43:53.014Z", "ingested_at": "2026-09-07T07:43:53.511152043Z", "instrument_id": "XAUT-USDT", "liquidity_score": 98.89013732160359, "market_state": "OPEN", "metrics": { "book_depth_50bps_usd": 43415.162098, "intraday_range_pct": 0.9439771091210538, "premium_vs_comex_front_month_pct": -1.9349527714481507, "premium_vs_xau_spot_pct": -0.0937643182474468, "xaut_paxg_divergence_pct": -0.039620012204799604, "xaut_paxg_xau_divergence_pct": 0.09376431824745213 }, "observed_at": "2026-09-07T07:43:53.014Z", "price": 4389.98, "quality": "GOOD", "returns": { "1h_pct": 0.018682390252333647, "24h_pct": null, "4h_pct": -0.21457373926564438, "72h_pct": null }, "source": "kucoin_official_spot_api", "spread_bps": 0.022786959021775865, "volume": 791935.873714, "warnings": [] }, { "age_seconds": 17, "canonical_asset": "XAU_USD_SPOT", "event_at": "2026-09-07T07:43:35.905Z", "ingested_at": "2026-09-07T07:43:53.704970525Z", "instrument_id": "XAU-USD-SPOT", "liquidity_score": null, "market_state": "OPEN", "metadata": { "provider_source": "upstream", "provider_state": "fresh", "unit": "USD per troy ounce" }, "metrics": { "xaut_paxg_xau_divergence_pct": 0.09376431824745213 }, "observed_at": "2026-09-07T07:43:35.905Z", "price": 4394.100098, "quality": "THIN", "source": "xaus_public_spot_api", "spread_bps": null, "volume": null, "warnings": [ "XAU/USD is an indicative mid-market spot reference, not an executable venue; spread, depth and volume remain null." ] }, { "age_seconds": 607, "canonical_asset": "COMEX_GOLD_FRONT_MONTH", "event_at": "2026-09-07T07:33:46Z", "ingested_at": "2026-09-07T07:43:53.712895323Z", "instrument_id": "GC=F", "liquidity_score": null, "market_state": "OPEN", "metadata": { "exchange": "CMX", "instrument_type": "FUTURE" }, "metrics": { "intraday_range_pct": 2.783427780540508 }, "observed_at": "2026-09-07T07:33:46Z", "price": 4476.60009765625, "quality": "GOOD", "returns": { "1h_pct": -0.120479748856539, "24h_pct": -0.9492178856897904, "4h_pct": -0.15612453937761117, "72h_pct": 2.042400220110552 }, "source": "yahoo_finance_chart_comex_proxy", "spread_bps": null, "volume": 187376, "warnings": [ "Source does not expose executable spread/depth on this endpoint; those fields remain null.", "GC=F is a COMEX futures proxy, not XAU/USD spot; token premiums are not labelled as XAU spot premiums." ] } ], "status": "PARTIAL", "warnings": [] }, "predictions": { "observations": [ { "age_seconds": 0, "canonical_asset": "PREDICTION_MARKET", "event_at": "2026-09-07T07:39:04.547116Z", "ingested_at": "2026-09-07T07:43:52.779413643Z", "instrument_id": "0xac02cbb049e46d6a3627c0fdf52fa554982a9025d45968207b362acb6ca4b830", "liquidity_score": 65, "market_state": "OPEN", "metadata": { "ask": 0.004, "bid": 0.003, "clob_token_ids": [ "57748138085022719760345772310040703848567377822400132842014290209986511882046", "28239418772633645184924651434956000849078365566842629564562475378531350731731" ], "condition_id": "0xac02cbb049e46d6a3627c0fdf52fa554982a9025d45968207b362acb6ca4b830", "contradictory_market_ids": [], "end_date": "2026-09-16T00:00:00Z", "market_id": "2252243", "no_probability": 0.9965, "open_interest": null, "outcomes": [ "Yes", "No" ], "price_change_1h": null, "price_change_24h": null, "price_change_7d": -0.004, "question": "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?", "related_market_ids": [], "relevance_method": "exact word/phrase match in question; description-only matches are ineligible", "relevance_score": 75, "relevance_taxonomy": [ "monetary_policy" ], "reliability_method": "liquidity+24h_volume+spread+resolution completeness; deterministic, no LLM", "reliability_score": 65, "resolution_rules": "The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.\n\nThis market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.\n\nIf the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.