Top 10 A+ RISK-ON — LLY, TGTX, MSFT, FCX, TPL, COST, AZN, SAP, EWJ, GLD
Regime score 0.87 — classified as RISK-ON for the 5th consecutive session. Component scores: VIX 1.00 (sub-17 close, fear absent), SPX breadth 1.00 (above 50-DMA and 200-DMA despite today’s dip), Credit 1.00 (HYG spreads tight), DXY 0.75 (dollar neutral). Today’s -0.74% decline is classified as a sector rotation day (healthcare leads, tech lags) not a regime shift. GetRegimeProbability model (ensemble, 5-day horizon) returns NEUTRAL at 35.6% probability — slight tension with AutoScreener regime. Decision: override to RISK-ON based on live component scores and 5-session streak. Strategy weights for Thursday: Momentum 50%, Pullback 35%, Pre-Squeeze 15%.
Session strategy: Thursday’s scan is built around four themes: (1) Healthcare re-rotation — LLY and TGTX are leading the market up while tech drags; healthcare is the RISK-ON defensive quality play this week. (2) Tech recovery post-AVGO — MSFT at -3.2% intraday is a buy-the-dip if AVGO beats tonight; the UOA call flow is massive. (3) Real asset commodity plays — FCX copper and TPL Permian royalties are pure RISK-ON expressions; both broke out on strong volume. (4) Quality Pullback trio — COST at 200DMA, AZN deeply oversold, GLD consolidating near 52w high support. Avoid semis ETF (SMH overextended, RSI=78) and Korea ETF (EWY overextended +32% above 50DMA). Focus on names with confirmed technical health and institutional options flow.
Regime score 0.87 — classified as RISK-ON for the 5th consecutive session. Component scores: VIX 1.00 (sub-17 close, fear absent), SPX breadth 1.00 (above 50-DMA and 200-DMA despite today’s dip), Credit 1.00 (HYG spreads tight), DXY 0.75 (dollar neutral). Today’s -0.74% decline is classified as a sector rotation day (healthcare leads, tech lags) not a regime shift. GetRegimeProbability model (ensemble, 5-day horizon) returns NEUTRAL at 35.6% probability — slight tension with AutoScreener regime. Decision: override to RISK-ON based on live component scores and 5-session streak. Strategy weights for Thursday: Momentum 50%, Pullback 35%, Pre-Squeeze 15%.
| Index / Asset | Price | Change | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,553 | -0.74% | Above 50 & 200 DMA ✅ |
| Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) | ~$515 | -0.89% | Pre-AVGO earnings dip ⚠ |
| Russell 2000 (IWM) | 287.67 | -1.4% | Lag vs large-cap ⚠ |
| VIX | ~16.5 | Sub-17 (RISK-ON) | RISK-ON confirmed 🟢 |
| Gold (GLD) | $407.87 | -1.0% | Pullback buy setup 📈 |
| Copper (FCX) | $70.64 | -1.5% | At 52-week high range ✅ |
| 10Y Treasury | ~4.3% | Stable | No rate shock ✅ |
| DXY | ~100 | Neutral | No FX headwind |
Today SPX declined -0.74% and NASDAQ fell -0.89%. Yet our regime remains RISK-ON. Why? Because regime classification is about structure, not noise. Today’s decline has a clear, identifiable cause: investors selling tech names ahead of AVGO and CRWD earnings (pre-event risk reduction, not macro deterioration). The evidence: VIX is still sub-17 — options markets are NOT pricing fear. HYG credit spreads are tight — bond markets are NOT pricing recession risk. The SPX remains above both its 50-DMA and 200-DMA. Healthcare stocks like LLY and TGTX rose today — this is sector rotation, not flight to safety. When you see healthcare outperforming while tech sells off on a flat VIX day, that is the signature of a healthy, rotating bull market, not the beginning of a bear. Hold the regime. Position in the leaders.
