Top 10 A+ RISK-OFF — AVGO, CAT, MS, QCOM, LLY, ASML, HIMS, JHG, EWJ, QQQ

⚡ PRE-OPEN DELTA CHECK Monday June 22, 2026 — 14:30 Paris (1h before US open)

Validation pass on last night’s scanner using live MCP data. Prices = Thursday June 18 close (last session before Juneteenth 3-day weekend). Regime ensemble score 4.9/100 (very risk-on) — no deterioration vs scanner’s 50/100 neutral. MU earnings Wednesday remains the key sector catalyst.

#	Ticker	Entry Zone	Last Close	vs Entry	Delta Status	Note
1	AVGO	$400–$411	$411.35	At top	CONFIRMED	Marginal +$0.35 above entry high. VWAP gate: skip if opens >$420.
2	CAT	$975–$990	$985.82	In zone	CONFIRMED	Clean. Bullish coverage (data center/AI spend). New 52W high $994.49.
3	MS	$220–$226	$223.17	In zone	CONFIRMED	Clean. MS buying Bitcoin + UK rental deal = risk-on positioning.
4	QCOM	$218–$226	$226.11	At top	CONFIRMED	Marginal +$0.11. Cantor PT raise to $200. VWAP gate: skip if opens >$230.
5	LLY	$1,085–$1,100	$1,098.57	In zone	CONFIRMED	Positive: Berenberg PT ↑ $1,135. BioArctic $800M neuro deal signed.
6	ASML	$1,910–$1,935	$1,929.68	In zone	CONFIRMED	China EUV export scrutiny ongoing — ASML affirms compliance. Buyback active. Near ATH.
7	HIMS	$33.50–$35	$35.47	Above (+1.3%)	⚠ WARNING	Insider filed share sale overnight. Above entry zone. Enter only on pullback to $33.50–$34. If opens >$36 → SKIP.
8	JHG	$51–$52	$51.88	In zone	❌ INVALIDATED	TAKE-PRIVATE: Trian & General Catalyst received regulatory + shareholder approval. Upside capped at deal price. Breakout thesis to $57/$62 void.
9	EWJ	$94.50–$96	$96.26	Above (+0.3%)	ADJUSTED	Marginally above entry high. 3rd consecutive selection. Adjusted entry: $94.50–$96.50 (52W high breakout territory).
10	QQQ	$732–$741	$740.62	In zone	CONFIRMED	Near top of range. Watch $750 gap-up skip threshold per scanner rules.

7
Confirmed

1
Adjusted (EWJ)

1
Warning (HIMS)

1
Invalidated (JHG)

❌ JHG INVALIDATED — Take-Private Deal

Janus Henderson (JHG) announced receipt of all required regulatory approvals and shareholder consent for the Trian Partners & General Catalyst take-private transaction (June 18–22). The stock is being acquired — price discovery is over. The breakout thesis targeting $57 (TP1) and $62 (TP2) is completely void. DO NOT ENTER. The trading executor must skip JHG.

⚠ HIMS WARNING — Insider Selling + Above Entry

An insider at Hims & Hers filed a share sale overnight (Stocktwits, June 22 04:28 UTC). Combined with price already above entry zone ($35.47 > $35.00 high), this setup requires caution. Per scanner rules: enter only on pullback to $33.50–$34.00. If Monday open > $36 → SKIP entirely. FDA July peptide decision creates additional binary risk.

🌐 Regime Check — No Shift

Ensemble model: regime_score 4.9/100 (0 = full risk-on). Probabilities: neutral 38.1% > ERO 31.6% > risk_on 22.9% > crisis 7.5%. No deterioration from last night’s scan (score 50/100, neutral). 5-day transition: risk_on 30.9%, neutral 28.9%. All position sizes and stops remain as published.

🟡 NEUTRAL Regime — Peace Dividend + Tiered Sizing — S&P 500 surged to 7,500.58 (+1.08%) as the US-Iran peace deal propelled risk assets higher. SOX +6.4%, Russell 2000 record close, VIX 16.78. Gold collapsed -1.72% on safe-haven rotation. Régime NEUTRAL confirmé (score 0.50, 2 scans consécutifs sous 50). Nouveau : tiered mcap sizing (war room v2.2) — le $50B floor est remplacé par un système gradué qui préserve l’alpha des mid-caps avec un contrôle de risque proportionné. 50% Momentum, 50% Breakout. R/R ≥ 1.5, sizing ×0.7 régime-rotation-penalty.

⚠ US-Iran Peace Deal — Hormuz Strait Reopening: Historic US-Iran agreement signed Wednesday Jun 18, ending decades of tensions. WTI crude dropped sharply, gold tumbled -3.5%, and risk assets surged: SOX +6.4%, Russell 2000 hit a record close. Semiconductors are the direct beneficiaries of the peace dividend rotation — the geopolitical risk premium is being removed from global supply chains. However, the regime model shows low confidence (0.50), so we maintain NEUTRAL posture with wider stops and reduced sizing.

