{ "ticker": "SMCI", "reference_close": "2026-09-23", "analysis_path": "data/analyses-data/SMCI.json", "analysis_sha256": "7d7e5bff72958a7604dc8883e1a3579e1705c5a33640c3871e6ea8a13527a081", "claims": [ { "path": "meta.date", "value": "2026-09-24", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/meta.date" }, { "path": "meta.dateDisplay", "value": "24 septembre 2026", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/meta.dateDisplay" }, { "path": "meta.version", "value": 3, "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/values/meta/version" }, { "path": "meta.levelsCloseDate", "value": "2026-09-23", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/meta.levelsCloseDate" }, { "path": "meta.description", "value": "Supermicro : des ventes qui doublent, un capital élargi en juin et un titre qui teste son plus haut depuis. Dossier au close du 23 septembre 2026, statut surveiller.", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/meta.description" }, { "path": "meta.ogDescription", "value": "Supermicro : prévision de 65 à 72 Md$, 130 millions d’actions à venir via les préférentielles, un client à 28,1 % ; niveaux à surveiller.", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/meta.ogDescription" }, { "path": "meta.lastMcpRefresh", "value": "2026-09-24T17:15:22.391563858Z", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/meta.lastMcpRefresh" }, { "path": "meta.levelsVerifiedAt", "value": "2026-09-24T17:15:22.391563858Z", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/meta.levelsVerifiedAt" }, { "path": "meta.statusHistory.0.at", "value": "2026-09-24T17:15:22.391563858Z", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/meta.statusHistory.0.at" }, { "path": "meta.statusHistory.0.note", "value": "refonte v3 du 24 septembre : nouveau scénario, clôture de référence du 2026-09-23", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/meta.statusHistory.0.note" }, { "path": "meta.statusHistory.0.close", "value": 41.44, "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/values/meta/statusHistory/0/close" }, { "path": "header.price", "value": 41.44, "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/values/header/price" }, { "path": "header.changePct", "value": -0.2407318247472312, "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/values/header/changePct" }, { "path": "header.metrics.marketCap", "value": "32,6 Md$", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/header.metrics.marketCap" }, { "path": "header.metrics.volume", "value": "40,9 M", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/header.metrics.volume" }, { "path": "header.metrics.evEbitda", "value": "12,0×", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/header.metrics.evEbitda" }, { "path": "verdict.score", "value": 46, "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/values/verdict/score" }, { "path": "verdict.confidence", "value": "Score éditorial non prédictif. Les chiffres d’entreprise viennent des dépôts SEC et des données XBRL officielles ; les niveaux, du close certifié du 23 septembre.", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/verdict.confidence" }, { "path": "verdict.summary", "value": "Supermicro assemble les baies de serveurs d’IA que les néo-clouds et les grands comptes installent. L’exercice 2026 a atteint 39,1 Md$ de ventes, et la société vise 65 à 72 Md$ pour l’exercice 2027. Le prix de cette croissance est le capital. En juin, 52,3 millions d’actions ont été vendues à 27,50 $, et 86,25 millions de certificats d’actions préférentielles, chacun représentant un vingtième d’action préférentielle, se convertiront obligatoirement en 2029 : au cours actuel, ces seules préférentielles donneront environ 131 millions d’actions ordinaires, en plus des 52,3 millions de juin. Le flux d’exploitation de l’exercice est négatif de 6,81 Md$, un client pèse 28,1 % des ventes, et Wally Liaw, ancien vice-président principal et ancien administrateur, est poursuivi pour violation des contrôles à l’exportation. Le titre a gagné 77 % depuis son plus bas du 17 juillet et bute sur 42,70 $. Pas