{ "ticker": "ORCL", "reference_close": "2026-10-08", "analysis_path": "data/analyses-data/ORCL.json", "analysis_sha256": "45f3913a734c2b5ae82f778eb692f2891900030142717bfda418a2ac6f168c54", "claims": [ { "path": "meta.date", "value": "2026-10-09", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/meta.date" }, { "path": "meta.dateDisplay", "value": "9 octobre 2026", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/meta.dateDisplay" }, { "path": "meta.version", "value": 3, "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/values/meta/version" }, { "path": "meta.levelsCloseDate", "value": "2026-10-08", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/meta.levelsCloseDate" }, { "path": "meta.description", "value": "Oracle : carnet de 664 Md$, infrastructure cloud +121 %, mais un capex qui dépasse le flux opérationnel et un titre 58 % sous son plus haut sur un an. Close du 8 octobre à 135,69 $ après la chute liée à OpenAI : surveiller le haut du couloir.", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/meta.description" }, { "path": "meta.ogDescription", "value": "Oracle à 135,69 $ : RPO 664 Md$, capex au-dessus du flux opérationnel, avis de force majeure sur Jupiter. Pas d’entrée avant une clôture au-dessus de 146,94 $.", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/meta.ogDescription" }, { "path": "meta.lastMcpRefresh", "value": "2026-10-09T19:58:11.346439814Z", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/meta.lastMcpRefresh" }, { "path": "meta.levelsVerifiedAt", "value": "2026-10-09T19:58:11.346439814Z", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/meta.levelsVerifiedAt" }, { "path": "meta.statusHistory.0.at", "value": "2026-09-27T21:35:57.399282731Z", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/meta.statusHistory.0.at" }, { "path": "meta.statusHistory.0.note", "value": "rafraîchissement du 27 septembre au close du 25 : le plan du 23 est invalidé, la clôture à 137,10 $ étant passée sous le plus bas post-résultats du 16 septembre (139,00 $) ; titre sous ses moyennes à vingt, cinquante et deux cents séances, aucune entrée", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/meta.statusHistory.0.note" }, { "path": "meta.statusHistory.0.close", "value": 137.1, "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/values/meta/statusHistory/0/close" }, { "path": "meta.statusHistory.1.at", "value": "2026-10-09T19:58:11.346439814Z", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/meta.statusHistory.1.at" }, { "path": "meta.statusHistory.1.note", "value": "rafraîchissement du 9 octobre au close du 8 : couloir formé entre le plus bas du 28 septembre (131,58 $) et le plus haut du 6 octobre (146,94 $) ; nouveau plan de surveillance sur cassure du haut du couloir, aucune entrée au close", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/meta.statusHistory.1.note" }, { "path": "meta.statusHistory.1.close", "value": 135.69, "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/values/meta/statusHistory/1/close" }, { "path": "header.price", "value": 135.69, "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/values/header/price" }, { "path": "header.changePct", "value": -5.482028420172758, "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/values/header/changePct" }, { "path": "header.badges.0.text", "value": "SURVEILLER — REPRISE AU-DESSUS DU PLUS HAUT DU 6 OCTOBRE", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/header.badges.0.text" }, { "path": "header.metrics.marketCap", "value": "411,3 Md$", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/header.metrics.marketCap" }, { "path": "header.metrics.volume", "value": "42,01 M", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/header.metrics.volume" }, { "path": "header.metrics.evEbitda", "value": "15,0×", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/header.metrics.evEbitda" }, { "path": "verdict.score", "value": 53, "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/values/verdict/score" }, { "path": "verdict.confidence", "value": "Score éditorial non prédictif. Les chiffres d’entreprise viennent des dépôts SEC et des données XBRL officielles ; les niveaux, du close certifié du 8 octobre.", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/verdict.confidence" }, { "path": "verdict.summary", "value": "Oracle vend de la capacité de calcul pour l’IA plus vite qu’il ne peut la construire : infrastructure cloud en hausse de 121 % au trimestre clos le 31 août, carnet de commandes contractuel de 664 Md$. Le marché bute sur deux points. Le financement d’abord : le capex dépasse un flux opérationnel lui-même gonflé par des prépaiements, et le programme d’actions de 20 Md$ a été vidé en un trimestre. L’exécution ensuite : le 24 septembre, Oracle a envoyé un avis de force majeure sur son campus Project Jupiter, et le 8 octobre, un article du Financial Times sur les revenus d’OpenAI a fait plonger les néo-clouds et toute la chaîne de dépense IA. Ce jour-là, Oracle a fait −5,5 %, contre −7,8 % pour CoreWeave et −1,3 % pour Microsoft. Sur ces nouvelles, le titre réagit davantage comme un néo-cloud que comme un éditeur. À 135,69 $, il reste dans le couloir ouvert le 28 septembre, sous ses moyennes à vingt, cinquante et deux cents séances. Un administrateur a acheté 3,5 M$ d’actions à 139,35 $ le 29 septembre. Surveiller : aucune entrée avant une clôture au-dessus de 146,94 $, le plus haut du 6 octobre.", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/verdict.summary" }, { "path": "verdict.whyBuy.0", "value": "Le chiffre d’affaires trimestriel atteint 19,3 Md$ (+30 %) et l’infrastructure cloud progresse de 121 % : la croissance est dans les comptes, pas seulement dans les promesses.", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/verdict.whyBuy.0" }, { "path": "verdict.whyBuy.1", "value": "Le carnet de commandes contractuel (RPO) atteint 664 Md$ ; la direction relève sa prévision annuelle à au moins 90 Md$ de revenus et vise 8,10 $ de bénéfice ajusté par action, soit 16,8 fois au close.", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/verdict.whyBuy.1" }, { "path": "verdict.whyBuy.2", "value": "Achat d’initié rare : Stephen Rusckowski, administrateur, a acheté 25 000 actions le 29 septembre à 139,35 $ en moyenne, environ 3,5 M$. Larry Ellison a annulé le 12 septembre le plan qui lui permettait de vendre jusqu’à 50 millions d’actions.", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/verdict.whyBuy.2" }, { "path": "verdict.whyBuy.3", "value": "Les positions vendeuses restent faibles, 2,7 % du flottant : la baisse vient de ventes au comptant, pas d’un pari vendeur massif.", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/verdict.whyBuy.3" }, { "path": "verdict.whyAvoid.0", "value": "Le capex trimestriel de 28,5 Md$ dépasse le flux opérationnel de 23,1 Md$, lui-même porté par 11,4 Md$ de prépaiements clients ; le programme d’actions de 20 Md$ est épuisé et S&P a abaissé la note de crédit à BBB-, un cran au-dessus de la catégorie spéculative, le 9 juillet.", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/verdict.whyAvoid.0" }, { "path": "verdict.whyAvoid.1", "value": "Exécution sous tension : avis de force majeure du 24 septembre sur Project Jupiter (Nouveau-Mexique, 2,45 GW), dont le gazoduc a été retardé ; Oracle y étudie un approvisionnement en gaz par camion.", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/verdict.whyAvoid.1" }, { "path": "verdict.whyAvoid.2", "value": "Concentration sur OpenAI : les dépôts ne nomment pas le client, mais Project Jupiter est un site Stargate (Oracle, OpenAI, SoftBank) et S&P estime qu’OpenAI pèse environ la moitié du carnet de 638 Md$ au 31 mai. Le 8 octobre, un article ramenant ses revenus annualisés à environ 50 Md$ a fait reculer Oracle dans le sillage de CoreWeave.", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/verdict.whyAvoid.2" }, { "path": "verdict.whyAvoid.3", "value": "Le titre est 58 % sous son plus haut sur un an (322,54 $, octobre 2025), sous ses trois moyennes, et la séance du 8 octobre s’est faite sur 1,2 fois le volume moyen des vingt séances précédentes.", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/verdict.whyAvoid.3" }, { "path": "verdict.controlChecklist.0.evidence", "value": "Série quotidienne certifiée au close du 8 octobre ; aucune opération sur titres, échelle cohérente.", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/verdict.controlChecklist.0.evidence" }, { "path": "verdict.controlChecklist.1.evidence", "value": "Programme « at-the-market » de 20 Md$ épuisé au premier trimestre ; 3,0315 Md d’actions au 21 septembre ; 42,7 Md$ d’obligations émises sur l’exercice 2026 ; la déclaration d’enregistrement n° 333-277990 reste utilisable : un nouveau programme ne demande qu’un supplément de prospectus. Aucun dépôt de financement du 14 septembre au 8 octobre.", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/verdict.controlChecklist.1.evidence" }, { "path": "verdict.controlChecklist.1.action", "value": "Relire chaque nouveau dépôt (supplément de prospectus, 8-K de dette) avant toute entrée.", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/verdict.controlChecklist.1.action" }, { "path": "verdict.controlChecklist.2.evidence", "value": "Clôture à 135,69 $, entre 131,58 $ et 146,94 $, sous les moyennes à vingt (142,49 $), cinquante (145,56 $) et deux cents séances (173,05 $).", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/verdict.controlChecklist.2.evidence" }, { "path": "verdict.controlChecklist.2.action", "value": "Aucune entrée avant une clôture au-dessus de 146,94 $ ; une clôture sous 131,58 $ abandonne le scénario.", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/verdict.controlChecklist.2.action" }, { "path": "business.overview", "value": "

Oracle a trois métiers. Le logiciel historique, bases de données et licences, recule doucement à mesure que les clients migrent vers le cloud. Les applications cloud, gestion et santé, progressent d’environ 10 %. Et l’infrastructure cloud, où la société loue de la capacité de calcul à des clients qui entraînent et font tourner des modèles d’IA.

