🔴 EARLY RISK-OFF Thursday, May 21, 2026 10 Setups A+ ⚠ Regime Shift — EARLY RISK-OFF (probability 0.50) ⚠ Heavy earnings May 21 BMO/AMC — 16 names excluded

Scanner DailyTickers — Thursday, May 21, 2026

Top 10 A+ EARLY RISK-OFF — JNJ, PG, DUK, NEM, VZ, AZN, NSRGY, TSM, TLT, GLD

RegimeEARLY RISK-OFF
Avg Score89.7
Setups10
DominantPullback + Momentum
VIX~22 (Climbing — defensive tilt)
SPXn/a
🟠 EARLY RISK-OFF Persists — Regime probability ladder reads 0.10 / 0.25 / 0.50 / 0.15 (risk-on / neutral / early risk-off / crisis), expected SPY -0.05% over 5d, expected drawdown 4.78%. This scan pivots defensive: 3 healthcare/staples (JNJ, PG, NSRGY), 2 utilities/telecom (DUK, VZ), 2 gold (NEM, GLD), 1 EU pharma (AZN), 1 Asia semis (TSM, NVDA read-through), 1 duration hedge (TLT, decorrelator). VWAP entry gate active. Position size tilted -25% vs RISK-ON baseline.
⚠ Regime Shift — EARLY RISK-OFF (probability 0.50): GetRegimeProbability returns early_risk_off 50%, crisis 15%, neutral 25%, risk_on 10%. Expected SPY return next 5d: -0.05%, expected drawdown 4.78%. Yesterday's scan (20260520) was already tagged EARLY RISK-OFF at score 40. This scan continues the defensive pivot: 3 staples/healthcare (JNJ, PG, NSRGY), 2 utilities/telecom (DUK, VZ), 1 EU pharma (AZN), 2 gold (NEM, GLD), 1 Asia semis (TSM, NVDA read-through), 1 duration hedge (TLT). Risk gate v1: position size halved (50%); entry filters tilted Pullback (60%) > Momentum (30%) > Breakout (10%).
⚠ Heavy earnings May 21 BMO/AMC — 16 names excluded: BMO: WMT, DE, WSM, NTES, NIO, RL, WMS. AMC: ROST, TTWO, ZM, DECK, CPRT, WDAY, ZM. NVDA reports tonight AMC (today) — TSM holds as a read-through (sister fab/AI demand). May 22 BMO: BJ. All listed names disqualified ±3 trading days.

Regime score 0.40 (EARLY RISK-OFF). Component picture: VIX climbing toward 22, expected SPY return next-5d -0.05%, expected DD 4.78%. Transition matrix from current state stays mostly in EARLY RISK-OFF (29%) or neutral (28%) over 5d, with crisis tail 20%. The takeaway: not a panic, but a sentiment regime where defensives outperform and growth/cyclical names suffer multiple compression. Strategy weights: Pullback 60%, Momentum 30%, Breakout 10%.

Session strategy: Four defensive themes converge: (1) Healthcare leadership — JNJ pullback to 50-DMA, AZN at 200-DMA bid. (2) Staples value — PG at 52w-low contrarian zone, NSRGY tight consolidation at 50-DMA. (3) Yield + duration — DUK utility 3.42% yield at 200-DMA, VZ telecom 5.93% yield, TLT long-duration Treasury hedge (decorrelator, replaces XLP that overlapped PG). (4) Gold + safe-haven — GLD pullback to 200-DMA, NEM tight 3.7% stop revised after risk QA. TSM as the one offensive bet (NVDA earnings read-through). Average score 89.7, all R/R ≥ 1.5, all extension caps respected.

Thursday, May 21, 2026

Market Regime: EARLY RISK-OFF (Score 0.4)

Regime score 0.40 (EARLY RISK-OFF). Component picture: VIX climbing toward 22, expected SPY return next-5d -0.05%, expected DD 4.78%. Transition matrix from current state stays mostly in EARLY RISK-OFF (29%) or neutral (28%) over 5d, with crisis tail 20%. The takeaway: not a panic, but a sentiment regime where defensives outperform and growth/cyclical names suffer multiple compression. Strategy weights: Pullback 60%, Momentum 30%, Breakout 10%.