d’entrée au cours actuel.", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/verdict.summary" }, { "path": "verdict.whyBuy.0", "value": "Les ventes du quatrième trimestre atteignent 11,1 Md$, contre 5,8 Md$ un an plus tôt, avec une marge brute remontée à 17,5 %.", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/verdict.whyBuy.0" }, { "path": "verdict.whyBuy.1", "value": "La prévision de l’exercice 2027 vise 65,0 à 72,0 Md$ de ventes, contre 39,1 Md$ sur l’exercice 2026.", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/verdict.whyBuy.1" }, { "path": "verdict.whyBuy.2", "value": "Au close du 23 septembre, préférentielles converties, la valeur d’entreprise représente 12,0 fois l’EBITDA GAAP de l’exercice 2026.", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/verdict.whyBuy.2" }, { "path": "verdict.whyAvoid.0", "value": "Les préférentielles convertibles ajouteront entre 131 et 157 millions d’actions en 2029, soit 20 à 24 % du nombre actuel, et le programme de vente de 1,25 Md$ peut vendre des actions depuis juillet : ses ventes ne sont pas encore publiées, le nombre du 31 juillet peut déjà être dépassé.", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/verdict.whyAvoid.0" }, { "path": "verdict.whyAvoid.1", "value": "Le flux d’exploitation de l’exercice 2026 est négatif de 6,81 Md$ : la croissance se finance par le capital et la dette.", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/verdict.whyAvoid.1" }, { "path": "verdict.whyAvoid.2", "value": "Un client non nommé a pesé 28,1 % des ventes de l’exercice 2026.", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/verdict.whyAvoid.2" }, { "path": "verdict.whyAvoid.3", "value": "Le 19 mars 2026, Wally Liaw, ancien vice-président principal et ancien administrateur, a été mis en examen pour violation des contrôles à l’exportation, et la SEC a adressé une demande de documents.", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/verdict.whyAvoid.3" }, { "path": "verdict.controlChecklist.0.evidence", "value": "Série quotidienne certifiée au close du 23 septembre, source de repli documentée.", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/verdict.controlChecklist.0.evidence" }, { "path": "verdict.controlChecklist.1.evidence", "value": "Actions ordinaires, préférentielles convertibles et programme de vente au fil de l’eau décrits au 10-K.", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/verdict.controlChecklist.1.evidence" }, { "path": "verdict.controlChecklist.1.action", "value": "Lire au prochain 10-Q les actions vendues depuis juillet.", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/verdict.controlChecklist.1.action" }, { "path": "verdict.controlChecklist.2.evidence", "value": "Mise en examen du 19 mars et demande de documents de la SEC, décrites au 10-K.", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/verdict.controlChecklist.2.evidence" }, { "path": "business.overview", "value": "

Supermicro conçoit et assemble des serveurs et des baies complètes pour l’IA, avec les processeurs de Nvidia et d’AMD, la mémoire, le stockage et le refroidissement par liquide. Ses clients sont des néo-clouds, des grandes entreprises et des opérateurs de centres de données. L’exercice 2026, clos le 30 juin, a atteint 39,1 Md$ de ventes contre 22,0 Md$ l’exercice précédent.

Le quatrième trimestre marque un tournant de marge : 17,5 % de marge brute contre 9,9 % au trimestre précédent et 9,5 % un an plus tôt, pour un résultat net de 1,18 Md$. La direction l’attribue à un meilleur mix de clients d’entreprise et à ses solutions de centres de données par blocs. Sur l’exercice entier, la marge brute reste à 10,8 %.

Cette croissance consomme du cash. Le flux d’exploitation de l’exercice est négatif de 6,81 Md$, surtout en stocks, et la société a levé en juin des actions ordinaires et des préférentielles convertibles pour plus de 5,4 Md$ nets. Un client a représenté 28,1 % des ventes, et une procédure pénale vise Wally Liaw, ancien vice-président principal et ancien administrateur, avec deux autres personnes, pour violation des contrôles à l’exportation.

", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/business.overview" }, { "path": "business.segments.0.name", "value": "Exercice 2026", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/business.segments.0.name" }, { "path": "business.segments.0.revenue", "value": "39,1 Md$", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/business.segments.0.revenue" }, { "path": "business.segments.0.pct", "value": "100 %", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/business.segments.0.pct" }, { "path": "business.segments.0.description", "value": "Contre 22,0 Md$ sur l’exercice 2025.", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/business.segments.0.description" }, { "path": "business.segments.1.revenue", "value": "11,1 Md$", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/business.segments.1.revenue" }, { "path": "business.segments.1.pct", "value": "28 %", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/business.segments.1.pct" }, { "path": "business.segments.1.description", "value": "Marge brute de 17,5 %.", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/business.segments.1.description" }, { "path": "business.sourceRefs.0.name", "value": "Supermicro 8-K / Exhibit 99.1", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/business.sourceRefs.0.name" }, { "path": "business.sourceRefs.0.url", "value": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1375365/000137536526000021/exhibit991_20260630.htm", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/business.sourceRefs.0.url" }, { "path": "business.sourceRefs.0.date", "value": "2026-08-11", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/business.sourceRefs.0.date" }, { "path": "business.sourceRefs.1.name", "value": "Supermicro 10-K", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/business.sourceRefs.1.name" }, { "path": "business.sourceRefs.1.url", "value": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1375365/000137536526000022/smci-20260630.htm", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/business.sourceRefs.1.url" }, { "path": "business.sourceRefs.1.date", "value": "2026-08-31", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/business.sourceRefs.1.date" }, { "path": "business.coverageMatrix.1.decision", "value": "Communiqué du 11 août et 10-K ; prochaine date non confirmée.", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/business.coverageMatrix.1.decision" }, { "path": "business.coverageMatrix.2.decision", "value": "Émissions de juin, préférentielles, convertibles et programme de vente lus dans le 10-K.", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/business.coverageMatrix.2.decision" }, { "path": "business.coverageMatrix.3.decision", "value": "Exercice clos le 30 juin 2026 lu dans les données XBRL officielles.", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/business.coverageMatrix.3.decision" }, { "path": "business.coverageMatrix.5.decision", "value": "Mise en examen et demande de la SEC décrites au 10-K ; issue inconnue.", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/business.coverageMatrix.5.decision" }, { "path": "news.0.date", "value": "2026-08-11", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/news.0.date" }, { "path": "news.0.title", "value": "Quatrième trimestre à 11,1 Md$ et marge brute de 17,5 %", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/news.0.title" }, { "path": "news.0.detail", "value": "Le lendemain, le titre a pris +19,0 % : le marché a salué la marge plus que les ventes.", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/news.0.detail" }, { "path": "news.0.sourceUrl", "value": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1375365/000137536526000021/exhibit991_20260630.htm", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/news.0.sourceUrl" }, { "path": "news.1.date", "value": "2026-08-31", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/news.1.date" }, { "path": "news.1.title", "value": "Le 10-K chiffre la dilution de juin", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/news.1.title" }, { "path": "news.1.detail", "value": "Actions ordinaires à 27,50 $, préférentielles convertibles en 2029 et programme de vente de 1,25 Md$ : le nombre d’actions va continuer de monter.", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/news.1.detail" }, { "path": "news.1.sourceUrl", "value": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1375365/000137536526000022/smci-20260630.htm", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/news.1.sourceUrl" }, { "path": "news.2.date", "value": "2026-06-12", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/news.2.date" }, { "path": "news.2.sourceUrl", "value": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1375365/000119312526269703/d45696d8k.htm", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/news.2.sourceUrl" }, { "path": "fundamentals.rows.0.value", "value": "11,1 Md$", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.rows.0.value" }, { "path": "fundamentals.rows.0.signal", "value": "Contre 5,8 Md$ un an plus tôt", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.rows.0.signal" }, { "path": "fundamentals.rows.1.value", "value": "17,5 %", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.rows.1.value" }, { "path": "fundamentals.rows.1.signal", "value": "9,9 % au trimestre