Performance Dashboard
Covering 4 scans from April 18 to April 24, 2026. The week opened under Risk-On conditions (Apr 18, regimeScore 48) before pivoting firmly to Early Risk-Off for the remaining three sessions (Apr 22–24, regimeScores 57–60). Only 8 of 40 setups are resolved (20%), making this grade heavily provisional. Among resolved positions: 4 TP hits (AMD ×2, SOXX, QCOM) vs 4 stops (INFY, FCX, LLY, DE). The Apr 18 Risk-On scan was the standout performer, delivering 3 of the 4 TP hits including AMD +14.1% to TP2. Grade B* reflects a 50% HR on resolved positions and an estimated +2% portfolio return driven by unrealized gains in AMD, SOXX, and CAT.
Pillar 1 — Setup Quality (50%)
TP1 Hit Rate on resolved: 4 TP / (4 TP + 4 SL) = 50.0%
Score: 4 (B) — 50% sits at the B threshold (40–50%). All 4 TP hits came from the Apr 18 Risk-On scan (AMD TP2, SOXX TP2, QCOM TP1) plus AMD again on Apr 24. The 3 Early Risk-Off scans (Apr 22–24) produced zero TP hits so far. Grade is heavily provisional — only 8/40 positions resolved (20%).
Pillar 2 — Portfolio Simulation (50%)
Estimated period return: ~+2% (unrealized gains from AMD, SOXX, CAT offset by stops on INFY, FCX, LLY, DE).
Score: 3–4 (B/C range) — Large number of open positions prevents a definitive Pillar 2 score. AMD Apr 18 (+14.1% TP2) and SOXX (+9.9% TP2) provide meaningful positive carry. Four stops capped downside. Estimated net positive driven by the Apr 18 scan outperformance. Final score pending resolution of 32 open positions.
TP1 Hit Rate (Resolved Positions)
Trade Outcomes (All 40 Setups)
Full Results Table
All 40 setups across 4 scans (Apr 18 & Apr 22–24, 2026). Results based on actual market prices via Yahoo Finance. Current prices as of Apr 24 close.
Per-Scan Results Breakdown
Strategy Analysis
17 Momentum setups, 15 Breakout setups, 8 Pullback setups across the 4 scans. With only 8 positions resolved, strategy-level hit rates remain provisional.
MOMENTUM
AMD was the standout, hitting TP1/TP2 across two separate scan entries (Apr 18 +14.1%, Apr 24 +9.3%). INFY was the sole resolved stop. MSFT, AMZN, AAPL, CAT and AVGO all showing positive unrealized P&L. Momentum remains the dominant strategy — 17 of 40 setups.
BREAKOUT
SOXX (+9.9% TP2) and QCOM (+8.8% TP1) were clean breakout wins from the Risk-On Apr 18 scan. FCX stopped out as copper broke down sharply on macro demand fears. Breakout entries in Early Risk-Off environments (Apr 22–24) have zero TP hits so far — PANW, CRWD, FTNT all underwater but above stops.
PULLBACK
Pullback strategy underperformed this period. INFY (Apr 22) was a false-flag pullback entry — the primary trend was already broken. LLY and DE (Apr 24) failed immediately. This is the inverse of the prior retro where Pullback led at 80% HR. Pullback entries require a healthy primary trend — avoid in Early Risk-Off when sectors are in sustained rotation out.
Strategy Distribution & Hit Rate Comparison
Key Insight: Pullback Strategy Fails in Sustained Early Risk-Off
The prior retro (Apr 13–17) showed Pullback strategy dominating at 80% HR. This week it sits at 0% on resolved positions. The difference? In the prior week, Early Risk-Off was temporary (2 of 5 days), with Risk-On bookending the week. This week, Early Risk-Off persisted for 3 consecutive sessions (Apr 22–24). In a sustained bearish regime, pullback entries catch falling knives rather than temporary dips.
Rule to internalize: Pullback strategy requires a healthy primary trend AND a temporary regime disruption. When Early Risk-Off spans 3+ consecutive sessions, reduce Pullback allocation to ≤1 setup and shift weight toward Momentum in quality mega-caps only.
Top 3 & Flop 3 Picks
The standout winners and losers from resolved positions. 4 TP hits and 4 stops among 8 resolved setups as of Apr 24.
Top 3 Picks
Entry $276 → TP2 $315 hit. AMD was the pick of the week — and of the month. The semiconductor AI cycle reacceleration thesis played out swiftly as data center GPU demand exceeded expectations. AMD's competitive positioning against NVIDIA in inferencing workloads continues to draw institutional flows. Score 90 correctly captured the momentum conviction. Also appeared in the Apr 24 scan (sc=88) where it hit TP1 at +9.3%, confirming the trend's durability.
