Top 10 A+ RECOVERY — NVDA, BA, ASML, COST, JPM, XOM, CF, RTX, AMGN, EWZ
Regime shift detected — Risk-Off → Recovery: Tuesday’s session delivered the best single-day rally since May 2025, driven by a seismic geopolitical catalyst: reports that Iran signaled “conditional restraint” in the Strait of Hormuz crisis, combined with U.S.-brokered ceasefire framework discussions. The S&P 500 surged +2.89% to 6,527, the Dow Jones exploded +1,029 points (+2.46%), and the Nasdaq led the charge at +3.80%. Market breadth was extraordinary: 85% of S&P 500 names advanced on 12.4B shares traded (vs 10.8B average). The VIX collapsed -18% to 25.1, its biggest daily drop since the August 2025 unwind. Oil’s -6.2% reversal to $98.50 WTI is the clearest signal the geopolitical premium is deflating.
Market context (Tuesday close): S&P 500 6,527.28 (+2.89%), NASDAQ 21,584.01 (+3.80%), Dow 46,245.08 (+2.28%), Russell 2000 2,490.12 (+3.15%). VIX 25.10 (-18%). Gold $4,525.20 (-0.33%), Silver $69.50 (-0.97%), WTI $98.50 (-6.20%), Brent $102.30 (-5.96%), NatGas $3.02 (+4.50%). DXY 99.80 (-0.72%). 10Y yield 4.410% (+0.068), TLT $85.40 (-1.59%). Bitcoin $68,500 (+2.54%). FTSE 10,176 (+0.48%), DAX 22,680 (+0.52%), CAC 7,817 (+0.57%). Nikkei 53,400 (+2.92%), Hang Seng 23,150 (+1.85%).
Key catalysts for Wednesday April 1: (1) Trump reciprocal tariffs April 2 — THE binary event; 24 hours away, maximum positioning risk; (2) Iran de-escalation follow-through — will Tuesday’s ceasefire optimism hold? Any reversal nukes the rally; (3) Q2 first day rotation — new quarter = fresh allocations, tech and cyclicals see inflows as oil fear deflates; (4) VIX 25 → 20 compression potential — if tariff announcement is moderate, implied vol collapses further; (5) NVDA $2B Marvell investment — AI capex cycle accelerating, GTC 2026 Vera Rubin momentum; (6) Boeing Q1 report April 22 — setup window before catalyst.
The regime score surged from 0.278 (Risk-Off) to 0.58 (Recovery) in a single session — the largest daily regime shift since August 2025. The composite is now driven by a rapidly improving VIX component (0.65, down from 1.0 at 30.61), a surging SPX breadth component (0.72, 85% advance-decline ratio), and stabilizing credit (HYG +0.31%). The critical question: is this a genuine regime change or a bear market rally? Historical precedent is mixed — the 2022 June rally (+16% S&P) reversed entirely. What’s different: the Iran catalyst is a real fundamental driver (oil dropping $6.50/barrel = meaningful inflation relief), and Q2 rotation creates structural demand for risk assets. However, the April 2 tariff deadline introduces a hard binary event that could reverse everything. Our strategy: selective Recovery positioning with tight stops, favoring quality names that benefit from both the geopolitical de-escalation (defense, energy pivot) and the tech bounce (AI capex, semis).
Three forces are creating the Recovery inflection: (1) Iran de-escalation = inflation relief — if oil stabilizes below $100, the Fed’s stagflation bind loosens significantly, reopening rate cut expectations for H2 2026; (2) Q2 rotation = structural bid for tech/growth — new quarter allocations favor beaten-down sectors (tech -12% in Q1), and institutional mandates force deployment; (3) VIX compression = margin expansion — as VIX drops from 30 toward 20, portfolio hedging costs decrease, enabling larger risk exposures. The risk: tariffs are the binary X-factor. A severe tariff announcement April 2 could erase the recovery in one session. Our positioning reflects this: recovery-oriented names with tight stops (3–5%) and asymmetric risk/reward (1:2+). If tariffs are moderate, these setups have 15–25% upside. If severe, stops protect capital.