précédent", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.rows.1.signal" }, { "path": "fundamentals.rows.2.metric", "value": "Prévision de l’exercice 2027", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.rows.2.metric" }, { "path": "fundamentals.rows.2.value", "value": "65,0 à 72,0 Md$", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.rows.2.value" }, { "path": "fundamentals.rows.2.signal", "value": "Premier trimestre à 14,5–15,5 Md$", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.rows.2.signal" }, { "path": "fundamentals.rows.3.value", "value": "8,7 Md$", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.rows.3.value" }, { "path": "fundamentals.rows.3.signal", "value": "Au 30 juin 2026, contre 7,5 Md$ de trésorerie", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.rows.3.signal" }, { "path": "fundamentals.rows.4.value", "value": "−6,81 Md$", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.rows.4.value" }, { "path": "fundamentals.rows.4.signal", "value": "Exercice clos le 30 juin 2026, 10-K", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.rows.4.signal" }, { "path": "fundamentals.rows.5.value", "value": "28,1 %", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.rows.5.value" }, { "path": "fundamentals.rows.5.signal", "value": "Exercice 2026, client non nommé", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.rows.5.signal" }, { "path": "fundamentals.rows.6.value", "value": "39,1 Md$", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.rows.6.value" }, { "path": "fundamentals.rows.6.signal", "value": "Exercice clos le 30 juin 2026 (XBRL SEC)", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.rows.6.signal" }, { "path": "fundamentals.rows.7.value", "value": "2,82 Md$", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.rows.7.value" }, { "path": "fundamentals.rows.7.signal", "value": "Résultat opérationnel + amortissements, exercice clos le 30 juin 2026", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.rows.7.signal" }, { "path": "fundamentals.rows.8.value", "value": "2,23 Md$", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.rows.8.value" }, { "path": "fundamentals.rows.8.signal", "value": "Exercice clos le 30 juin 2026", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.rows.8.signal" }, { "path": "fundamentals.rows.9.value", "value": "−6,97 Md$", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.rows.9.value" }, { "path": "fundamentals.rows.9.signal", "value": "Flux d’exploitation moins investissements industriels, exercice 2026", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.rows.9.signal" }, { "path": "fundamentals.rows.10.metric", "value": "Dette et trésorerie au 30 juin 2026", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.rows.10.metric" }, { "path": "fundamentals.rows.10.value", "value": "8,72 Md$ / 7,52 Md$", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.rows.10.value" }, { "path": "fundamentals.rows.11.value", "value": "12,0×", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.rows.11.value" }, { "path": "fundamentals.rows.11.signal", "value": "Valeur d’entreprise au close du 2026-09-23 sur EBITDA GAAP de l’exercice clos le 2026-06-30", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.rows.11.signal" }, { "path": "fundamentals.rows.11.comparison", "value": "Versus Dell à 21,7× et HPE à 13,8× (statistiques courantes du 24 septembre, non point-in-time) : préférentielles comprises, le multiple reste bas, reflet de la dilution et d’un flux de trésorerie négatif.", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.rows.11.comparison" }, { "path": "fundamentals.rows.12.value", "value": "14,6×", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.rows.12.value" }, { "path": "fundamentals.rows.12.signal", "value": "Exercice 2026 : capitalisation au 2026-09-23, préférentielles converties, sur résultat net GAAP de l’exercice clos le 2026-06-30", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.rows.12.signal" }, { "path": "fundamentals.rows.12.comparison", "value": "Versus 745 millions d’actions diluées retenues par la société pour sa prévision : le multiple par action dilué est plus élevé.", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.rows.12.comparison" }, { "path": "fundamentals.rows.13.value", "value": "27,16 $ par action", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.rows.13.value" }, { "path": "fundamentals.rows.13.signal", "value": "Scénario : multiple ramené à huit fois l’EBITDA GAAP par hypothèse, dette et trésorerie du 2026-06-30 inchangées, préférentielles converties, soit −34 % sous le close du 2026-09-23", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.rows.13.signal" }, { "path": "fundamentals.sourceRefs.0.name", "value": "Supermicro 8-K / Exhibit 99.1", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.sourceRefs.0.name" }, { "path": "fundamentals.sourceRefs.0.url", "value": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1375365/000137536526000021/exhibit991_20260630.htm", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.sourceRefs.0.url" }, { "path": "fundamentals.sourceRefs.0.date", "value": "2026-08-11", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.sourceRefs.0.date" }, { "path": "fundamentals.sourceRefs.1.name", "value": "Supermicro 