Top 10 A+ EARLY RISK-OFF — NVDA, BA, ASML, COST, JPM, XOM, EWY, RTX, AMGN, EWZ
Regime: Early Risk-Off (score 0.505) — Tuesday delivered a powerful rally across all asset classes: S&P 500 +2.91% to 6,528, Nasdaq +3.83%, Dow +2.49% (+1,125 pts), Russell 2000 +3.41%. The VIX dropped to 24.38 but remains elevated — the regime score sits at 0.505, still classified as Early Risk-Off despite the broad-based bounce. Market breadth was strong: 86.3% of stocks advanced. The rally was driven by Iran de-escalation signals and pre-tariff positioning ahead of the April 2 reciprocal tariff announcement.
Key levels (Tuesday close): S&P 500 6,528.52 (+2.91%), NASDAQ 21,590.63 (+3.83%), Dow 46,341.51 (+2.49%), Russell 2,496.37 (+3.41%). VIX 24.38. Gold $4,738 (+1.27%), Silver $74.29 (-0.84%), WTI $97.95 (-3.38%), Brent $100.70 (-3.15%), NatGas $2.87 (-0.49%). DXY 99.64 (-0.32%). 10Y yield 4.311% (-0.031), TLT $86.69 (-0.10%). BTC $68,651 (+1.98%), ETH $2,130 (+3.70%). Nikkei 53,739 (+5.24%), Hang Seng 25,275 (+1.97%), DAX 23,233 (+2.44%), CAC 7,977 (+2.05%), FTSE 10,335 (+1.56%).
Key catalysts for Wednesday April 1: (1) Trump reciprocal tariffs April 2 — the binary event, 24h away; (2) Iran de-escalation follow-through — oil -3.4% signals geopolitical premium deflating; (3) Q2 first day rotation — new quarter = fresh allocations, top sectors: Tech +5%, Industrials +5%, Materials +4%; (4) Asia surging — Nikkei +5.24% strongest rally; (5) VIX still elevated at 24.38 — regime remains cautious despite rally.
The regime score stands at 0.505, classified as Early Risk-Off. Component scores: SPX breadth 0.79 (strong rally), VIX 1.00 (still elevated at 24.38), Credit 0.58 (HYG +0.95%), DXY 0.58 (weakening at 99.64), TLT 0.53 (flat), Liquidity 0.55. Despite Tuesday’s powerful rally, the VIX component at 1.0 keeps the regime in caution territory. The April 2 tariff announcement is the key binary event that will determine whether the regime shifts to Recovery or reverts deeper into Risk-Off.
| Asset | Price | Change | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 6,528.52 | +2.91% | Rally |
| NASDAQ | 21,590.63 | +3.83% | Rally |
| Dow Jones | 46,341.51 | +2.49% | Rally |
| Russell 2000 | 2,496.37 | +3.41% | Rally |
| VIX | 24.38 | — | Elevated |
| WTI Crude | $97.95 | -3.38% | De-escalation |
| Gold | $4,738 | +1.27% | Safe Haven |
| Silver | $74.29 | -0.84% | Industrial Mix |
| 10Y Yield | 4.311% | -0.031 | Stable |
| TLT | $86.69 | -0.10% | Flat |
| DXY | 99.64 | -0.32% | USD Weak |
| BTC | $68,651 | +1.98% | Risk-On |
| ETH | $2,130 | +3.70% | Risk-On |
| Nikkei | 53,739 | +5.24% | Surge |
| Hang Seng | 25,275 | +1.97% | Rally |
| DAX | 23,233 | +2.44% | Rally |
| # | Ticker | Name | Strategy | Score | Entry | Stop | TP1 | TP2 | R/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NVDA | NVIDIA Corp | Momentum | 93 | $172–$176 | $164 | $190 | $210 | 1:1.6 |
| 2 | BA | Boeing Co | Breakout | 91 | $196–$202 | $186 | $220 | $245 | 1:1.7 |
| 3 | ASML | ASML Holding NV | Momentum | 92 | $1,300–$1,330 | $1,240 | $1,420 | $1,500 | 1:1.5 |
| 4 | COST | Costco Wholesale | Breakout | 90 | $990–$1,000 | $960 | $1,050 | $1,100 | 1:1.6 |
| 5 | JPM | JPMorgan Chase | Pullback | 89 | $290–$296 | $278 | $315 | $335 | 1:1.5 |
| 6 | XOM | Exxon Mobil | Momentum | 91 | $166–$171 | $158 | $180 | $195 | 1:1.3 |
| 7 | EWY | iShares Korea ETF | Momentum | 88 | $120–$125 | $114 | $135 | $150 | 1:1.7 |
| 8 | RTX | RTX Corporation | Pullback | 88 | $190–$195 | $180 | $210 | $225 | 1:1.6 |
| 9 | AMGN | Amgen Inc | Pullback | 87 | $348–$355 | $332 | $375 | $395 | 1:1.4 |
| 10 | EWZ | iShares Brazil ETF | Momentum | 86 | $37.50–$39 | $35.50 | $42 | $45 | 1:1.5 |
Turnover vs previous scan: 8/10 new names (80%). Carryover: XOM, NVDA. Dropped: CF (open position), EQNR (open), KO, MRK, TLT, GLD, EWA, SHEL. Added: BA, ASML, COST, JPM, EWY, RTX, AMGN, EWZ. Excluded (16 open positions): AGRO, NEM, XLE, MRVL, OXY, DVN, BBVA, CVX, EOG, FCX, SM, PSX, BG, CF, EQNR, TTE.