Market Snapshot (Thursday, May 21, 2026)

Index / AssetPriceChangeSignal
RegimeEARLY RISK-OFFP=0.50Defensive tilt ⚠
VIX~22+climbingCaution required ⚠
Expected SPY 5d-0.05%Neg driftReduce equity beta
Expected DD 5d4.78%ElevatedTighter stops
Gold$4,567+0.13%Safe-haven bid ✅
WTI Crude$101.83+0.80%Energy steady
10Y Yield4.62%+0.03%Rates topping
DXY98.97-0.31%Weak dollar — gold tailwind ✅

EARLY RISK-OFF playbook in 4 lines

(1) Tilt defensive — staples, healthcare, utilities outperform when growth multiple compresses. (2) Pullback over Breakout — in negative-drift regime, momentum names get sold; only buy at support after a controlled retracement. (3) Position size halved — expected DD jumped from 2.9% to 4.78%; cut nominal exposure to keep portfolio-level VaR constant. (4) Gold + duration — GLD and TLT (when TLT pulls back) are the cleanest portfolio hedges. The risk-off tape doesn't necessarily mean crash — it means lower expected return and higher tail risk per unit of beta. Match the regime, don't fight it.

Visual Overview — 10 Setups

JNJ Johnson & 🇺🇸 PG Procter & 🇺🇸 DUK Duke Energy 🇺🇸 NEM Newmont Corporation 🇺🇸 VZ Verizon Communications 🇺🇸 AZN AstraZeneca 🇬🇧 NSRGY Nestlé SA 🇨🇭 TSM Taiwan Semiconductor 🇹🇼 TLT iShares 20+ 📊 GLD SPDR Gold 📊

Macro Context — Week of Thursday, May 21, 2026

Global Events Calendar

DateEventImpactDirection Risk
Wed May 20NVDA Q1 Earnings (AMC)EXTREMEImplied move ~5.9%, $5.4T mcap = market mover
Wed May 20FOMC MinutesHIGHApril meeting language
Thu May 21WMT Q1 Earnings (BMO)HIGHConsumer health, excluded from scan
Thu May 21DE Q2 Earnings (BMO)HIGHAg cycle, industrials read
Thu May 21Jobless ClaimsMediumLabor resilience check
Thu May 21Existing Home SalesMediumHousing channel
Fri May 22Flash PMIs (mfg+services)HIGHActivity prints
Fri May 22New Home SalesMediumHousing follow-through

Sector Rotation Scorecard

Sector (ETF)Week PerformanceRegime SignalOur Exposure
Staples (XLP)+0.3%Leading — defensive bidPG #2, NSRGY #7
Bonds (TLT)+1.1%Duration bid — FOMC catalyst pendingTLT #9 (decorrelator)
Healthcare (XLV)+0.5%Strong — J&J, LLY, AZN leading rotationJNJ #1, AZN #6
Utilities (XLU)+0.6%Bid — yield + AI data center demandDUK #3
Telecom+0.2%Stable — defensive yieldVZ #5
Gold / Materials+1.4%Safe-haven flow — gold ATHNEM #4, GLD #10
Asia Semis (AI infra)+2.3%Pre-NVDA bid — TSM read-throughTSM #8
US Tech (XLK)-1.2%Underperforming — multiple compressionNone — sector excluded
Small caps (IWM)-1.5%Weakest — risk-off liquidationNone — sector excluded

Week-Ahead Thesis

The EARLY RISK-OFF regime (probability 0.50, expected SPY -0.05% over 5d, expected DD 4.78%) is the dominant signal for Thursday. The model components: VIX climbing, expected drawdown elevated, transitions tilted away from RISK-ON. The portfolio response is to swap growth/cyclical exposure for defensive cash-flow generators: (1) Healthcare via JNJ (pharma + medical devices) and AZN (oncology pipeline) — both at 50-DMA/200-DMA support with secular pipelines insulating from macro. (2) Staples via PG (52w-low contrarian), NSRGY (Swiss consumer giant, weak USD tailwind), and XLP (sector beta). (3) Utilities + Telecom yield via DUK (3.42% yield, AI grid demand) and VZ (5.93% yield, P/E 9). (4) Safe-haven via GLD (gold ETF, pullback to 200-DMA) and NEM (largest US miner, deep value at P/E 9.5). The one risk-on holdover is TSM — deeply secular AI capex bid, and the read-through trade on NVDA earnings tonight. Position size cut 25% vs RISK-ON baseline; entry filters tilted toward Pullback (60%) over Momentum (30%) and Breakout (10%).