10-K", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.sourceRefs.1.name" }, { "path": "fundamentals.sourceRefs.1.url", "value": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1375365/000137536526000022/smci-20260630.htm", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.sourceRefs.1.url" }, { "path": "fundamentals.sourceRefs.1.date", "value": "2026-08-31", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.sourceRefs.1.date" }, { "path": "fundamentals.sourceRefs.2.date", "value": "2026-09-24", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/fundamentals.sourceRefs.2.date" }, { "path": "earnings.beatNote", "value": "Quatrième trimestre de l’exercice 2026 : bénéfice par action GAAP dilué de 1,62 $ et ajusté de 1,70 $, résultat net de 1,18 Md$. La guidance du premier trimestre de l’exercice 2027 vise 14,5 à 15,5 Md$ de ventes et un bénéfice GAAP de 0,89 à 0,98 $ par action, sur 745 millions d’actions diluées. Pour l’exercice 2027 entier, la société prévoit 65,0 à 72,0 Md$ de ventes. Aucune date de prochaine publication n’est confirmée par l’émetteur à ce jour.", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/earnings.beatNote" }, { "path": "earnings.sourceRefs.0.name", "value": "Supermicro 8-K / Exhibit 99.1", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/earnings.sourceRefs.0.name" }, { "path": "earnings.sourceRefs.0.url", "value": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1375365/000137536526000021/exhibit991_20260630.htm", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/earnings.sourceRefs.0.url" }, { "path": "earnings.sourceRefs.0.date", "value": "2026-08-11", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/earnings.sourceRefs.0.date" }, { "path": "capitalStructure.sharesOutstanding", "value": "656 965 384 actions au 31 juillet 2026 (page de garde du 10-K)", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/capitalStructure.sharesOutstanding" }, { "path": "capitalStructure.shareHistory", "value": "Pont vers un nombre dilué : 657 millions d’actions au 31 juillet, après 52,3 millions vendues en juin à 27,50 $. Les 86,25 millions de certificats, chacun égal à un vingtième d’action préférentielle, se convertiront vers le 1er juin 2029 en 1,5152 à 1,8182 action chacune, soit 130,7 à 156,8 millions d’actions ; au-dessus de 33 $, c’est le bas de la fourchette qui s’applique. Le programme de 1,25 Md$ représenterait environ 30 millions d’actions au cours actuel. Les convertibles 2028, 2029 et 2030 ne se convertissent qu’à 61,06 $, 83,44 $ et 55,20 $. La société retient 745 millions d’actions diluées pour sa prévision, 13 % de plus que le nombre en circulation : c’est cette base qui compte pour le bénéfice par action.", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/capitalStructure.shareHistory" }, { "path": "capitalStructure.atm.authorized", "value": "1,25 Md$ (contrat du 11 juin 2026)", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/capitalStructure.atm.authorized" }, { "path": "capitalStructure.atm.used", "value": "Aucune action vendue au 30 juin 2026", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/capitalStructure.atm.used" }, { "path": "capitalStructure.atm.remaining", "value": "Jusqu’à 1,25 Md$ ; ventes possibles depuis juillet, non encore publiées", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/capitalStructure.atm.remaining" }, { "path": "capitalStructure.sourceRefs.0.name", "value": "Supermicro 10-K", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/capitalStructure.sourceRefs.0.name" }, { "path": "capitalStructure.sourceRefs.0.url", "value": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1375365/000137536526000022/smci-20260630.htm", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/capitalStructure.sourceRefs.0.url" }, { "path": "capitalStructure.sourceRefs.0.date", "value": "2026-08-31", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/capitalStructure.sourceRefs.0.date" }, { "path": "capitalStructure.sourceRefs.1.name", "value": "Supermicro 8-K", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/capitalStructure.sourceRefs.1.name" }, { "path": "capitalStructure.sourceRefs.1.url", "value": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1375365/000119312526269703/d45696d8k.htm", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/capitalStructure.sourceRefs.1.url" }, { "path": "capitalStructure.sourceRefs.1.date", "value": "2026-06-12", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/capitalStructure.sourceRefs.1.date" }, { "path": "filingsReview.filings.0.date", "value": "2026-08-11", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/filingsReview.filings.0.date" }, { "path": "filingsReview.filings.0.form", "value": "8-K / Exhibit 99.1", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/filingsReview.filings.0.form" }, { "path": "filingsReview.filings.0.accession", "value": "0001375365-26-000021", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/filingsReview.filings.0.accession" }, { "path": "filingsReview.filings.0.finding", "value": "Communiqué du quatrième trimestre de l’exercice 2026 : ventes de 11,1 Md$, marge brute de 17,5 % contre 9,9 % au trimestre précédent. Prévision de 14,5 à 15,5 Md$ pour le premier trimestre et de 65,0 à 72,0 Md$ pour l’exercice 2027, sur 745 millions d’actions