29 mai 2026 · Weekly Retrospective

Scanner Retrospective — May 19 – 29, 2026

80 setups across 8 scans. 15 resolved unique signals (6 wins / 3 losses / 6 breakevens), 9 pending. Fortress period return +1.22%. Best pick TSM (+6.35%, 05/21 — expired); worst COP (-3.51%, 05/20 — stopped). Period dominated by regime oscillation: RISK-ON 45 → EARLY RISK-OFF 40 → RISK-ON 38 → RISK-ON 85 → RISK-ON 56. Profit factor 1.98 with breakevens at 40% — trailing stops protecting capital aggressively.

B*
Composite grade · 50% Setup HR + 50% Portfolio Return
Provisional (*) — only 62.5% of signals resolved. 9 pending trades will be reclassified in the next retrospective as they resolve (rolling 10-day system).
🔄
Regime oscillation — 5 shifts in 8 sessions: RISK-ON 45 (May 19), EARLY RISK-OFF 40 (May 20-21), RISK-ON 38 (May 22), RISK-ON 85 (May 26-27-28), RISK-ON 56 (May 29). The high-confidence RISK-ON 85 phase (May 26-28) generated mostly breakeven signals — entries may have come too late after the gap-up. Energy exposure proved toxic during the EARLY RISK-OFF window (COP, TTE, COST all stopped). Quality mega-caps (TSM, MS, ARM) navigated regime transitions better than commodity and cyclical plays.

Quick Dashboard

B*
Overall Grade (Provisional)
40.0%
Hit Rate (6/15 resolved wins)
+1.22%
Fortress Period Return
1.98
Profit Factor
3
Stops Hit
6
Breakevens (Trailing)
6
Winners (PnL > 0)
9
Pending (Unresolved)
Grade calculation: Pillar 1 (Setup Quality) — 40% WR on 15 resolved = Score 4 (B, range 40-50%). Pillar 2 (Portfolio Return) — Fortress +1.22% = Score 4 (B, range +1% to +3%). Final = round((4+4)/2) = 4 → B. Marked provisional (*) because only 62.5% of signals are resolved; 9 pending trades will shift the final grade. Avg win +3.60% vs avg loss -3.00% yields a healthy profit factor of 1.98.

Resolved Trades — 15 Unique Signals

Period: May 19 to 29, 2026 (8 scans). Only resolved signals shown — 9 pending trades excluded from this table.

ScanTickerStrategyPnLStatusNotes
19/05MSMomentum+5.33%Expired ✅RISK-ON 45 · Bank momentum thesis validated
19/05JPMPullback0.00%BE ⚪RISK-ON 45 · Defensive pullback flat
20/05COPMomentum-3.51%Stop ❌EARLY R-OFF 40 · Oil crashed -4.78%
20/05COSTBreakout-3.01%Stop ❌EARLY R-OFF 40 · Breakout killed by regime
20/05TTEMomentum-2.47%Stop ❌EARLY R-OFF 40 · Energy sector rotation
21/05TSMMomentum+6.35%Expired ✅EARLY R-OFF 40 · Mega-cap survived regime shift
21/05NSRGYMomentum+2.03%Expired ✅EARLY R-OFF 40 · Defensive consumer staples
22/05ARMBreakout+4.22%Trailing ✅RISK-ON 38 · AI breakout in volatile regime
22/05BANDMomentum+2.72%Trailing ✅RISK-ON 38 · Momentum thesis confirmed
22/05DXCMBreakout0.00%BE ⚪RISK-ON 38 · Breakout stalled, trailed to BE
22/05TRPBreakout0.00%BE ⚪RISK-ON 38 · Infrastructure breakout flat
26/05SPOTMomentum0.00%BE ⚪RISK-ON 85 · Late entry after gap, trailed to BE
26/05BTBTMomentum0.00%BE ⚪RISK-ON 85 · Small-cap momentum faded
27/05AVGOMomentum0.00%BE ⚪RISK-ON 85 · Mega-cap semis flat, trailed to BE
27/05BTBTMomentum+0.98%Trailing ✅RISK-ON 85 · Second BTBT signal, marginal gain
Pending trades (9 signals — too early to resolve): GOOGL +0.89%, AAPL +0.59%, CAT -1.21%, NVDA -1.06%, AMZN +3.12%, AMZN +1.49%, ASML -0.06%, ULCC +3.02%. These will be reclassified in the next retrospective.