C’est ce dernier métier qui porte la thèse. Il a bondi de 121 % au trimestre clos le 31 août, et le carnet de commandes contractuel (RPO) atteint 664 Md$. Les dépôts ne nomment aucun client : le 10-K signale seulement une concentration sur quelques grands clients de l’infrastructure cloud. Le lien avec OpenAI est pourtant établi hors des dépôts : Project Jupiter, le campus de 2,45 GW du Nouveau-Mexique, est un site Stargate, la coentreprise d’Oracle, d’OpenAI et de SoftBank, et S&P, en abaissant la note d’Oracle à BBB- le 9 juillet, a estimé qu’OpenAI pesait environ la moitié du carnet de 638 Md$ au 31 mai. Le marché le sait : le 8 octobre, un article sur les revenus d’OpenAI a fait reculer Oracle dans le sillage de CoreWeave.

Le revers est mécanique. Pour livrer, il faut construire des centres de données, acheter des puces et sécuriser de l’électricité avant d’encaisser. Le capex du trimestre, 28,5 Md$, a dépassé le flux opérationnel de 23,1 Md$, qui contenait lui-même 11,4 Md$ de prépaiements clients. Le trou a été comblé par 19,9 Md$ d’actions émises, après 42,7 Md$ d’obligations sur l’exercice 2026, pendant que les emprunts revenaient de 129,5 à 125,3 Md$. Oracle s’est en outre engagé sur 288 Md$ de loyers de centres de données qui ne figurent pas encore au bilan. Jupiter montre ce que coûte un retard : faute de gazoduc à temps, Oracle a envoyé à son promoteur un avis de force majeure qui lui permettrait de différer des loyers si le campus manque son ouverture de 2028.

", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/business.overview" }, { "path": "business.segments.0.revenue", "value": "Environ 60 % des revenus", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/business.segments.0.revenue" }, { "path": "business.segments.0.pct", "value": "+121 % infra", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/business.segments.0.pct" }, { "path": "business.segments.0.description", "value": "Infrastructure en hausse de 121 %, applications en hausse d’environ 10 %.", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/business.segments.0.description" }, { "path": "business.segments.1.revenue", "value": "Environ 29 % des revenus", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/business.segments.1.revenue" }, { "path": "business.segments.2.revenue", "value": "Environ 11 % des revenus", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/business.segments.2.revenue" }, { "path": "business.segments.2.pct", "value": "+8 %", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/business.segments.2.pct" }, { "path": "business.segments.2.description", "value": "Services +5 % (1,4 Md$), matériel +15 % (0,8 Md$) au trimestre clos le 31 août.", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/business.segments.2.description" }, { "path": "business.sourceRefs.0.name", "value": "Oracle 8-K / Exhibit 99.1", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/business.sourceRefs.0.name" }, { "path": "business.sourceRefs.0.url", "value": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1341439/000119312526387905/orcl-ex99_1.htm", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/business.sourceRefs.0.url" }, { "path": "business.sourceRefs.0.date", "value": "2026-09-10", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/business.sourceRefs.0.date" }, { "path": "business.sourceRefs.1.name", "value": "Oracle 10-Q", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/business.sourceRefs.1.name" }, { "path": "business.sourceRefs.1.url", "value": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1341439/000119312526389274/orcl-20260831.htm", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/business.sourceRefs.1.url" }, { "path": "business.sourceRefs.1.date", "value": "2026-09-11", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/business.sourceRefs.1.date" }, { "path": "business.sourceRefs.2.name", "value": "Oracle 10-K", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/business.sourceRefs.2.name" }, { "path": "business.sourceRefs.2.url", "value": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1341439/000119312526277521/orcl-20260531.htm", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/business.sourceRefs.2.url" }, { "path": "business.sourceRefs.2.date", "value": "2026-06-22", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/business.sourceRefs.2.date" }, { "path": "business.coverageMatrix.0.decision", "value": "Trois cents séances continues, close certifié du 8 octobre ; base des niveaux et des indicateurs.", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/business.coverageMatrix.0.decision" }, { "path": "business.coverageMatrix.1.decision", "value": "Communiqué du 10 septembre et 10-Q ; prochaine publication vers le 10 décembre selon une source calendaire unique, non confirmée par l’émetteur.", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/business.coverageMatrix.1.decision" }, { "path": "business.coverageMatrix.2.decision", "value": "Douze mois glissants au 31 août 2026 reconstitués depuis les données XBRL officielles.", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/business.coverageMatrix.2.decision" }, { "path": "business.coverageMatrix.3.decision", "value": "Programme d’actions épuisé, préférentielles obligatoirement convertibles, actions au 21 septembre et nantissement de Larry Ellison lus dans le 10-Q, le 10-K et la circulaire de procuration ; dette et actions séparées.", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/business.coverageMatrix.3.decision" }, { "path": "business.coverageMatrix.5.decision", "value": "Achat d’un administrateur ouvert dans le formulaire 4 ; ventes de dirigeants et retenues fiscales relevées ; aucun solde net affirmé (amendement non résolu dans le flux officiel).", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/business.coverageMatrix.5.decision" }, { "path": "news.0.date", "value": "2026-07-09", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/news.0.date" }, { "path": "news.0.detail", "value": "S&P ramène la note de crédit d’Oracle à BBB-, un cran au-dessus de la catégorie spéculative, en citant l’envolée du capex et la concentration sur OpenAI, qu’elle estime à environ la moitié du carnet, alors de 638 Md$ au 31 mai. Le 10-K prévient qu’un abaissement renchérit la dette et peut peser sur les actions.", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/news.0.detail" }, { "path": "news.1.date", "value": "2026-09-24", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/news.1.date" }, { "path": "news.1.detail", "value": "Selon Bloomberg, Oracle a adressé au promoteur de son campus de 2,45 GW au Nouveau-Mexique un avis de force majeure qui lui permettrait de différer des loyers si l’électricité n’est pas prête pour l’ouverture prévue en 2028 ; Oracle indique que le projet reste dans son calendrier. Le titre fait −3,49 % (clôture 139,52 $), contre +3,72 % pour CoreWeave et −0,77 % pour le panier des logiciels : la baisse est propre à Oracle.", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/news.1.detail" }, { "path": "news.1.sourceUrl", "value": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/24/oracle-data-center-force-majeure.html", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/news.1.sourceUrl" }, { "path": "news.2.date", "value": "2026-09-29", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/news.2.date" }, { "path": "news.2.title", "value": "Un administrateur achète 3,5 M$ d’actions", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/news.2.title" }, { "path": "news.2.detail", "value": "Stephen Rusckowski achète 25 000 actions à 139,35 $ en moyenne, par son trust personnel, le lendemain du plus bas du 28 septembre et 5,9 % au-dessus de celui-ci. Le titre clôture ce jour-là à 137,79 $. C’est le seul achat sur le marché d’un initié relevé sur l’année ; il ne compense pas les ventes de dirigeants de septembre, mais il vient d’un membre du conseil, près des plus bas.", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/news.2.detail" }, { "path": "news.2.source", "value": "Oracle — SEC (formulaire 4)", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/news.2.source" }, { "path": "news.2.sourceUrl", "value": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1341439/000134143926000099/form4.xml", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/news.2.sourceUrl" }, { "path": "news.3.date", "value": "2026-10-08", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/news.3.date" }, { "path": "news.3.detail", "value": "Le Financial Times rapporte que les revenus annualisés d’OpenAI approchaient 50 Md$, loin des près de 70 Md$ qui circulaient une semaine plus tôt. Oracle fait −5,48 % sur 42,0 M d’actions échangées, plus bas de séance à 134,66 $. Même séance : CoreWeave −7,77 %, Nebius −7,35 %, Microsoft −1,35 %, panier des logiciels −0,23 %. Puces et électricité ont aussi reculé (Broadcom −4,35 %, Micron −4,79 %, Constellation −4,85 %) : le marché a vendu toute la chaîne de dépense IA, néo-clouds en tête, pas le