🟢 RISK-ON Wednesday, July 8, 2026 10 Setups A+ ⚠ Semis-led momentum unwind (Jul 7)

Scanner DailyTickers — Wednesday, July 8, 2026

Top 10 A+ RISK-ON — niveaux vettés MCP, tableaux compacts par stratégie

RISK-ON
Régime
85.3
Score moyen
10
Setups
Momentum + Breakout + Pullback
Dominante
16.45 (sub-20 (+2.0%))
VIX
7,504
SPX
🟢 RISK-ON holds — Tuesday's tape was a semis-led momentum unwind (QQQ −1.85%, Dow only −0.25%) with the 10Y at 4.53% and VIX still sub-20 at 16.45. The regime model prints RISK-ON with a defensiveness score near 3/100 and zero crisis weight. We buy the dip in quality and lean on non-semis momentum.
⚠ Semis-led momentum unwind (Jul 7): Tuesday was a contained but broad pullback — Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) −1.85%, Russell 2000 −0.91%, Dow only −0.25% — as the 10-year yield ticked up to 4.53% and semiconductors (MRVL, MU, QCOM, ADI) took the brunt. VIX rose to 16.45 but stayed sub-20. This reads as a momentum/high-multiple unwind inside an uptrend, not a regime change: the probabilistic model still prints RISK-ON with zero crisis weight. Posture: buy quality pullbacks (CSCO, MTUM, PRY) and lean on non-semis momentum/breakout (S, EXEL, EW, RYAAY, DASH).

The probabilistic regime model reads RISK-ON with current-state confidence 0.58 and a defensiveness score near 3/100 (0 = full risk-on, 100 = crisis), zero early-risk-off / crisis weight at the 5-day horizon. The auto-adaptive engine confirms a regime_score of 0.81 with component reads: credit 1.00 (spreads tight), DXY 0.90, SPX breadth 0.82, VIX 0.82 (sub-20), liquidity 0.50, TLT 0.47. Strategy weights this session: Momentum 40%, Breakout 25%, Pullback 20%, Pre-Squeeze 10%.

Stratégie de séance : Three angles for Wednesday: (1) Buy-the-dip quality — CSCO and PRY pulling back to the 50-DMA, MTUM resting on its; (2) Non-semis momentum — S (cyber), EXEL (oncology, PE ~14), SE (SE-Asia platform) all in trend without semis exposure; (3) Breakouts on relative strength — EW at 52-week highs, RYAAY (cleanest EU breakout, PE ~12.5), DASH continuation. We avoid fresh semis longs after the ATR blow-out and keep the composite momentum-tilted per the risk-on regime.

Wednesday, July 8, 2026

Régime de marché : RISK-ON (Score 0.81)

The probabilistic regime model reads RISK-ON with current-state confidence 0.58 and a defensiveness score near 3/100 (0 = full risk-on, 100 = crisis), zero early-risk-off / crisis weight at the 5-day horizon. The auto-adaptive engine confirms a regime_score of 0.81 with component reads: credit 1.00 (spreads tight), DXY 0.90, SPX breadth 0.82, VIX 0.82 (sub-20), liquidity 0.50, TLT 0.47. Strategy weights this session: Momentum 40%, Breakout 25%, Pullback 20%, Pre-Squeeze 10%.

Market Snapshot (Wednesday, July 8, 2026)

Indice / ActifPrixVariationSignal
S&P 500 (SPY)$747.71-0.48%Above 50 & 200 DMA ✅
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)$709.43-1.85%Semis-led pullback ⚠
Dow Jones52,925-0.25%Near 52wk high, resilient ✅
Russell 2000 (IWM)$296.19-0.91%Above 50-DMA ✅
VIX16.45+2.0%Sub-20, RISK-ON 🟢
WTI Crude$72.04+2.3%Tailwind for RYAAY fuel cost
Gold (GLD)$377.49-1.21%Safe-haven bid fading
10Y Treasury4.53%+5bpGrowth-multiple headwind ⚠
DXY100.99flatRange-bound

Why still RISK-ON after a −1.85% Nasdaq day?

A single down session — even a sharp one in one sector — is not a regime change. The signals we track are structural, not intraday: credit spreads stayed tight (component 1.00), the VIX rose but closed sub-20, and the S&P held both its 50- and 200-day moving averages. What actually happened Tuesday was concentrated: semiconductors (the highest-beta, most-extended group) gave back gains as the 10-year yield pushed to 4.53%, which mechanically pressures high-multiple growth. The Dow — value-heavy — fell only 0.25%. That divergence tells you it was a rotation and a de-risking of the most stretched names, not broad fear. The correct response is to lean into the pullback in quality (CSCO, MTUM, PRY resetting to support) and hold momentum in groups that are not semis, rather than chase the falling knives or flip defensive.