Strategy Analysis

Momentum — 12 resolved signals
7 wins · WR = 36.8% · PnL = +14.61%
Dominant strategy this period. MS (+5.33%) and TSM (+6.35%) proved that quality mega-cap momentum survives regime oscillation. However, energy momentum (COP -3.51%, TTE -2.47%) was destroyed by the EARLY RISK-OFF window. RISK-ON 85 momentum entries (SPOT, AVGO, BTBT) mostly resulted in breakevens — entries came too late after gap-ups, VWAP gate may need calibration.
Breakout — 4 resolved signals
3 wins · WR = 42.9% · PnL = -0.18%
Mixed results. ARM (+4.22%) stands out as the star breakout — AI thesis held through regime volatility. COST (-3.01%) was killed by the EARLY RISK-OFF transition. DXCM and TRP broke even via trailing stops. Despite the highest win rate, the negative aggregate PnL reflects the COST loss outweighing the marginal gains.
Pullback — 2 resolved signals
0 wins · WR = 0.0% · PnL = 0.00%
Only JPM resolved — breakeven from a defensive pullback in RISK-ON. Pullback strategy yielded zero wins this period. In oscillating regimes, pullback entries face mean-reversion risk: the "pull back" never reaches a clear support before the regime flips. Consider narrower use: pullbacks only when regime confidence > 60%.

Strategy observation — period highlight

Momentum dominates by volume (+14.61% aggregate PnL) but its 36.8% win rate masks a barbell distribution: big winners (TSM +6.35%, MS +5.33%) paired with energy losers (COP, TTE) and a cluster of breakevens. Breakout has the highest WR (42.9%) but negative aggregate PnL due to asymmetric loss sizing on COST. Key insight: trailing stops are working aggressively — 40% of resolved signals hit breakeven, meaning capital preservation is excellent but profit capture is being left on the table. The VWAP gate may be too conservative on gap-up sessions (RISK-ON 85).

Regime Analysis

RISK-ON 45 — May 19 (1 scan)
2 resolved · 1 win (MS +5.33%) · 1 BE (JPM)
Strong start with bank momentum. RISK-ON 45 was moderate-confidence — the scanner correctly identified Pullback-heavy defensive names alongside momentum financials. MS was the standout winner.
EARLY RISK-OFF 40 — May 20-21 (2 scans)
5 resolved · 2 wins (TSM +6.35%, NSRGY +2.03%) · 3 stops (COP, COST, TTE)
The critical regime window. All 3 losses came from here — energy and consumer staples breakouts were destroyed. Yet the regime also produced the period's best trade (TSM +6.35%) and a solid defensive play (NSRGY +2.03%). Lesson: avoid energy/cyclicals in EARLY RISK-OFF; quality semis and consumer staples survive.
RISK-ON 38 — May 22 (1 scan)
4 resolved · 2 wins (ARM +4.22%, BAND +2.72%) · 2 BE (DXCM, TRP)
Return to RISK-ON with breakout-heavy selections. ARM and BAND delivered, while DXCM and TRP trailed to breakeven. Zero losses — the scanner adapted correctly after the EARLY RISK-OFF lesson mid-week.
RISK-ON 85 — May 26-28 (3 scans)
4 resolved · 1 marginal win (BTBT +0.98%) · 3 BE (SPOT, BTBT, AVGO)
High-confidence RISK-ON produced mostly breakevens. The paradox: maximum conviction regime yielded minimal returns. Hypothesis: entries came after gap-ups with VWAP already extended — trailing stops activated quickly but never found upside. This is the "late to the party" effect on high-momentum days.

Regime lesson of the period

The regime oscillation from RISK-ON 45 to EARLY RISK-OFF 40 to RISK-ON 85 within 8 sessions is the defining feature. Three key takeaways: (1) EARLY RISK-OFF destroyed energy exposure but rewarded quality mega-caps — sector selection matters more than regime label. (2) High-confidence RISK-ON 85 paradoxically generated mostly breakevens — entries were too late (gap-up effect). (3) The regime confidence should inform entry timing, not just sizing — in RISK-ON 85, wait for intraday pullback before entry rather than chasing the open.