diluées.", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/filingsReview.filings.0.finding" }, { "path": "filingsReview.filings.0.url", "value": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1375365/000137536526000021/exhibit991_20260630.htm", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/filingsReview.filings.0.url" }, { "path": "filingsReview.filings.1.date", "value": "2026-08-31", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/filingsReview.filings.1.date" }, { "path": "filingsReview.filings.1.form", "value": "10-K", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/filingsReview.filings.1.form" }, { "path": "filingsReview.filings.1.accession", "value": "0001375365-26-000022", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/filingsReview.filings.1.accession" }, { "path": "filingsReview.filings.1.finding", "value": "Rapport annuel de l’exercice 2026 : un client à 28,1 % des ventes, flux d’exploitation négatif de 6,81 Md$, émission de 52,3 millions d’actions à 27,50 $ et de 86,25 millions de certificats d’actions préférentielles convertibles en juin, programme de vente au fil de l’eau de 1,25 Md$, et mise en examen d’un ancien vice-président pour violation des contrôles à l’exportation.", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/filingsReview.filings.1.finding" }, { "path": "filingsReview.filings.1.url", "value": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1375365/000137536526000022/smci-20260630.htm", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/filingsReview.filings.1.url" }, { "path": "filingsReview.filings.2.date", "value": "2026-06-12", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/filingsReview.filings.2.date" }, { "path": "filingsReview.filings.2.form", "value": "8-K", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/filingsReview.filings.2.form" }, { "path": "filingsReview.filings.2.accession", "value": "0001193125-26-269703", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/filingsReview.filings.2.accession" }, { "path": "filingsReview.filings.2.finding", "value": "Contrat de distribution d’actions du 11 juin avec J.P. Morgan, Goldman Sachs et Citigroup, qui encadre le programme de vente au fil de l’eau, et contrat de prise ferme de l’émission d’actions ordinaires. Aucun financeur spécialisé dans les émissions toxiques n’apparaît.", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/filingsReview.filings.2.finding" }, { "path": "filingsReview.filings.2.url", "value": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1375365/000119312526269703/d45696d8k.htm", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/filingsReview.filings.2.url" }, { "path": "filingsReview.contrarianRisks.0", "value": "La marge brute de 17,5 % d’un seul trimestre peut ne pas tenir : sur l’exercice, elle n’est que de 10,8 %.", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/filingsReview.contrarianRisks.0" }, { "path": "filingsReview.contrarianRisks.2", "value": "Un client à 28,1 % des ventes : un seul report de livraison suffit à rater une prévision.", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/filingsReview.contrarianRisks.2" }, { "path": "technicals.rsi14", "value": 59.96, "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/values/technicals/rsi14" }, { "path": "technicals.macd", "value": 1.53, "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/values/technicals/macd" }, { "path": "technicals.macdSignal", "value": 1.39, "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/values/technicals/macdSignal" }, { "path": "technicals.ema20", "value": 38.52, "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/values/technicals/ema20" }, { "path": "technicals.ema50", "value": 35.98, "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/values/technicals/ema50" }, { "path": "technicals.ema200", "value": 35.63, "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/values/technicals/ema200" }, { "path": "technicals.atr14", "value": 2.33, "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/values/technicals/atr14" }, { "path": "technicals.badges.1", "value": "Sous le plus haut du 23 septembre", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/technicals.badges.1" }, { "path": "technicals.supports.0", "value": 40, "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/values/technicals/supports/0" }, { "path": "technicals.supports.1", "value": 38.32, "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/values/technicals/supports/1" }, { "path": "technicals.supports.2", "value": 35.36, "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/values/technicals/supports/2" }, { "path": "technicals.resistances.0", "value": 42.31, "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/values/technicals/resistances/0" }, { "path": "technicals.resistances.1", "value": 42.7, "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/values/technicals/resistances/1" }, { "path": "technicals.resistances.2", "value": 44.95, "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/values/technicals/resistances/2" }, { "path": "technicals.setupNote", "value": "Le titre clôture à 41,44 $, au-dessus de ses moyennes à vingt, cinquante et deux cents séances, après avoir touché 42,70 $ en séance. Avant activation, aucune entrée ; une clôture sous 35,36 $, plus bas du 16 septembre, abandonne le scénario. Activation sur une clôture au-dessus de $42.70, plus haut du 23 septembre. Après activation, stop sous $40.00, plus bas du 21 septembre, soit 1,16 ATR sous le déclencheur. Supports : 40,00 $, 38,32 $ et 35,36 $. Résistances : 42,31 $, 42,70 $ et 44,95 $, plus haut de la veille de l’émission de juin.", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/technicals.setupNote" }, { "path": "technicals.sourceRefs.0.date", "value": "2026-09-24", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/technicals.sourceRefs.0.date" }, { "path": "options.sourceRefs.0.date", "value": "2026-09-24", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/options.sourceRefs.0.date" }, { "path": "shortInterest.siPct", "value": "18,5 % du flottant", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/shortInterest.siPct" }, { "path": "shortInterest.daysToCover", "value": "1,77 jours, date de règlement non précisée par le snapshot", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/shortInterest.daysToCover" }, { "path": "shortInterest.sourceRefs.0.date", "value": "2026-09-24", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/shortInterest.sourceRefs.0.date" }, { "path": "insiders.signal", "value": "Charles Liang, fondateur et directeur général, a déclaré la vente de 200 000 actions pour environ 7,7 M$ les 3 et 4 septembre, détenues indirectement ; Sara Liu, cofondatrice, vice-présidente principale et administratrice selon le 10-K, déclare les mêmes 200 000 actions en détention directe. Il s’agit très probablement des mêmes titres déclarés deux fois : ne pas additionner. Les autres lignes sont des attributions d’actions.", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/insiders.signal" }, { "path": "insiders.recentTransactions.0.date", "value": "2026-09-04", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/insiders.recentTransactions.0.date" }, { "path": "insiders.recentTransactions.0.shares", "value": "200 000", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/insiders.recentTransactions.0.shares" }, { "path": "insiders.recentTransactions.0.value", "value": "7,7 M$", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/insiders.recentTransactions.0.value" }, { "path": "insiders.sourceRefs.0.name", "value": "Données de marché datées (provenance hashée) : formulaires 4", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/insiders.sourceRefs.0.name" }, { "path": "insiders.sourceRefs.0.date", "value": "2026-09-24", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/insiders.sourceRefs.0.date" }, { "path": "macro.indicators.0.value", "value": "2026-09-23", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/macro.indicators.0.value" }, { "path": "macro.indicators.0.signal", "value": "41,44 $, séance complète", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/macro.indicators.0.signal" }, { "path": "macro.indicators.1.value", "value": "+12,46 %", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/macro.indicators.1.value" }, { "path": "macro.indicators.2.value", "value": "+17,83 %", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/macro.indicators.2.value" }, { "path": "macro.impact", "value": "Supermicro finance ses stocks par la dette et le capital : des taux longs à 5,11 % le 23 septembre, plus haut depuis juillet 2007, renchérissent ce financement et pèsent sur un titre déjà très sensible au sentiment.", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/macro.impact" }, { "path": "risks.riskScore", "value": 8, "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/values/risks/riskScore" }, { "path": "risks.riskCards.0.points.0", "value": "52,3 millions d’actions vendues en juin à 27,50 $.", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/risks.riskCards.0.points.0" }, { "path": "risks.riskCards.0.points.1", "value": "Environ 131 millions d’actions à venir via les préférentielles, plus le programme de 1,25 Md$.", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/risks.riskCards.0.points.1" }, { "path": "risks.riskCards.1.points.0", "value": "Flux d’exploitation de −6,81 Md$ sur l’exercice.", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/risks.riskCards.1.points.0" }, { "path": "risks.riskCards.1.points.1", "value": "Dette bancaire et convertibles de 8,7 Md$.", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/risks.riskCards.1.points.1" }, { "path": "risks.riskCards.2.points.0", "value": "Mise en examen de Wally Liaw, ancien vice-président principal et ancien administrateur, le 19 mars 2026.", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/risks.riskCards.2.points.0" }, { "path": "risks.riskCards.3.points.0", "value": "Un client non nommé à 28,1 % des ventes.", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/risks.riskCards.3.points.0" }, { "path": "tradeIdea.statusNote", "value": "Surveiller. Avant activation : aucune entrée ; une clôture sous 35,36 $ abandonne le scénario. Activation : clôture au-dessus de 42,70 $, puis achat à l’ouverture suivante seulement sous 43,28 $. Après activation : stop sous 40,00 $. L’ancien repère de 38,95 $ du 28 août était dormant et n’a jamais été un ordre.", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/tradeIdea.statusNote" }, { "path": "tradeIdea.entry", "value": 42.7, "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/values/tradeIdea/entry" }, { "path": "tradeIdea.stop", "value": 40, "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/values/tradeIdea/stop" }, { "path": "tradeIdea.tp1", "value": 48.21, "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/values/tradeIdea/tp1" }, { "path": "tradeIdea.tp2", "value": 