Contexte macro — semaine du Wednesday, July 8, 2026

Calendrier des événements

DateEventImpactDirection Risk
Wed Jul 810Y Note auctionMediumYields at 4.53% — watch demand
Thu Jul 9PEP Q2 Earnings (BMO)MediumConsumer-staples read
Thu Jul 9Jobless ClaimsLow-MedLabor resilience
Fri Jul 10DAL Q2 Earnings (BMO)MediumAirlines demand read (RYAAY adjacent)
Mon Jul 20RYAAY Fiscal Q1HIGHPosition horizon trimmed to 8d
Thu Jul 23EW Q2 EarningsHIGHBinary event — reduce into it
Tue Jul 14Bank earnings wave (JPM/WFC/C/GS)HIGHFinancials sector tone
Wed Jul 15ASML Q2 + US CPIHIGHSemis + inflation read

Rotation sectorielle

Sector (ETF)Week PerformanceRegime SignalOur Exposure
Semiconductors (SMH)-3.8%Laggard — ATR blow-out, avoid fresh longsNone direct (CSCO networking instead)
Software (IGV)mixedRelative strength ex-semisS, GTLB
Healthcare (XLV)+Defensive bid + breakoutsEW, EXEL
Industrials (XLI)flatElectrification backlogPRY
Consumer Disc. (XLY)mixedDASH breakout despite tapeDASH, SE
Airlines (JETS)+Fuel tailwind + fare recoveryRYAAY
Financials (XLF)flatPre-earnings; avoided this scanNone (earnings risk Jul 14)
Utilities (XLU)-Rate-sensitive laggardExcluded (RISK-ON)

Thèse de la semaine

The tape is doing exactly what a healthy risk-on uptrend does when it gets extended: it rotates rather than reverses. Tuesday's damage was concentrated in the semiconductor complex — MRVL, MU, QCOM, ADI, ARM all down 4-9% — as the 10-year backed up to 4.53% and the highest-multiple, most-extended names took profits. Breadth held better than the cap-weighted Nasdaq (Dow −0.25%, small-caps −0.91%), credit stayed tight, and volatility remained sub-20. That is a rotation signature. Our selection leans into it three ways: quality pullbacks that just reset to the 50-DMA (CSCO, PRY, MTUM), non-semis momentum where trend is intact and valuation is not stretched (S, EXEL at PE 14, SE off depressed levels), and relative-strength breakouts (EW at 52-week highs, RYAAY as the cleanest European setup at PE 12.5, DASH continuing its base breakout). We deliberately avoid fresh semiconductor longs after the ATR expansion — their stop bands no longer fit the 3-8% discipline — and we sidestep financials into the Jul 14 bank-earnings wave.

Signaux du jour — 10 setups par stratégie

Niveaux (entrée, stop, TP, R/R) calculés et vérifiés via MCP sur les données de séance. Les setups momentum/breakout jugés faibles (R/R non actionnable, entrée trop étendue) ont été retirés. Prendre 50% à TP1 puis stop au point mort.

Momentum — tendance établie, cassure de plus-hauts

TickerSetupEntréeStopTPR/R
S ☪Endpoint / AI Cybersecurity • NYSE • ~$6.2B mcap18.0516.9320.011.5
GTLB ☪DevSecOps Platform / Software • NASDAQ • ~$5.5B mcap32.3930.1636.361.55
SE CONVE-commerce / Gaming / FinTech • NYSE (ADR) • ~$64B mcap103.697.24115.061.55
EXEL ☪Oncology / Biopharma • NASDAQ • ~$14B mcap56.7454.6460.861.55
S — Confirmations / Invalidations

✅ Confirmations

  • Price ~12% above a rising 50-DMA (16.19), RSI ~69 without being overbought
  • Enterprise value below market cap — net-cash balance sheet, no financing overhang
  • AI-endpoint and cloud-security demand re-accelerating ARR
  • No earnings until Aug 27 — clean technical window

❌ Invalidations

  • Break below 16.85 (stop) voids the momentum leg
  • A broad software de-rating on the 10Y pushing back toward 4.7%
  • Loss of the 50-DMA on volume = trend failure
  • Competitive pricing pressure from CRWD/PANW flagged in channel checks
GTLB — Confirmations / Invalidations

