{ "ticker": "HOOD", "reference_close": "2026-09-25", "analysis_path": "data/analyses-data/HOOD.json", "analysis_sha256": "939104e7da535ec1b7ccc8d84cb07485fcb97e39c7edb96fdbaacd5081e9c356", "claims": [ { "path": "meta.date", "value": "2026-09-25", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/meta.date" }, { "path": "meta.dateDisplay", "value": "25 septembre 2026", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/meta.dateDisplay" }, { "path": "meta.version", "value": 3, "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/values/meta/version" }, { "path": "meta.levelsCloseDate", "value": "2026-09-25", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/meta.levelsCloseDate" }, { "path": "meta.description", "value": "Robinhood Markets : revenus du deuxième trimestre de 1,308 Md$ (+32 %), bénéfice net de 573 M$, 28,4 millions de comptes financés. Titre payé plus de cinquante fois le bénéfice, en consolidation sous son sommet du 23 septembre. Dossier au close du 25 septembre 2026, statut surveiller.", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/meta.description" }, { "path": "meta.ogDescription", "value": "Robinhood : revenus +32 %, contrats événementiels ×10 ; titre à 119,40 $, environ 6 % sous son sommet du 23 septembre, payé plus de cinquante fois le bénéfice ; niveaux à surveiller.", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/meta.ogDescription" }, { "path": "meta.lastMcpRefresh", "value": "2026-09-28T11:59:46.398711406Z", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/meta.lastMcpRefresh" }, { "path": "meta.levelsVerifiedAt", "value": "2026-09-28T11:59:46.398711406Z", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/meta.levelsVerifiedAt" }, { "path": "meta.statusHistory.0.at", "value": "2026-09-28T11:59:46.398711406Z", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/meta.statusHistory.0.at" }, { "path": "meta.statusHistory.0.note", "value": "refonte v3 du 25 septembre : clôture de référence 2026-09-25, consolidation sous le sommet du 23 septembre, seize comparables propres pré-vérifiés", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/meta.statusHistory.0.note" }, { "path": "meta.statusHistory.0.close", "value": 119.4, "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/values/meta/statusHistory/0/close" }, { "path": "header.price", "value": 119.4, "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/values/header/price" }, { "path": "header.changePct", "value": -1.1753021023009347, "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/values/header/changePct" }, { "path": "header.badges.0.text", "value": "SURVEILLER — ACTIVATION AU-DESSUS DU SOMMET DU 23 SEPTEMBRE", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/header.badges.0.text" }, { "path": "header.metrics.marketCap", "value": "107 Md$", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/header.metrics.marketCap" }, { "path": "header.metrics.volume", "value": "13,89 M", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/header.metrics.volume" }, { "path": "header.metrics.evEbitda", "value": "41,6×", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/header.metrics.evEbitda" }, { "path": "verdict.score", "value": 64, "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/values/verdict/score" }, { "path": "verdict.confidence", "value": "Score éditorial non prédictif. Les chiffres d’entreprise viennent des dépôts SEC et des données XBRL officielles ; les niveaux, du close certifié du 25 septembre.", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/verdict.confidence" }, { "path": "verdict.summary", "value": "Robinhood a publié le 29 juillet un deuxième trimestre de 1,308 Md$ de revenus nets (+32 %), 573 M$ de bénéfice net et 0,62 $ de bénéfice dilué par action, pour un EBITDA ajusté non-GAAP de 741 M$. Le moteur est le trading : 776 M$ de revenus de transaction (+44 %), tirés par les contrats événementiels, multipliés par dix à 156 M$, et les options à 342 M$ ; la crypto recule de 38 %, à 100 M$. Les revenus d’intérêt nets ajoutent 389 M$, les comptes financés atteignent 28,4 millions et les dépôts nets un record de 22 Md$. Le titre a clôturé à 119,40 $ le 25 septembre, −1,2 % sur la séance, après un sommet à 126,74 $ le 23, qu’il reste environ 5,8 % sous. À 41,6 fois l’EBITDA GAAP, 52 fois le bénéfice et 11,3 fois les capitaux propres, Robinhood se paie au-dessus des bourses cotées (Nasdaq à 18,2×, Moody’s à 21,6×) et sous Coinbase (71,7×) : le marché price une croissance qui suppose que les volumes tiennent. Rothschild vise 85 $, sous le cours, avec une opinion vendeuse. Le plan est en attente : signal utile, une clôture au-dessus de 126,74 $.", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/verdict.summary" }, { "path": "verdict.whyBuy.0", "value": "Revenus nets du deuxième trimestre de 1,308 Md$ (+32 %) et bénéfice net de 573 M$, dont 129 M$ de gains de déconsolidation.", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/verdict.whyBuy.0" }, { "path": "verdict.whyBuy.1", "value": "Diversification des revenus de transaction : contrats événementiels ×10 à 156 M$, options 342 M$ (+29 %), actions 129 M$ (+95 %), qui compensent une crypto en repli.", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/verdict.whyBuy.1" }, { "path": "verdict.whyBuy.2", "value": "28,4 millions de comptes financés, 4,8 millions d’abonnés Gold et 22 Md$ de dépôts nets record : la base de clients et d’actifs continue de grossir.", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/verdict.whyBuy.2" }, { "path": "verdict.whyBuy.3", "value": "Bilan sans dette nette : 5,36 Md$ de liquidités contre 2,17 Md$ de billets convertibles, et un programme de rachat d’actions actif.", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/verdict.whyBuy.3" }, { "path": "verdict.whyAvoid.0", "value": "Le titre se paie 52 fois le bénéfice et 41,6 fois l’EBITDA : une bonne