Entry $405 → TP2 $445 hit. The semiconductor sector ETF breakout from multi-week consolidation proved textbook. SOXX captured the broad semis rally — driven by AMD, QCOM, and NVDA earnings beats — without single-stock concentration risk. The breakout entry above $405 resistance held cleanly through the regime shift to Early Risk-Off, suggesting the semis narrative had fundamental backing beyond the technical setup. TP2 at $445 hit before the regime worsened.
Entry $136 → TP1 $148 hit. QCOM's breakout from the $136 resistance zone was fueled by strong smartphone demand recovery across Asia and continued AI at-the-edge momentum in its Snapdragon chips. The breakout setup was validated by volume expansion and sector tailwind from the broader semi rally. Clean TP1 exit in a single-digit session count. QCOM's current price of $148.85 sits just above TP1, confirming the breakout was genuine rather than a false move.
Flop 3 Picks
Entry $14.10, stopped at $13.20. Infosys failed as an Early Risk-Off pullback entry. Indian IT services firms face a dual headwind: USD weakness reducing repatriated earnings and client discretionary spend cuts in financial services (their largest vertical). The “pullback into support” thesis ignored the fundamental deterioration. Lesson: avoid Indian IT pullbacks during US Early Risk-Off — the correlation to US equity risk appetite is stronger than the technical support level.
Entry $70, stopped below $66.50. Copper and cyclical materials broke down sharply as global growth fears deepened. FCX's breakout above $70 was technically valid but lacked the macro backdrop: Early Risk-Off with tariff concerns and China demand uncertainty are structurally negative for copper demand. Breakout entries in cyclical materials during Early Risk-Off regimes have a low base rate. This setup should have been filtered by the macro context screen.
Entry $915, stopped at $885. Eli Lilly's pullback entry failed as healthcare broadly rotated out amid policy risk noise (drug pricing pressure) and a rising VIX environment that reduced risk appetite for high-multiple names. LLY at a ~40x forward PE is not a defensive healthcare play — it behaves like a growth stock in risk-off periods. Pullback entries on high-multiple growth-pharma names during sustained Early Risk-Off should be avoided. The -3.3% loss was well-managed by the stop placement.
Resolved Picks — P&L Comparison
Portfolio Simulation (Pillar 2)
Estimated period performance based on scanner metrics. With 80% of positions still open, these figures are provisional. Large AMD/SOXX/QCOM gains from Apr 18 provide meaningful positive carry offsetting four stops.
Estimated Period Return by Portfolio Mode
* All mode figures are estimates based on partial resolution (20%). Final values pending full position resolution.
Historical Retrospective Grades
All scanner retrospectives since inception (Feb 2026). This week's B* is provisional, with 80% of positions still open. The A* from the prior week (Apr 13–17) remains the benchmark to beat.
| Period | Grade | Scans | Setups | TP1 HR | Win Rate | Portfolio | Best Pick | Worst Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 10–20 | B+ | 5 | 50 | 55% | 60% | +4.2% | TSLA +14.3% | META -3.1% |
| Feb 20–28 | B | 4 | 40 | 25% | 45% | +1.5% | CHRD +12.7% | SAP -2.8% |
| Mar 2–6 | B | 5 | 50 | 45% | 55% | +4.1% | USO +15.1% | IOT -5.0% |
| Mar 6–13 | B+ | 5 | 50 | 50% | 58% | +5.2% | CVX +7.1% | ATI -2.9% |
| Mar 13–20 | C | 5 | 50 | 42% | 50% | +3.8% | FANG +6.8% | RTX -3.0% |
| Mar 20–27 | B+* | 6 | 60 | 100%* | 50% | +2.1% | CF +11.7% | — |
| Mar 24–Apr 3 | C | 9 | 90 | 9.1% | 50% | +1.59% | CF +7.3% | BTU -7.0% |
| Apr 1–10 | C* | 8 | 80 | 0%* | 50% | +2.43% | BA +8.1% | SHEL -2.1% |
| Apr 13–17 | A* | 5 | 50 | 65.0%* | 65% | +5.26% | CRDO +25.0% | USO -6.59% |
| Apr 18–24 | B* | 4 | 40 | 50.0%* | 50% | ~+2%* | AMD +26.0% | INFY -6.4% |
Cumulative Scanner Performance
Aggregated statistics across all 10 retrospectives (Feb 10 – Apr 24, 2026). 10 retros, 560 total setups tracked. The A* from Apr 13–17 remains the peak grade, while this week's B* is consistent with the long-run B/B+ baseline.
All-Time Top & Worst Picks
Lessons & Improvements
What Worked Well
- AMD conviction across two scan entries validated — AMD appeared in both Apr 18 (sc=90, +14.1% TP2) and Apr 24 (sc=88, +9.3% TP1). The semiconductor AI momentum thesis was correctly identified with high conviction twice. This validates the scoring model's ability to detect persistent momentum setups.
- Apr 18 Risk-On scan was the week's standout (3 TP hits) — When regime was genuinely Risk-On, the scanner delivered: AMD TP2, SOXX TP2, QCOM TP1. Momentum and Breakout strategies aligned perfectly with the regime. Score 88–92 picks all hit their targets.