#1 JNJ — Johnson & Johnson

JNJ — Johnson & Johnson

Pharma / Medical Devices • NYSE • ~$552B mcap
$229.32
-0.30%
US 🇺🇸 Pullback Score 91 Defensive Healthcare50-DMA Test ☪ Halal
JNJ FinViz Chart

JNJ at $229.32 pulling back to 50-DMA $234, -2.01% extension. 200-DMA $209.83 secular floor. Defensive healthcare leader benefits from EARLY RISK-OFF rotation. Forward P/E 18.0, 2.33% yield, AAA balance sheet. Entry $227-$232 below 50-DMA, stop $220 (~4% risk), R:R 1.63 to TP1 $245 reclaim above MA, TP2 $252 52w high.

✅ Confirmations

❌ Invalidations

Entry: $227–$232
Stop Loss: $220.00
TP1: $245.00
TP2: $252.00
R/R: 1:1.63
Horizon: 10 days

#2 PG — Procter & Gamble

PG — Procter & Gamble

Consumer Staples / Household • NYSE • ~$332B mcap
$142.44
+0.81%
US 🇺🇸 Pullback Score 90 52w-Low ZoneDefensive Yield ☪ Halal
PG FinViz Chart

PG at $142.44 within $5 of 52w low ($137.62), -2.08% below 50-DMA $145, -5.03% below 200-DMA. +0.81% Monday relative strength on weak tape = early contrarian signal. 3.01% yield, forward P/E 20.1, organic growth 4-5% steady. Entry $141-$144 in oversold zone, stop $135 below 52w low, TP1 $154 break above 50-DMA, TP2 $165 prior range.

✅ Confirmations

❌ Invalidations

Entry: $141–$144
Stop Loss: $135.00
TP1: $154.00
TP2: $165.00
R/R: 1:1.53
Horizon: 10 days

#3 DUK — Duke Energy

DUK — Duke Energy

Regulated Utility • NYSE • ~$97B mcap
$123.81
-0.60%
US 🇺🇸 Pullback Score 89 3.42% YieldAI Grid Demand CONV
DUK FinViz Chart

Duke Energy at $123.81 testing 200-DMA $124.08. Regulated utility, defensive bid in EARLY RISK-OFF regime. 3.42% yield, P/E 19.0, predictable regulated returns. AI data center power demand secular tailwind for grid operators in the SE. Entry $122-$125 at 200-DMA, stop $119 below recent base, R:R 2.0 to TP1 $134 52w high, TP2 $142.

✅ Confirmations

❌ Invalidations

Entry: $122–$125
Stop Loss: $119.00
TP1: $134.00
TP2: $142.00
R/R: 1:2.0
Horizon: 10 days

#4 NEM — Newmont Corporation

NEM — Newmont Corporation

Gold Mining / Materials • NYSE • ~$115B mcap
$107.39
+2.19%
US 🇺🇸 Pullback Score 90 Gold ATH+2.19% Mon ☪ Halal
NEM FinViz Chart

Newmont at $107.39, +2.19% Monday — largest US gold producer ride on gold ATH at $4,567. 200-DMA $98.80 well below = secular uptrend intact. Pullback from $134 cycle high to $105-$109 zone — classic mean-revert. Forward P/E 9.5 — cheap on $90/oz operating costs. Stop $99 protects 200-DMA. R:R 1.5 to TP1 $119, TP2 $128 prior congestion.

✅ Confirmations

❌ Invalidations

Entry: $105–$109
Stop Loss: $103.00
TP1: $119.00
TP2: $128.00
R/R: 1:3.0
Horizon: 10 days

#5 VZ — Verizon Communications

VZ — Verizon Communications

Telecom / Wireless • NYSE • ~$200B mcap
$47.82
+0.17%
US 🇺🇸 Pullback Score 88 5.93% YieldP/E 9 CONV
VZ FinViz Chart

Verizon at $47.82, just under 50-DMA $48.23, +0.17% Monday. Deep-value telecom: 5.93% dividend yield, forward P/E 9.07, FCF coverage >1.2x. 52w high $51.68 within 8% reach. Entry $47-$48.50 in MA-test zone, stop $45.5 below recent base (~4.7% risk), R:R 1.89 to TP1 $52 break to 52w high, TP2 $55.50.

✅ Confirmations

❌ Invalidations

Entry: $47–$48.50
Stop Loss: $45.50
TP1: $52.00
TP2: $55.50
R/R: 1:1.89
Horizon: 10 days

#6 AZN — AstraZeneca

AZN — AstraZeneca

EU Pharma / Oncology • NASDAQ (ADR) • ~$291B mcap
$187.46
+1.53%
EU (UK) 🇬🇧 Pullback Score 90 EU PharmaOncology Pipeline ☪ Halal
AZN FinViz Chart

AstraZeneca at $187.46, +1.53% Monday on weak tape. -2.14% below 50-DMA $191.56, 200-DMA $179.64 close support. Oncology franchise (Tagrisso, Imfinzi, Enhertu) + cardiovascular Farxiga = secular growth engine. Entry $185-$189 at MA-test zone, stop $180 protecting 200-DMA. R:R 2.14 to TP1 $202 reclaim 50-DMA.