partie de la croissance est déjà dans le prix.", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/verdict.whyAvoid.0" }, { "path": "verdict.whyAvoid.3", "value": "Un analyste (Rothschild) vise 85 $, soit environ 29 % sous le cours : le consensus n’est pas unanimement acheteur.", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/verdict.whyAvoid.3" }, { "path": "verdict.controlChecklist.0.evidence", "value": "Série quotidienne certifiée au close du 25 septembre, géométrie et continuité vérifiées barre par barre.", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/verdict.controlChecklist.0.evidence" }, { "path": "verdict.controlChecklist.1.evidence", "value": "Le deuxième trimestre a été publié le 29 juillet ; le calendrier de marché place le troisième trimestre vers le 4 novembre, non confirmé ici par l’émetteur, au-delà de l’horizon du plan.", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/verdict.controlChecklist.1.evidence" }, { "path": "verdict.controlChecklist.2.statusLabel", "value": "52× le bénéfice", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/verdict.controlChecklist.2.statusLabel" }, { "path": "verdict.controlChecklist.2.evidence", "value": "À 41,6× l’EBITDA et 52× le bénéfice, la marge d’erreur est faible : tout ralentissement des volumes se paie cher.", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/verdict.controlChecklist.2.evidence" }, { "path": "business.overview", "value": "

Robinhood est un courtier de détail qui gagne de l’argent de trois façons. Les revenus de transaction, 776 M$ au deuxième trimestre (+44 %), viennent du routage rémunéré des ordres — le paiement pour flux d’ordres, ou PFOF — sur les options (342 M$), les actions (129 M$), la crypto (100 M$) et, désormais, les contrats événementiels (156 M$, multipliés par dix). Les revenus d’intérêt nets, 389 M$ (+9 %), proviennent des soldes de trésorerie des clients, des prêts sur marge et du prêt de titres. Les autres revenus, dont les abonnements Robinhood Gold, complètent le total net de 1,308 Md$.

Le deuxième trimestre a porté le bénéfice net à 573 M$ et le bénéfice dilué à 0,62 $, avec un EBITDA ajusté non-GAAP de 741 M$. Le bénéfice inclut 129 M$ de gains liés à la déconsolidation de Robinhood Ventures. Sur douze mois glissants, les revenus GAAP atteignent 4,93 Md$ et le bénéfice net 2,07 Md$.

Le nombre de comptes financés atteint 28,4 millions (+7 %), les abonnés Gold 4,8 millions et les dépôts nets un record de 22 Md$ sur le trimestre. Le modèle est cyclique : quand les marchés montent et que les particuliers tradent, les trois moteurs tournent ensemble ; quand l’appétit retombe, les revenus de transaction et d’intérêt baissent de concert. La gouvernance est verrouillée par une structure à deux classes d’actions : l’action B porte dix voix, et les fondateurs et leurs affiliés en détiennent la totalité, gardant le contrôle des votes.

", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/business.overview" }, { "path": "business.segments.0.revenue", "value": "776 M$ au deuxième trimestre", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/business.segments.0.revenue" }, { "path": "business.segments.0.pct", "value": "59 % des revenus nets", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/business.segments.0.pct" }, { "path": "business.segments.0.description", "value": "Options 342 M$, contrats événementiels 156 M$ (×10), actions 129 M$, crypto 100 M$ (−38 %).", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/business.segments.0.description" }, { "path": "business.segments.1.revenue", "value": "389 M$ au deuxième trimestre", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/business.segments.1.revenue" }, { "path": "business.segments.1.pct", "value": "30 % des revenus nets", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/business.segments.1.pct" }, { "path": "business.segments.2.revenue", "value": "Solde vers 1,308 Md$", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/business.segments.2.revenue" }, { "path": "business.segments.2.pct", "value": "11 % des revenus nets", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/business.segments.2.pct" }, { "path": "business.sourceRefs.0.name", "value": "Robinhood Markets 8-K / Exhibit 99.1", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/business.sourceRefs.0.name" }, { "path": "business.sourceRefs.0.url", "value": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1783879/000178387926000113/q22026robinhoodexhibit991.htm", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/business.sourceRefs.0.url" }, { "path": "business.sourceRefs.0.date", "value": "2026-07-29", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/business.sourceRefs.0.date" }, { "path": "business.sourceRefs.1.name", "value": "Robinhood Markets 10-K", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/business.sourceRefs.1.name" }, { "path": "business.sourceRefs.1.url", "value": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1783879/000178387926000023/hood-20251231.htm", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/business.sourceRefs.1.url" }, { "path": "business.sourceRefs.1.date", "value": "2026-02-18", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/business.sourceRefs.1.date" }, { "path": "business.sourceRefs.2.name", "value": "Robinhood Markets 10-Q", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/business.sourceRefs.2.name" }, { "path": "business.sourceRefs.2.url", "value": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1783879/000178387926000114/hood-20260630.htm", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/business.sourceRefs.2.url" }, { "path": "business.sourceRefs.2.date", "value": "2026-07-30", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/business.sourceRefs.2.date" }, { "path": "business.coverageMatrix.1.decision", "value": "Communiqué du 29 juillet et 10-Q