logiciel.", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/news.3.detail" }, { "path": "news.3.sourceUrl", "value": "https://techcrunch.com/2026/10/08/openais-revenue-is-reportedly-20-billion-less-than-previously-projected/", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/news.3.sourceUrl" }, { "path": "news.4.date", "value": "2026-10-08", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/news.4.date" }, { "path": "news.4.detail", "value": "Oracle étudie des livraisons de gaz naturel comprimé par camion pour alimenter son campus de 2,45 GW au Nouveau-Mexique, comme il le fait déjà dans l’Utah et au Texas. Le gazoduc d’Energy Transfer, dévié après le refus du tracé initial, n’entrerait en service que l’an prochain. Selon East Daley Analytics, le gaz livré ainsi coûte environ quatre fois le prix d’un grand hub gazier : un surcoût d’énergie tant que le gazoduc manque.", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/news.4.detail" }, { "path": "fundamentals.rows.0.value", "value": "19,3 Md$", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.rows.0.value" }, { "path": "fundamentals.rows.0.signal", "value": "+30 % sur un an, communiqué du 10 septembre", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.rows.0.signal" }, { "path": "fundamentals.rows.1.value", "value": "+121 %", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.rows.1.value" }, { "path": "fundamentals.rows.2.value", "value": "23,1 Md$", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.rows.2.value" }, { "path": "fundamentals.rows.2.signal", "value": "Dont 11,4 Md$ de prépaiements clients, 10-Q", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.rows.2.signal" }, { "path": "fundamentals.rows.3.value", "value": "28,5 Md$", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.rows.3.value" }, { "path": "fundamentals.rows.4.value", "value": "−5,4 Md$", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.rows.4.value" }, { "path": "fundamentals.rows.4.signal", "value": "Flux opérationnel − capex, 10-Q", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.rows.4.signal" }, { "path": "fundamentals.rows.5.value", "value": "−16,8 Md$", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.rows.5.value" }, { "path": "fundamentals.rows.5.signal", "value": "Sans les avances de clients, trimestre clos le 31 août", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.rows.5.signal" }, { "path": "fundamentals.rows.6.value", "value": "71,78 Md$", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.rows.6.value" }, { "path": "fundamentals.rows.6.signal", "value": "Douze mois glissants au 31 août 2026 (XBRL SEC)", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.rows.6.signal" }, { "path": "fundamentals.rows.7.value", "value": "33,94 Md$", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.rows.7.value" }, { "path": "fundamentals.rows.7.signal", "value": "Résultat opérationnel + amortissements, douze mois au 31 août 2026", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.rows.7.signal" }, { "path": "fundamentals.rows.8.value", "value": "18,92 Md$", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.rows.8.value" }, { "path": "fundamentals.rows.8.signal", "value": "Douze mois glissants au 31 août 2026", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.rows.8.signal" }, { "path": "fundamentals.rows.9.metric", "value": "Dette financière au 31 août (emprunts + locations-financement)", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.rows.9.metric" }, { "path": "fundamentals.rows.9.value", "value": "134,52 Md$", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.rows.9.value" }, { "path": "fundamentals.rows.9.signal", "value": "Emprunts courants et non courants + locations-financement, bilan du 10-Q ; hors 34,62 Md$ de locations simples (loyers déjà déduits de l’EBITDA) et hors 288 Md$ de loyers futurs non encore au bilan", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.rows.9.signal" }, { "path": "fundamentals.rows.10.metric", "value": "Trésorerie et placements au 31 août", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.rows.10.metric" }, { "path": "fundamentals.rows.10.value", "value": "37,08 Md$", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.rows.10.value" }, { "path": "fundamentals.rows.10.signal", "value": "Liquidités + placements courants, bilan du 10-Q", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.rows.10.signal" }, { "path": "fundamentals.rows.11.value", "value": "15,0×", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.rows.11.value" }, { "path": "fundamentals.rows.11.signal", "value": "Valeur d’entreprise au close du 2026-10-08 (3,0315 Md d’actions au 21 septembre) sur EBITDA GAAP douze mois au 2026-08-31", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.rows.11.signal" }, { "path": "fundamentals.rows.11.comparison", "value": "Versus les pairs : Microsoft à 20,5×, Alphabet à 24,0×, Amazon à 17,0×, CoreWeave à 25,0×, IBM à 16,4× (statistiques courantes collectées le 9 octobre 2026, non point-in-time). Oracle se paie moins cher que les hyperscalers, qui financent leur capex sur leurs propres flux.", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.rows.11.comparison" }, { "path": "fundamentals.rows.12.value", "value": "7,1×", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.rows.12.value" }, { "path": "fundamentals.rows.12.signal", "value": "Valeur d’entreprise au close du 2026-10-08 sur revenus GAAP douze mois au 2026-08-31", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.rows.12.signal" }, { "path": "fundamentals.rows.12.comparison", "value": "Versus les pairs : CoreWeave à 12,5×, Microsoft à 12,0×, Salesforce à 5,0× (statistiques courantes, non point-in-time). Face à une croissance de 30 %, le multiple suppose que la croissance dure.", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.rows.12.comparison" }, { "path": "fundamentals.rows.13.value", "value": "21,7×", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.rows.13.value" }, { "path": "fundamentals.rows.13.signal", "value": "Capitalisation au 2026-10-08 sur résultat net GAAP douze mois au 2026-08-31", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.rows.13.signal" }, { "path": "fundamentals.rows.13.comparison", "value": "Le résultat net douze mois inclut des produits non opérationnels de l’exercice 2026, dont le gain de cession de la participation dans Ampere : ce P/E est flatté.", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.rows.13.comparison" }, { "path": "fundamentals.rows.14.value", "value": "16,8×", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.rows.14.value" }, { "path": "fundamentals.rows.14.signal", "value": "Close du 2026-10-08 sur bénéfice ajusté non-GAAP de 8,10 $ guidé pour l’exercice 2027", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.rows.14.signal" }, { "path": "fundamentals.rows.14.source", "value": "Clôture certifiée et communiqué du 10 septembre", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.rows.14.source" }, { "path": "fundamentals.rows.15.value", "value": "102,20 $ par action", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.rows.15.value" }, { "path": "fundamentals.rows.15.signal", "value": "Scénario : multiple ramené à douze fois l’EBITDA GAAP douze mois au 2026-08-31, dette et trésorerie du 2026-08-31 inchangées, soit −25 % par rapport au close du 2026-10-08", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.rows.15.signal" }, { "path": "fundamentals.sourceRefs.0.name", "value": "Oracle 8-K / Exhibit 99.1", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.sourceRefs.0.name" }, { "path": "fundamentals.sourceRefs.0.url", "value": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1341439/000119312526387905/orcl-ex99_1.htm", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.sourceRefs.0.url" }, { "path": "fundamentals.sourceRefs.0.date", "value": "2026-09-10", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.sourceRefs.0.date" }, { "path": "fundamentals.sourceRefs.1.name", "value": "Oracle 10-Q", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.sourceRefs.1.name" }, { "path": "fundamentals.sourceRefs.1.url", "value": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1341439/000119312526389274/orcl-20260831.htm", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.sourceRefs.1.url" }, { "path": "fundamentals.sourceRefs.1.date", "value": "2026-09-11", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.sourceRefs.1.date" }, { "path": "fundamentals.sourceRefs.2.date", "value": "2026-10-09", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.sourceRefs.2.date" }, { "path": "earnings.beatNote", "value": "Premier trimestre de l’exercice 2027 (clos le 31 août 2026) : bénéfice par action GAAP de 1,56 $ (+55 %), ajusté de 1,92 $ (+30 %). Guidance du deuxième trimestre : revenus en hausse de 30 à 34 %, bénéfice ajusté de 1,85 à 1,93 $ par action. Exercice complet : au moins 90 Md$ de revenus et 8,10 $ de bénéfice ajusté. Ces prévisions dépendent de la mise en service des capacités, pas seulement des commandes. Dividende trimestriel de 0,50 $ par action, payé