Oracle is two stocks at once. The business just printed a record quarter: revenue up 21%, OCI up 93%, RPO at $638B after +363% in a year — and management held FY2027 revenue guidance at $90B while lifting the FY27 EPS guide to $8.05. Yet the stock lost 43% from its early-June high of $250.25 anyway, because those same AI contracts demand $55.7B of capex the company must finance externally: ~$30B already raised of a $45-50B debt-and-equity program including mandatory convertibles, plus a $20B ATM equity program with no sales disclosed through the February quarter — but 15 additional sales agents added on June 23. Add Larry Ellison's ~$40.4B personal guarantee on the Paramount/WBD deal, backed by his ORCL trust stake, and you get a fundamentally strong company whose share price carries financing and overhang risks the income statement never shows. At 141.85, after a one-day +9.2% bounce that left the price 7% above its 20-day average, chasing is the mistake. The levels that change the picture: 130-132 holding on a pullback, or a confirmed close back above 150.
| Metric | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (TTM) | $67.4B | +20.6% y/y |
| EBITDA (TTM) | $30.5B | Healthy |
| Gross Margin | 65.8% | Strong |
| Operating Margin | 36.2% | Strong |
| Net Income (TTM) | $17.1B | 25.4% margin |
| Total Debt | $167.4B | vs $31.9B cash |
| Debt / Equity | 4.46 | Leverage-heavy |
| ROE | 53.4% | Leverage-inflated |
| Forward PE | ~17.6x | On FY27 guided EPS $8.05 |
| PEG | ~0.85 | GARP |
| EV / EBITDA | ~17.8x | Fair |
| Price / Book | 9.24x | No value floor |
| Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Est. | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 (cal.) | $1.47 | $1.48 | -0.6% |
| Q4 2025 (cal.) | $2.26 | $1.64 | +38% |
| Q1 2026 (cal.) | $1.79 | $1.69 | +5.7% |
| Q2 2026 (cal.) | $2.11 | $1.96 | +7.5% |
Three consecutive beats since the hair-thin miss a year ago (1.47 vs 1.479). The June 2026 report was a record quarter operationally, yet the stock still fell 8.5% the next session on the $55.7B capex guide, even as management held the $90B FY27 revenue guide and lifted FY27 EPS guidance to $8.05 on the same call. — Next: 2026-09-09
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-24 | Jeffrey Henley (Vice Chairman) | Sell | 400,000 | $63.7M — options exercised at $40.93, all shares sold at $156-166, position now zero |
| 2026-05-31 | Moorman, Fairhead, Chizen, Boskin, Berg (Directors) | Award | 2,114 each | Routine RSU grants at $0 |
| 2026-07-05 → 2026-08-04 | All insiders | None | 0 | No Form 4 filed in the last 30 days |
0 open-market buys vs 11 sells in 90 days. A full exercise-and-sale by a Vice Chairman during the drawdown is not the signature of insiders who think the bottom is in.
Historically buyback-heavy ($5.3B in FY2025); now a net issuer — H1 2026 buybacks ~$95M, buyback yield -0.33%, SBC outpacing repurchases
Series record on a rising trend: ~1.2% (mid-2025) → 2.03% (Jan) → 2.45% (Jun 30) → 2.92% at the 2026-07-15 settlement (50.1M shares). Cheap borrow, no squeeze setup. Shorts are building, not trapped.
Unusual Activity: Aggressive call buying into the 2026-08-07 weekly: 140C (22.3k vol, 2.6× avg), 148C (4.3×), 150C (37.6k, 2.2×), 160C (26.2k). Put/call OI 0.47, so positioning leans long into the bounce. Implied-volatility readings on this chain print in unreliable increments, so we exclude them here.
| RSI (14) | 53.2 |
| EMA 20 | $132.56 |
| EMA 50 | $150.01 |
| EMA 200 | $183.81 |
| MACD | -8.585 |
| Signal | -12.087 |
| ATR (14) | $8.13 |
Monday's +9.2% is a relief rally inside a broken trend: price reclaimed the EMA20 (132.56) but sits 5.4% below the EMA50 (150.01) and 23% below the EMA200 (183.81), with MACD still negative. The 130-132 zone stacks three references (max pain 130, EMA20, Monday's open) and the July double-bottom sits at 114.50. Overhead, 150 combines the EMA50 with the week's biggest call wall. At 7% above the EMA20 after a single green day, whoever buys here is paying up for Monday's move.
The three risks that matter all sit on the balance sheet or at the ownership level: financing $55.7B of capex through debt, mandatory converts and a live-but-unused $20B ATM; the Ellison guarantee behind a contested ~$110B media deal; and a shareholder-return engine that has flipped from buybacks to net issuance.
The operating business earned a higher price; the capital structure and the Ellison pledge are why it doesn't get one yet. Trade the levels, not the narrative: accumulation only where three references stack (130-132), or on proof of trend repair above 150. Size for the tape, too: ATR is $8.13 — 5.7% of spot — on a 1.71-beta name, so keep the dollar risk fixed and cut the share count roughly in half versus a calm large-cap.
A stock down 43% on a record backlog means the market is pricing the financing of that backlog, and it has been on the right side of that trade since mid-June. Respect the levels that would prove it wrong instead of arguing with it at market.
This analysis is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or solicitation to buy or sell any security.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Always conduct your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Data sourced from real-time market data, Yahoo Finance, SEC EDGAR, and public market data. Accuracy is not guaranteed.