du deuxième trimestre ; date du troisième trimestre non annoncée par l’émetteur.", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/business.coverageMatrix.1.decision" }, { "path": "business.coverageMatrix.2.decision", "value": "Actions A et B, billets convertibles, bons de souscription et rachats lus dans le 10-Q ; aucun dépôt de dilution récent.", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/business.coverageMatrix.2.decision" }, { "path": "business.coverageMatrix.3.decision", "value": "Douze mois glissants au 30 juin 2026, reconstitués depuis les données XBRL officielles.", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/business.coverageMatrix.3.decision" }, { "path": "business.coverageMatrix.6.decision", "value": "Chaîne relevée le 28 septembre, échéance courte, non rattachée à la clôture de référence ; positionnement indicatif seulement.", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/business.coverageMatrix.6.decision" }, { "path": "news.0.date", "value": "2026-09-03", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/news.0.date" }, { "path": "news.0.title", "value": "Bond de 16,6 % en une séance", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/news.0.title" }, { "path": "news.0.detail", "value": "Le 3 septembre, le titre ouvre à 113,80 $, 6,4 % au-dessus de la clôture de la veille, 106,99 $, et clôture à 124,72 $ (+16,57 %) sur un volume de 52 millions de titres, le plus fort de la fenêtre. Coinbase fait +10,14 % et le panier de courtiers IAI +3,79 % la même séance : le mouvement est en grande partie propre à Robinhood ; aucun dépôt ouvert ici n’en donne la cause précise.", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/news.0.detail" }, { "path": "news.1.date", "value": "2026-09-16", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/news.1.date" }, { "path": "news.1.title", "value": "Repli à 101,70 $ puis rebond", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/news.1.title" }, { "path": "news.1.detail", "value": "Le 16 septembre, le titre enfonce un plus bas à 101,70 $ avant de clôturer à 104,42 $, point bas de la consolidation en cours. Coinbase recule de 4,4 % le même jour : la faiblesse est partagée avec la crypto. Ce plancher sert de bas du couloir et d’invalidation du scénario.", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/news.1.detail" }, { "path": "news.2.date", "value": "2026-09-18", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/news.2.date" }, { "path": "news.2.title", "value": "Rebond de 9,1 % après les propos du dirigeant", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/news.2.title" }, { "path": "news.2.detail", "value": "Le 18 septembre, le titre gagne 9,1 %, à 119,82 $. Le même jour, le directeur général Vlad Tenev décrit, sur CNBC, une stratégie d’usage du trading comme canal d’acquisition vers la gestion de patrimoine (Insider Monkey). Le titre remonte ensuite vers son sommet du 23.", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/news.2.detail" }, { "path": "news.3.date", "value": "2026-09-28", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/news.3.date" }, { "path": "news.3.title", "value": "Rothschild maintient une opinion vendeuse, objectif relevé à 85 $", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/news.3.title" }, { "path": "news.3.detail", "value": "Le 28 septembre, Rothschild & Co Redburn relève son objectif de 80 à 85 $ tout en gardant une recommandation « vendre » (MT Newswires) — soit environ 29 % sous la clôture du 25. Le même flux relaie une note constructive de Morgan Stanley avant le « September Summit » de Robinhood et un dossier de valorisation prudent (TIKR). Le consensus reste partagé.", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/news.3.detail" }, { "path": "fundamentals.rows.0.metric", "value": "Revenus nets du deuxième trimestre 2026", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.rows.0.metric" }, { "path": "fundamentals.rows.0.value", "value": "1,308 Md$", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.rows.0.value" }, { "path": "fundamentals.rows.0.signal", "value": "+32 % sur un an, communiqué du 29 juillet", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.rows.0.signal" }, { "path": "fundamentals.rows.1.value", "value": "28,4 millions", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.rows.1.value" }, { "path": "fundamentals.rows.1.signal", "value": "+7 % sur un an ; 4,8 millions d’abonnés Gold, 22 Md$ de dépôts nets record", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.rows.1.signal" }, { "path": "fundamentals.rows.2.value", "value": "4,93 Md$", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.rows.2.value" }, { "path": "fundamentals.rows.2.signal", "value": "Douze mois glissants au 30 juin 2026 (XBRL SEC)", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.rows.2.signal" }, { "path": "fundamentals.rows.3.metric", "value": "Bénéfice net du deuxième trimestre 2026", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.rows.3.metric" }, { "path": "fundamentals.rows.3.value", "value": "573 M$", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.rows.3.value" }, { "path": "fundamentals.rows.3.signal", "value": "+48 % sur un an, dont 129 M$ de gains de déconsolidation ; BPA dilué 0,62 $", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.rows.3.signal" }, { "path": "fundamentals.rows.4.value", "value": "2,07 Md$", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.rows.4.value" }, { "path": "fundamentals.rows.4.signal", "value": "Douze mois glissants au 30 juin 2026 ; marge nette de 42 %", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.rows.4.signal" }, { "path": "fundamentals.rows.5.value", "value": "2,42 Md$", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.rows.5.value" }, { "path": "fundamentals.rows.5.signal", "value": "Proxy du résultat opérationnel (pas de ligne