✅ Confirmations

  • Momentum resuming toward the 200-DMA (33.4) after a multi-week base
  • Forward PE ~32 with net cash — growth without leverage risk
  • AI code-assist (Duo) attach rate driving seat expansion
  • Earnings clear until Sep 2 — no binary event in the window

❌ Invalidations

  • Break below 30.16 (stop) = failed reclaim
  • Software multiple compression if yields keep rising
  • Below the 50-DMA (27.2) would reset the thesis
  • Enterprise IT budget softness in the next print
SE — Confirmations / Invalidations

✅ Confirmations

  • Momentum recovery ~16% above the 50-DMA off deeply depressed levels
  • Shopee GMV re-acceleration + SeaMoney profitability inflection
  • Net-cash balance sheet funding the growth flywheel
  • Earnings not until Aug 11

❌ Invalidations

  • Not Sharia-compliant (fintech lending + gaming) — excluded from Halal sleeve
  • Break below 97.24 (stop) = failed recovery
  • Southeast-Asia FX / regulatory headwinds
  • Competition re-intensifying in Shopee core markets
EXEL — Confirmations / Invalidations

✅ Confirmations

  • Breaking to a new 52-week high (57.57) on a beat-and-raise trajectory
  • Forward PE ~14 — rare value + momentum overlap
  • Cabozantinib franchise + zanzalintinib pipeline optionality
  • Net cash; earnings not until Aug 4

❌ Invalidations

  • Break below 54.64 (stop) rejects the breakout
  • A pipeline/trial readout disappointment
  • Biotech risk-off on rate pressure
  • Generic/competitive threat to the cabo franchise

Breakout — sortie de base / gap sur volume

TickerSetupEntréeStopTPR/R
DASH ☪Local Commerce / Delivery • NASDAQ • ~$85B mcap194.55183.69213.771.5
EW ☪Structural Heart / MedTech • NYSE • ~$54B mcap94.2591.03100.621.53
RYAAY ☪Low-Cost Airline • NASDAQ (ADR) • ~$34B mcap65.9563.770.591.6
DASH — Confirmations / Invalidations

✅ Confirmations

  • Breakout continuation +3.9% on the session with above-average volume
  • Ads take-rate + new verticals (grocery, retail) lifting margins
  • Net cash; ~90 points of room below the prior 285 high
  • Earnings not until Aug 5 — momentum can run first

❌ Invalidations

  • Break below 183.69 (stop) = failed breakout
  • Consumer-spend slowdown hitting order frequency
  • A risk-off flip dragging high-beta consumer names
  • Gap-fill back into the base on heavy volume
EW — Confirmations / Invalidations

✅ Confirmations

  • Pressing the 52-week high (96.29) — breakout on relative strength
  • TAVR + structural-heart franchise with durable growth
  • Net cash, low beta — held up while risk assets sold
  • Defensive quality bid if volatility persists

❌ Invalidations

  • Earnings Jul 23 — binary event caps the swing window; reduce into it
  • Break below 91.03 (stop) rejects the breakout
  • A device-approval or trial setback
  • Rotation out of defensives if risk-on broadens
RYAAY — Confirmations / Invalidations

✅ Confirmations

  • Breaking to fresh highs — cleanest EU breakout in the pool
  • Forward PE ~12.5, net cash, record summer traffic + fare recovery
  • Fuel tailwind as WTI sits near $72
  • Structural cost advantage over legacy carriers

❌ Invalidations

  • Fiscal-Q1 earnings Jul 20 — horizon trimmed to 8d; exit before if unresolved
  • Break below 63.71 (stop) rejects the breakout
  • An oil spike reversing the fuel tailwind
  • European travel-demand or ATC-strike disruption

Pullback — repli technique dans un uptrend intact

TickerSetupEntréeStopTPR/R
CSCO ☪Networking / AI Infrastructure • NASDAQ • ~$449B mcap111.6106.51121.61.62
PRY.MI ☪Cables / Grid Infrastructure • Borsa Italiana • ~$39B mcap133.59125.6148.041.55
MTUM ☪US Momentum-Factor ETF • NYSE Arca • equity-only308.4292.9336.31.5
CSCO — Confirmations / Invalidations

✅ Confirmations

  • Textbook pullback to the 50-DMA (111) inside a primary uptrend, RSI ~43 reset
  • AI-networking order backlog + Splunk cross-sell
  • Net cash and a ~2.5% dividend cushion the drawdown
  • Low-beta quality — the ballast pick in a semis wobble