50.04, "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/values/tradeIdea/tp2" }, { "path": "tradeIdea.stopPct", "value": "-6.3%", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/tradeIdea.stopPct" }, { "path": "tradeIdea.tp1Pct", "value": "+12.9%", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/tradeIdea.tp1Pct" }, { "path": "tradeIdea.tp2Pct", "value": "+17.2%", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/tradeIdea.tp2Pct" }, { "path": "tradeIdea.rr", "value": "1:2.04 TP1 / 1:2.72 TP2", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/tradeIdea.rr" }, { "path": "tradeIdea.entryNote", "value": "Déclencheur sur clôture au-dessus du plus haut du 23 septembre, pas sur un franchissement en séance. Entrée à l’ouverture suivante uniquement sous 43,28 $ : au-delà, le R/R vers TP1 tomberait sous 1,5 avec le même stop. Le plafond n’est qu’à 0,58 $ au-dessus du déclencheur, soit 0,25 ATR : un écart d’ouverture plus large annule l’entrée, il ne se rattrape pas. Sur les 250 dernières séances, 53 ouvertures ont dépassé la clôture de la veille de plus de 0,58 $, soit environ 21 % ; l’écart d’ouverture médian, dans un sens ou dans l’autre, vaut 0,46 $. Première résistance sur la route : 44,95 $, plus haut de la veille de l’émission de juin, entre l’entrée et TP1 ; jusque-là, le R/R ne vaut que 0,83 depuis le déclencheur et 0,51 depuis le plafond. Le stop n’est qu’à 1,16 ATR du déclencheur : une séance ordinaire de ce titre peut le toucher par simple bruit. Objectifs : TP1 aux trois quarts de la hauteur du couloir au-dessus du déclencheur, TP2 à sa hauteur entière. Liquidité : environ 1,28 Md$ échangés par séance, médiane des vingt dernières. Exemple de taille, non personnalisé : avec un budget de perte de 100 $, le risque au plafond, 3,28 $ par action, donne 30 actions.", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/tradeIdea.entryNote" }, { "path": "tradeIdea.thesis", "value": "Le marché paie Supermicro 15 fois ses résultats de l’exercice parce qu’il attend la dilution et doute de la marge du quatrième trimestre. Avant activation, surveillance seulement, et une clôture sous 35,36 $ abandonne le scénario. Une clôture au-dessus de $42.70 dirait que l’offre d’actions nouvelles est absorbée ; l’achat n’a lieu qu’à l’ouverture suivante et sous 43,28 $. Après activation, le stop sous $40.00 limite le risque, mais il est proche : taille réduite. TP1 à 48,21 $, TP2 à 50,04 $, avec une résistance à 44,95 $ entre les deux. Ne pas acheter un gap au-dessus du plafond.", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/tradeIdea.thesis" }, { "path": "tradeIdea.catalysts.0", "value": "Une clôture au-dessus du plus haut du 23 septembre, sur un volume au moins égal à la médiane récente.", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/tradeIdea.catalysts.0" }, { "path": "tradeIdea.catalysts.1", "value": "Les résultats de Micron, le 30 septembre après la clôture selon deux calendriers : un test de la demande de serveurs d’IA.", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/tradeIdea.catalysts.1" }, { "path": "tradeIdea.catalysts.2", "value": "Le prochain 10-Q, qui dira combien d’actions ont été vendues par le programme depuis juillet.", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/tradeIdea.catalysts.2" }, { "path": "tradeIdea.invalidation.0", "value": "Avant activation : une clôture sous 35,36 $, bas du couloir, abandonne le scénario.", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/tradeIdea.invalidation.0" }, { "path": "tradeIdea.invalidation.1", "value": "Après activation : une clôture sous 40,00 $ invalide le trade.", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/tradeIdea.invalidation.1" }, { "path": "tradeIdea.invalidation.2", "value": "Ouverture au-dessus de 43,28 $ après la clôture de déclenchement : pas d’achat, le R/R deviendrait insuffisant.", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/tradeIdea.invalidation.2" }, { "path": "globalScore.keyTakeawaysPositive.0", "value": "Prévision de 65 à 72 Md$ de ventes pour l’exercice 2027.", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/globalScore.keyTakeawaysPositive.0" }, { "path": "globalScore.keyTakeawaysPositive.1", "value": "Marge brute remontée à 17,5 % au quatrième trimestre.", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/globalScore.keyTakeawaysPositive.1" }, { "path": "globalScore.keyTakeawaysNegative.0", "value": "Dilution de juin et environ 130 millions d’actions à venir.", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/globalScore.keyTakeawaysNegative.0" }, { "path": "globalScore.keyTakeawaysNegative.1", "value": "Flux d’exploitation de −6,81 Md$ sur l’exercice.", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/globalScore.keyTakeawaysNegative.1" }, { "path": "social.sourceRefs.0.date", "value": "2026-09-24", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/social.sourceRefs.0.date" }, { "path": "blastRadius.asOf", "value": "2026-09-23", "as_of": "2026-09-23", "source_artifact": "analyses/SMCI/_runs/20260924/revision/numeric-evidence.json", "source_sha256": "ae445fb804c74a2dadb2e8a745e38efff1615bebad707d69e438a047aae0efff", "source_pointer": "/string_numeric_claims/blastRadius.asOf" }, { "path": "blastRadius.observationTime", "value": 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