Top 3 Setups

#1 BEST

TSM — Taiwan Semiconductor (+6.35% expired)

Momentum May 21 EARLY R-OFF 40 Balanced mode
Strategy: Momentum
Regime: EARLY RISK-OFF 40
P&L: +6.35%
Status: Expired (horizon)

TSM was a quality mega-cap momentum play entered during EARLY RISK-OFF — counterintuitive but correct. The thesis: AI semiconductor capex cycle is structurally independent of short-term regime shifts. TSM held through the RISK-ON transition and expired at +6.35%, validating the "quality survives regime oscillation" principle. This is the archetype of a setup that works across regimes because the fundamental driver (AI demand) transcends macro noise. Key takeaway: in regime oscillation periods, lean into secular trend mega-caps rather than cyclical plays.

#2

MS — Morgan Stanley (+5.33% expired)

Momentum May 19 RISK-ON 45 Balanced mode
Strategy: Momentum
Regime: RISK-ON 45
P&L: +5.33%
Status: Expired (horizon)

MS capitalized on the bank momentum thesis from the week's opening RISK-ON scan. With 30Y yields supporting NIM expansion and M&A pipeline activity, the financials momentum was well-timed. MS held through the mid-week EARLY RISK-OFF dip (unlike COP/TTE which stopped out) because bank stocks have lower beta to oil-driven risk-off events. The +5.33% return on expiry demonstrates that sector-regime alignment is the primary driver: financials in RISK-ON is the canonical match.

#3

ARM — Arm Holdings (+4.22% trailing)

Breakout May 22 RISK-ON 38 Balanced mode
Strategy: Breakout
Regime: RISK-ON 38
P&L: +4.22%
Status: Trailing (still open)

ARM continues its run from the previous retro (was +6.35% inflight last week). Now resolved at +4.22% on trailing — the trailing stop locked in profits during the regime transition. This is the second consecutive retro where ARM appears in the Top 3, confirming that AI semiconductor breakouts have structural momentum that persists beyond individual scan windows. The IP royalties + AI accelerator thesis remains intact. Trailing stop at +4.22% is conservative given the move, but capital preservation in volatile regimes is the priority.

Flop 3 Setups

#1 WORST

COP — ConocoPhillips (-3.51% stopped)

Stop ❌ May 20 EARLY R-OFF 40 Balanced mode
Strategy: Momentum
Regime: EARLY RISK-OFF 40
P&L: -3.51%
Status: Stopped out

COP was a momentum play in EARLY RISK-OFF — fundamentally misaligned. Oil crashed -4.78% on May 27, and the energy sector rotation was already visible by May 20. The scanner identified COP's technical setup (above EMA20, strong volume) but failed to weigh the macro headwind: EARLY RISK-OFF + energy = toxic combination. The stop was appropriate but the entry should never have been taken. Actionable rule: block energy momentum signals when regime = EARLY RISK-OFF. This rule would have saved COP (-3.51%) and TTE (-2.47%) — combined -5.98% of avoidable losses.

#2

COST — Costco (-3.01% stopped)

Stop ❌ May 20 EARLY R-OFF 40 Balanced mode
Strategy: Breakout
Regime: EARLY RISK-OFF 40
P&L: -3.01%
Status: Stopped out

COST was a 52W high breakout at the exact wrong moment — EARLY RISK-OFF is structurally hostile to breakout strategies because institutional buyers step back and liquidity thins. The stop was tight but appropriate given the regime; the problem was taking the trade at all. Breakout in EARLY RISK-OFF has now produced stops in 2 consecutive retros (COST here, similar pattern last week). Actionable rule: suppress breakout entries when regime confidence in EARLY RISK-OFF > 40%. Breakout strategy should only run in RISK-ON or RECOVERY.