| Asset | Price | Change | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 6,527.28 | +2.89% | Recovery |
| NASDAQ | 21,584.01 | +3.80% | Recovery |
| Dow Jones | 46,245.08 | +2.28% | Recovery |
| Russell 2000 | 2,490.12 | +3.15% | Recovery |
| VIX | 25.10 | -18% | Compression |
| WTI Crude | $98.50 | -6.20% | De-escalation |
| Brent Crude | $102.30 | -5.96% | De-escalation |
| NatGas | $3.02 | +4.50% | Seasonal |
| Gold | $4,525.20 | -0.33% | Rotation Out |
| Silver | $69.50 | -0.97% | Rotation Out |
| Copper | $5.58 | +1.64% | Cyclical Bid |
| 10Y Yield | 4.410% | +0.068 | Risk-On |
| TLT | $85.40 | -1.59% | Safety Unwind |
| HYG | $79.05 | +0.31% | Credit Improving |
| DXY | 99.80 | -0.72% | USD Weak |
| BTC | $68,500 | +2.54% | Risk-On |
| ETH | $2,087 | +2.51% | Risk-On |
| Nikkei | 53,400 | +2.92% | Recovery |
| Hang Seng | 23,150 | +1.85% | Recovery |
| DAX | 22,680 | +0.52% | Recovery |
| # | Ticker | Name | Strategy | Score | Entry | Stop | TP1 | TP2 | R/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NVDA | NVIDIA Corp | Momentum | 95 | $168–$172 | $160 | $190 | $210 | 1:2.0 |
| 2 | BA | Boeing Co | Breakout | 93 | $194–$198 | $185 | $220 | $245 | 1:2.0 |
| 3 | ASML | ASML Holding NV | Momentum | 92 | $1,280–$1,300 | $1,220 | $1,420 | $1,500 | 1:1.8 |
| 4 | COST | Costco Wholesale | Breakout | 91 | $985–$1,000 | $955 | $1,060 | $1,120 | 1:1.7 |
| 5 | JPM | JPMorgan Chase | Breakout | 91 | $255–$262 | $245 | $285 | $305 | 1:1.8 |
| 6 | XOM | Exxon Mobil | Momentum | 90 | $166–$170 | $158 | $182 | $195 | 1:1.5 |
| 7 | CF | CF Industries | Momentum | 89 | $120–$125 | $114 | $138 | $150 | 1:1.6 |
| 8 | RTX | RTX Corporation | Pullback | 88 | $132–$137 | $126 | $150 | $162 | 1:1.7 |
| 9 | AMGN | Amgen Inc | Pullback | 87 | $285–$295 | $272 | $320 | $345 | 1:1.5 |
| 10 | EWZ | iShares MSCI Brazil | Pullback | 85 | $27.50–$28.50 | $26 | $31 | $33.50 | 1:1.7 |
Turnover vs previous scan: 8/10 new names (80%). Carryovers: XOM (#6, was #1), CF (#7, was #2). Dropped: EQNR, SHEL, NEM, GLD, MRK, KO, TLT, EWA (regime shift from pure defensive to recovery favors tech, financials, cyclicals). Excluded (29 open positions): AAOI, ADEA, AGRO, APA, AR, AXTI, BBIO, BBVA, BG, DAWN, DVN, EDSA, EQNR, FANG, FCX, GLD, HAL, HIMS, LNG, MPC, MRK, MRVL, NAT, NEM, PSX, SLB, SM, TTE, XLE.
NVIDIA is the single most important stock in the current AI infrastructure buildout. Tuesday’s +4.80% surge to $170.70 was driven by two converging catalysts: (1) the broader market recovery on Iran de-escalation allowing risk appetite to return to high-beta tech names, and (2) the announcement of a $2 billion strategic investment in Marvell Technology for AI chip collaboration, signaling that NVIDIA’s capex cycle is accelerating, not decelerating. The stock is trading at $170, +5% above its 200-day MA ($162) which just acted as support during the March selloff. The GTC 2026 Vera Rubin architecture announcements confirmed the product roadmap, and Q4 revenue of $68.1B (+73% YoY) from Blackwell-generation AI chips demonstrates the business is executing flawlessly. Technical setup: RSI recovering from oversold 34 to ~48, MACD approaching bullish crossover, and volume on Tuesday was 2.3x average — textbook recovery momentum confirmation. Analyst consensus: Buy, average target $264.57 (+55% upside from current).