| Date | Event | Impact | Direction Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thu Jun 4 (pre-mkt) | AVGO Q2 Earnings (AMC Jun 3) | HIGH | Consensus $1.65 EPS; AI networking segment is the read-through |
| Thu Jun 4 (pre-mkt) | CRWD Q1 Earnings (AMC Jun 3) | HIGH | ARR acceleration expected; cybersecurity sentiment read |
| Thu Jun 4 | US Initial Jobless Claims | Medium | Consensus ~220K; strong labor = RISK-ON confirmation |
| Thu Jun 4 | US Non-Farm Productivity (Q1 rev) | Low | Revision of Q1 data; low market impact |
| Thu Jun 5 | US Nonfarm Payrolls (May) | HIGH | Next key macro event; strong jobs = mixed (inflation vs growth) |
| Sector (ETF) | Week Performance | Regime Signal | Our Exposure |
|---|---|---|---|
| Healthcare (XLV) | +0.8% | Leading — LLY +1.4%, TGTX +9.5% | LLY #1 (Momentum), TGTX #2 (Momentum), AZN #7 (Pullback) |
| Materials (XLB) | +0.4% | Positive — copper outperforming | FCX #4 (Momentum), GLD #10 (Pullback) |
| Energy (XLE) | +0.2% | Moderate — TPL royalty play | TPL #5 (Pullback) |
| Technology (XLK) | -1.2% | Lagging — pre-AVGO/CRWD earnings tax | MSFT #3 (Momentum), SAP #8 (Momentum EU) |
| Consumer Staples (XLP) | -0.1% | Flat — COST pullback to 200DMA | COST #6 (Pullback) |
| APAC / Japan | +0.4% | Constructive — Nikkei governance reforms | EWJ #9 (Momentum ETF) |
| Semis (SMH/SOXX) | -1.8% | Pre-earnings pressure — EXCLUDED | Excluded: SMH RSI=78, +29% above 50DMA |
Thursday’s scan crystallises around two observations: (1) Healthcare is the new RISK-ON leader — on a day when the market sold off -0.74%, LLY rose +1.4% and TGTX surged +9.5%. This is not defensive rotation — this is sector leadership in an ongoing bull market. The GLP-1 supercycle (LLY) and the biotech commercial ramp (TGTX’s Briumvi multiple sclerosis drug) are secular growth stories that do not depend on the daily macro noise. (2) The AVGO binary is set up asymmetrically bullish — the market sold tech aggressively today (fear of a miss), setting up MSFT and other AI names for a relief rally if AVGO delivers. MSFT’s call flow (60,000+ contracts at $427-$440 strikes expiring today, likely rolled to next week) signals institutional conviction that tech recovers Thursday. The copper (FCX) and gold (GLD) setups provide real-asset portfolio ballast: FCX broke through its 52-week high earlier this week, and GLD’s -4% pullback from all-time highs is a buy-the-dip opportunity in a structurally bull gold market.
Eli Lilly is the most compelling momentum setup in today’s scan. While the S&P 500 fell -0.74%, LLY gained +1.4% to $1,078 — a clear signal of sector leadership rotation into healthcare. The GLP-1 supercycle (tirzepatide/Mounjaro for obesity and diabetes) is a secular growth story: LLY’s forward PE of 24.2x is discounted relative to the growth rate, with 2026 revenue expected to exceed $60B. RSI 62.1 (healthy, not overbought), 12.3% above 50-DMA. Unusually bullish options flow: call sweep at $1,130 strike for Jun 5 expiry with 2.1x open interest. The technical structure shows a stock that is accelerating while the market consolidates — exactly the confluence required for a top-score setup.
TG Therapeutics is a commercial-stage biotech with an approved multiple sclerosis drug (ublituximab/Briumvi) gaining market share against Roche and Biogen. The stock surged +9.5% today on volume of 3.6M (nearly 2x average), which is a momentum continuation signal, not a one-day spike. RSI 57.4 — momentum is early, confirming there is room to run. EMA20 crossed above EMA50 in early May, and MACD is strongly positive. At $6.1B market cap and $40 price, TGTX represents the sweet spot of the healthcare opportunity: large enough to avoid micro-cap manipulation risk ($500M+ mcap filter ✅), small enough to generate asymmetric returns. The 52-week high is $44.65 — the target sits just at that resistance level.
Microsoft fell -3.2% today on tech sympathy selling ahead of AVGO and CRWD earnings. This is the cleanest buy-the-dip setup in the scan: a mega-cap AI leader with no binary event of its own, sold purely on sector sentiment. The options market is screaming bullish: 60,000+ contracts at $427-$440 strike prices expiring today suggest institutions were buying calls aggressively into the dip, betting on an AVGO beat recovery. Azure cloud revenue growing 35%+ QoQ. Copilot AI assistant monetization is accelerating enterprise ARPU. MSFT trades at 22x forward EPS — historically cheap for its growth trajectory. RSI 52.6 = healthy reset, not a trend break.
Freeport-McMoRan is the world’s largest publicly traded copper company, and copper is the quintessential RISK-ON commodity. FCX trades near its 52-week high ($72.09) after a sustained breakout from $35 lows in March. Today’s -1.5% pullback is a normal consolidation within the uptrend. RSI 64.3, 12.9% above 50-DMA. EMA20 > EMA50 > EMA200 — trend alignment on all timeframes. Copper demand is structural: AI data centers require 4-5x more copper than traditional server farms; EV transition requires 3x more copper per vehicle than ICE. The energy transition supercycle is still in its first innings.