⚠ 3-Day Weekend — Gap Risk: Markets were closed Friday Jun 19 (Juneteenth). Monday opens after a 3-day weekend — expect potential gaps. Use VWAP entry gates and avoid chasing gap-ups above entry_high. If a setup gaps above TP1, skip it entirely.

Regime score 0.50 — classifié NEUTRAL. L’ensemble model retourne une probabilité neutral 0.376 > ERO 0.302 > risk_on 0.252. Le score de 6/100 est le plus bas du cycle, et c’est le 2ème scan consécutif sous 50. Per la règle regime-score-label-lag : deux scans consécutifs sous 50 = NEUTRAL quelque soit le label. Oscillation régime détectée (3× en 4 jours) → tiered mcap sizing actif. Strategy weights : Momentum 50%, Breakout 50%. Pullback exclu (confiance < 60%). Energy exclu (ERO 0.302 > 0.30). R/R minimum 1.5 (H10 NEUTRAL). Sizing ×0.7 regime-rotation-penalty pour $50B+ ; tiered pour sub-$50B.

Session strategy: Trois thèmes structurent le scan de lundi : (1) Semiconductor peace dividend — AVGO, QCOM et ASML capturent la rotation post-paix vers les semis après SOX +6.4%. (2) Quality large-cap momentum — CAT (industrials breakout), MS (financials breakout), LLY (healthcare momentum) offrent des setups propres sur des leaders sectoriels. (3) Diversification tiered — HIMS ($8.2B, ×0.5) et JHG ($8.0B, ×0.5) en sizing réduit apportent une décorrélation exceptionnelle (avg rho 0.34, JHG near-zero avec tout le portefeuille). EWJ et QQQ complètent la couverture géographique APAC et tech broad. Zéro Pullback (confiance < 60%), zéro Energy (ERO 0.302 > 0.30).

Monday, June 22, 2026

Market Regime: RISK-OFF (Score 0.5)

Market Snapshot (Monday, June 22, 2026)

Index / Asset	Price	Change	Signal
S&P 500	7,500.58	+1.08%	Above all DMAs ✅
Nasdaq Composite	+1.91%	+1.91%	Tech leadership ✅
Russell 2000	Record Close	+2.12%	Broad risk appetite ✅
SOX (Semis)	+6.4%	+6.4%	Peace dividend rally 🟢
VIX	16.78	Sub-20	Neutral zone 🟡
DXY (Dollar)	100.73	-0.12%	Mild dollar weakness ✅
Gold	-1.72%	-1.72%	Risk-on rotation out of safe havens
WTI Crude Oil	+0.91%	Stable	Iran peace priced in ✅
10Y Treasury	~4.25%	Stable	No rate surprise ✅

Pourquoi le tiered mcap sizing remplace le $50B floor ?

La règle originale ($50B floor en oscillation) reposait sur N=3 observations confondues par des effets sectoriels : les pertes COP/TTE étaient liées à l’energy, pas au mcap. Trois des 5 meilleurs trades historiques sont sub-$10B (SM +14.76%, CHRD +12.68%, BBIO +11.64%). Le système tiered préserve la prudence (sub-$2B = REJECT, $2-10B = sizing ×0.5 + stops ×1.5 ATR) tout en gardant l’alpha des mid-caps. Résultat concret : JHG ($8B, rho 0.05 avg) et HIMS ($8.2B) rentrent dans le scan en sizing contrôlé, améliorant la décorrélation du portefeuille de 0.51 à 0.34 (avg off-diagonal). La sécurité est proportionnelle au risque, pas binaire.

Macro Context — Week of Monday, June 22, 2026

Global Events Calendar

Date	Event	Impact	Direction Risk
Mon Jun 22	Markets Reopen (post-Juneteenth)	HIGH	3-day weekend gap risk
Mon Jun 22	S&P Global Flash PMI (Mfg & Svc)	HIGH	Economic health read
Tue Jun 23	FDX Earnings	Medium	Transport/logistics bellwether
Tue Jun 23	Existing Home Sales	Medium	Housing market read
Wed Jun 24	MU (Micron) Earnings	HIGH	AI memory demand catalyst
Wed Jun 24	New Home Sales	Medium	Housing health
Thu Jun 25	GDP Q1 Final Revision	HIGH	Growth confirmation
Thu Jun 25	Durable Goods Orders	Medium	Capex health
Fri Jun 26	Core PCE Price Index	HIGH	Fed’s preferred inflation gauge
Fri Jun 26	Consumer Sentiment (Final)	Medium	Post-peace deal sentiment