\n\nThe level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the \"No change\" bracket.", "resolution_source": "", "transaction_count": null, "yes_probability": 0.0035 }, "metrics": { "liquidity_usd": 2917820.27022, "open_interest_usd": null, "volume_24h_usd": 537416.603995 }, "observed_at": "2026-09-07T07:43:52.779413643Z", "price": 0.0035, "quality": "GOOD", "returns": { "1h_probability_points": null, "24h_probability_points": null, "7d_probability_points": -0.004 }, "source": "polymarket_gamma_public_api", "spread_bps": 2857.142857142857, "volume": 31193042.287317004, "warnings": [] }, { "age_seconds": 0, "canonical_asset": "PREDICTION_MARKET", "event_at": "2026-09-07T07:39:04.547116Z", "ingested_at": "2026-09-07T07:43:52.779591404Z", "instrument_id": "0x5e464d85eb49f22d876f3ed6168a7db5e2288e9ae1eb91effd2758e994676f86", "liquidity_score": 65, "market_state": "OPEN", "metadata": { "ask": 0.002, "bid": 0.001, "clob_token_ids": [ "97186030785608128217926542396950266594898339988989015155120280107165449433603", "81470465080656150088482886298356783621062802919110096763062861781139262816347" ], "condition_id": "0x5e464d85eb49f22d876f3ed6168a7db5e2288e9ae1eb91effd2758e994676f86", "contradictory_market_ids": [], "end_date": "2026-09-16T00:00:00Z", "market_id": "2252242", "no_probability": 0.9985, "open_interest": null, "outcomes": [ "Yes", "No" ], "price_change_1h": null, "price_change_24h": null, "price_change_7d": -0.001, "question": "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?", "related_market_ids": [], "relevance_method": "exact word/phrase match in question; description-only matches are ineligible", "relevance_score": 75, "relevance_taxonomy": [ "monetary_policy" ], "reliability_method": "liquidity+24h_volume+spread+resolution completeness; deterministic, no LLM", "reliability_score": 65, "resolution_rules": "The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.\n\nThis market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.\n\nIf the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.\n\nThe level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the \"No change\" bracket.", "resolution_source": "", "transaction_count": null, "yes_probability": 0.0015 }, "metrics": { "liquidity_usd": 774652.19538, "open_interest_usd": null, "volume_24h_usd": 386163.7179999999 }, "observed_at": "2026-09-07T07:43:52.779591404Z", "price": 0.0015, "quality": "GOOD", "returns": { "1h_probability_points": null, "24h_probability_points": null, "7d_probability_points": -0.001 }, "source": "polymarket_gamma_public_api", "spread_bps": 6666.666666666666, "volume": 13532316.831784992, "warnings": [] }, { "age_seconds": 0, "canonical_asset": "PREDICTION_MARKET", "event_at": "2026-09-07T07:39:04.547116Z", "ingested_at": "2026-09-07T07:43:52.779707364Z", "instrument_id": "0xa3b36b2d6104d34af4e6c6215fc818e43352e78a748fbfb0b85e3a35f71dec9a", "liquidity_score": 87.57281553398059, "market_state": "OPEN", "metadata": { "ask": 0.52, "bid": 0.51, "clob_token_ids": [ "5615282760875985231868508008056959876238536896643315063916840237042205273721", "97050921740416192996389806693742575608111328819185493163189880975611314813724" ], "condition_id": "0xa3b36b2d6104d34af4e6c6215fc818e43352e78a748fbfb0b85e3a35f71dec9a", "contradictory_market_ids": [], "end_date": "2026-09-16T00:00:00Z", "market_id": "2252244", "no_probability": 0.485, "open_interest": null, "outcomes": [ "Yes", "No" ], "price_change_1h": null, "price_change_24h": 0.02, "price_change_7d": 0.04, "question": "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?", "related_market_ids": [], "relevance_method": "exact word/phrase match in question; description-only matches are ineligible", "relevance_score": 75, "relevance_taxonomy": [ "monetary_policy" ], "reliability_method": "liquidity+24h_volume+spread+resolution completeness; deterministic, no LLM", "reliability_score": 87.57281553398059, "resolution_rules": "The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.\n\nThis market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.\n\nIf the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.