Texas Pacific Land Corporation is the largest private landowner in the Permian Basin (900,000+ acres) and earns royalties on every barrel of oil and cubic foot of gas produced on its land — zero exploration or capex risk. TPL corrected -24% from its February $547 high to $370, now recovering. Today’s +9.7% snap-back on strong volume is the signal: the 200-DMA at $366 held as support, and RSI 50.5 has reset from oversold levels. This is a Pullback setup in a structurally premium energy royalty business. TPL also earns water services revenues as Permian operators drill more wells — a growing second revenue stream.
Costco is the highest-quality consumer staples business in the world, and it is currently trading at its 200-DMA with RSI 37.8 — oversold by any measure. The stock fell from $1,060 (May 21 sell signal) to $962 today — a clean -9.3% correction to 200-DMA support. Today’s 10-Q filing confirms membership metrics remain healthy (Q2 FY2026 data). The bullish call flow is decisive: $960-$995 strikes, 2-14x average volume on Jun 5 expiry — institutional buyers are positioning for the 200-DMA bounce. COST has bounced from its 200-DMA 7 of the last 8 times in the past 3 years.
AstraZeneca is Europe’s largest pharmaceutical company by market cap, and at $176 it is deeply oversold: RSI 33.2, -7.5% below its 50-DMA, trading near its 52-week low territory. The put IV spike at $90 strike (far OTM Jun 18) is a classic capitulation signal — speculative put buyers protecting against a crash that is already priced in. AZN’s pipeline is genuinely strong: osimertinib (Tagrisso, lung cancer market leader), camizestrant (breast cancer, Phase 3 readout pending), datopotamab deruxtecan (TROP2, multiple solid tumors). Forward PE 22x is historically cheap for AZN. The 1.78% dividend yield provides a floor.
SAP SE is Europe’s largest enterprise software company and the global leader in ERP systems, with 400,000+ enterprise customers. After falling from $244 (January high) to $161 in May, SAP is now recovering (+8.1% since the May 5 buy signal at $168). RSI 53.2, MACD turning positive, +4.6% above 50DMA. The cloud transition is at an inflection: RISE with SAP migrations are accelerating, Joule AI assistant monetization is ramping, and cloud backlog grew 29% YoY in Q1. Below 200-DMA (-19.5%) but recovering — this is recovery momentum, not an extended breakout. Bullish call sweep at $187.5 (Jun 5) confirms institutional positioning.
iShares MSCI Japan ETF provides diversified exposure to Japan’s corporate governance reform story. The Tokyo Stock Exchange’s mandatory ROE improvement program has forced Japanese conglomerates (Toyota, Sony, Keyence, Mitsubishi) to return capital through buybacks and dividends, re-rating equities. EWJ trades at +5.8% above its 50-DMA with RSI 65.7 — strong momentum without overextension. The Bank of Japan’s gradual policy normalization is a tailwind for yen-denominated asset returns. APAC diversification mandate for the portfolio is satisfied here at reasonable cost (stop 3.03%, target 4.2% = 1.5:1 R/R). Note: sharia-tagged false due to ~15% financial sector exposure in the index.
SPDR Gold Trust has pulled back from all-time high territory (~$510+ earlier this year) and is now consolidating in the $400-$415 range, near its 200-DMA ($403). RSI 38.8 — historically oversold for a structurally bull gold market. Gold’s secular bid comes from: (1) central bank reserve diversification away from USD (China, India, Middle East); (2) USD debasement premium; (3) RISK-OFF hedge for a portfolio that has significant tech/equity concentration. This is the lowest-score but most defensive setup in the scan — gold provides insurance when AVGO creates unexpected binary outcomes. June seasonality historically favors gold (5-year avg: +1.8% in June).