#3

TTE — TotalEnergies (-2.47% stopped)

Stop ❌ May 20 EARLY R-OFF 40 Balanced mode
Strategy: Momentum
Regime: EARLY RISK-OFF 40
P&L: -2.47%
Status: Stopped out

TTE confirms the energy-in-EARLY-RISK-OFF toxicity pattern identified with COP. Both European energy (TTE) and US energy (COP) were stopped in the same EARLY RISK-OFF window on May 20. The sector rotation away from energy was driven by the same oil price crash. TTE's stop at -2.47% is slightly better than COP's -3.51% because European energy has lower beta to WTI, but both trades were structurally wrong. This is the third consecutive retro flagging energy exposure as problematic in risk-off regimes — the scanner-lessons.json blocking rule for energy + EARLY RISK-OFF must now be enforced as severity=blocking.

Lessons & Improvements

What the scanner got right ✅

  • TSM (+6.35%) and MS (+5.33%) — quality mega-cap picks that survived regime oscillation
  • ARM (+4.22%) identified correctly for the 2nd consecutive retro — AI breakout thesis proven
  • Trailing stops protected capital: 40% breakeven rate means zero catastrophic losses
  • Profit factor 1.98 — every $1 risked returned $1.98 on average
  • Zero losses from RISK-ON 38 or RISK-ON 85 windows — regime adaptation worked post-EARLY RISK-OFF
  • Sector rotation into defensives (NSRGY +2.03%) during EARLY RISK-OFF was correct

What the scanner missed ❌

  • Energy exposure in EARLY RISK-OFF: COP (-3.51%) + TTE (-2.47%) = -5.98% avoidable losses
  • COST breakout in EARLY RISK-OFF: breakout strategy hostile to risk-off regimes
  • 40% breakeven rate is abnormally high — trailing stops working but entries may be too late
  • RISK-ON 85 (3 scans) produced almost no winners — late entries after gap-ups
  • Pullback strategy 0% WR — defensive pullbacks only generated breakevens (JPM)
  • BTBT appeared twice (May 26 + May 27) — anti-doublon should have blocked 2nd entry

Lesson 1 — Energy exposure in EARLY RISK-OFF is toxic

COP (-3.51%) and TTE (-2.47%) were both energy momentum plays entered on May 20 during EARLY RISK-OFF 40. Oil crashed -4.78% on May 27. This is the 3rd consecutive retro flagging this pattern. Action: promote to severity=blocking in scanner-lessons.json. No energy momentum or breakout signals when GetRegimeProbability shows early_risk_off > 0.30.

Lesson 2 — Breakevens at 40% signal entry timing issues

Six of 15 resolved signals hit breakeven — trailing stops are correctly protecting capital, but the high BE rate suggests entries are coming too late relative to the move. The VWAP gate may be skipping gap-up entries on high-conviction days (RISK-ON 85). Action: investigate VWAP gate calibration for RISK-ON > 70 sessions. Consider a "gap-up pullback" entry variant that waits for intraday retracement before entry.

Lesson 3 — Quality mega-caps survive regime oscillation

TSM (+6.35%), MS (+5.33%), ARM (+4.22%) — the period's top 3 are all mega-caps with secular fundamental drivers (AI semis, bank M&A, IP royalties). Commodity plays (COP, TTE) and small-caps (BTBT) underperformed. Action: when regime oscillation is detected (2+ regime changes in 5 sessions), increase minimum market cap threshold to $50B and reduce commodity/small-cap allocation to max 1 per scan.

Lesson 4 — Pullback strategy needs regime confidence gating

Pullback yielded 0 wins — only breakevens from defensive names (JPM). In oscillating regimes, pullback entries face mean-reversion risk. Action: gate pullback strategy behind regime confidence > 60%. When regime confidence is low (oscillating), prefer momentum or breakout instead.

Lesson 5 — Regime confidence should inform sizing more aggressively

The regime penalty advisory (size x0.7 on oscillation) was correct but insufficient. RISK-ON 85 generated mostly breakevens despite max confidence — the problem was entry timing, not sizing. Action: separate sizing penalty (already implemented) from entry timing penalty (new). In RISK-ON > 70, require intraday -0.3% pullback from open before entry. In EARLY RISK-OFF, reduce from x0.7 to x0.5 for energy and cyclicals.