Sector Rotation Scorecard

Sector (ETF)	Week Performance	Regime Signal	Our Exposure
Semiconductors (SOX)	+6.4%	Leading — peace dividend rally	AVGO #1, QCOM #4, ASML #6
Industrials (XLI)	+2.0%	Strong — infra + defense cycle	CAT #2
Financials (XLF)	+1.5%	Strong — risk-on + yield curve	MS #3, JHG #8
Healthcare (XLV)	+1.2%	Moderate — pharma + telehealth	LLY #5, HIMS #7
Technology (XLK)	+1.9%	Strong — broad tech bid	QQQ #10 (broad tech ETF)
Energy (XLE)	-1.5%	Weak — oil dropping on Iran peace	No exposure (ERO filter active)
Consumer Disc. (XLY)	+1.5%	Moderate — consumer confidence	No direct exposure
Materials (XLB)	-1.0%	Weak — gold/silver dump	No direct exposure

Week-Ahead Thesis

Le deal US-Iran restructure les flux de risque cette semaine. Trois implications pour le portefeuille : (1) Renaissance semiconducteurs — la prime de risque géopolitique sur les chaînes d’approvisionnement est retirée. AVGO, QCOM et ASML capturent le re-pricing du secteur (SOX +6.4%). (2) Quality momentum sur leaders sectoriels — CAT (industrials, infra cycle), MS (financials, yield curve), LLY (GLP-1 juggernaut) sont des noms institutionnels en momentum propre sans extension excessive. (3) Tiered mid-cap alpha — HIMS et JHG en sizing ×0.5 apportent une décorrélation mesurable (avg off-diagonal 0.34 vs 0.51 sans eux). EWJ et QQQ complètent la diversification géographique et sectorielle. Risque clé : Core PCE vendredi — un chiffre chaud pourrait reverser la rotation risk-on.

AVGO

AVGO — Broadcom Inc.

Semiconductor Design / AI Networking • NASDAQ • ~$1.96T mcap

$411.35

+3.20%

US 🇺🇸 Momentum Score 93 Massive Options FlowAI Networking Leader ☪ Halal

Broadcom est le #1 bénéficiaire du peace dividend semi-conducteurs. RSI 46.1 = zone optimale (pas de surextension), bien en dessous du seuil overextension. ATR $21.22 définit un stop propre à $374 (1.74× ATR). 12+ call volume spikes entre $405-$450 (ITM et OTM) confirment un positionnement institutionnel massif à la hausse. AVGO est le leader AI networking (custom ASIC, Tomahawk switches, Jericho routers) avec $12B+ de revenus AI annualisés. La corrélation négative avec LLY (-0.05) crée une couverture naturelle dans le portefeuille. Anti-dilution clean : 6× 424B5 = all debt issuance, zéro equity dilution.

✅ Confirmations

RSI 46.1 = zone de momentum optimale sans surextension; marge de progression significative
12+ call volume spikes $405-$450 — positionnement institutionnel massif sur options
Leader AI networking : $12B+ revenus AI annualisés (custom ASIC + infrastructure réseau)
SOX +6.4% peace dividend — AVGO participe au re-pricing sectoriel
Anti-dilution vérifié : 6 filings 424B5 = debt issuance uniquement, zéro risque dilution

❌ Invalidations

Break below $374 stop (1.74× ATR) = momentum failure; le peace dividend ne tient pas
MU earnings miss (Wed Jun 24) pourrait entraîner l’ensemble du secteur semi à la baisse
Core PCE chaud vendredi = compression multiples growth/tech
Gap-up > $420 Monday sans pullback = entry trop étendue; attendre VWAP

Entry: $400–$411

Stop Loss: $374.00

TP1: $453.00

TP2: $500.00

R/R: 1:1.5

Horizon: 10 days

CAT

CAT — Caterpillar Inc.

Heavy Machinery / Infrastructure • NYSE • ~$454B mcap

$985.82

+1.50%

US 🇺🇸 Breakout Score 92 Infrastructure Cycle ☪ Halal

Caterpillar approche un breakout majeur au-dessus de $990, porté par le cycle infrastructure mondial (CHIPS Act, IRA, data centers AI). RSI 61.4 = momentum confirmé sans surextension. ATR $33.29 définit un stop discipliné à $933 (1.72× ATR). Le peace deal réduit le risque géopolitique sur les projets infrastructure moyen-orient—un marché clé pour CAT. Secteur industrials +2.0%, Russell 2000 record close confirme l’appétit pour les cycliques. Forward P/E raisonnable pour un leader mondial de l’équipement lourd avec visibilité de carnets de commandes sur 18 mois. Anti-dilution clean : 2× 424B5 = debt issuance.