Boeing presents a compelling Breakout setup at a critical inflection point. Tuesday’s +3.62% rally to $196.05 broke above the $190–$195 consolidation zone that capped the stock for two weeks. The catalyst structure is exceptionally rich: (1) Iran de-escalation directly benefits Boeing — lower geopolitical risk increases airline confidence in fleet expansion, plus commercial aviation recovery accelerates as oil drops below $100 (lower fuel costs = higher margins = more orders); (2) Defense spending secular uptrend — the Iran crisis, even as it de-escalates, has reinforced the bipartisan consensus for increased defense budgets (Boeing is a top 5 DoD contractor); (3) Q1 earnings April 22 — the setup window is ideal, 3 weeks before the catalyst. At $196, Boeing trades at a 23% discount to its 52W high ($254) and 38% below analyst fair value estimates. The company has stabilized production rates on the 737 MAX, resolved key supply chain bottlenecks, and the order backlog stands at $529B — a record. Multiple analyst upgrades in recent weeks: Vertical Research $281 (Buy), UBS $285 (Buy). Institutional accumulation is evident (Hennion & Walsh increased stake 81.6%).
ASML is the undisputed monopoly in extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography — the machines that make every advanced semiconductor on the planet. At $1,293.94 (+3.19% Tuesday), the stock is recovering from a March pullback and sits +4% above its critical MA200 ($1,245), confirming structural support. The thesis is straightforward: as long as AI capex grows, ASML’s order book grows. TSMC, Samsung, and Intel cannot build advanced nodes without ASML’s High-NA EUV machines. The stock is up +16% YTD despite the broader tech selloff, demonstrating relative strength. JPMorgan just reaffirmed its Buy rating with a target of $1,482 (+15% upside). The combination of (1) NVIDIA’s $2B Marvell investment confirming AI chip demand acceleration, (2) Q2 rotation into semis, and (3) the Iran de-escalation removing the oil-driven stagflation fear creates a powerful tailwind for Europe’s most important tech company. Risk/reward is compelling: stop at MA200 ($1,220) gives 5.7% risk for 10%+ upside to TP1.
Costco is the quintessential “works in any regime” stock — but it works especially well in Recovery regimes where consumer confidence is rebuilding. At $992.65, COST just broke above its MA50 ($985) with the broader market rally, setting up a potential run toward the $1,000 psychological level and beyond. The fundamental catalyst is powerful: Telsey Advisory Group projects March comparable sales growth of +7.7% (vs +6.4% a year ago), exceeding consensus. This acceleration confirms that Costco’s value proposition strengthens during inflationary environments — consumers trade down to warehouse clubs when grocery/fuel costs rise. The membership model (98.5% renewal rate, $4.8B annual fees) provides unprecedented revenue visibility. Costco has outperformed the S&P 500 in 8 of the last 10 quarters. The stock’s premium valuation (51.8x P/E) is justified by consistent same-store sales growth, membership expansion, and increasing digital penetration. Key risk: if tariffs on April 2 are severe, consumer staples could be impacted by cost inflation on imported goods.
JPMorgan is the undisputed king of US banking and a primary beneficiary of the Recovery regime. At $258.40 (+2.95%), the stock just broke above its MA50 ($252) on heavy volume, triggering a Breakout signal. The thesis rests on three pillars: (1) Net interest income (NII) benefits from 4.4% 10Y yield — the steeper yield curve (long rates rising, short rates stable) is the optimal environment for bank profitability; (2) Investment banking pipeline recovering — M&A and IPO activity accelerating in Q2 as volatility normalizes; (3) Capital markets trading revenue surge — the March volatility (VIX above 30) drove exceptional trading volumes, which will be reported in Q1 earnings. Jamie Dimon’s fortress balance sheet ($4.1T in assets) provides safety in any tariff scenario, while the bank’s diversified revenue streams (consumer, corporate, markets, asset management) reduce concentration risk. At 11.5x forward P/E, JPM trades at a modest premium to peers but a discount to its own 5-year average of 12.2x.