✅ Confirmations

❌ Invalidations

Entry: $185–$189
Stop Loss: $180.00
TP1: $202.00
TP2: $213.00
R/R: 1:2.14
Horizon: 10 days

#7 NSRGY — Nestlé SA

NSRGY — Nestlé SA

Consumer Staples / Food • OTC (ADR) • ~$256B mcap
$99.71
-1.11%
EU (CH) 🇨🇭 Momentum Score 89 Swiss Defensive3.97% Yield ☪ Halal
NSRGY FinViz Chart

Nestlé ADR at $99.71, hugging 50-DMA $99.43 with tight 30-day consolidation. Swiss consumer staples mega-cap, defensive bid in risk-off. 3.97% yield, forward P/E 16.4. Weak USD (DXY 98.97 -0.31%) tailwind for CHF-denominated revenue. Entry $98-$101 in consolidation zone, stop $94 below base. R:R 1.55 to TP1 $108 52w-high zone.

✅ Confirmations

❌ Invalidations

Entry: $98–$101
Stop Loss: $94.00
TP1: $108.00
TP2: $115.00
R/R: 1:1.55
Horizon: 10 days

#8 TSM — Taiwan Semiconductor

TSM — Taiwan Semiconductor

Semiconductor Foundry / AI Capex • NYSE (ADR) • ~$2.08T mcap
$401.62
+2.29%
Asia (TW) 🇹🇼 Momentum Score 91 NVDA Read-Through+2.29% Mon ☪ Halal
TSM FinViz Chart

TSM at $401.62, +2.29% Monday — leadership on a weak tape. Sole-source AI accelerator capacity for NVDA / AVGO / AMD. 50-DMA $369.61 well below = clean uptrend. NVDA reports Wed AMC; TSM is the secular read-through — even if NVDA prints in-line, TSM is the picks-and-shovels play. Entry $395-$406, stop $378 below 50-DMA, R:R 1.70 to TP1 $440 break above 52w high $421.97.

✅ Confirmations

❌ Invalidations

Entry: $395–$406
Stop Loss: $378.00
TP1: $440.00
TP2: $470.00
R/R: 1:1.70
Horizon: 10 days

#9 TLT — iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF

TLT — iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF

Long-duration US Treasury ETF • NASDAQ • AUM ~$50B
$83.91
+1.07%
ETF 📊 Pullback Score 89 Duration HedgeUncorrelated CONV
TLT FinViz Chart

TLT at $83.91, +1.07% Monday on weak tape. Long-duration Treasury bid in EARLY RISK-OFF regime (P=0.50). 50-DMA $86.22 and 200-DMA $88.10 both above = mean-revert bounce setup. 30Y around 5.15% near cycle high. Entry $82-$85, stop $81 (~3.5% risk) below cycle low $82.77, R:R 1.75 to TP1 $89. Uncorrelated with equity longs — replaces XLP (which overlapped PG at ~85% rho) as pure portfolio hedge. FOMC Minutes May 20 binary upside catalyst.

✅ Confirmations

❌ Invalidations

Entry: $82–$85
Stop Loss: $81.00
TP1: $89.00
TP2: $92.00
R/R: 1:1.75
Horizon: 10 days

#10 GLD — SPDR Gold Shares

GLD — SPDR Gold Shares

Physical Gold ETF • NYSE Arca • AUM ~$110B
$417.40
+1.43%
ETF 📊 Pullback Score 90 Safe-HavenGold ATH ☪ Halal
GLD FinViz Chart

GLD at $417.40, +1.43% Monday on weak tape. -3.39% pullback from 50-DMA $432, but 200-DMA $398.54 still below = uptrend intact. Pure safe-haven ballast in EARLY RISK-OFF regime (P(crisis) 0.15, P(early_risk_off) 0.50). Real rates compressing as 10Y stabilizes 4.62%. Entry $415-$420, stop $405 above 200-DMA support, R:R 2.33 to TP1 $445 reclaim 50-DMA.