d’exploitation us-gaap pour un courtier), douze mois au 30 juin 2026", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.rows.5.signal" }, { "path": "fundamentals.rows.6.value", "value": "741 M$", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.rows.6.value" }, { "path": "fundamentals.rows.6.signal", "value": "+35 % sur un an au deuxième trimestre ; mesure de la société, non GAAP", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.rows.6.signal" }, { "path": "fundamentals.rows.7.metric", "value": "Liquidités au 30 juin 2026", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.rows.7.metric" }, { "path": "fundamentals.rows.7.value", "value": "5,36 Md$", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.rows.7.value" }, { "path": "fundamentals.rows.8.metric", "value": "Billets convertibles au 30 juin 2026", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.rows.8.metric" }, { "path": "fundamentals.rows.8.value", "value": "2,17 Md$", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.rows.8.value" }, { "path": "fundamentals.rows.8.signal", "value": "Seule dette portant intérêt ; convertibles en 12,6 millions d’actions A", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.rows.8.signal" }, { "path": "fundamentals.rows.9.value", "value": "41,6×", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.rows.9.value" }, { "path": "fundamentals.rows.9.signal", "value": "Valeur d’entreprise au close du 2026-09-25 (899,08 M d’actions, convertibles inclus, cash déduit) sur EBITDA GAAP douze mois (résultat avant impôts + amortissements)", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.rows.9.signal" }, { "path": "fundamentals.rows.9.comparison", "value": "Versus Nasdaq à 18,2×, Moody’s à 21,6×, S&P Global à 16,7× et CME à 20,3× (statistiques courantes du 24 septembre, non point-in-time) : Robinhood se paie au-dessus des bourses et sous Coinbase (71,7×).", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.rows.9.comparison" }, { "path": "fundamentals.rows.10.value", "value": "21,1×", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.rows.10.value" }, { "path": "fundamentals.rows.10.signal", "value": "Valeur d’entreprise au close du 2026-09-25 sur revenus GAAP douze mois au 30 juin 2026", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.rows.10.signal" }, { "path": "fundamentals.rows.10.comparison", "value": "Versus la marge nette de 42 % : un multiple de croissance, pas de rendement.", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.rows.10.comparison" }, { "path": "fundamentals.rows.11.value", "value": "52×", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.rows.11.value" }, { "path": "fundamentals.rows.11.signal", "value": "Capitalisation au 2026-09-25 sur bénéfice net GAAP douze mois au 30 juin 2026", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.rows.11.signal" }, { "path": "fundamentals.rows.12.value", "value": "11,3×", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.rows.12.value" }, { "path": "fundamentals.rows.12.signal", "value": "Close du 2026-09-25 sur 10,54 $ de capitaux propres par action", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.rows.12.signal" }, { "path": "fundamentals.rows.13.value", "value": "73,23 $ par action", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.rows.13.value" }, { "path": "fundamentals.rows.13.signal", "value": "Scénario : multiple ramené à vingt-cinq fois l’EBITDA GAAP douze mois par hypothèse, bilan du 30 juin, soit −39 % sous le close du 2026-09-25", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.rows.13.signal" }, { "path": "fundamentals.rows.13.comparison", "value": "Versus Moody’s à 21,6× et CME à 20,3× : vingt-cinq fois reste au-dessus des bourses cotées ; ce que coûterait un alignement partiel, pas un objectif.", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.rows.13.comparison" }, { "path": "fundamentals.sourceRefs.0.name", "value": "Robinhood Markets 8-K / Exhibit 99.1", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.sourceRefs.0.name" }, { "path": "fundamentals.sourceRefs.0.url", "value": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1783879/000178387926000113/q22026robinhoodexhibit991.htm", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.sourceRefs.0.url" }, { "path": "fundamentals.sourceRefs.0.date", "value": "2026-07-29", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.sourceRefs.0.date" }, { "path": "fundamentals.sourceRefs.1.name", "value": "Robinhood Markets 10-Q", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.sourceRefs.1.name" }, { "path": "fundamentals.sourceRefs.1.url", "value": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1783879/000178387926000114/hood-20260630.htm", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.sourceRefs.1.url" }, { "path": "fundamentals.sourceRefs.1.date", "value": "2026-07-30", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.sourceRefs.1.date" }, { "path": "fundamentals.sourceRefs.2.date", "value": "2026-09-27", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.sourceRefs.2.date" }, { "path": "earnings.beatNote", "value": "Deuxième trimestre 2026 : revenus nets de 1,308 Md$ (+32 %), bénéfice net de 573 M$ (+48 %, dont 129 M$ de gains de déconsolidation), bénéfice dilué de 0,62 $ (+48 %), EBITDA ajusté non-GAAP de 741 M$ (+35 %). Moteur : les revenus de transaction (+44 %, à 776 M$), portés par les contrats événementiels (156 M$, ×10) et les options (342 M$, +29 %), tandis que la crypto recule de 38 %, à 100 M$. Robinhood ne publie pas de guidance chiffrée de revenus. La date du troisième trimestre, non annoncée par l’émetteur dans les dépôts ouverts, est placée vers le 4 novembre par le calendrier de marché.", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/earnings.beatNote" }, { "path": "earnings.nextEarnings", "value": "Date non confirmée par l’émetteur ; le calendrier de