Carryover from the March 31 scan (previously #1). XOM dipped -2.24% to $167.15 as oil pulled back on Iran de-escalation, but the structural thesis remains intact. Oil at $98.50 is still extremely profitable for ExxonMobil — the company’s breakeven is below $40/barrel. The key insight: even if Iran fully de-escalates, structural underinvestment in upstream oil capacity since 2020 means supply remains constrained globally. WTI above $90 is the new floor, not $70. XOM at $167 is essentially at its 52W high zone ($171.19), just 2.4% below — making this a Momentum continuation play. The stock is +45% over 12 months, well above both MA50 ($164) and MA200 ($148), confirming a powerful structural uptrend. The mild pullback on oil de-escalation creates an optimal entry for the next leg higher. ExxonMobil’s Permian Basin dominance, refining margins at multi-year highs, and a progressive dividend policy (3.3% yield) make it the highest-quality energy major globally.
Carryover from the March 31 scan (previously #2). CF Industries continues its approach toward a 52-week high breakout at $128, now just 4% away. The dual catalyst structure remains powerful: (1) Tariff deadline April 2 is bullish for CF — reciprocal tariffs on fertilizer imports would reduce foreign competition, directly benefiting North America’s largest nitrogen producer; (2) NatGas input cost declining at $3.02 while nitrogen prices remain elevated — margin expansion accelerating. CF’s Momentum score remains high with the stock above both MA50 ($115, +6.8%) and MA200 ($105, +17%), confirming a multi-month structural uptrend. The Iran de-escalation is net neutral for CF: lower oil reduces some ag commodity pressure but NatGas remains cheap and fertilizer demand is structurally inelastic. The global food security thematic (Ukraine conflict, climate disruptions, population growth) provides a multi-year secular tailwind that transcends individual market regime shifts.
RTX (formerly Raytheon Technologies) presents a textbook Pullback setup at MA200 support. The stock has pulled back from its 52W high of $155 to $134.50, a -13% correction that has brought it precisely to its MA200 ($132) — the most reliable support level in the stock’s recent history. This pullback occurred during the broader Risk-Off regime, not due to any company-specific deterioration. In fact, the Iran crisis has strengthened the bull case for defense: (1) European defense spending acceleration — NATO allies are fast-tracking procurement, with RTX’s Patriot missile systems and Pratt & Whitney engines in highest demand; (2) US defense budget bipartisan support — FY2027 proposals include 5%+ real growth; (3) Commercial engine aftermarket growth — Pratt & Whitney GTF engine installed base = recurring high-margin revenue for 20+ years. The Iran de-escalation doesn’t hurt RTX — defense budgets operate on multi-year cycles that don’t reverse on single diplomatic developments. The pullback to MA200 is the buy-the-dip opportunity.
Amgen presents a Pullback setup at an attractive entry point for the world’s largest independent biotech company. At $290.50, the stock is testing its MA200 ($295) from below, a level it needs to reclaim for the intermediate uptrend to resume. The fundamental catalyst is MariTide (maridebart cafraglutide), Amgen’s obesity/GLP-1 dual-mechanism drug that demonstrated 20% weight loss in Phase 2 trials with monthly dosing (vs weekly for Ozempic/Wegovy). MariTide Phase 3 data is expected in H2 2026 — a potential $50B+ market opportunity. Beyond MariTide, Amgen’s existing portfolio generates $33B+ annual revenue with diversified therapeutic areas (oncology, inflammation, bone health, cardiovascular). The company yields 3.8% with 12 consecutive years of dividend growth, providing income support during any remaining volatility. The -16% pullback from its 52W high ($346) is driven by broader biotech sector rotation, not company-specific concerns. Recovery regime + healthcare quality = Pullback opportunity.
Brazil’s iShares MSCI ETF presents a Pullback setup at MA200 support with exceptional asymmetry. At $28.15, EWZ is sitting right on its MA200 ($27.50) after a pullback from $33.50 highs earlier this year. The thesis is multi-layered: (1) Commodity superpower play — Brazil is the world’s largest exporter of iron ore (#1), soybeans (#1), coffee (#1), beef (#1), and orange juice (#1), plus a major oil producer (Petrobras). With commodities elevated, Brazil’s terms of trade are at a 20-year best; (2) Real interest rates among the highest globally at ~8.5%, attracting foreign portfolio flows as DXY weakens (99.80); (3) Valuation extreme — Brazilian stocks trade at ~7x forward P/E, the cheapest major equity market in the world; (4) Recovery regime = EM rotation — as risk appetite returns and USD weakens, EM historically outperforms. The Iran de-escalation is mildly negative (oil drops = Petrobras headwind) but is offset by the broader risk-on rotation into cheap EM assets.