| # | Ticker | Name | Region | Strategy | Score | Entry | Stop | TP1 | R/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LLY | Eli Lilly and Company | US | Momentum | 93 | $1072 | $1028 | $1162 | 1:1.5 |
| 2 | TGTX | TG Therapeutics | US | Momentum | 91 | $39 | $37.3 | $44.1 | 1:1.5 |
| 3 | MSFT | Microsoft Corporation | US | Momentum | 92 | $424 | $406 | $461 | 1:1.5 |
| 4 | FCX | Freeport-McMoRan Inc | US | Momentum | 90 | $69.5 | $66.3 | $77.5 | 1:1.5 |
| 5 | TPL | Texas Pacific Land Corporation | US | Pullback | 89 | $395 | $377 | $453.5 | 1:1.5 |
| 6 | COST | Costco Wholesale Corporation | US | Pullback | 88 | $958 | $927 | $1017 | 1:1.5 |
| 7 | AZN | AstraZeneca PLC | EU | Pullback | 87 | $174 | $171 | $184.75 | 1:1.5 |
| 8 | SAP | SAP SE | EU | Momentum | 88 | $178 | $169 | $199 | 1:1.5 |
| 9 | EWJ | iShares MSCI Japan ETF | Asia | Momentum | 86 | $93 | $91.15 | $98.35 | 1:1.5 |
| 10 | GLD | SPDR Gold Trust ETF | ETF | Pullback | 85 | $405 | $396.2 | $427 | 1:1.5 |
| Region | Tickers | Count | Strategies |
|---|---|---|---|
| US | LLY, TGTX, MSFT, FCX, TPL, COST | 6 | Momentum x4, Pullback x2 |
| EU | AZN, SAP | 2 | Pullback x1, Momentum x1 |
| Asia | EWJ | 1 | Momentum x1 |
| ETF | GLD | 1 | Pullback x1 |
| Total | 10 setups | 10 | — |
| Theme | Tickers | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Healthcare Momentum | LLY, TGTX, AZN | LLY GLP-1 leadership; TGTX +9.5% momentum; AZN deeply oversold bounce |
| AVGO Tech Recovery | MSFT, SAP | Buy the AVGO catalyst dip; cloud AI leaders at support |
| Real Asset RISK-ON | FCX, TPL | Copper at 52w high; Permian royalties bouncing from 200DMA |
| Quality Pullback Trio | COST, GLD | COST + GLD at 200DMA support with institutional call/put flow |
| APAC Diversification | EWJ | Japan governance reform; RISK-ON APAC mandatory slot |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Win Rate (3m) | — |
| Avg Win | — |
| Avg Loss | — |
| Profit Factor | — |
| Sharpe (3m) | — |
| Max Drawdown (3m) | — |
| R² | — |
Entry zones are ranges — enter at the open (9:30–9:45 ET) if price falls within range. For EU setups, enter at the London open or early US session ADR price. Stop losses are hard exits, not mental stops. TP1 is the primary profit target: take 50% off at TP1, move stop to breakeven, trail the remainder to TP2. R/R ratios assume entry at the midpoint of the range. Horizon is the expected time to TP1 — if TP1 is not hit within 2× the horizon, reassess.
We compute a composite regime score from 6 components: VIX (sub-20 = 0 = bullish), SPX breadth (above 50/200 DMA), Credit (HYG spread normalization), DXY (weak dollar = bullish for multinationals), Liquidity (Fed balance sheet trend), and TLT (bond market signal). Score range 0–1: 0–0.30 = RISK-ON, 0.30–0.50 = NEUTRAL/Early Risk-Off, 0.50–0.70 = RISK-OFF, >0.70 = DEEP RISK-OFF. The VIX close behavior is the primary confirmation signal.
We run 3 complementary DSL screens: (a) Momentum Expansion: close>sma(close,20) && vol>sma(vol,20)*1.5 && rsi14>50 && rsi14<75, (b) Breakout Squeeze: close>sma(close,50) && atr(14)>atr(28)*1.2, (c) Pullback-to-Support: rsi14<45 && close>sma(close,200) && close<sma(close,50)*1.05. Screened universe: US mega-caps, EU/ADR large-caps, Asian ADRs, and sector ETFs. Short Squeeze is excluded from all screens per protocol established March 20, 2026.
Each setup receives a score 0–100 based on: Technical (40%) — RSI position, MACD signal, SMA alignment, volume vs average; Momentum (30%) — 1-week, 1-month, 3-month price performance; Confluence (20%) — number of independent signals aligned (min 3 required for A+); Catalyst (10%) — identifiable near-term catalyst (earnings, sector rotation, macro event). Only setups scoring ≥85 qualify as A+.
All selected tickers are vetted for dilution risk: no S-3 shelf registrations, ATM programs, PIPE structures, or aggressive underwriter relationships. Short Squeeze permanently excluded. Open-position exclusions applied per current portfolio state.
Final ranking prioritizes: (1) earnings catalyst recency/quality, (2) geopolitical/macro thematic alignment, (3) momentum quality, (4) diversification requirements (min 5 US, 2 EU, 1 Asia, 2 ETF). R/R minimum of 1:1.5 enforced for all setups. Sharia compliance tagged on every setup.
This scanner is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
All setups carry risk. Past performance of the DailyTickers scanner does not guarantee future results. Entry zones, stops, and targets are estimates based on technical analysis and are not guarantees of execution. Market conditions can change rapidly.
Contextual Risk Warning (Thursday, June 4, 2026): AVGO and CRWD earnings (Jun 3 AMC) are the key binary risk for Thursday’s session. An AVGO miss would pressure MSFT and SAP significantly. In that scenario, reduce tech exposure and allow LLY, COST, AZN, GLD and TPL setups to run independently of the tech narrative. EWJ has mild tech exposure via Sony/Keyence but Japan’s domestic macro story provides buffer. Position sizes should be adjusted for the AVGO binary: consider entering MSFT and SAP at 50% size pre-AVGO result, adding the remainder post-confirmation.
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