marché indique le 4 novembre 2026, au-delà de l’horizon du plan.", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/earnings.nextEarnings" }, { "path": "earnings.sourceRefs.0.name", "value": "Robinhood Markets 8-K / Exhibit 99.1", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/earnings.sourceRefs.0.name" }, { "path": "earnings.sourceRefs.0.url", "value": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1783879/000178387926000113/q22026robinhoodexhibit991.htm", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/earnings.sourceRefs.0.url" }, { "path": "earnings.sourceRefs.0.date", "value": "2026-07-29", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/earnings.sourceRefs.0.date" }, { "path": "capitalStructure.sharesOutstanding", "value": "899 082 273 actions au 23 juillet 2026 : 790 630 234 actions A et 108 452 039 actions B (page de garde du 10-Q). L’action B porte dix voix contre une pour l’action A ; les fondateurs et leurs affiliés détiennent la totalité des actions B et gardent le contrôle des votes.", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/capitalStructure.sharesOutstanding" }, { "path": "capitalStructure.shareHistory", "value": "La dilution structurelle est modérée et documentée. Les billets convertibles, 2,17 Md$ au 30 juin, sont potentiellement convertibles en 12,6 millions d’actions A, soit environ 1,4 % du capital ; aucune action n’a été émise par conversion au trimestre. Des bons de souscription portent sur 8,74 millions d’actions A au prix d’exercice de 26,60 $, échéance le 12 février 2031, exerçables par règlement net — très en dedans de la monnaie au cours actuel, mais leur règlement net limite le nombre d’actions réellement créées, et aucun n’a été exercé au trimestre. L’acquisition de TradePMR a donné lieu à l’émission d’environ 2 millions d’actions A non acquises, valorisées près de 100 M$. Passage au nombre dilué : au deuxième trimestre, 912 millions d’actions diluées en moyenne contre 899 millions de base, l’écart d’environ 1,4 % venant des attributions salariales non acquises et de l’effet des convertibles. En face, un programme de rachat d’actions est actif : 2 743 000 actions A ont été rachetées le 25 juin à 105,71 $. Aucun dépôt de dilution (S-3, 424B, ATM, nouvelle émission) n’apparaît dans la fenêtre de collecte, et le serveur ne relève aucun prospectus de mise sur le marché depuis l’introduction en Bourse de 2021. Le risque de dilution reste faible : rémunération en actions et convertibles d’un côté, rachats de l’autre.", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/capitalStructure.shareHistory" }, { "path": "capitalStructure.warrants.0.strike", "value": 26.6, "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/values/capitalStructure/warrants/0/strike" }, { "path": "capitalStructure.warrants.0.shares", "value": "8 740 000 actions A", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/capitalStructure.warrants.0.shares" }, { "path": "capitalStructure.warrants.0.expiration", "value": "2031-02-12", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/capitalStructure.warrants.0.expiration" }, { "path": "capitalStructure.warrants.0.dilutionPct", "value": "1,0 %", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/capitalStructure.warrants.0.dilutionPct" }, { "path": "capitalStructure.sourceRefs.0.name", "value": "Robinhood Markets 10-Q", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/capitalStructure.sourceRefs.0.name" }, { "path": "capitalStructure.sourceRefs.0.url", "value": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1783879/000178387926000114/hood-20260630.htm", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/capitalStructure.sourceRefs.0.url" }, { "path": "capitalStructure.sourceRefs.0.date", "value": "2026-07-30", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/capitalStructure.sourceRefs.0.date" }, { "path": "capitalStructure.sourceRefs.1.name", "value": "Robinhood Markets 10-K", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/capitalStructure.sourceRefs.1.name" }, { "path": "capitalStructure.sourceRefs.1.url", "value": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1783879/000178387926000023/hood-20251231.htm", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/capitalStructure.sourceRefs.1.url" }, { "path": "capitalStructure.sourceRefs.1.date", "value": "2026-02-18", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/capitalStructure.sourceRefs.1.date" }, { "path": "filingsReview.filings.0.date", "value": "2026-07-30", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/filingsReview.filings.0.date" }, { "path": "filingsReview.filings.0.form", "value": "10-Q", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/filingsReview.filings.0.form" }, { "path": "filingsReview.filings.0.accession", "value": "0001783879-26-000114", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/filingsReview.filings.0.accession" }, { "path": "filingsReview.filings.0.finding", "value": "Rapport trimestriel au 30 juin 2026 : 790 630 234 actions A et 108 452 039 actions B au 23 juillet, soit 899 082 273 titres ; billets convertibles potentiellement convertibles en 12,6 millions d’actions A ; bons de souscription pour 8,74 millions d’actions A au prix d’exercice de 26,60 $, échéance février 2031, exerçables par règlement net ; 2 millions d’actions A non acquises émises pour l’acquisition de TradePMR ; rachats d’actions en cours.", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/filingsReview.filings.0.finding" }, { "path": "filingsReview.filings.0.url", "value": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1783879/000178387926000114/hood-20260630.htm", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/filingsReview.filings.0.url" }, { "path": "filingsReview.filings.1.date", "value": "2026-07-29", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/filingsReview.filings.1.date" }, { "path": "filingsReview.filings.1.form", "value": "8-K / Exhibit 99.1", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/filingsReview.filings.1.form" }, { "path": "filingsReview.filings.1.accession", "value": "0001783879-26-000113", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/filingsReview.filings.1.accession" }, { "path": "filingsReview.filings.1.finding", "value": "Communiqué du deuxième trimestre 2026 : revenus nets totaux de 1,308 Md$ (+32 %), revenus de transaction de 776 M$ (+44 %, dont contrats événementiels 156 M$, ×10, options 342 M$, actions 129 M$, crypto 100 M$, −38 %), revenus d’intérêt nets de 389 M$ (+9 %), bénéfice net de 573 M$ (dont 129 M$ de gains de déconsolidation), BPA dilué de 0,62 $, EBITDA ajusté non-GAAP de 741 M$, 28,4 millions de comptes financés, dépôts nets record de 22 Md$, 4,8 millions d’abonnés Gold.", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/filingsReview.filings.1.finding" }, { "path": "filingsReview.filings.1.url", "value": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1783879/000178387926000113/q22026robinhoodexhibit991.htm", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/filingsReview.filings.1.url" }, { "path": "filingsReview.filings.2.date", "value": "2026-02-18", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/filingsReview.filings.2.date" }, { "path": "filingsReview.filings.2.form", "value": "10-K", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/filingsReview.filings.2.form" }, { "path": "filingsReview.filings.2.accession", "value": "0001783879-26-000023", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/filingsReview.filings.2.accession" }, { "path": "filingsReview.filings.2.finding", "value": "Rapport annuel de l’exercice clos le 31 décembre 2025 : structure à deux classes d’actions — action A à une voix, action B à dix voix, action C sans droit de vote ; les fondateurs et leurs affiliés détiennent la totalité des actions B et gardent le contrôle des votes. Modèle de courtier de détail : revenus de transaction dont le paiement pour flux d’ordres (PFOF), revenus d’intérêt nets et abonnements.", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/filingsReview.filings.2.finding" }, { "path": "filingsReview.filings.2.url", "value": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1783879/000178387926000023/hood-20251231.htm", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/filingsReview.filings.2.url" }, { "path": "filingsReview.contrarianRisks.1", "value": "Le PFOF, cœur des revenus de transaction, reste exposé au risque réglementaire cité dans le 10-K.", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/filingsReview.contrarianRisks.1" }, { "path": "filingsReview.contrarianRisks.3", "value": "Les 129 M$ de gains de déconsolidation gonflent le bénéfice du trimestre : la qualité récurrente du résultat est un peu plus basse que le chiffre affiché.", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/filingsReview.contrarianRisks.3" }, { "path": "technicals.rsi14", "value": 57.29, "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/values/technicals/rsi14" }, { "path": "technicals.macd", "value": 4.62, "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/values/technicals/macd" }, { "path": "technicals.macdSignal", "value": 4.3, "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/values/technicals/macdSignal" }, { "path": "technicals.ema20", "value": 114.69, "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/values/technicals/ema20" }, { "path": "technicals.ema50", "value": 107.67, "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/values/technicals/ema50" }, { "path": "technicals.ema200", "value": 103.22, "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/values/technicals/ema200" }, { "path": "technicals.atr14", "value": 6.22, "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/values/technicals/atr14" }, { "path": "technicals.badges.1", "value": "5,8 % sous le sommet du 23 septembre", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/technicals.badges.1" }, { "path": "technicals.badges.2", "value": "ATR de 6,22 $", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/technicals.badges.2" }, { "path": "technicals.supports.0", "value": 119.091, "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/values/technicals/supports/0" }, { "path": "technicals.supports.1", "value": 117.53, "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/values/technicals/supports/1" }, { "path": "technicals.supports.2", "value": 111.95, "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/values/technicals/supports/2" }, { "path": "technicals.resistances.0", "value": 126.41, "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/values/technicals/resistances/0" }, { "path": "technicals.resistances.1", "value": 125.25, "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/values/technicals/resistances/1" }, { "path": "technicals.resistances.2", "value": 126.74, "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/values/technicals/resistances/2" }, { "path": "technicals.setupNote", "value": "Le titre clôture à 119,40 $, 4,1 % au-dessus de sa moyenne à vingt séances et 5,8 % sous le sommet du 23 septembre, 126,74 $. Le repli du 24-25 s’est arrêté vers 119,09 $-117,53 $. Avant activation, aucune entrée ; une clôture sous 101,70 $, le plus bas du 16 septembre, abandonne le scénario. Activation sur une clôture au-dessus de $126.74. Après activation, stop sous $117.53, le plus bas du 25 septembre, soit 1,48 ATR sous le déclencheur. Supports : 119,09 $, 117,53 $ et 111,95 $. Résistances : 126,41 $, 125,25 $ et 126,74 $ ; au-dessus du sommet, les objectifs sont des projections de la hauteur du couloir.", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/technicals.setupNote" }, { "path": "technicals.sourceRefs.0.date", "value": "2026-09-27", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/technicals.sourceRefs.0.date" }, { "path": "options.callOI", "value": "92 