le 23 octobre aux actionnaires inscrits au 9 octobre : le cours d’ouverture du 9 octobre en est mécaniquement réduit. Aucune date de prochaine publication n’est confirmée par l’émetteur.", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/earnings.beatNote" }, { "path": "earnings.nextEarnings", "value": "Deuxième trimestre attendu vers le 10 décembre 2026 selon une source calendaire unique, non confirmée par l’émetteur ; hors de l’horizon du plan.", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/earnings.nextEarnings" }, { "path": "earnings.sourceRefs.0.name", "value": "Oracle 8-K / Exhibit 99.1", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/earnings.sourceRefs.0.name" }, { "path": "earnings.sourceRefs.0.url", "value": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1341439/000119312526387905/orcl-ex99_1.htm", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/earnings.sourceRefs.0.url" }, { "path": "earnings.sourceRefs.0.date", "value": "2026-09-10", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/earnings.sourceRefs.0.date" }, { "path": "earnings.sourceRefs.1.name", "value": "Oracle 10-Q", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/earnings.sourceRefs.1.name" }, { "path": "earnings.sourceRefs.1.url", "value": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1341439/000119312526389274/orcl-20260831.htm", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/earnings.sourceRefs.1.url" }, { "path": "earnings.sourceRefs.1.date", "value": "2026-09-11", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/earnings.sourceRefs.1.date" }, { "path": "capitalStructure.sharesOutstanding", "value": "3 031 501 149 actions au 21 septembre 2026 (circulaire de procuration), contre 3 023 736 000 au 7 septembre (page de garde du 10-Q)", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/capitalStructure.sharesOutstanding" }, { "path": "capitalStructure.sharesAuthorized", "value": "Onze milliards d’actions ordinaires autorisées, selon le bilan du 10-Q ; aucune augmentation soumise à l’assemblée du 18 novembre.", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/capitalStructure.sharesAuthorized" }, { "path": "capitalStructure.shareHistory", "value": "Le nombre d’actions en circulation est passé d’environ 2,880 à 3,024 milliards entre le 31 mai et le 31 août 2026, surtout à cause des quelque 141 millions d’actions émises via le programme « at-the-market », pour 19,9 Md$ nets ; il atteint 3,0315 milliards au 21 septembre. À cela s’ajoutent cinquante mille actions préférentielles obligatoirement convertibles au 15 janvier 2029, chacune en 499,8126 à 624,7657 actions ordinaires selon le cours : entre environ vingt-cinq et trente et un millions d’actions supplémentaires. Un nombre d’actions entièrement dilué à date n’est pas calculable depuis ces seuls dépôts. Les emprunts, 125,3 Md$ au 31 août contre 129,5 Md$ au 31 mai, ont baissé sur le trimestre : l’émission d’actions a financé le capex et des remboursements. Larry Ellison détient 38,2 % du capital et en a nanti 413 millions d’actions en garantie d’emprunts personnels ; le conseil juge ce nantissement sans risque matériel, aucune action n’étant sur un compte à marge. Côté dette, 42,7 Md$ d’obligations ont été émises sur l’exercice 2026 ; S&P a abaissé la note à BBB-, un cran au-dessus de la catégorie spéculative, le 9 juillet 2026 (voir les actualités), et Moody’s garde une perspective négative. Le 10-K prévient qu’un abaissement renchérirait la dette et pourrait peser sur les actions. La déclaration d’enregistrement n° 333-277990 reste utilisable : un nouveau programme d’actions ne demande qu’un supplément de prospectus. Verdict : dilution élevée et déjà réalisée ; le prochain besoin de capital passera par une nouvelle émission ou par davantage d’une dette déjà au bas de la catégorie d’investissement.", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/capitalStructure.shareHistory" }, { "path": "capitalStructure.atm.authorized", "value": "20 Md$ (supplément du 23 juin 2026)", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/capitalStructure.atm.authorized" }, { "path": "capitalStructure.atm.used", "value": "19,9 Md$ nets, environ 141 millions d’actions", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/capitalStructure.atm.used" }, { "path": "capitalStructure.atm.remaining", "value": "Épuisé au 31 août 2026 ; aucun nouveau programme ni dépôt de financement relevé jusqu’au 8 octobre, mais la déclaration d’enregistrement n° 333-277990 permet d’en ouvrir un par simple supplément", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/capitalStructure.atm.remaining" }, { "path": "capitalStructure.sourceRefs.0.name", "value": "Oracle 10-Q", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/capitalStructure.sourceRefs.0.name" }, { "path": "capitalStructure.sourceRefs.0.url", "value": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1341439/000119312526389274/orcl-20260831.htm", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/capitalStructure.sourceRefs.0.url" }, { "path": "capitalStructure.sourceRefs.0.date", "value": "2026-09-11", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/capitalStructure.sourceRefs.0.date" }, { "path": "capitalStructure.sourceRefs.1.name", "value": "Oracle 424B5", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/capitalStructure.sourceRefs.1.name" }, { "path": "capitalStructure.sourceRefs.1.url", "value": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1341439/000119312526278585/d120346d424b5.htm", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/capitalStructure.sourceRefs.1.url" }, { "path": "capitalStructure.sourceRefs.1.date", "value": "2026-06-23", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/capitalStructure.sourceRefs.1.date" }, { "path": "capitalStructure.sourceRefs.2.name", "value": "Oracle 10-K", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/capitalStructure.sourceRefs.2.name" }, { "path": "capitalStructure.sourceRefs.2.url", "value": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1341439/000119312526277521/orcl-20260531.htm", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/capitalStructure.sourceRefs.2.url" }, { "path": "capitalStructure.sourceRefs.2.date", "value": "2026-06-22", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/capitalStructure.sourceRefs.2.date" }, { "path": "capitalStructure.sourceRefs.3.name", "value": "Oracle DEF 14A", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/capitalStructure.sourceRefs.3.name" }, { "path": "capitalStructure.sourceRefs.3.url", "value": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1341439/000119312526402816/orcl-20260925.htm", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/capitalStructure.sourceRefs.3.url" }, { "path": "capitalStructure.sourceRefs.3.date", "value": "2026-09-25", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/capitalStructure.sourceRefs.3.date" }, { "path": "filingsReview.summary", "value": "Sept dépôts décisionnels ouverts et hachés. Ils séparent quatre choses que le marché mélange : les résultats, qui sont bons ; le financement, par actions et par dette, qui dilue et endette ; l’offre de titres des initiés, qui se réduit (plan de cession de Larry Ellison sur 50 millions d’actions annulé le 12 septembre, achat d’un administrateur) ; et la gouvernance, où la circulaire du 25 septembre ne soumet ni augmentation de capital ni nouveau plan d’actions. Aucun dépôt de financement n’apparaît entre le 14 septembre et le 8 octobre. Les deux nouvelles qui ont fait bouger le titre depuis, l’avis de force majeure sur Project Jupiter et les revenus d’OpenAI, ne figurent dans aucun dépôt : elles viennent de la presse.", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/filingsReview.summary" }, { "path": "filingsReview.filings.0.date", "value": "2026-09-10", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/filingsReview.filings.0.date" }, { "path": "filingsReview.filings.0.form", "value": "8-K / Exhibit 99.1", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/filingsReview.filings.0.form" }, { "path": "filingsReview.filings.0.accession", "value": "0001193125-26-387905", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/filingsReview.filings.0.accession" }, { "path": "filingsReview.filings.0.finding", "value": "Communiqué du premier trimestre de l’exercice 2027 : chiffre d’affaires de 19,3 Md$ (+30 %), infrastructure cloud en hausse de 121 %, carnet de commandes contractuel (RPO) de 664 Md$, flux de trésorerie libre trimestriel négatif d’environ 5 Md$, prévision annuelle relevée à au moins 90 Md$ de revenus ; dividende trimestriel de 0,50 $ par action payé le 23 octobre aux actionnaires inscrits au 9 