✅ Confirmations

❌ Invalidations

Entry: $415–$420
Stop Loss: $404.00
TP1: $445.00
TP2: $475.00
R/R: 1:2.15
Horizon: 10 days

Synthesis — 10 Setup Summary

#TickerNameRegionStrategyScoreEntryStopTP1R/R
1JNJJohnson & JohnsonUSPullback91$227$220$2451:1.63
2PGProcter & GambleUSPullback90$141$135$1541:1.53
3DUKDuke EnergyUSPullback89$122$119$1341:2.0
4NEMNewmont CorporationUSPullback90$105$103$1191:3.0
5VZVerizon CommunicationsUSPullback88$47$45.5$521:1.89
6AZNAstraZenecaEU (UK)Pullback90$185$180$2021:2.14
7NSRGYNestlé SAEU (CH)Momentum89$98$94$1081:1.55
8TSMTaiwan SemiconductorAsia (TW)Momentum91$395$378$4401:1.70
9TLTiShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFETFPullback89$82$81$891:1.75
10GLDSPDR Gold SharesETFPullback90$415$404$4451:2.15

Portfolio Parameters & Historical Performance

Performance data will be available after the sweep cycle completes.

How to use these levels

Entry zones are ranges — enter at the open (9:30–9:45 ET) if price falls within range. For EU setups, enter at the London open or early US session ADR price. Stop losses are hard exits, not mental stops. TP1 is the primary profit target: take 50% off at TP1, move stop to breakeven, trail the remainder to TP2. R/R ratios assume entry at the midpoint of the range. Horizon is the expected time to TP1 — if TP1 is not hit within 2× the horizon, reassess.

Methodology

1. Market Regime Detection

We compute a composite regime score from 6 components: VIX (sub-20 = 0 = bullish), SPX breadth (above 50/200 DMA), Credit (HYG spread normalization), DXY (weak dollar = bullish for multinationals), Liquidity (Fed balance sheet trend), and TLT (bond market signal). Score range 0–1: 0–0.30 = RISK-ON, 0.30–0.50 = NEUTRAL/Early Risk-Off, 0.50–0.70 = RISK-OFF, >0.70 = DEEP RISK-OFF. The VIX close behavior is the primary confirmation signal.

2. Multi-Strategy Screening

We run 3 complementary DSL screens: (a) Momentum Expansion: close>sma(close,20) && vol>sma(vol,20)*1.5 && rsi14>50 && rsi14<75, (b) Breakout Squeeze: close>sma(close,50) && atr(14)>atr(28)*1.2, (c) Pullback-to-Support: rsi14<45 && close>sma(close,200) && close<sma(close,50)*1.05. Screened universe: US mega-caps, EU/ADR large-caps, Asian ADRs, and sector ETFs. Short Squeeze is excluded from all screens per protocol established March 20, 2026.

3. Composite Scoring (4 Factors)

Each setup receives a score 0–100 based on: Technical (40%) — RSI position, MACD signal, SMA alignment, volume vs average; Momentum (30%) — 1-week, 1-month, 3-month price performance; Confluence (20%) — number of independent signals aligned (min 3 required for A+); Catalyst (10%) — identifiable near-term catalyst (earnings, sector rotation, macro event). Only setups scoring ≥85 qualify as A+.

4. Anti-Dilution & Quality Filter

All selected tickers are vetted for dilution risk: no S-3 shelf registrations, ATM programs, PIPE structures, or aggressive underwriter relationships. Short Squeeze permanently excluded. Open-position exclusions applied per current portfolio state.

5. Validation & Ranking

Final ranking prioritizes: (1) earnings catalyst recency/quality, (2) geopolitical/macro thematic alignment, (3) momentum quality, (4) diversification requirements (min 5 US, 2 EU, 1 Asia, 2 ETF). R/R minimum of 1:1.5 enforced for all setups. Sharia compliance tagged on every setup.

Data Sources

  • Price data: Yahoo Finance (via DailyTickers Gateway)
  • Market regime: DailyTickers RunAutoScreener (6-component model)
  • Screening: RunScreener DSL (3 strategies: momentum, breakout, pullback)
  • Fundamental data: MCP QueryData (quote, social_sentiment, capital_flow, insider_transactions)
  • Generated: Thursday, May 21, 2026

Disclaimer

This scanner is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

All setups carry risk. Past performance of the DailyTickers scanner does not guarantee future results. Entry zones, stops, and targets are estimates based on technical analysis and are not guarantees of execution. Market conditions can change rapidly.

DailyTickers is not a registered investment advisor. All content is provided “as is” without warranty of any kind. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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