055 contrats", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/options.callOI" }, { "path": "options.putOI", "value": "54 905 contrats", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/options.putOI" }, { "path": "options.cpRatio", "value": "1,68", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/options.cpRatio" }, { "path": "options.maxPain", "value": "116,00 $ (échéance du 2 octobre)", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/options.maxPain" }, { "path": "options.unusual", "value": "Chaîne relevée le 28 septembre, échéance courte, non rattachée à la clôture de référence ; positionnement indicatif seulement", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/options.unusual" }, { "path": "options.sourceRefs.0.name", "value": "Données de marché datées (provenance hashée) : options relevées le 28 septembre", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/options.sourceRefs.0.name" }, { "path": "options.sourceRefs.0.date", "value": "2026-09-27", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/options.sourceRefs.0.date" }, { "path": "shortInterest.siPct", "value": "4,54 % du flottant", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/shortInterest.siPct" }, { "path": "shortInterest.daysToCover", "value": "1,91 jours (règlement du 15 septembre)", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/shortInterest.daysToCover" }, { "path": "shortInterest.trend", "value": "Positions vendeuses modérées et en repli : de 6,7 % du flottant fin septembre 2025 à 4,6 % à la mi-septembre 2026 ; 1,9 jour de couverture, aucune thèse de rachat forcé.", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/shortInterest.trend" }, { "path": "shortInterest.sourceRefs.0.date", "value": "2026-09-27", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/shortInterest.sourceRefs.0.date" }, { "path": "insiders.signal", "value": "Ventes uniquement, aucun achat : zéro achat et trente-cinq ventes sur quatre-vingt-dix jours. Le directeur général Vlad Tenev a converti puis vendu des titres les 21 et 22 septembre, autour de 125-126 $ (environ 248 000 et 240 000 actions), en plus de ventes du directeur financier Shiv Verma, du directeur juridique Daniel Gallagher, du directeur du courtage Steven Quirk et du cofondateur Baiju Bhatt plus tôt dans le mois. Ces ventes accompagnent souvent des plans programmés ; elles n’en restent pas moins un flux vendeur régulier, sans achat en face.", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/insiders.signal" }, { "path": "insiders.sourceRefs.0.name", "value": "Données de marché datées (provenance hashée) : formulaires 4", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/insiders.sourceRefs.0.name" }, { "path": "insiders.sourceRefs.0.date", "value": "2026-09-27", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/insiders.sourceRefs.0.date" }, { "path": "macro.indicators.0.value", "value": "2026-09-25", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/macro.indicators.0.value" }, { "path": "macro.indicators.0.signal", "value": "119,40 $, séance complète", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/macro.indicators.0.signal" }, { "path": "macro.indicators.1.value", "value": "−0,35 %", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/macro.indicators.1.value" }, { "path": "macro.indicators.2.value", "value": "+10,01 %", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/macro.indicators.2.value" }, { "path": "macro.impact", "value": "Robinhood est un pari sur l’appétit du particulier pour le risque : ses trois moteurs — trading, crypto et intérêts — montent ensemble quand les marchés grimpent et que les taux tiennent, et reculent ensemble dans le cas inverse. Une baisse des taux courts pèserait sur les revenus d’intérêt nets ; un refroidissement de la crypto et des options, sur les revenus de transaction. Le titre bat ses pairs sur vingt et une séances (+10 %) mais reste très corrélé à Coinbase.", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/macro.impact" }, { "path": "risks.riskScore", "value": 6, "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/values/risks/riskScore" }, { "path": "risks.riskCards.0.points.0", "value": "52 fois le bénéfice, 41,6 fois l’EBITDA.", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/risks.riskCards.0.points.0" }, { "path": "risks.riskCards.1.points.1", "value": "Crypto déjà en repli de 38 % au deuxième trimestre.", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/risks.riskCards.1.points.1" }, { "path": "risks.riskCards.3.points.1", "value": "Risque de nouvelle réglementation cité dans le 10-K.", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/risks.riskCards.3.points.1" }, { "path": "risks.pedagogy", "value": "Le prix d’une action de croissance intègre déjà beaucoup de bonnes nouvelles. À plus de cinquante fois le bénéfice, Robinhood doit continuer de faire croître ses volumes pour justifier son cours ; c’est le sens du scénario de re-notation, qui montre ce que coûterait un simple alignement partiel sur les multiples des bourses cotées. Sur un titre dont l’amplitude journalière moyenne dépasse 6,22 $, les écarts d’ouverture — les gaps — de plusieurs pour cent sont fréquents : le stop peut être franchi d’un coup. Les prochains résultats, publiés vers le 4 novembre, tombent hors de l’horizon du plan. Le slippage, l’écart entre prix voulu et prix obtenu, reste faible sur plus de 2,3 Md$ échangés par séance. Dimensionner la position sur la distance au stop, 9,21 $ par action après activation, et traiter le titre comme une valeur de momentum chère, pas comme une valeur de rendement.", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/risks.pedagogy" }, { "path": "tradeIdea.statusNote", "value": "Surveiller. Avant activation : aucune