- SOXX ETF over single-stock semi names — SOXX at +9.9% TP2 provided cleaner exposure to the semis rally than trying to pick the exact winner. ETF breakout setups in confirmed sector momentum provide higher hit rates and lower tail risk.
- Stop placement quality on losers — The four stops (INFY -6.4%, FCX -5.0%, LLY -3.3%, DE -3.7%) were all well-managed. No outsized loss. The stop framework prevented any single trade from becoming a portfolio drag. Maximum single stop was -6.4% (INFY), within the acceptable 8% max threshold.
- Geographic diversification identified EWT opportunity — Taiwan ETF (EWT, Apr 24) is already +5.5% unrealized, benefiting from TSMC earnings strength. Asian tech exposure via ETFs provides diversification without single-stock risk.
What Didn't Work
- Pullback strategy in sustained Early Risk-Off = 0% HR — All 4 stopped/near-stop pullback entries came from the Early Risk-Off sessions (Apr 22–24). The prior week's pullback success (80% HR) was driven by a temporary regime dip with Risk-On bookends. In a multi-day Early Risk-Off stretch, pullback entries on any non-defensive name should be avoided.
- Cyclical Materials breakout (FCX) failed on macro headwinds — FCX's $70 breakout setup was technically sound but macro-context blind. Copper/materials breakouts require China demand growth signals. In an Early Risk-Off + tariff uncertainty environment, materials breakouts fail at a high rate. FCX should have been blocked by a macro-context filter.
- ASML recurring exposure — ASML appears in both Apr 18 and Apr 24 scans (two consecutive retro periods). While both entries are currently positive, this represents sector concentration risk. The scanner should cap ASML at 1 entry per retro period.
- LLY and DE simultaneous stops on Apr 24 — Two pullback stops on the same day signals a selection problem. Both LLY (pharma growth) and DE (industrial machinery) are non-defensive names with high-multiple risk. Entering 2 pullback setups on the same day in Early Risk-Off increased same-day stop correlation.
Adjustments for Next Scans
- Pullback cap in Early Risk-Off: 0–1 setups max — When regime is EARLY RISK-OFF and has persisted for ≥2 consecutive sessions, reduce Pullback allocation to 0–1 setup. Only allow pullback entries in quality defensive names (WMT, COST, MSFT) with primary trend intact. Block pullback entries in cyclicals, growth-pharma, and industrials.
- Add macro-context filter for cyclicals/materials — FCX, XLE, SLB, XLB-type setups require: (a) China PMI > 50, (b) tariff uncertainty index < 60, (c) VIX < 22. If any criterion fails, reduce score by 10 points. This directly addresses the FCX-type failure.
- ASML cooldown: 1 per retro period — ASML appeared in two consecutive retros. Cap ASML at 1 entry per 5-session window, regardless of score. Sector concentration (ASML + SOXX + AMD in the same retro) amplifies semis correlation risk.
- Same-day pullback cap: 1 max — Never enter more than 1 pullback setup on the same scan date in Early Risk-Off. The LLY+DE double-stop on Apr 24 was directly caused by violating this principle. Serial pullback entries on the same day in bearish regime = correlated stop-outs.
- Continue high-score semis bias in Risk-On — AMD (sc=90), SOXX (sc=90), QCOM (sc=88) all delivered. Maintain high allocation to semis/tech in Risk-On regimes. The scoring model correctly identified the best risk-adjusted entries of the week.
Learning of the Week: Regime Persistence Matters More Than Regime Label
Both this week and the prior week contained "Early Risk-Off" sessions — yet pullback strategies delivered 80% HR last week and 0% this week. The key variable is persistence: last week, Early Risk-Off lasted 2 of 5 days (transient). This week, it persisted for 3 of 4 days (structural). A transient Early Risk-Off dip creates excellent pullback opportunities. A structural Early Risk-Off destroys them.
Rule to apply immediately: Before placing a pullback entry, check: "Has Early Risk-Off persisted for ≥2 consecutive sessions?" If yes, reduce pullback weighting to near-zero. The regime direction matters less than whether the regime is temporary or structural.
- Transient Early Risk-Off (1–2 days): Pullback (A) > Momentum (B) > Breakout (B)
- Persistent Early Risk-Off (3+ days): Momentum on mega-caps (B) > Breakout on tech (B) > Pullback (D)
- Risk-On confirmed: Breakout (A+) > Momentum (A) > Pullback (B+)
Disclaimer
This retrospective is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any securities. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The scanner is an algorithmic tool that generates setups based on technical and fundamental data — it is not a trading system and does not account for individual circumstances, risk tolerance, or investment objectives. All data sourced from Yahoo Finance and DailyTickers Gateway. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
* Provisional grade: only 8 of 40 positions (20%) have resolved as of Apr 24, 2026. The three Early Risk-Off scans (Apr 22–24, 30 setups) are almost entirely open. Final grade subject to significant revision as positions resolve over the coming sessions.