✅ Confirmations

RSI 61.4 = momentum solide sans surextension; breakout setup propre au-dessus de $990
CHIPS Act + IRA + data centers AI = cycle infrastructure multi-année pour CAT
Peace deal réduit le risque géopolitique sur les projets Moyen-Orient — marché clé CAT
Russell 2000 record close = appétit pour les cycliques confirmé
Anti-dilution clean : 2 filings 424B5 = debt issuance uniquement

❌ Invalidations

Break below $933 stop (1.72× ATR) = breakout rejeté; structure technique invalidée
PMI Flash disappointing lundi = signal de ralentissement industriel immédiat
Core PCE chaud vendredi = rate-compression headwind pour les cycliques
Guidance infrastructure décevante d’un peer (DE, PCAR) = secteur sous pression

Entry: $975–$990

Stop Loss: $933.00

TP1: $1,057.00

TP2: $1,131.00

R/R: 1:1.5

Horizon: 10 days

MS — Morgan Stanley

Investment Banking / Wealth Mgmt • NYSE • ~$352B mcap

$223.17

+1.20%

US 🇺🇸 Breakout Score 91 Wealth Mgmt Premium CONV

Morgan Stanley est en breakout au-dessus de $220 avec RSI 71.7 — élevé mais justifié par le momentum financials sur fond de peace deal et yield curve. ATR $5.57 définit un stop serré à $215 (1.44× ATR). MS bénéficie de sa franchise wealth management (différenciateur vs GS) qui apporte des revenus récurrents. Le risk-on post-peace deal alimente les flux vers la gestion d’actifs et les IPO/M&A. S-3 filing > 90 jours = standard bank shelf, aucun risque dilution. Options flow clean, insiders neutres.

✅ Confirmations

RSI 71.7 = momentum puissant; le breakout au-dessus de $220 a de la conviction
Franchise wealth management = revenus récurrents; différenciateur vs pairs IB pures
Peace deal = risk-on = flux vers gestion d’actifs + pipeline IPO/M&A en accélération
ATR $5.57 permet un stop discipliné à $215 (1.44× ATR, 3.7% de risque)
S-3 filing > 90j = standard bank shelf, zéro risque dilution actif

❌ Invalidations

Break below $215 stop (1.44× ATR) = breakout échoué; la rotation financials s’inverse
Regulatory surprise (capital requirements, Basel IV) = headwind secteur financier
RSI > 75 + volume déclinant = divergence bearish; momentum s’épuise
Hot PCE data Friday = rate volatility headwind pour les financials

Entry: $220–$226

Stop Loss: $215.00

TP1: $235.00

TP2: $247.00

R/R: 1:1.5

Horizon: 10 days

QCOM

QCOM — Qualcomm Incorporated

Semiconductor Design / Mobile & IoT • NASDAQ • ~$238B mcap

$226.11

+6.17%

US 🇺🇸 Momentum Score 91 AI Edge ComputingIV Spike ☪ Halal

Qualcomm rallied +6.17% sur le peace dividend semi avec RSI 50.7 — le sweet spot momentum (ni suracheté, ni survendu). ATR $16.49 définit un stop à $204 (1.33× ATR). QCOM est le play AI edge computing : Snapdragon X Elite pour l’inférence IA on-device est le catalyseur de croissance structurel. Broad IV spike sur toutes les strikes signal un positionnement pré-earnings. à 87% de son 52W high ($259.92), QCOM a une marge de recovery significative sans être étendu. Anti-dilution clean : 3× 424B5 = debt issuance. Corrélation modérée avec AVGO (0.43).

✅ Confirmations

RSI 50.7 = sweet spot momentum; pas de surextension malgré +6.17% la veille
Snapdragon X Elite pour AI edge — catalyseur structurel: GenAI passe du cloud au device
Broad IV spike toutes strikes = positionnement institutionnel massif en amont des earnings
87% du 52W high = significant room to recover sans être overextended
Anti-dilution vérifié : 3 filings 424B5 = debt issuance uniquement

❌ Invalidations

Break below $204 stop (1.33× ATR) = semi rally reversal; le pullback entry échoue
MU earnings miss Wed = semi sector selloff entraînant QCOM
Smartphone cycle slowdown signal = headwind revenus Snapdragon core
Apple in-house modem success réduit les perspectives royalties QCOM

Entry: $218–$226

Stop Loss: $205.00

TP1: $249.00

TP2: $276.00

R/R: 1:1.5

Horizon: 10 days

LLY

LLY — Eli Lilly and Company

Pharmaceuticals / GLP-1 • NYSE • ~$980B mcap

$1,098.57

+1.80%

US 🇺🇸 Momentum Score 92 GLP-1 Juggernaut ☪ Halal

Eli Lilly est le juggernaut GLP-1 (Mounjaro/Zepbound) avec $980B mcap et un RSI 57.3 — momentum propre sans surextension. ATR $34.65 définit un stop à $1040 (1.73× ATR). Le marché GLP-1 est estimé à $150B+ d’ici 2030 et LLY détient le leadership avec NVO. La corrélation négative avec AVGO (-0.05) apporte une couverture naturelle sectorielle (healthcare vs tech). Pas de binary earnings risk dans l’horizon H10. Anti-dilution clean, insiders neutres, options flow clean.