\n\nThe level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the \"No change\" bracket.", "resolution_source": "", "transaction_count": null, "yes_probability": 0.515 }, "metrics": { "liquidity_usd": 646010.83, "open_interest_usd": null, "volume_24h_usd": 324830.520049 }, "observed_at": "2026-09-07T07:43:52.779707364Z", "price": 0.515, "quality": "GOOD", "returns": { "1h_probability_points": null, "24h_probability_points": 0.02, "7d_probability_points": 0.04 }, "source": "polymarket_gamma_public_api", "spread_bps": 194.17475728155355, "volume": 23517567.95567821, "warnings": [] }, { "age_seconds": 0, "canonical_asset": "PREDICTION_MARKET", "event_at": "2026-09-07T07:39:04.547116Z", "ingested_at": "2026-09-07T07:43:52.779960566Z", "instrument_id": "0x876506d8b2bd7a0d3fa4fe18c024eee6e1dd81ee24c26795dadd6cfe4a7b5d0d", "liquidity_score": 87.42268041237114, "market_state": "OPEN", "metadata": { "ask": 0.49, "bid": 0.48, "clob_token_ids": [ "63842529068710005716169325380315470359047749786610778647370693404952498013178", "2881957189963819690709899387312951271986076905757701114514025622922000576600" ], "condition_id": "0x876506d8b2bd7a0d3fa4fe18c024eee6e1dd81ee24c26795dadd6cfe4a7b5d0d", "contradictory_market_ids": [], "end_date": "2026-09-16T00:00:00Z", "market_id": "2252245", "no_probability": 0.515, "open_interest": null, "outcomes": [ "Yes", "No" ], "price_change_1h": null, "price_change_24h": -0.01, "price_change_7d": -0.03, "question": "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?", "related_market_ids": [], "relevance_method": "exact word/phrase match in question; description-only matches are ineligible", "relevance_score": 75, "relevance_taxonomy": [ "monetary_policy" ], "reliability_method": "liquidity+24h_volume+spread+resolution completeness; deterministic, no LLM", "reliability_score": 87.42268041237114, "resolution_rules": "The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.\n\nThis market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.\n\nIf the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.\n\nThe level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the \"No change\" bracket.", "resolution_source": "", "transaction_count": null, "yes_probability": 0.485 }, "metrics": { "liquidity_usd": 647435.2733, "open_interest_usd": null, "volume_24h_usd": 240287.63246400002 }, "observed_at": "2026-09-07T07:43:52.779960566Z", "price": 0.485, "quality": "GOOD", "returns": { "1h_probability_points": null, "24h_probability_points": -0.01, "7d_probability_points": -0.03 }, "source": "polymarket_gamma_public_api", "spread_bps": 206.18556701030948, "volume": 18773680.267137054, "warnings": [] }, { "age_seconds": 0, "canonical_asset": "PREDICTION_MARKET", "event_at": "2026-09-07T07:39:04.547116Z", "ingested_at": "2026-09-07T07:43:52.780048766Z", "instrument_id": "0x2e4b58fc18dbffd74d5275d89fb076943f21992763c45dcadd81391b83bde13c", "liquidity_score": 67.27272727272728, "market_state": "OPEN", "metadata": { "ask": 0.006, "bid": 0.005, "clob_token_ids": [ "88912926533493988427719291698947688154042720958310632316541141466409683822293", "74195220586129237349258803179082634542284503538320000637909015632982564961602" ], "condition_id": "0x2e4b58fc18dbffd74d5275d89fb076943f21992763c45dcadd81391b83bde13c", "contradictory_market_ids": [], "end_date": "2026-09-16T00:00:00Z", "market_id": "2252246", "no_probability": 0.9945, "open_interest": null, "outcomes": [ "Yes", "No" ], "price_change_1h": null, "price_change_24h": null, "price_change_7d": -0.001, "question": "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?", "related_market_ids": [], "relevance_method": "exact word/phrase match in question; description-only matches are ineligible", "relevance_score": 75, "relevance_taxonomy": [ "monetary_policy" ], "reliability_method": "liquidity+24h_volume+spread+resolution completeness; deterministic, no LLM", "reliability_score": 67.27272727272728, "resolution_rules": "The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.