octobre.", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/filingsReview.filings.0.finding" }, { "path": "filingsReview.filings.0.url", "value": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1341439/000119312526387905/orcl-ex99_1.htm", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/filingsReview.filings.0.url" }, { "path": "filingsReview.filings.1.date", "value": "2026-09-11", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/filingsReview.filings.1.date" }, { "path": "filingsReview.filings.1.form", "value": "10-Q", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/filingsReview.filings.1.form" }, { "path": "filingsReview.filings.1.accession", "value": "0001193125-26-389274", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/filingsReview.filings.1.accession" }, { "path": "filingsReview.filings.1.finding", "value": "Le rapport trimestriel confirme l’usage complet du programme d’émission d’actions « at-the-market » (environ 141 millions d’actions pour 19,9 Md$ nets) et un capex de 28,5 Md$. Le flux opérationnel de 23,1 Md$ inclut 11,4 Md$ de prépaiements clients ; les emprunts reculent de 129,5 à 125,3 Md$. Il mentionne 288 Md$ de loyers futurs hors bilan et une action collective sur l’infrastructure cloud, amendée le 14 juillet. Item 5 : Larry Ellison avait adopté le 22 juin un plan 10b5-1 lui permettant de vendre jusqu’à 50 millions d’actions jusqu’au 24 octobre. Après la clôture du trimestre, le plan de restructuration 2026 a été augmenté d’environ 700 M$.", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/filingsReview.filings.1.finding" }, { "path": "filingsReview.filings.1.url", "value": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1341439/000119312526389274/orcl-20260831.htm", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/filingsReview.filings.1.url" }, { "path": "filingsReview.filings.2.date", "value": "2026-09-14", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/filingsReview.filings.2.date" }, { "path": "filingsReview.filings.2.form", "value": "8-K / Exhibit 99.1", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/filingsReview.filings.2.form" }, { "path": "filingsReview.filings.2.accession", "value": "0001193125-26-389753", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/filingsReview.filings.2.accession" }, { "path": "filingsReview.filings.2.finding", "value": "Communiqué du 12 septembre, déposé le 14 : Larry Ellison a annulé son plan de cession 10b5-1 (jusqu’à 50 millions d’actions, révélé la veille par le 10-Q) sans qu’aucune action n’ait été vendue, et n’a pas d’autre plan de vente. Le signal porte sur l’offre de titres du premier actionnaire, pas sur les résultats.", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/filingsReview.filings.2.finding" }, { "path": "filingsReview.filings.2.url", "value": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1341439/000119312526389753/d20034dex991.htm", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/filingsReview.filings.2.url" }, { "path": "filingsReview.filings.3.date", "value": "2026-06-23", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/filingsReview.filings.3.date" }, { "path": "filingsReview.filings.3.form", "value": "424B5", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/filingsReview.filings.3.form" }, { "path": "filingsReview.filings.3.accession", "value": "0001193125-26-278585", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/filingsReview.filings.3.accession" }, { "path": "filingsReview.filings.3.finding", "value": "Supplément de prospectus d’un programme d’émission d’actions « at-the-market » plafonné à 20 Md$, qui ajoute des agents placeurs. Il fixe la capacité juridique d’émission ; le 10-Q suivant montre qu’elle a été entièrement utilisée au premier trimestre.", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/filingsReview.filings.3.finding" }, { "path": "filingsReview.filings.3.url", "value": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1341439/000119312526278585/d120346d424b5.htm", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/filingsReview.filings.3.url" }, { "path": "filingsReview.filings.4.date", "value": "2026-06-22", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/filingsReview.filings.4.date" }, { "path": "filingsReview.filings.4.form", "value": "10-K", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/filingsReview.filings.4.form" }, { "path": "filingsReview.filings.4.accession", "value": "0001193125-26-277521", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/filingsReview.filings.4.accession" }, { "path": "filingsReview.filings.4.finding", "value": "Rapport annuel : aucun client au-dessus de dix pour cent du chiffre d’affaires, mais une concentration non nominative sur quelques grands clients de l’infrastructure cloud, et des actions préférentielles obligatoirement convertibles en janvier 2029 dont la conversion, entre 499,8126 et 624,7657 actions ordinaires, dépend du cours.", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/filingsReview.filings.4.finding" }, { "path": "filingsReview.filings.4.url", "value": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1341439/000119312526277521/orcl-20260531.htm", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/filingsReview.filings.4.url" }, { "path": "filingsReview.filings.5.date", "value": "2026-09-25", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/filingsReview.filings.5.date" }, { "path": "filingsReview.filings.5.form", "value": "DEF 14A", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/filingsReview.filings.5.form" }, { "path": "filingsReview.filings.5.accession", "value": "0001193125-26-402816", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/filingsReview.filings.5.accession" }, { "path": "filingsReview.filings.5.finding", "value": "Circulaire de l’assemblée du 18 novembre 2026 : 3 031 501 149 actions en circulation au 21 septembre ; Larry Ellison détient 1 158 375 174 actions (38,2 %) et en a nanti 413 millions en garantie d’emprunts personnels, sans compte sur marge selon le conseil. Quatre résolutions (administrateurs, rémunération, auditeur, une proposition d’actionnaire) : aucune augmentation du capital autorisé ni nouveau plan d’actions soumis au vote.", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/filingsReview.filings.5.finding" }, { "path": "filingsReview.filings.5.url", "value": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1341439/000119312526402816/orcl-20260925.htm", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/filingsReview.filings.5.url" }, { "path": "filingsReview.filings.6.date", "value": "2026-10-01", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/filingsReview.filings.6.date" }, { "path": "filingsReview.filings.6.form", "value": "Formulaire 4", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/filingsReview.filings.6.form" }, { "path": "filingsReview.filings.6.accession", "value": "0001341439-26-000099", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/filingsReview.filings.6.accession" }, { "path": "filingsReview.filings.6.finding", "value": "Stephen Rusckowski, administrateur, achète 25 000 actions sur le marché le 29 septembre, au prix moyen pondéré de 139,352 $ (fourchette de 138,96 à 139,74 $), soit environ 3,5 M$, par son trust personnel ; il en détient 25 390 par ce trust après l’opération.", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/filingsReview.filings.6.finding" }, { "path": "filingsReview.filings.6.url", "value": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1341439/000134143926000099/form4.xml", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/filingsReview.filings.6.url" }, { "path": "filingsReview.contrarianRisks.0", "value": "Le carnet de commandes est concentré sur quelques grands clients d’infrastructure cloud que les dépôts ne nomment pas ; S&P estime qu’OpenAI en pèse environ la moitié (carnet de 638 Md$ au 31 mai), et ses revenus réels sont discutés.", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/filingsReview.contrarianRisks.0" }, { "path": "filingsReview.contrarianRisks.1", "value": "Un avis de force majeure protège Oracle face à son promoteur, mais il signale aussi qu’un campus de 2,45 GW peut glisser : des revenus décalés, pas des coûts de construction décalés.", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/filingsReview.contrarianRisks.1" }, { "path": "filingsReview.contrarianRisks.2", "value": "Les engagements de location non comptabilisés (288 Md$) dépassent la dette ; ils entreront au bilan à mesure que les centres de données ouvriront.", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/filingsReview.contrarianRisks.2" }, { "path": "filingsReview.contrarianRisks.4", "value": "Un achat de 3,5 M$ par un administrateur est un signal de conviction, pas un flux capable de soutenir un titre qui échange plus de 4 Md$ par séance.", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/filingsReview.contrarianRisks.4" }, { "path": "filingsReview.contrarianRisks.5", "value": "Le nantissement de 413 millions d’actions par Larry Ellison est jugé sans risque par le conseil ; une baisse prolongée du cours le rendrait plus visible.", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/filingsReview.contrarianRisks.5" }, { "path": "technicals.rsi14", "value": 