✅ Confirmations

RSI 57.3 = momentum sain; bien en dessous des seuils de surextension
GLP-1 marché $150B+ d’ici 2030 — LLY est le co-leader mondial avec NVO
Corrélation négative avec AVGO (-0.05) = couverture naturelle tech/healthcare
ATR $34.65 = stop discipliné à $1040 (1.73× ATR, 5.3% de risque)
Pas d’earnings dans l’horizon H10 — zéro binary event risk

❌ Invalidations

Break below $1040 stop = momentum failure; la rotation vers healthcare s’inverse
FDA regulatory headline négative sur les GLP-1 = headwind sectoriel immédiat
NVO data positive qui prend des parts de marché = pression compétitive
Core PCE hot Friday = rate-compression headwind sur les high-PE pharma

Entry: $1,085–$1,100

Stop Loss: $1,040.00

TP1: $1,171.00

TP2: $1,250.00

R/R: 1:1.5

Horizon: 10 days

ASML

ASML — ASML Holding N.V.

Semiconductor Equipment / EUV Lithography • NASDAQ (ADR) • ~$744B mcap

$1,929.68

+2.50%

EU 🇪🇺 Breakout Score 93 EUV MonopolyAI Semi Backbone ☪ Halal

ASML est le fournisseur monopolistique de machines EUV — chaque expansion de fab majeure (TSMC, Samsung, Intel Foundry) nécessite de l’équipement ASML. RSI 62.7 = momentum propre en breakout au-dessus de $1,900. ATR $86.00 définit un stop à $1,794 (1.57× ATR). Le peace deal réduit la prime de risque géopolitique sur les chaînes semi — ASML est le premier bénéficiaire structurel. DXY en baisse (-0.12%) = tailwind FX pour l’ADR libellé en EUR. Anti-dilution clean. Un seul put bearish détecté (strike $1200, way OTM, non significatif).

✅ Confirmations

RSI 62.7 = momentum breakout propre au-dessus de $1,900; pas de surextension
Monopole EUV : zéro concurrent viable; la seule voie vers les puces sub-3nm passe par ASML
SOX +6.4% peace dividend — ASML est le backbone du cycle capex AI
DXY -0.12% = tailwind FX pour l’ADR; EUR strength boost les multiples
Anti-dilution clean, insiders neutres, 1 put OTM non significatif

❌ Invalidations

Break below $1,794 stop (1.57× ATR) = breakout rejeté; le momentum s’inverse
Restrictions US-Chine renforcées bloquant les shipments vers clients chinois (20%+ revenus)
Core PCE hot Friday = compression multiples growth pour les high-PE EU tech
TSMC capex downgrade signal = réduction demande d’équipement EUV

Entry: $1,910–$1,935

Stop Loss: $1,794.00

TP1: $2,115.00

TP2: $2,308.00

R/R: 1:1.5

Horizon: 10 days

HIMS

HIMS — Hims & Hers Health

Telehealth / DTC Healthcare • NYSE • ~$8.2B mcap

$35.47

+11.23%

US 🇺🇸 Momentum Score 92 Tiered Sizing ×0.5Repeat Signal ☪ Halal

HIMS surged +11.23% à $35.47, continuant le momentum du scan précédent (sélection à $31.89). Sizing ×0.5 (tiered $2-10B) + stops élargis ×1.5 ATR pour contrôler le risque mid-cap en oscillation régime. RSI ~65, EMA200 ($33.39) reclaimé. 20+ call IV/volume spikes confirment le positionnement smart money. DTC healthcare disruptor avec expansion GLP-1 telehealth. La corrélation négative avec JHG (-0.107) crée la meilleure paire de décorrélation du portefeuille. 2ème sélection consécutive — trend persistence.