\n\nThis market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.\n\nIf the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.\n\nThe level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the \"No change\" bracket.", "resolution_source": "", "transaction_count": null, "yes_probability": 0.0055 }, "metrics": { "liquidity_usd": 1123693.46145, "open_interest_usd": null, "volume_24h_usd": 230496.856661 }, "observed_at": "2026-09-07T07:43:52.780048766Z", "price": 0.0055, "quality": "GOOD", "returns": { "1h_probability_points": null, "24h_probability_points": null, "7d_probability_points": -0.001 }, "source": "polymarket_gamma_public_api", "spread_bps": 1818.1818181818182, "volume": 13697862.33024102, "warnings": [] }, { "age_seconds": 0, "canonical_asset": "PREDICTION_MARKET", "event_at": "2026-09-07T07:39:04.547116Z", "ingested_at": "2026-09-07T07:43:52.782007655Z", "instrument_id": "0x524ce344b80a160c237d91a33efdd8b82468b0dc0d33f60d500f8bf69b80b8bb", "liquidity_score": 86.35802959961526, "market_state": "OPEN", "metadata": { "ask": 0.85, "bid": 0.84, "clob_token_ids": [ "110124369154659006328320349797831539154282530245624469518430389053088403535939", "27584284826455438094347446510379196256289720442108190871721085592324191711749" ], "condition_id": "0x524ce344b80a160c237d91a33efdd8b82468b0dc0d33f60d500f8bf69b80b8bb", "contradictory_market_ids": [], "end_date": "2026-09-30T20:29:00Z", "market_id": "3399458", "no_probability": 0.155, "open_interest": null, "outcomes": [ "Yes", "No" ], "price_change_1h": null, "price_change_24h": -0.01, "price_change_7d": -0.01, "question": "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?", "related_market_ids": [], "relevance_method": "exact word/phrase match in question; description-only matches are ineligible", "relevance_score": 75, "relevance_taxonomy": [ "geopolitics" ], "reliability_method": "liquidity+24h_volume+spread+resolution completeness; deterministic, no LLM", "reliability_score": 86.35802959961526, "resolution_rules": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nA state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST.\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:\nMunitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nAny munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israel or Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.\n\nA military action will be considered to impact Israel or Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Israel or Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IRST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting.", "resolution_source": "", "transaction_count": null, "yes_probability": 0.845 }, "metrics": { "liquidity_usd": 60775.9777, "open_interest_usd": null, "volume_24h_usd": 100624.27645100003 }, "observed_at": "2026-09-07T07:43:52.782007655Z", "price": 0.845, "quality": "GOOD", "returns": { "1h_probability_points": null, "24h_probability_points": -0.01, "7d_probability_points": -0.01 }, "source": "polymarket_gamma_public_api", "spread_bps": 118.34319526627229, "volume": 1298443.517351001, "warnings": [] }, { "age_seconds": 0, "canonical_asset": "PREDICTION_MARKET", "event_at": "2026-09-07T07:39:04.547116Z", "ingested_at": "2026-09-07T07:43:52.786725158Z", "instrument_id": "0x5c19f205507ce03ff5f3be08a8090a5969ea6870cc07b902a4ca2e61dfe48fdd", "liquidity_score": 79.58333333333334, "market_state": "OPEN", "metadata": { "ask": 0.25, "bid": 0.23, "clob_token_ids": [ "99878393523957043401217108863095556720659532630565063651671026144852955005052", "69565284411089708271128692790745152090129066525382935764397092493923596997488" ], "condition_id": "0x5c19f205507ce03ff5f3be08a8090a5969ea6870cc07b902a4ca2e61dfe48fdd", "contradictory_market_ids": [], "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z", "market_id": "2243897", "no_probability": 0.76, "open_interest": null, "outcomes": [ "Yes", "No" ], "price_change_1h": -0.005, "price_change_24h": -0.015, "price_change_7d": 0.05, "question": "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?", "related_market_ids": [], "relevance_method": "exact word/phrase match in question; description-only matches are ineligible", "relevance_score": 75, "relevance_taxonomy": [ "geopolitics" ], "reliability_method": "liquidity+24h_volume+spread+resolution completeness; deterministic, no LLM", "reliability_score": 79.58333333333334, "resolution_rules": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.