NVIDIA surged +5.59% to $174.40 on massive volume (225M shares), driven by Iran de-escalation lifting risk appetite and the $2B Marvell AI chip partnership. The stock remains below its MA200 ($179.34) and MA50 ($183.05) — reclaiming the 200-day average would be a major bullish signal. At $174, NVDA sits -17.8% from its 52W high ($212.19) but has nearly doubled from its 52W low of $86.62. The AI capex cycle is intact: Q4 revenue of $68.1B (+73% YoY) from Blackwell-generation chips. GTC 2026 Vera Rubin architecture confirms the roadmap. Analyst consensus Buy at $264.57 (+52% upside). The bounce from $166 lows is technically significant, but must reclaim $179 for confirmation.
Boeing surged +5.19% to $199.03, breaking above the $190-195 consolidation zone. The stock remains below both MA50 ($226.83) and MA200 ($218.57), sitting -21.7% from its 52W high ($254.35). The catalyst structure is compelling: Iran de-escalation benefits commercial aviation (lower oil = higher airline margins = more orders), defense spending secular uptrend, and Q1 earnings on April 22 provide a catalyst window. The $529B order backlog is a record. At $199, Boeing has recovered +54% from its $128.88 low. Multiple analyst upgrades: Vertical Research $281, UBS $285.
ASML is the undisputed monopoly in EUV lithography. At $1,320.83 (+5.33%), the stock trades +26.6% above its MA200 ($1,043.73), confirming a powerful structural uptrend, though it sits below MA50 ($1,395.87). ASML has surged +128% from its 52W low of $578.51. The thesis is straightforward: every advanced AI chip requires ASML machines. TSMC, Samsung, and Intel cannot build without them. JPMorgan just reiterated Buy. The combination of NVIDIA’s $2B Marvell deal, Q2 tech rotation, and European geographic diversification creates a strong setup.
Costco at $996.43 sits above both MA50 ($986.27) and MA200 ($948.25) — the strongest technical positioning of all 10 picks. The stock is just -6.6% from its 52W high ($1,067.08) and +18% from 52W low ($844.06). The fundamental catalyst: Telsey Advisory Group projects March comps +7.7%. The 98.5% membership renewal rate and inflation-resistant business model make COST a quality anchor in any Early Risk-Off portfolio. At 51.8x PE, valuation is rich but justified by consistent execution.
JPMorgan at $294.16 (+3.66%) is testing a critical confluence zone: MA50 at $299.72 and MA200 at $301.99 are just overhead. A breakout above $302 would clear both averages simultaneously — a powerful technical signal. The stock sits -12.8% from its 52W high ($337.25) and +45.5% from its 52W low ($202.16). At 14.7x PE, JPM trades at a modest valuation for the world’s largest bank. The 10Y yield at 4.31% provides NII tailwind, and Q1 trading revenue should surge from the March VIX >30 environment.
Exxon at $169.66 has the strongest trend structure of all 10 picks: +13.3% above MA50 ($149.75) and +37.9% above MA200 ($123.01). The stock is just -3.8% from its 52W high ($176.41), making this a momentum continuation play near highs. The mild -1.06% pullback on oil de-escalation (-3.4% WTI) creates an optimal entry. WTI at $97.95 is still extremely profitable for Exxon (breakeven <$40). Structural supply underinvestment globally means the oil floor remains elevated. Dividend yield 2.43%.