41.61, "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/values/technicals/rsi14" }, { "path": "technicals.macd", "value": -1.92, "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/values/technicals/macd" }, { "path": "technicals.macdSignal", "value": -1.73, 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"07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/values/technicals/ema200" }, { "path": "technicals.atr14", "value": 6.49, "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/values/technicals/atr14" }, { "path": "technicals.badges.0", "value": "58 % sous le plus haut sur un an", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/technicals.badges.0" }, { "path": "technicals.badges.1", "value": "Couloir de 131,58 $ à 146,94 $", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/technicals.badges.1" }, { "path": "technicals.badges.2", "value": "ATR de 6,49 $", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/technicals.badges.2" }, { "path": "technicals.supports.0", "value": 134.66, "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/values/technicals/supports/0" }, { "path": "technicals.supports.1", "value": 131.58, "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/values/technicals/supports/1" }, { "path": "technicals.supports.2", "value": 114.5, "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/values/technicals/supports/2" }, { "path": "technicals.resistances.0", "value": 153.6, "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/values/technicals/resistances/0" }, { "path": "technicals.resistances.1", "value": 166, "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/values/technicals/resistances/1" }, { "path": "technicals.resistances.2", "value": 170.7, "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/values/technicals/resistances/2" }, { "path": "technicals.setupNote", "value": "Le titre clôture à 135,69 $, sous ses moyennes à vingt (142,49 $), cinquante (145,56 $) et deux cents séances (173,05 $), RSI à 42, MACD sous sa ligne de signal. Depuis le plus bas du 28 septembre (131,58 $), il oscille dans un couloir dont le haut est le plus haut du 6 octobre (146,94 $), juste au-dessus de la moyenne à cinquante séances. La séance du 8 octobre l’a ramené vers le bas du couloir, sur 1,2 fois le volume moyen des vingt séances précédentes. Avant activation, aucune entrée ; une clôture sous 131,58 $ abandonne le scénario. Activation sur une clôture au-dessus de $146.94. Après activation, stop par ordre sous $140.26, le plus bas du 2 octobre, soit 1,03 ATR sous le déclencheur. Supports : 134,66 $, 131,58 $ et 114,50 $, le plus bas annuel. Résistances : 153,60 $, 166,00 $ et 170,70 $, les plus hauts d’avant et d’après les résultats de septembre.", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/technicals.setupNote" }, { "path": "technicals.wyckoff", "value": "Phase de baisse depuis les résultats, tentative de base au-dessus du plus bas du 28 septembre ; non utilisée pour fixer les niveaux.", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/technicals.wyckoff" }, { "path": "technicals.sourceRefs.0.date", "value": "2026-10-09", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/technicals.sourceRefs.0.date" }, { "path": "options.skew", "value": "Chaîne d’options refusée par la source à la collecte du 9 octobre (limite de requêtes)", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/options.skew" }, { "path": "options.sourceRefs.0.date", "value": "2026-10-09", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/options.sourceRefs.0.date" }, { "path": "shortInterest.siPct", "value": "2,73 % du flottant", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/shortInterest.siPct" }, { "path": "shortInterest.daysToCover", "value": "1,82 jours, date de règlement non précisée par le snapshot", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/shortInterest.daysToCover" }, { "path": "shortInterest.trend", "value": "Environ 50,8 M d’actions vendues à découvert pour un flottant de 1,86 Md, flottant qui exclut la participation de Larry Ellison. Positions faibles pour une capitalisation de cette taille : la baisse vient du comptant, pas d’un pari vendeur ; aucune thèse de rachat forcé.", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/shortInterest.trend" }, { "path": "shortInterest.sourceRefs.0.date", "value": "2026-10-09", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/shortInterest.sourceRefs.0.date" }, { "path": "insiders.signal", "value": "Un achat d’administrateur le lendemain du plus bas, après des ventes de dirigeants. Le 29 septembre, Stephen Rusckowski achète 25 000 actions à 139,35 $ en moyenne (environ 3,5 M$), seul achat sur le marché d’un initié relevé sur un an. En septembre, ventes de marché d’un des co-directeurs généraux, Michael Sicilia (10 882 actions le 16, 22 562 le 22 à 151,59 $), et de la responsable comptable (2 631 le 22), chaque fois précédées d’un formulaire 144 ; le reste des mouvements se compose d’exercices d’options et de retenues fiscales. Larry Ellison avait adopté le 22 juin un plan lui permettant de vendre jusqu’à 50 millions d’actions, révélé par le 10-Q du 11 septembre ; il l’a annulé le 12 septembre sans avoir rien vendu (8-K déposé le 14). Le flux officiel signale une couverture partielle (amendement non résolu) : aucun solde net n’est affirmé.", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/insiders.signal" }, { "path": "insiders.sourceRefs.0.name", "value": "Données de marché datées (provenance hashée) : formulaires 4 et 144", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/insiders.sourceRefs.0.name" }, { "path": "insiders.sourceRefs.0.date", "value": "2026-10-09", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/insiders.sourceRefs.0.date" }, { "path": "insiders.sourceRefs.1.name", "value": "Oracle Formulaire 4", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/insiders.sourceRefs.1.name" }, { "path": "insiders.sourceRefs.1.url", "value": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1341439/000134143926000099/form4.xml", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/insiders.sourceRefs.1.url" }, { "path": "insiders.sourceRefs.1.date", "value": "2026-10-01", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/insiders.sourceRefs.1.date" }, { "path": "insiders.sourceRefs.2.name", "value": "Oracle 8-K / Exhibit 99.1", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/insiders.sourceRefs.2.name" }, { "path": "insiders.sourceRefs.2.url", "value": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1341439/000119312526389753/d20034dex991.htm", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/insiders.sourceRefs.2.url" }, { "path": "insiders.sourceRefs.2.date", "value": "2026-09-14", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/insiders.sourceRefs.2.date" }, { "path": "macro.indicators.0.value", "value": "2026-10-08", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/macro.indicators.0.value" }, { "path": "macro.indicators.0.signal", "value": "135,69 $, séance complète", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/macro.indicators.0.signal" }, { "path": "macro.indicators.1.value", "value": "−1,72 %", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/macro.indicators.1.value" }, { "path": "macro.indicators.2.value", "value": "−16,05 %", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/macro.indicators.2.value" }, { "path": "macro.impact", "value": "Oracle finance sa croissance par la dette, par des loyers de long terme et, ce trimestre, par des actions : il est sensible aux taux longs, et le 8 octobre l’a rappelé : toute la chaîne de dépense IA a reculé, néo-clouds en tête, pendant que le logiciel tenait. Le titre réagit aussi à toute nouvelle sur la solvabilité de ses grands clients d’IA. Le régime de marché ne remplace pas ce test.", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/macro.impact" }, { "path": "risks.riskScore", "value": 7, "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/values/risks/riskScore" }, { "path": "risks.riskCards.0.points.0", "value": "Capex trimestriel de 28,5 Md$ supérieur au flux opérationnel, lui-même porté par 11,4 Md$ de prépaiements de clients.", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/risks.riskCards.0.points.0" }, { "path": "risks.riskCards.0.points.1", "value": "Programme d’actions de 20 Md$ épuisé ; 288 Md$ de loyers futurs hors bilan.", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/risks.riskCards.0.points.1" }, { "path": "risks.riskCards.1.points.0", "value": "Le 10-K mentionne une concentration sur quelques grands clients d’infrastructure cloud, sans les nommer ; S&P estime qu’OpenAI pèse environ la moitié du carnet de 638 Md$ au 31 mai.", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/risks.riskCards.1.points.0" }, { "path": "risks.riskCards.1.points.1", "value": "Le 8 octobre, un article sur les revenus d’OpenAI a coûté 5,5 % au titre en une séance.", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/risks.riskCards.1.points.1" }, { "path": "risks.riskCards.2.points.0", "value": "S&P a abaissé Oracle à BBB- le 9 juillet 2026, un cran au-dessus de la catégorie spéculative ; Moody’s garde une perspective négative.", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/risks.riskCards.2.points.0" }, { "path": "risks.riskCards.2.points.1", "value": "Le 10-K prévient qu’un abaissement renchérirait la dette et pourrait peser sur la valeur des obligations comme des actions.", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/risks.riskCards.2.points.1" }, { "path": "risks.riskCards.3.points.0", "value": "Avis de force majeure sur Project Jupiter (2,45 GW) : gazoduc retardé, alimentation électrique encore soumise à des procédures réglementaires (CNBC, 24 septembre).", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/risks.riskCards.3.points.0" }, { "path": "risks.riskCards.4.points.0", "value": "Titre 58 % sous son plus haut sur un an, sous ses trois moyennes ; ATR de 6,49 $.", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/risks.riskCards.4.points.0" }, { "path": "risks.pedagogy", "value": "Oracle montre qu’un carnet de commandes record ne suffit pas quand le client principal finance lui-même ses achats sur la promesse de ses revenus. Le 8 octobre, un seul article sur OpenAI a fait perdre 5,5 % au titre, presque autant qu’à CoreWeave. Côté marché, environ 4,5 Md$ s’échangent par séance : la liquidité n’est pas le problème, le gap de nouvelles l’est. La bonne question n’est pas « Oracle a-t-il des commandes ? » mais « qui paie la construction, et à quel prix, jusqu’à ce qu’elles deviennent du cash ? ».", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/risks.pedagogy" }, { "path": "tradeIdea.statusNote", "value": "Surveiller. Avant activation : aucune entrée ; une clôture sous 131,58 $ abandonne le scénario. Activation : clôture au-dessus de 146,94 $, puis achat à l’ouverture suivante seulement sous 149,07 $, ou par ordre limité à ce plafond pendant trois séances, annulé après une clôture sous 146,94 $ et jamais laissé actif sur une ouverture sous 140,26 $. Après activation : ordre stop de vente placé juste sous 140,26 $, actif en séance ; la clôture n’est pas la règle de sortie. Plan valable jusqu’au 20 novembre : sans clôture au-dessus de 146,94 $ d’ici là, il expire. Au close du 8 octobre, le titre est sous le déclencheur : le plan n’est pas activé.", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/tradeIdea.statusNote" }, { "path": "tradeIdea.entry", "value": 146.94, "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/values/tradeIdea/entry" }, { "path": "tradeIdea.stop", "value": 140.26, "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/values/tradeIdea/stop" }, { "path": "tradeIdea.tp1", "value": 162.3, "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/values/tradeIdea/tp1" }, { "path": "tradeIdea.tp2", "value": 169.98, "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/values/tradeIdea/tp2" }, { "path": "tradeIdea.stopPct", "value": "-4.5%", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/tradeIdea.stopPct" }, { "path": "tradeIdea.tp1Pct", "value": "+10.5%", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/tradeIdea.tp1Pct" }, { "path": "tradeIdea.tp2Pct", "value": "+15.7%", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/tradeIdea.tp2Pct" }, { "path": "tradeIdea.rr", "value": "1:2.30 TP1 / 1:3.45 TP2 au déclencheur ; 1:1.50 / 1:2.37 au plafond 149,07 $", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/tradeIdea.rr" }, { "path": "tradeIdea.entryNote", "value": "Déclencheur sur clôture au-dessus du plus haut du 6 octobre, pas sur un franchissement en séance. Entrée à l’ouverture suivante uniquement sous 149,07 $ : au-delà, le R/R vers TP1 tomberait sous 1,5 avec le même stop. Ce plafond n’est qu’à 2,13 $ au-dessus du déclencheur, soit 0,33 ATR. Mesure : sur les 250 dernières séances, 61 ouvertures ont dépassé la clôture de la veille de plus de 2,13 $, soit environ 24 % ; l’écart d’ouverture médian, dans un sens ou dans l’autre, vaut 2,06 $. Sur la série, 15 clôtures ont cassé un plus haut de vingt séances : 6 ont fini à moins de 1,45 % au-dessus du niveau cassé, l’écart relatif du plafond, et 4 ont ensuite ouvert sous ce seuil. Plan de repli : si l’ouverture dépasse le plafond, un ordre à cours limité à 149,07 $, valable trois séances, garde le même R/R et le même stop ; il est annulé après toute clôture sous le déclencheur, 146,94 $, n’est pas laissé actif à l’ouverture d’une séance sous le stop, 140,26 $, ni si le stop est touché avant exécution. Rejoué avec ces bornes sur les 11 cassures non achetables à l’ouverture, l’ordre aurait été exécuté 6 fois, sans que le stop soit touché la même séance, dont 1 avec une clôture sous le niveau cassé le jour même ; aucun retrait sur ouverture sous le stop. Objectifs : TP1 à une hauteur de couloir au-dessus du déclencheur, sous le plus haut d’après résultats (166,00 $) ; TP2 à une fois et demie, sous le plus haut d’avant résultats (170,70 $). Premier frein : le plus haut du 22 septembre (153,60 $) ; y prendre une partie des gains ou remonter le stop au déclencheur. Liquidité : environ 4,5 Md$ échangés par séance, médiane des vingt dernières : spread négligeable à taille de particulier. Gap sous le stop : sur les 250 dernières séances, 11 ouvertures ont sauté sous la clôture de la veille de plus que la distance déclencheur-stop (6,68 $), et 5 de plus que la distance plafond-stop (8,81 $) : la perte réelle peut dépasser le budget prévu, surtout sur une nouvelle liée à OpenAI ou à un campus ; réduire la taille d’environ un quart pour absorber un tel écart. Les résultats des hyperscalers de fin octobre (dates hors de la fenêtre collectée) peuvent provoquer des écarts d’ouverture : pas d’activation la veille d’une de ces publications. Résultats d’Oracle attendus vers le 10 décembre (date non confirmée) : aucune entrée dans les cinq séances qui précèdent ; toute position est soldée ou réduite de moitié à la clôture de la veille. Dividende de 0,50 $ détaché le 9 octobre : niveaux non ajustés, effet négligeable (0,08 ATR). Exemple de taille, non personnalisé : avec un budget de perte de 100 $, le risque au plafond, 8,81 $ par action, donne 11 actions avant réduction, 8 après la réduction d’un quart ; avec 1 000 $, 113 actions avant réduction, 84 après la réduction d’un quart.", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/tradeIdea.entryNote" }, { "path": "tradeIdea.horizon", "value": "Dix à vingt séances après activation. Plan valable jusqu’au 20 novembre : sans clôture au-dessus de 146,94 $ d’ici là, il expire. Toute position est soldée ou réduite de moitié à la clôture de la veille des résultats attendus vers le 10 décembre (date non confirmée)", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/tradeIdea.horizon" }, { "path": "tradeIdea.thesis", "value": "Oracle reste une machine de croissance dont le financement inquiète, et le marché le traite de plus en plus comme un néo-cloud : il a reculé avec CoreWeave sur la nouvelle d’OpenAI du 8 octobre, et seul sur celle du chantier Jupiter le 24 septembre. Depuis le 28 septembre, le titre a cessé de faire des plus bas et oscille sous la moyenne à cinquante séances ; un administrateur a acheté le lendemain du plus bas, à 139,35 $. Ne pas anticiper : une clôture au-dessus de $146.94 montrerait que les vendeurs d’après résultats sont absorbés, en reprenant le haut du couloir et la moyenne à cinquante séances. Avant cela, une clôture sous 131,58 $ abandonne le dossier. Après activation, l’ordre stop sous $140.26 limite le coût d’une fausse sortie. TP1 à 162,30 $ et TP2 à 169,98 $, sous les plus hauts de septembre où les acheteurs des résultats pourraient revendre. Côté exécution : liquidité abondante, mais gaps de nouvelles fréquents ; la taille se fixe sur la distance au stop.", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/tradeIdea.thesis" }, { "path": "tradeIdea.catalysts.0", "value": "Une clôture au-dessus de 146,94 $ avec le groupe des clouds financés à crédit (CoreWeave, Nebius) stabilisé.", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/tradeIdea.catalysts.0" }, { "path": "tradeIdea.invalidation.0", "value": "Avant activation : une clôture sous 131,58 $, plus bas du 28 septembre, abandonne le scénario.", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/tradeIdea.invalidation.0" }, { "path": "tradeIdea.invalidation.1", "value": "Après activation : sortie par l’ordre stop placé juste sous 140,26 $, en séance, sans attendre la clôture.", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/tradeIdea.invalidation.1" }, { "path": "tradeIdea.invalidation.2", "value": "Ouverture au-dessus de 149,07 $ après la clôture de déclenchement : pas d’achat à l’ouverture ; seul l’ordre limité à 149,07 $ reste valable trois séances.", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/tradeIdea.invalidation.2" }, { "path": "tradeIdea.invalidation.3", "value": "Aucune clôture au-dessus de 146,94 $ au 20 novembre : le plan expire.", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/tradeIdea.invalidation.3" }, { "path": "tradeIdea.invalidation.4", "value": "Un nouveau dépôt de financement en actions, un abaissement de la