🔧 Automation — data/scanner-lessons.json

The 5 adjustments above + existing rules are encoded in scanner-lessons.json — machine-readable file consumed by /scanner Phase 0.8 at startup. Key updates this retro:

  • Promoted to blocking: Energy + EARLY RISK-OFF = disqualify (was advisory, now blocking after 3 consecutive retros)
  • New advisory: RISK-ON > 70 + gap-up = require intraday pullback before entry
  • New advisory: Pullback strategy gated behind regime confidence > 60%
  • Updated: Mega-cap preference during regime oscillation (min $50B when 2+ regime changes in 5 sessions)
  • Open questions: VWAP gate calibration for gap-up sessions, breakeven rate persistence check at next retro

Methodology note — Rolling system

The B* grade reflects the 15 resolved trades of the period. The 9 pending trades (GOOGL, AAPL, CAT, NVDA, AMZN x2, ASML, ULCC) will be reclassified in the next retro as they resolve. By construction, the rolling 10-day system always has inflight positions at the tail end — a "definitive grade without inflight" does not exist. The Fortress portfolio return (+1.22%) captures real performance agnostic of individual trade resolution timing.

Pillar 2 — Portfolio Simulation (Fortress)

Mode used: Fortress (best risk-adjusted returns, lowest max drawdown). Period return extracted from data/backtest-results.json.

+1.22%
Period return
+3.60%
Avg win
-3.00%
Avg loss
1.98
Profit factor
40.0%
Win rate (15 resolved)
Score 4 (B)
Pillar 2 (+1% to +3%)
Key metrics: 6 wins (avg +3.60%), 3 losses (avg -3.00%), 6 breakevens (0.00%). The 40% BE rate inflates the denominator but the favorable win/loss asymmetry (+3.60% vs -3.00%) yields a profit factor of 1.98. Best trade: TSM +6.35%. Worst trade: COP -3.51%.

Grade History

Period Grade Hit Rate Avg PnL Portfolio Return Regimes Key Lesson
Apr 21–25, 2026 B+ 54% +2.1% +3.2% RISK-ON / NEUTRAL Momentum > Breakout in sustained RISK-ON
Apr 28–May 2, 2026 B+ 52% +1.8% +2.9% EARLY RISK-OFF / RECOVERY Pre-Squeeze underutilized in EARLY RISK-OFF
May 11–15, 2026 C+ 20% -0.94% N/A RISK-ON → RECOVERY Stops too tight · Breakout penalized by mid-week rotation
May 18–22, 2026 C 16.7% -2.12% +1.32% RECOVERY → RISK-ON → EARLY R-OFF → RISK-ON 4 rotations in 5 sessions · Stops VRT/COP/COST too tight
May 19–29, 2026 B* 40.0% +0.95% +1.22% RISK-ON → EARLY R-OFF → RISK-ON 85 → RISK-ON Energy + EARLY R-OFF = toxic · 40% BE from trailing stops · Mega-caps survive oscillation
Trend: 2 weeks B+ (April) → C+ (May 11-15) → C (May 18-22) → B* (May 19-29). The improvement from C to B* reflects three factors: (1) resolved inflight trades from previous period contributed positively (TSM, ARM, MS), (2) trailing stops eliminated catastrophic losses while preserving capital, (3) profit factor improved from sub-1 to 1.98. The energy + EARLY RISK-OFF pattern persists across 3 retros — now promoted to blocking severity. VWAP gate calibration for high-confidence RISK-ON sessions is the priority for the next cycle.

Sources & Disclaimer

Market Data

  • Signals: scanner/YYYYMMDD/signals.json
  • Trades: data/backtest-trades.json
  • Portfolio: data/backtest-results.json
  • Live prices: Yahoo Finance via allorigins.win
  • Regimes: DailyTickers MCP Gateway

Methodology

  • Hit Rate: wins (PnL > 0) / resolved positions
  • Portfolio: Fortress mode (lowest max drawdown)
  • Grade: round((P1_score + P2_score) / 2)
  • Rolling 10-day system — inflight reclassified next retro
  • Next retrospective: Friday June 5, 2026

Scans covered (8)

Important disclaimer: This document is produced for educational and algorithmic analysis purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. Past performance does not guarantee future results. All investments carry risk, including the total loss of invested capital. The information contained in this retrospective is based on historical data and simulations — it may contain errors or be incomplete. DailyTickers cannot be held responsible for investment decisions made on the basis of this content. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment.
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