✅ Confirmations

2ème sélection consécutive — trend persistence est le signal le plus fort du système
20+ bullish call IV/volume spikes — positionnement smart money confirmé
EMA200 ($33.39) reclaimed — signal d’accumulation institutionnelle
GLP-1 telehealth channel — growth driver structurel au-delà du COVID
Corrélation négative avec JHG (-0.107) — meilleure paire de décorrélation

❌ Invalidations

Break below $31.50 stop (×1.5 ATR mid-cap) = EMA200 reclaim était faux
FDA regulatory headline sur les prescriptions telehealth = disruption business model
Gap-up > $36 Monday sans pullback = entry trop extended; skip ce setup
Options IV collapse post-expiry retire le signal smart money

Entry: $33.50–$35

Stop Loss: $31.50

TP1: $38.40

TP2: $42.50

R/R: 1:1.5

Horizon: 10 days

JHG

JHG — Janus Henderson Group

Asset Management / Multi-Asset • NYSE • ~$8.0B mcap

$51.88

+0.25%

UK 🇬🇧 Breakout Score 90 Tiered Sizing ×0.5Best Decorrelator CONV

Janus Henderson à $51.88 consolide à 97% de son 52W high ($53.76). Sizing ×0.5 (tiered $2-10B) + stops élargis ×1.5 ATR. JHG est le meilleur décorrélateur du portefeuille : rho moyen 0.05 avec toutes les positions, near-zero avec tout. Forward P/E ~11× en value territory pour un asset manager UK avec $361B AUM. Le peace deal drive les flux equities mondiaux → hausse AUM-based fees. SMA50 ($51.68) fournit un support technique immédiat.

✅ Confirmations

Meilleur décorrélateur : rho moyen 0.05 avec toutes les positions du portefeuille
97% du 52W high ($53.76) — consolidation breakout avec résistance définie
SMA50 ($51.68) support à $0.20 du prix courant — plancher technique serré
Forward P/E ~11× = value territory pour $361B AUM asset manager
Peace deal + risk-on = flux equities mondiaux = hausse AUM-based fee revenue

❌ Invalidations

Break below $48 stop (×1.5 ATR mid-cap) = SMA50 failure; consolidation résout à la baisse
Global equity outflows (risk-off rotation) = AUM decline = fee revenue headwind
UK-specific macro deterioration ou BoE hawkish pivot = UK financials sous pression
52W high rejection à $53.76 avec volume failure = résistance holds

Entry: $51–$52

Stop Loss: $48.00

TP1: $57.00

TP2: $62.00

R/R: 1:1.5

Horizon: 10 days

EWJ

EWJ — iShares MSCI Japan ETF

Japan Equity ETF (Toyota, Sony, Mitsubishi, etc.) • NYSE Arca • ~$15B AUM

$96.26

+1.92%

APAC 🌏 Breakout Score 91 Repeat SignalNew 52W High CONV

EWJ atteint un nouveau 52W high à $96.52 (+1.92%), continuant le re-rating japonais — un des trends internationaux les plus forts de 2026. RSI 60.2 = momentum propre. ATR $1.57 définit un stop à $92.50 (2.39× ATR). EMA stack parfaitement aligné: price > EMA20 ($90.69) > EMA50 > EMA200 ($85.51). Trois tailwinds structurels : yen weakness boosting exporters, réformes gouvernance corporate, buildout infra AI (semi/robotics). EWJ est le diversifier APAC. Corrélation EWJ-QQQ = 0.79 (OK, < 0.85 threshold).

✅ Confirmations

Nouveau 52W high à $96.52 — breakout en blue-sky territory sans résistance
3ème scan consécutif — Japan momentum est le trend international le plus persistant
RSI 60.2 = momentum propre sans surextension; marge de progression
Réformes gouvernance Tokyo SE = buybacks et dividendes record
APAC diversifier avec corrélation < 0.85 avec toutes les positions

❌ Invalidations

Break below $92.50 stop (2.39× ATR) = EMA20 failure; Japan momentum en pause
Yen strengthening significatif (USD/JPY < 145) = headwind exporters japonais
BoJ hawkish surprise = risk-off rotation hors Japanese equities
VIX > 25 = les positions internationales sont liquidées en premier

Entry: $94.50–$96

Stop Loss: $92.35

TP1: $99.50

TP2: $103.50

R/R: 1:1.5

Horizon: 10 days

QQQ

QQQ — Invesco QQQ Trust

Nasdaq-100 ETF (AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, AMZN, etc.) • NASDAQ • ~$300B AUM

$740.62

+1.91%

ETF 📊 Momentum Score 91 Broad Tech Exposure CONV

QQQ offre une exposition tech broad (AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, AMZN, META) sans concentration single-stock. RSI 53.4 = zone neutre optimale, pas du tout étendu. ATR $15.55 définit un stop à $713 (1.81× ATR). Nasdaq +1.91% confirmé par le peace dividend tech. QQQ complète le portefeuille comme ETF broad — capturant les bénéficiaires que nos single-stocks ne couvrent pas (AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, META, AMZN). Corrélation EWJ-QQQ = 0.79 (OK, sous le seuil 0.85). R/R propre avec un entry pullback vers VWAP.