\n\nA broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.\n\nAny form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.\n\nOnly agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.\n\nIf a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.\n\nThe primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.", "resolution_source": "", "transaction_count": null, "yes_probability": 0.24 }, "metrics": { "liquidity_usd": 115997.8648, "open_interest_usd": null, "volume_24h_usd": 51488.59275 }, "observed_at": "2026-09-07T07:43:52.786725158Z", "price": 0.24, "quality": "GOOD", "returns": { "1h_probability_points": -0.005, "24h_probability_points": -0.015, "7d_probability_points": 0.05 }, "source": "polymarket_gamma_public_api", "spread_bps": 833.333333333333, "volume": 2567782.406962999, "warnings": [] } ], "status": "FULL", "warnings": [] } }, "generated_at": "2026-09-07T07:43:52.708561706Z", "lookback": "24h", "server_version": "06e115d7", "snapshot_id": "20260907T0743Z-e6249775eedf", "snapshot_mode": "LIVE_CAPTURE", "status": "partial", "symbol_impacts": [ { "confidence": 0, "direction": "UNCERTAIN", "eligibility_checks": { "btc_correlation_abs_gte_0_5": true, "btc_link_available": true, "btc_move_abs_gte_1pct": false, "btc_quality_good": true, "supported_symbol_proxy": true }, "evidence": [ "BTC/COIN 60d correlation 0.74, beta 1.47 (61 observations)", "BTC 24h -0.70%" ], "rejection_reason": "BTC_MOVE_BELOW_1PCT_DIRECTIONAL_GATE", "symbol": "COIN" }, { "confidence": 0, "direction": "UNCERTAIN", "eligibility_checks": { "supported_symbol_proxy": true }, "evidence": [ "No fresh liquid off-hours proxy passed deterministic eligibility rules." ], "rejection_reason": "TOKENIZED_GOLD_CONFIRMATION_GATE_NOT_MET", "symbol": "EQX" }, { "confidence": 0, "direction": "UNCERTAIN", "eligibility_checks": { "btc_correlation_abs_gte_0_5": false, "btc_link_available": true, "btc_move_abs_gte_1pct": false, "btc_quality_good": true, "supported_symbol_proxy": true }, "evidence": [ "BTC/HUT 60d correlation 0.12, beta 0.35 (61 observations)", "BTC 24h -0.70%" ], "rejection_reason": "BTC_CORRELATION_BELOW_0_5_GATE", "symbol": "HUT" }, { "confidence": 0, "direction": "UNCERTAIN", "eligibility_checks": { "btc_correlation_abs_gte_0_5": false, "btc_link_available": true, "btc_move_abs_gte_1pct": false, "btc_quality_good": true, "supported_symbol_proxy": true }, "evidence": [ "BTC/IREN 60d correlation 0.20, beta 0.65 (61 observations)", "BTC 24h -0.70%" ], "rejection_reason": "BTC_CORRELATION_BELOW_0_5_GATE", "symbol": "IREN" }, { "confidence": 0.45, "direction": "NEGATIVE", "eligibility_checks": { "btc_correlation_abs_gte_0_5": true, "btc_link_available": true, "btc_move_abs_gte_1pct": false, "btc_quality_good": true, "hip3_quality_good": true, "supported_symbol_proxy": true }, "evidence": [ "xyz:MSTR 1h -1.32% (builder perp, separate from official)", "BTC/MSTR 60d correlation 0.75, beta 1.86 (61 observations)", "BTC 24h -0.70%" ], "symbol": "MSTR" }, { "confidence": 0, "direction": "UNCERTAIN", "eligibility_checks": { "supported_symbol_proxy": true }, "evidence": [ "No fresh liquid off-hours proxy passed deterministic eligibility rules." ], "rejection_reason": "TOKENIZED_GOLD_CONFIRMATION_GATE_NOT_MET", "symbol": "PAAS" } ], "trace_id": "trace-f4e5e328-ad2d-4bb4-86a7-315d0257418a", "verdict": "INCONCLUSIVE", "warnings": [ "24/7 markets are contextual signals; this output does not claim they predict the next US cash open." ] }