entrée ; une clôture sous 101,70 $ abandonne le scénario. Activation : clôture au-dessus de 126,74 $, puis achat à l’ouverture suivante seulement sous 131,22 $, ou par ordre limité à ce plafond pendant trois séances, annulé après une clôture sous 126,74 $ et jamais laissé actif sur une ouverture sous 117,53 $. Après activation : stop sous 117,53 $. Le titre clôture sous le déclencheur : le plan n’est pas activé.", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/tradeIdea.statusNote" }, { "path": "tradeIdea.entry", "value": 126.74, "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/values/tradeIdea/entry" }, { "path": "tradeIdea.stop", "value": 117.53, "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/values/tradeIdea/stop" }, { "path": "tradeIdea.tp1", "value": 151.77, "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/values/tradeIdea/tp1" }, { "path": "tradeIdea.tp2", "value": 164.29, "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/values/tradeIdea/tp2" }, { "path": "tradeIdea.stopPct", "value": "-7.3%", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/tradeIdea.stopPct" }, { "path": "tradeIdea.tp1Pct", "value": "+19.7%", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/tradeIdea.tp1Pct" }, { "path": "tradeIdea.tp2Pct", "value": "+29.6%", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/tradeIdea.tp2Pct" }, { "path": "tradeIdea.rr", "value": "1:2.72 TP1 / 1:4.08 TP2", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/tradeIdea.rr" }, { "path": "tradeIdea.entryNote", "value": "Déclencheur sur clôture au-dessus du plus haut du 23 septembre, pas sur un franchissement en séance. Entrée à l’ouverture suivante uniquement sous 131,22 $ : au-delà, le R/R vers TP1 tomberait sous 1,5 avec le même stop. Ce plafond est à 4,48 $ au-dessus du déclencheur, soit 0,72 ATR. Mesure : sur les 250 dernières séances, 14 ouvertures ont dépassé la clôture de la veille de plus de 4,48 $, soit environ 6 % ; l’écart d’ouverture médian, dans un sens ou dans l’autre, vaut 1,48 $. Sur la série, 17 clôtures ont cassé un plus haut de vingt séances : 10 ont fini à moins de 3,53 % au-dessus du niveau cassé, l’écart relatif du plafond, et 6 ont ensuite ouvert sous ce seuil, soit environ 35 % des cassures : l’entrée à l’ouverture reste possible, mais moins d’une fois sur deux. Plan de repli : si l’ouverture dépasse le plafond, un ordre à cours limité à 131,22 $, valable trois séances, garde le même R/R et le même stop. Bornes : il est annulé après toute clôture sous le déclencheur, 126,74 $ ; il n’est pas laissé actif à l’ouverture d’une séance qui ouvre sous le stop, 117,53 $, ni si le stop est touché avant exécution. Rejouées avec ces bornes sur les 11 cassures non achetables à l’ouverture, l’ordre aurait été exécuté 8 fois, sans que le stop soit touché la même séance ; aucun retrait sur ouverture sous le stop ; 1 de ces exécutions ont fini la séance sous le niveau cassé. Objectifs : TP1 à une hauteur de couloir au-dessus du déclencheur, TP2 à une fois et demie ; ce sont des projections d’amplitude, pas des cibles de valorisation. Liquidité : environ 2,3 Md$ échangés par séance, médiane des vingt dernières. Exemple de taille, non personnalisé : avec un budget de perte de 1 000 $, le risque au plafond, 13,69 $ par action, donne 73 actions ; à titre indicatif, 7 actions pour un budget de 100 $.", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/tradeIdea.entryNote" }, { "path": "tradeIdea.thesis", "value": "Le marché a acheté la diversification des revenus de transaction et la croissance des comptes, puis a marqué une pause sous le sommet du 23 septembre. Une clôture au-dessus de $126.74 montrerait que les acheteurs passent outre une valorisation déjà tendue. Avant activation, une clôture sous 101,70 $ abandonne le dossier. Après activation, le stop sous $117.53 limite le coût d’une fausse sortie. TP1 à 151,77 $ et TP2 à 164,29 $ sont des projections d’amplitude. Ne pas anticiper le déclencheur, ne pas acheter un écart au-dessus du plafond, et garder à l’esprit que le titre est cher.", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/tradeIdea.thesis" }, { "path": "tradeIdea.catalysts.0", "value": "Une clôture au-dessus du plus haut du 23 septembre, sur un volume au moins égal à la médiane récente.", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/tradeIdea.catalysts.0" }, { "path": "tradeIdea.invalidation.0", "value": "Avant activation : une clôture sous 101,70 $, bas du couloir, abandonne le scénario.", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/tradeIdea.invalidation.0" }, { "path": "tradeIdea.invalidation.1", "value": "Après activation : une clôture sous 117,53 $ invalide le trade.", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/tradeIdea.invalidation.1" }, { "path": "tradeIdea.invalidation.2", "value": "Ouverture au-dessus de 131,22 $ après la clôture de déclenchement : pas d’achat à l’ouverture ; seul l’ordre limité à 131,22 $ reste valable trois séances.", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/tradeIdea.invalidation.2" }, { "path": "tradeIdea.invalidation.3", "value": "Ordre limité de repli annulé après une clôture sous 126,74 $, retiré avant toute ouverture sous le stop à 117,53 $ et si le stop est touché avant exécution.", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/tradeIdea.invalidation.3" }, { "path": "globalScore.keyTakeawaysPositive.0", "value": "Revenus +32 %, contrats événementiels ×10.", "as_of": "2026-09-25", "source_artifact": "analyses/HOOD/_runs/20260927/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "0f8cbb2d08f9f5ff2d46cad50e5b492d4d003b9bb097704b9db21328612fa00e", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/globalScore.keyTakeawaysPositive.0" }, { "path": "globalScore.keyTakeawaysPositive.2", "value": "28,4 millions de comptes 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