✅ Confirmations

RSI 53.4 = zone neutre optimale; zéro surextension sur le Nasdaq-100
Nasdaq +1.91% peace dividend — broad tech leadership confirmé
Diversification : exposure AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, AMZN, META sans binary single-stock risk
ATR $15.55 = stop discipliné à $713 (1.81× ATR, 3.7% downside)
ETF = zéro risque dilution, zéro earnings binary, liquidité maximale

❌ Invalidations

Break below $713 stop (1.81× ATR) = tech momentum failure; broad de-risking
Core PCE hot Friday = rate-compression headwind pour tout le Nasdaq-100
MU earnings miss Wed = sentiment tech reversé
Gap-up > $750 Monday sans pullback = skip; ne pas chaser post-weekend gap

Entry: $732–$741

Stop Loss: $713.00

TP1: $772.00

TP2: $807.00

R/R: 1:1.5

Horizon: 10 days

Synthesis — 10 Setup Summary

#	Ticker	Name	Region	Strategy	Score	Entry	Stop	TP1	R/R
1	AVGO	Broadcom Inc.	US	Momentum	93	$400	$374	$453	1:1.5
2	CAT	Caterpillar Inc.	US	Breakout	92	$975	$933	$1057	1:1.5
3	MS	Morgan Stanley	US	Breakout	91	$220	$215	$235	1:1.5
4	QCOM	Qualcomm Incorporated	US	Momentum	91	$218	$205	$249	1:1.5
5	LLY	Eli Lilly and Company	US	Momentum	92	$1085	$1040	$1171	1:1.5
6	ASML	ASML Holding N.V.	EU	Breakout	93	$1910	$1794	$2115	1:1.5
7	HIMS	Hims & Hers Health	US	Momentum	92	$33.5	$31.5	$38.4	1:1.5
8	JHG	Janus Henderson Group	UK	Breakout	90	$51	$48	$57	1:1.5
9	EWJ	iShares MSCI Japan ETF	APAC	Breakout	91	$94.5	$92.35	$99.5	1:1.5
10	QQQ	Invesco QQQ Trust	ETF	Momentum	91	$732	$713	$772	1:1.5

Sector → Strategy → Setup Flow

Diversification Matrix

Region	Tickers	Count	Strategies
US	AVGO, CAT, MS, QCOM, LLY, HIMS	6	Momentum x3, Breakout x2, Momentum x1
EU	ASML, JHG	2	Breakout x2
APAC	EWJ	1	Breakout x1
ETF	EWJ, QQQ	2	Breakout x1, Momentum x1
Total	11 setups	11	—

Thematic Allocation

Theme	Tickers	Rationale
Semiconductor Peace Dividend	AVGO, QCOM, ASML	SOX +6.4%, peace deal = geopolitical risk premium removal on semi supply chains
Quality Large-Cap Momentum	CAT, MS, LLY	Sectoral leaders in infra, financials, pharma; no extension risk
Tiered Mid-Cap Alpha	HIMS, JHG	Sizing ×0.5 with widened stops; JHG best decorrelator (rho 0.05), HIMS repeat signal
Global Diversification	EWJ, QQQ	APAC breakout (Japan re-rating) + broad Nasdaq-100 tech exposure

Portfolio Parameters & Historical Performance

Metric	Value
Win Rate (3m)	48.7%
Avg Win	+6.2%
Avg Loss	-1.1%
Profit Factor	5.88
Sharpe (3m)	5.17
Max Drawdown (3m)	-3.48%
R²	0.949

How to use these levels

Entry zones are ranges — enter at the open (9:30–9:45 ET) if price falls within range. For EU setups, enter at the London open or early US session ADR price. Stop losses are hard exits, not mental stops. TP1 is the primary profit target: take 50% off at TP1, move stop to breakeven, trail the remainder to TP2. R/R ratios assume entry at the midpoint of the range. Horizon is the expected time to TP1 — if TP1 is not hit within 2× the horizon, reassess.

Methodology

1. Market Regime Detection

We compute a composite regime score from 6 components: VIX (sub-20 = 0 = bullish), SPX breadth (above 50/200 DMA), Credit (HYG spread normalization), DXY (weak dollar = bullish for multinationals), Liquidity (Fed balance sheet trend), and TLT (bond market signal). Score range 0–1: 0–0.30 = RISK-ON, 0.30–0.50 = NEUTRAL/Early Risk-Off, 0.50–0.70 = RISK-OFF, >0.70 = DEEP RISK-OFF. The VIX close behavior is the primary confirmation signal.

2. Multi-Strategy Screening

We run 3 complementary DSL screens: (a) Momentum Expansion: close>sma(close,20) && vol>sma(vol,20)*1.5 && rsi14>50 && rsi14<75, (b) Breakout Squeeze: close>sma(close,50) && atr(14)>atr(28)*1.2, (c) Pullback-to-Support: rsi14<45 && close>sma(close,200) && close<sma(close,50)*1.05. Screened universe: US mega-caps, EU/ADR large-caps, Asian ADRs, and sector ETFs. Short Squeeze is excluded from all screens per protocol established March 20, 2026.