note de crédit sous la catégorie d’investissement ou la confirmation d’un retard de Jupiter au-delà de 2028 affaibliraient la thèse.", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/tradeIdea.invalidation.4" }, { "path": "globalScore.keyTakeawaysPositive.0", "value": "Infrastructure cloud en hausse de 121 %, visible dans les comptes.", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/globalScore.keyTakeawaysPositive.0" }, { "path": "globalScore.keyTakeawaysPositive.1", "value": "Carnet de commandes contractuel de 664 Md$, prévision relevée à au moins 90 Md$ de revenus.", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/globalScore.keyTakeawaysPositive.1" }, { "path": "globalScore.keyTakeawaysNegative.2", "value": "Sensibilité directe aux nouvelles sur OpenAI : −5,5 % le 8 octobre.", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/globalScore.keyTakeawaysNegative.2" }, { "path": "globalScore.mindsetTip", "value": "Un carnet de commandes n’est pas du cash. Regarder qui paie la construction avant de regarder qui signe la commande, et attendre que le titre reprenne 146,94 $ plutôt que d’acheter le bas du couloir sur une intuition.", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/globalScore.mindsetTip" }, { "path": "social.sourceRefs.0.date", "value": "2026-10-09", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/social.sourceRefs.0.date" }, { "path": "disclaimer", "value": "Document de recherche éducatif. Ni conseil financier, ni signal de trading. Statut surveiller : aucun ordre actif ; plan non activé au close du 8 octobre.", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/disclaimer" }, { "path": "blastRadius.asOf", "value": "2026-10-08", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/blastRadius.asOf" }, { "path": "blastRadius.observationTime", "value": "2026-10-09T19:58:11.346439814Z", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/blastRadius.observationTime" }, { "path": "blastRadius.window", "value": "Rendements quotidiens communs du 2026-01-22 au 2026-10-08", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/blastRadius.window" }, { "path": "blastRadius.methodology", "value": "Les séries sont alignées sur les mêmes dates de clôture et converties en rendements logarithmiques journaliers communs, du 22 janvier 2026 au 8 octobre 2026. La corrélation mesure le co-mouvement ; le bêta mesure la sensibilité du rendement de Oracle à celui du comparable ; le R² est la corrélation au carré. Les rendements à cinq et vingt et une séances sont des rendements simples de clôture à clôture, sans dividendes. Les groupes sont définis par le lien économique, pas par la corrélation.", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/blastRadius.methodology" }, { "path": "blastRadius.groups.0.order", "value": 1, "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/values/blastRadius/groups/0/order" }, { "path": "blastRadius.groups.0.symbols.0.eventRisk", "value": "Aucune publication dans la fenêtre collectée (calendrier couvert jusqu’au 20 octobre) ; son capex reste le signal à suivre", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/blastRadius.groups.0.symbols.0.eventRisk" }, { "path": "blastRadius.groups.0.symbols.0.correlation", "value": 0.4953, "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/values/blastRadius/groups/0/symbols/0/correlation" }, { "path": "blastRadius.groups.0.symbols.0.beta", "value": 0.7994, "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/values/blastRadius/groups/0/symbols/0/beta" }, { "path": "blastRadius.groups.0.symbols.0.r2", "value": 0.2453, "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/values/blastRadius/groups/0/symbols/0/r2" }, { "path": "blastRadius.groups.0.symbols.0.observations", "value": 179, "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/values/blastRadius/groups/0/symbols/0/observations" }, { "path": "blastRadius.groups.0.symbols.0.return5d", "value": 1.91, "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/values/blastRadius/groups/0/symbols/0/return5d" }, { "path": "blastRadius.groups.0.symbols.0.return21d", "value": 6.3, "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/values/blastRadius/groups/0/symbols/0/return21d" }, { "path": "blastRadius.groups.0.symbols.1.eventRisk", "value": "Aucune publication dans la fenêtre collectée (calendrier couvert jusqu’au 20 octobre) ; son capex reste le signal à suivre", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/blastRadius.groups.0.symbols.1.eventRisk" }, { "path": "blastRadius.groups.0.symbols.1.correlation", "value": 0.2499, "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/values/blastRadius/groups/0/symbols/1/correlation" }, { "path": "blastRadius.groups.0.symbols.1.beta", "value": 0.4246, "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/values/blastRadius/groups/0/symbols/1/beta" }, { "path": "blastRadius.groups.0.symbols.1.r2", "value": 0.0624, "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/values/blastRadius/groups/0/symbols/1/r2" }, { "path": "blastRadius.groups.0.symbols.1.observations", "value": 179, "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/values/blastRadius/groups/0/symbols/1/observations" }, { "path": "blastRadius.groups.0.symbols.1.return5d", "value": 2.35, "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/values/blastRadius/groups/0/symbols/1/return5d" }, { "path": "blastRadius.groups.0.symbols.1.return21d", "value": 0.66, "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/values/blastRadius/groups/0/symbols/1/return21d" }, { "path": "blastRadius.groups.0.symbols.2.eventRisk", "value": "Aucune publication dans la fenêtre collectée (calendrier couvert jusqu’au 20 octobre) ; son capex reste le signal à suivre", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/blastRadius.groups.0.symbols.2.eventRisk" }, { "path": "blastRadius.groups.0.symbols.2.correlation", "value": 0.2317, "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/values/blastRadius/groups/0/symbols/2/correlation" }, { "path": "blastRadius.groups.0.symbols.2.beta", "value": 0.4175, "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/values/blastRadius/groups/0/symbols/2/beta" }, { "path": "blastRadius.groups.0.symbols.2.r2", "value": 0.0537, "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/values/blastRadius/groups/0/symbols/2/r2" }, { "path": "blastRadius.groups.0.symbols.2.observations", "value": 179, "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/values/blastRadius/groups/0/symbols/2/observations" }, { "path": "blastRadius.groups.0.symbols.2.return5d", "value": 2.97, "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/values/blastRadius/groups/0/symbols/2/return5d" }, { "path": "blastRadius.groups.0.symbols.2.return21d", "value": 5.33, "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/values/blastRadius/groups/0/symbols/2/return21d" }, { "path": "blastRadius.groups.1.order", "value": 1, "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/values/blastRadius/groups/1/order" }, { "path": "blastRadius.groups.1.symbols.0.readThrough", "value": "Même modèle de location de capacité financée par dette, exposition commune aux grands laboratoires d’IA ; c’est le comparable qui a le plus bougé avec Oracle le 8 octobre.", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/blastRadius.groups.1.symbols.0.readThrough" }, { "path": "blastRadius.groups.1.symbols.0.eventRisk", "value": "Aucune publication dans la fenêtre collectée (jusqu’au 20 octobre) ; ses conditions de financement et ses renouvellements encadrent ceux d’Oracle", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/blastRadius.groups.1.symbols.0.eventRisk" }, { "path": "blastRadius.groups.1.symbols.0.correlation", "value": 0.5854, "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/values/blastRadius/groups/1/symbols/0/correlation" }, { "path": "blastRadius.groups.1.symbols.0.beta", "value": 0.3609, "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": 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"source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/blastRadius.contradictions.0" }, { "path": "blastRadius.contradictions.1", "value": "Le 8 octobre, Oracle a reculé plus que Microsoft ou le panier des logiciels, moins que CoreWeave, comme les puces et l’électricité : les dépôts ne nomment aucun client, le lien avec OpenAI vient de Stargate et de l’estimation de S&P, pas des comptes.", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": "analyses/ORCL/_runs/20261009/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "07ae53316e8da485f00a38b03b899da925c2d03d3a4d1ced02098aabca5f17ec", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/blastRadius.contradictions.1" }, { "path": "blastRadius.missingData.1", "value": "Calendrier de résultats des comparables couvert jusqu’au 20 octobre seulement : les publications des hyperscalers de fin octobre n’y figurent pas et ne sont pas datées ici.", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "source_artifact": 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