South Korea ETF surged +5.65% to $123.01, driven by the global tech recovery and Asia outperformance (Nikkei +5.24%). EWY trades +29.8% above its MA200 ($94.80), confirming a powerful structural uptrend, though below MA50 ($128.72). At $123, EWY has surged +153.7% from its 52W low of $48.49. Korea provides direct exposure to the AI memory chip cycle via Samsung and SK Hynix, which dominate global HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) production. DXY weakening at 99.64 benefits EM currencies and flows. At 16.5x PE, Korea is significantly cheaper than US tech.
RTX at $192.90 (+3.07%) trades +11.1% above MA200 ($173.62), confirming structural support, while pulling back to just below MA50 ($200.43). The stock is -10.1% from 52W high ($214.50) and +71.8% from 52W low ($112.27). The pullback from highs to the MA50 zone creates a textbook entry. Defense spending is in a secular uptrend: NATO expansion, Iran crisis aftermath, bipartisan US budget support. Pratt & Whitney GTF engine aftermarket provides 20+ year revenue visibility.
Amgen at $351.85 trades +10.5% above MA200 ($318.40), confirming a solid structural uptrend, while sitting just below MA50 ($362.18). The stock is -10.1% from 52W high ($391.29) and +34.6% from 52W low ($261.43). The pullback between the two moving averages creates a quality entry zone. MariTide (obesity GLP-1 dual-mechanism, monthly dosing) Phase 3 data expected H2 2026 — a $50B+ market opportunity. The existing $33B+ revenue portfolio and 2.86% dividend yield provide downside protection.
Brazil ETF at $38.39 (+4.41%) is the standout momentum play: above both MA50 ($37.26) and MA200 ($31.92), just -3.3% from its 52W high ($39.69). EWZ has surged +66.6% from its 52W low of $23.05. Brazil is the world’s largest exporter of iron ore, soybeans, coffee, and beef. Commodity superpower + DXY weakening at 99.64 + 8.5% real interest rates = structural EM tailwind. At 12.2x PE, Brazil remains the cheapest major equity market globally. The Iran de-escalation is mildly negative for oil (Petrobras headwind) but offset by broad risk-on rotation.
The scanner classifies the market into one of 5 regimes: Risk-On, Early Risk-Off, Risk-Off, Neutral, Recovery. Inputs: VIX (35% weight), S&P 500 trend (25%), credit spreads/HYG (20%), DXY momentum (10%), TLT direction (10%). Today’s score: 0.505 → Early Risk-Off. VIX component at 1.00 (24.38 still elevated), SPX component at 0.79 (strong rally), Credit at 0.58. Strategy weights: Pullback 35%, Momentum 35%, Breakout 30%.
Four complementary strategies: Momentum (close > MA200, strong trend, RSI recovering), Breakout (breaking key resistance on volume), Pullback (quality names at MA support), Pre-Squeeze (Bollinger compression + volume build). Short Squeeze excluded per policy. Covered universe: 5,900+ stocks across US, EU, APAC plus ETFs.
Technical momentum (35%): Price vs MA50/MA200, RSI, volume, trend strength. Fundamental value (25%): Forward PE, earnings growth, dividend yield. Catalyst quality (25%): Upcoming earnings, macro alignment, insider activity. Risk assessment (15%): Distance from stop, dilution check, short interest. Minimum threshold: 85/100. Today’s range: 86–93.
Before retention: (1) Open position exclusion — 16 tickers excluded today; (2) SEC filing check for S-3, ATM programs, PIPE offerings; (3) Short interest >30% float = flag; (4) Reverse split in past 6 months = disqualify; (5) Aggressive fund underwriters = disqualify.
Geographic diversification: 6 US (NVDA, BA, COST, JPM, XOM, AMGN), 1 EU (ASML), 1 Asia (EWY), 2 EM/ETF (RTX, EWZ). Sector diversification across Tech, Aerospace, Consumer, Financials, Energy, Healthcare, EM. Final ranking by composite score. Avg score: 90.5/100. Turnover: 80% (8/10 new).
⚠️ This is NOT financial advice. The DailyTickers Scanner is an educational and analytical tool. All setups are hypothetical trade ideas for informational purposes only. Past scanner performance is not indicative of future results. CRITICAL WARNING: The April 2 tariff announcement introduces a hard binary risk event. All setups could be invalidated by severe tariff escalation. Consider reducing position sizes until tariff clarity emerges. Do your own research before trading.
Data sources: Yahoo Finance, DailyTickers MCP Gateway, Financial Times, Reuters. Regime score: 0.505 (Early Risk-Off). VIX: 24.38. Scan timestamp: March 31, 2026 21:00 UTC (for Wednesday April 1 open). Scanner version 6.0.