The scanner classifies the market into one of 5 regimes: Risk-On, Early Risk-Off, Risk-Off, Neutral, Recovery. Inputs: VIX (35% weight), S&P 500 trend (25%), credit spreads/HYG (20%), DXY momentum (10%), TLT direction (10%). Today’s score: 0.58 → Recovery confirmed (up from 0.278 Risk-Off yesterday). VIX component improved from 1.0 to 0.65, SPX breadth surged to 0.72 (85% advance ratio). Strategy weights adapt: Recovery favors Momentum (40%), Breakout (30%), Pullback (30%).
Four complementary strategies run simultaneously: Momentum Expansion (close > SMA20, vol > SMA(vol,20)×2, RSI 50–75), Breakout Squeeze (close > SMA50, ATR(14) > ATR(28)×1.2), Pullback (RSI < 45 with price at/near MA200), Pre-Squeeze (Bollinger Band width < 20th percentile with volume build). Results filtered through sector allocation rules: minimum 5 US, 2 EU/EM, 1 ETF. Covered universe: 800+ stocks across US, EU, APAC plus 100+ ETFs.
Technical momentum (35%): Price vs MA50/MA200, RSI, volume, trend strength. Fundamental value (25%): Forward PE, earnings growth, dividend yield, FCF yield. Catalyst quality (25%): Upcoming earnings, macro thematic alignment, insider activity, news flow. Risk assessment (15%): Distance from stop, dilution check, short interest, liquidity. Minimum threshold: 85/100. Today’s range: 85–95.
Before any ticker is retained: (1) Open position exclusion from scanner-positions.json; (2) SEC filing check for recent S-3, ATM programs, PIPE offerings; (3) Short interest > 30% float → flag; (4) Reverse split in past 6 months → disqualify; (5) Aggressive fund underwriters in recent offerings → disqualify. Today’s excluded tickers (29 open positions): AAOI, ADEA, AGRO, APA, AR, AXTI, BBIO, BBVA, BG, DAWN, DVN, EDSA, EQNR, FANG, FCX, GLD, HAL, HIMS, LNG, MPC, MRK, MRVL, NAT, NEM, PSX, SLB, SM, TTE, XLE.
Final checks: (1) Geographic diversification (min 5 US, 2 EU/EM, 1 ETF) — today: 7 US, 1 EU (ASML), 1 ETF (EWZ), 1 ETF-equivalent coverage; (2) Sector diversification — no more than 4 names from same sub-sector; (3) Short Squeeze strategy excluded per policy (20/03/2026); (4) Authorized strategies only: Momentum, Breakout, Pullback, Pre-Squeeze. Final ranking by composite score descending. Today: NVDA(95), BA(93), ASML(92), COST(91), JPM(91), XOM(90), CF(89), RTX(88), AMGN(87), EWZ(85). Avg score: 90.1/100. Turnover: 80% (8/10 new). Regime shift from Risk-Off to Recovery warranted significant portfolio rotation.
⚠️ This is NOT financial advice. The Market Watch Scanner is an educational and analytical tool. All setups are hypothetical trade ideas for informational purposes only. Past scanner performance (backtest) is not indicative of future results. The scanner uses a systematic methodology combining: (1) regime analysis, (2) quantitative screening, (3) fundamental filters, and (4) geopolitical context analysis. Short Squeeze setups are excluded per policy. Setups involving open positions are excluded to prevent overlap. All entry/stop/target levels are approximate and should be adjusted based on Wednesday’s opening conditions. Position sizing: 1/30 of capital per trade maximum. CRITICAL WARNING: The April 2 tariff announcement introduces a hard binary risk event. All setups could be invalidated by severe tariff escalation. Consider reducing position sizes to 1/50 until tariff clarity emerges. Do your own research before trading.
Data sources: Yahoo Finance, Financial Times, Reuters, CNBC, MarketWatch MCP Gateway. Regime score: 0.58 (Recovery). Scan timestamp: March 31, 2026 21:00 UTC (for Wednesday April 1 open). Scanner version 6.0.