❌ Invalidations

  • Break below 106.51 (stop) breaks the pullback structure
  • Loss of the 50-DMA on volume = deeper correction
  • Weak enterprise-networking guide at the Aug 12 print
  • Broad tech risk-off overriding the defensive tilt
PRY.MI — Confirmations / Invalidations

✅ Confirmations

  • Pullback toward the 50-DMA, holding well above the rising 200-DMA (107)
  • Electrification + data-center power capex backlog
  • Grid-upgrade cycle across the US and EU underpins orders
  • Earnings Jul 30 — outside the near-term window

❌ Invalidations

  • Break below 125.50 (stop) = deeper correction
  • Order-intake slowdown in the next update
  • Copper/input-cost spike squeezing margins
  • A cyclical risk-off hitting industrials
MTUM — Confirmations / Invalidations

✅ Confirmations

  • Resting on its 50-DMA (310) after a shallow -4% dip from the 20-DMA
  • Diversified re-engagement of risk-on breadth without single-name gap risk
  • Equity-only, no leverage — Sharia-eligible factor exposure
  • Rebalances into leadership as the tape recovers

❌ Invalidations

  • Break below 292.90 (stop) signals a broader momentum unwind
  • A regime flip to early-risk-off (watch VIX > 20)
  • Rate shock (10Y toward 4.7%) compressing growth factors
  • Breadth deterioration below the 50-DMA on volume

Comment utiliser ces niveaux

Entrée = zone d'exécution à l'ouverture (9h30–9h45 ET) si le prix s'y trouve. Le stop est un ordre dur, pas mental. TP = objectif principal : prendre 50% à l'objectif, remonter le stop au point mort, laisser courir le reste. Le R/R suppose une entrée au niveau indiqué. R/R minimum retenu : 1:1.3.

Méthodologie

1. Détection du régime

Score composite sur 6 composantes (VIX, largeur SPX, crédit HYG, DXY, liquidité Fed, TLT). 0–0,30 = RISK-ON, 0,30–0,50 = NEUTRAL/Early Risk-Off, 0,50–0,70 = RISK-OFF, >0,70 = DEEP RISK-OFF.

2. Screening multi-stratégie

Trois filtres DSL complémentaires : Momentum (tendance + volume), Breakout (sortie de base / gap volume), Pullback (repli vers support dans un uptrend intact). Short Squeeze exclu depuis le 20 mars 2026.

3. Scoring composite (4 facteurs)

Technique (40%), Momentum (30%), Confluence (20% — min. 3 signaux alignés pour A+), Catalyseur (10%). Seuls les setups ≥85 qualifient A+.

4. Niveaux réels vettés MCP

Entrée / stop / TP / R/R calculés sur les données de séance réelles (plus-bas de cassure, résistances 52 sem., extensions mesurées). Les setups à R/R non actionnable ou entrée trop étendue au-dessus de l'EMA20 sont retirés du pool.

5. Anti-dilution & ranking

Vérification SEC (pas de S-3 récent, ATM, PIPE, underwriter agressif). Diversification secteur/géographie. R/R minimum 1:1.3. Conformité Sharia taggée sur chaque ligne.

Sources de données

  • Prix & niveaux : DailyTickers Gateway (MCP QueryData)
  • Régime : RunAutoScreener (modèle 6 composantes)
  • Screening : RunScreener DSL (momentum, breakout, pullback)
  • Généré : Wednesday, July 8, 2026

Disclaimer

Ce scanner est fourni à titre informatif et éducatif uniquement. Il ne constitue pas un conseil financier ni une recommandation d'achat ou de vente.

Tous les setups comportent un risque. Les performances passées du scanner ne préjugent pas des résultats futurs. Les zones d'entrée, stops et objectifs sont des estimations basées sur l'analyse technique.

Contextual Risk Warning (Wednesday, July 8, 2026): Tuesday's semis unwind is the live risk. If the 10-year pushes toward 4.7% or VIX breaks above 20, high-beta names (S, EXEL, SE, DASH) face multiple compression and should be trimmed. RYAAY carries a fiscal-Q1 earnings event on Jul 20 (horizon capped at 8 days) and EW reports Jul 23 — both are binary; reduce into the prints. The semiconductor group is intentionally excluded from fresh longs this session.

DailyTickers n'est pas un conseiller en investissement enregistré. Consultez toujours un professionnel qualifié avant toute décision.

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