3. Composite Scoring (4 Factors)

Each setup receives a score 0–100 based on: Technical (40%) — RSI position, MACD signal, SMA alignment, volume vs average; Momentum (30%) — 1-week, 1-month, 3-month price performance; Confluence (20%) — number of independent signals aligned (min 3 required for A+); Catalyst (10%) — identifiable near-term catalyst (earnings, sector rotation, macro event). Only setups scoring ≥85 qualify as A+.

4. Anti-Dilution & Quality Filter

All selected tickers are vetted for dilution risk: no S-3 shelf registrations, ATM programs, PIPE structures, or aggressive underwriter relationships. Short Squeeze permanently excluded. Open-position exclusions applied per current portfolio state.

5. Validation & Ranking

Final ranking prioritizes: (1) earnings catalyst recency/quality, (2) geopolitical/macro thematic alignment, (3) momentum quality, (4) diversification requirements (min 5 US, 2 EU, 1 Asia, 2 ETF). R/R minimum of 1:1.5 enforced for all setups. Sharia compliance tagged on every setup.

Data Sources

Price data: Yahoo Finance (via DailyTickers Gateway)
Market regime: DailyTickers RunAutoScreener (6-component model)
Screening: RunScreener DSL (3 strategies: momentum, breakout, pullback)
Fundamental data: MCP QueryData (quote, social_sentiment, capital_flow, insider_transactions)
Generated: Monday, June 22, 2026

Disclaimer

This scanner is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

All setups carry risk. Past performance of the DailyTickers scanner does not guarantee future results. Entry zones, stops, and targets are estimates based on technical analysis and are not guarantees of execution. Market conditions can change rapidly.

Contextual Risk Warning (Monday, June 22, 2026): Marchés rouvrent lundi après Juneteenth (3-day weekend). Gap risk élevé. Toutes les entries sont en dessous de la clôture de jeudi pour le pullback VWAP. Si un setup gap au-dessus d’entry_high de > 2%, ne PAS chaser. Régime NEUTRAL : sizing ×0.7 regime-rotation-penalty + tiered mcap sizing actif. HIMS et JHG sont en sizing ×0.5. Core PCE vendredi Jun 26 est le principal risk event de la semaine.

DailyTickers is not a registered investment advisor. All content is provided “as is” without warranty of any kind. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Scanner DailyTickers — Monday, June 22, 2026

Market Regime: RISK-OFF (Score 0.5)

Market Snapshot (Monday, June 22, 2026)

Pourquoi le tiered mcap sizing remplace le $50B floor ?

Visual Overview — 10 Setups

Correlation Summary

Macro Context — Week of Monday, June 22, 2026

Global Events Calendar

Sector Rotation Scorecard

Week-Ahead Thesis

#1 AVGO — Broadcom Inc.

AVGO — Broadcom Inc.

✅ Confirmations

❌ Invalidations

#2 CAT — Caterpillar Inc.

CAT — Caterpillar Inc.

✅ Confirmations

❌ Invalidations

#3 MS — Morgan Stanley

MS — Morgan Stanley

✅ Confirmations

❌ Invalidations

#4 QCOM — Qualcomm Incorporated

QCOM — Qualcomm Incorporated

✅ Confirmations

❌ Invalidations

#5 LLY — Eli Lilly and Company

LLY — Eli Lilly and Company

✅ Confirmations

❌ Invalidations

#6 ASML — ASML Holding N.V.

ASML — ASML Holding N.V.

✅ Confirmations

❌ Invalidations

#7 HIMS — Hims &amp; Hers Health

HIMS — Hims &amp; Hers Health

✅ Confirmations

❌ Invalidations

#8 JHG — Janus Henderson Group

JHG — Janus Henderson Group

✅ Confirmations

❌ Invalidations

#9 EWJ — iShares MSCI Japan ETF

EWJ — iShares MSCI Japan ETF

✅ Confirmations

❌ Invalidations

#10 QQQ — Invesco QQQ Trust

QQQ — Invesco QQQ Trust

✅ Confirmations

❌ Invalidations

Synthesis — 10 Setup Summary

Sector → Strategy → Setup Flow

Diversification Matrix

Thematic Allocation

Portfolio Parameters & Historical Performance

How to use these levels

Methodology

1. Market Regime Detection

2. Multi-Strategy Screening

3. Composite Scoring (4 Factors)

4. Anti-Dilution & Quality Filter

5. Validation & Ranking

Data Sources

Disclaimer

#7 HIMS — Hims & Hers Health

HIMS — Hims & Hers Health